Miranda Sarmento: Privatização da TAP descola "nas próximas semanas"

[migluso]

Provavelmente não apanhei o sentido pleno do texto porque, apesar de serem bons pontos, parece-me algo exagerado o "when I realized that life will never be the same" e o "I never prepared for as I lacked the benefit of experience".

Eu li muito na diagonal, mas parece-me que se estava a referir ao facto de ter constituído família há pouco tempo...

[Automech]

Provavelmente não apanhei o sentido pleno do texto porque, apesar de serem bons pontos, parece-me algo exagerado o "when I realized that life will never be the same" e o "I never prepared for as I lacked the benefit of experience".

[Ulisses Pereira]

"Random Thoughts: Concocting Profits With the Four Primary Metrics of Trading"
By Todd Harrison
May 24, 2011 10:15 am



"There was a moment last night, after I arrived home from the bird fair, as my ESPN i-Phone alerts were silenced, once I cleaned the cat litter and returned to my bedroom to find The Bachelorette on TV, when I realized that life will never be the same.

I’m not complaining; I’ve waited 41 years for my own family and it’s the greatest blessing of my life, but there are certain allowances that, as a living breathing NYC bachelor for the better part of the last twenty years, I never prepared for as I lacked the benefit of experience.

Luckily, when I strap into my turret each morning, there is a calming sense of familiarity that permeates through my eyes, ears, and fingers. I’ve been watching a multitude of screens for those same twenty years and these eyes have seen a lot; in some cases, more than they should have.

The process is relatively stable; I power up, chew through the headlines, check the field position of the indices, subsectors, individual “tells,” and my trading positions, and then attempt to assimilate our four primary metrics, which are fundamentals, technical analysis, structural forces, and psychology.

I know that at any given time, they will assume different weightings of importance as we attempt to concoct the perfect brew of profitability.

If I was to give an elevator pitch on the current state of affairs, in ten seconds or less, I would point to offer the following:


Fundamentals: Better-than-expected on the aggregate vs. expectations, but we need to remember that they’re rear-view and the market is forward-looking.


Technical Analysis: S&P 1340 (former support) is now resistance; the BKX (banks) broke the 200-day with authority yesterday (although BKX 48 should offer some support), and the NDX violated its 50-day and its uptrend yesterday (see the chart below).


Click to enlarge


Structural Forces: Two words -- Credit Markets. Still buff, still a tailwind, but not without two asterisks: 1) equities turned 25% lower before credit blinked in the first phase of the financial crisis and 2) that meaty positive is a “debt sandwich” layered on either side by problematic bread -- the consumer below and sovereigns above.


Psychology: Through the lens of denial, migration, and panic, we’re either in the denial stage of a bear phase (look at the price action of the leaders; Apple (AAPL), Google (GOOG), JP Morgan (JPM), and Goldman Sachs (GS) all share the dubious distinction of lower highs, which is a sign of distribution), or the migration stage of a still-bullish phase. S&P 1340, as discussed above, is an intuitive street sign in that ongoing debate.

The one thing I can share with absolute certainty is the benefit of viewing the forward path through the lens of a probability spectrum. When we talk about “seeing both sides,” we do so to ensure that you’re allowing for the unexpected. Nobody initiates risk with the expectation of losing money, yet it is an inevitable outcome over the course of time.

The trick to the trade is to identify a stylistic approach that works for you, allows you to sleep at night (enjoy the journey), and positions your risk in a manner that rides your winners and cuts your sinners.

Easy enough, right? Yeah, pull this leg and I’ll tell you everything you need to know about Egrets, owls, and swans!

Random Thoughts:


Keep an eye on commodities on the back of Goldman’s bullish push this morning. The reaction to news is more important than the news itself.


File this under, "Maybe something, maybe nothing" but I noticed that S&P cash was leading the S&P futures lower yesterday, which implies distribution -- or real selling -- as opposed to allocation and rotation.


The most important dynamic right now? I would argue it’s the dollar, and if the greenback continues to get its groove back that stiff wind you feel in your face should not be ignored.


How do I get long Purell in size?


Will we stair-step lower in 50-handle S&P increments the same way we stair-stepped higher? In other words, will the price action remain orderly -- or will the higher dollar throw a wrench into those best laid plans?


One step at a time, right?


Have I turned into that parent who posts baby pictures on Facebook?


Has the commodity volatility fully manifested in the equity action yet?


Has summer trading already started -- and if so, could you imagine how thin it'll be on Friday?


Crude is down 15% this month... and is sitting on import support now?


For all those who still believe that lower crude is equity positive, can you please click here?


The Other Side of Wall Street is officially in stock, and it’s already marked down 40% to $15! Given I put about five years of my life into this, that annualizes to $3/year…or .00822 cents per day! Talk about wage deflation!


Good luck today, friends, and remember that profitability begins within.

R.P."

(in www.minyanville.com)