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OECD Indicators Point to Slowdown
AUGUST 8, 2011

LONDON—Most of the world's largest economies are heading for a period of slower growth, and it is increasingly likely that the U.S. will share that fate, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development's composite leading indicators.

The Paris-based think tank Monday said its leading indicator of economic activity in its 34 members fell to 102.2 in June from 102.5 in May, suggesting that economic growth is likely to slow.

"Composite leading indicators...continue pointing to a slowdown in activity in most OECD countries and major non-member economies," the OECD said.

Among developed economies, the OECD said its leading indicators point to slowdowns in Canada, France, Germany, Italy, and the U.K., while among developing economies, the indicators point to slowdowns in Brazil, China and India.

The OECD said its leading indicators increasingly point to slowdowns in the U.S., Japan and Russia.

"Compared to last month's assessment, stronger signs of turning points in growth cycles have emerged in the United States, Japan and Russia," it said.

The leading indicator for the U.S. fell to 103.1 from 103.3, having been unchanged in May. The leading indicator for Japan fell to 103.6 from 103.8.

The OECD's leading indicators are designed to provide early signals of turning points between the pickup and slowdown of economic activity, and are based on a wide variety of data series that have a history of signaling changes in economic activity.

For each economy, a score of 100 marks the long-term trend growth rate. The indicators for Brazil, India and China were below that level in June.

Last month, the OECD reported that developed economies grew at an unchanged 0.5% rate in the first quarter of 2011. The U.S., China and the U.K. have reported slowing growth in the second quarter.




http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... 50882.html