Prata - Tópico Geral
Boas. Achei interessante porque fundamentado (se irá acontecer ou não ninguém sabe...).
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Cumprimentos
JCS
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Cumprimentos
JCS
---Tudo o que for por mim escrito expressa apenas a minha opinião pessoal e não é uma recomendação de investimento de qualquer tipo---
https://twitter.com/JCSTrendTrading
"We can confidently predict yesterdays price. Everything else is unknown."
"Every trade is a test"
"Price is the aggregation of everyone's expectations"
"I don't define a good trade as a trade that makes money. I define a good trade as a trade where I did the right thing". (Trend Follower Kevin Bruce, $5000 to $100.000.000 in 25 years).
https://twitter.com/JCSTrendTrading
"We can confidently predict yesterdays price. Everything else is unknown."
"Every trade is a test"
"Price is the aggregation of everyone's expectations"
"I don't define a good trade as a trade that makes money. I define a good trade as a trade where I did the right thing". (Trend Follower Kevin Bruce, $5000 to $100.000.000 in 25 years).
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rsacramento Escreveu:Um curioso... Escreveu:...mas a explicação é sempre a mesma: mais vendedores que compradores
desse ponto de vista para cada vendedor terá de haver um comprador
"Prontos"! Mais gente disposta a vender do que gente disposta a comprar. Está melhor assim?
P. S. - Correcção, antes que me caiam em cima. Falta acrescentar "aqueles preços".
"People want to be told what to do so badly that they'll listen to anyone." - Don Draper, Mad Men
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Bull Bull Escreveu:Qual a razão fundamental para a queda da prata
O fundamemtal poderia ser... isto:
http://www.kitco.com/charts/CPM_silver.html
...mas a explicação é sempre a mesma: mais vendedores que compradores
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Sim, a queda já ia longa. Fechei a minha posição e prefiro estar de fora agora.
"In this business if you're good, you're right six times out of ten. You're never going to be right nine times out of ten." by Peter Lynch
http://fundamentalmentebolsa.blogspot.com/
http://fundamentalmentebolsa.blogspot.com/
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Elias Escreveu:A prata continua a cair vertiginosamente. Hoje a queda supera 8% e a cotação anda pelos 36.
Metido pela primeira vez nestas coisas tenho uma valorização de 89% na minha carteira virtual só à conta desta queda da prata...
É assustador pensar se estivesse longo... As economias de uma vida já se tinham ido! :S
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Eu estou short através do ZSL. Fui derrotado no 1º assalto por ter tentado antecipar a bolha (erro grave, minimizado com uso de stops). A minha dúvida será se ela para nos 35 ou apenas nos 30...
"In this business if you're good, you're right six times out of ten. You're never going to be right nine times out of ten." by Peter Lynch
http://fundamentalmentebolsa.blogspot.com/
http://fundamentalmentebolsa.blogspot.com/
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Almendra Escreveu:Na minha opinião, devemos assistir a uma zona de consolidação, antes de voltarmos a uma tendência ascendente.
Voltar à tendência ascendente não sei... Deve haver tanto investidor tardio que está a fugir em pânico que não sei se regressa tão cedo.
Eu diria que se quebrar aquela zona de suporte formada em Março, aí sim, temos "o caldo entornado"!
"People want to be told what to do so badly that they'll listen to anyone." - Don Draper, Mad Men
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- Mensagens: 4688
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A prata a não dar sinais de querer inverter o recente sell-off a que assistimos.
No entanto, o rsi começa a entrar em zona de sobrevenda.
Na minha opinião, devemos assistir a uma zona de consolidação, antes de voltarmos a uma tendência ascendente.
[img]
No entanto, o rsi começa a entrar em zona de sobrevenda.
Na minha opinião, devemos assistir a uma zona de consolidação, antes de voltarmos a uma tendência ascendente.
[img]
- Anexos
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- Silver.png (174.97 KiB) Visualizado 8133 vezes
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Pickbull Escreveu:migluso Escreveu:rsacramento Escreveu:alguém aqui liga ao Gold/silver ratio?
As estatísticas apontam para um rácio de 16.
Ouro a 1600, prata a 100....
Qual estatística?
Não sei se estatística será o termo adequado...
http://indonsia-stock-exchange.blogspot ... chart.html
É também o rácio apontado pelos bulls dos metais preciosos, como Sprott, penso eu.
"In a losing game such as trading, we shall start against the majority and assume we are wrong until proven correct!" - Phantom of the Pits
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Silver Market Appears Massively Overbought
Kenneth D. Worth May 02, 2011 |
Silver reached a price of nearly $50 an ounce on February 25, 2011, in a parabolic move that added 25% to the value of the metal in just seven trading days. The increase in price over that seven day period, $10 an ounce, was nearly twice the value of the metal itself for the entire 22 year period between 1984 and 2006, during which time silver averaged around $5 an ounce.
A second move back up to close to $50 late last week was seen after a sharp sell-off, giving the impression that silver might break through $50 and head higher. However, in early Asian trading today, May 2, 2011, silver has fallen back to the $44 per ounce level. This move has undercut the first retreat from near $50, which was down to around $44.50. A second run at the psychologically significant $50 mark was made and has failed, resulting in a lower low.
Technically, this is highly bearish.
Although, I am a long-term silver bull, and by long-term I mean over the next 20 years, the silver market is currently massively overbought and a sharp correction appears to be in the offing. Remember, this is a market that once lost 90% of its value in just two and a half years (1980-82), and lost half its value as recently as 2008, so you have to be prepared for some volatility if you want to own or trade silver long-term.
Given the instability in the market and the apparent under-pricing of volatility, I several days ago recommended buying both puts on SLV at 45, and calls on SLV at 50. At the time, I suggested that the puts were probably the better trade, but did not want to make an outright bet against the longer term trend. However, should SLV not close above 45 today, May 2, 2011, I would suggest closing out the call options and just owning the puts.
The trend is your friend, until it isn't. If this second run at $50 truly fails, long-term support is in the $25 an ounce area. That's still a nice 38% gain from the $18 an ounce price of just a year ago. Yet, it would be a nearly 50% loss from current levels.
With every day that silver fails to take out the $50 price point, the odds of a severe correction in the near term dramatically increase. Long term silver bulls are not wrong. But no market goes straight up, and silver has never had a special exemption from this universal rule of financial markets.
Hi-ho Silver, away!
Disclosure: I own physical silver and am a long-term silver bull. I am long near-term puts on SLV.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/267041- ... overbought
Kenneth D. Worth May 02, 2011 |
Silver reached a price of nearly $50 an ounce on February 25, 2011, in a parabolic move that added 25% to the value of the metal in just seven trading days. The increase in price over that seven day period, $10 an ounce, was nearly twice the value of the metal itself for the entire 22 year period between 1984 and 2006, during which time silver averaged around $5 an ounce.
A second move back up to close to $50 late last week was seen after a sharp sell-off, giving the impression that silver might break through $50 and head higher. However, in early Asian trading today, May 2, 2011, silver has fallen back to the $44 per ounce level. This move has undercut the first retreat from near $50, which was down to around $44.50. A second run at the psychologically significant $50 mark was made and has failed, resulting in a lower low.
Technically, this is highly bearish.
Although, I am a long-term silver bull, and by long-term I mean over the next 20 years, the silver market is currently massively overbought and a sharp correction appears to be in the offing. Remember, this is a market that once lost 90% of its value in just two and a half years (1980-82), and lost half its value as recently as 2008, so you have to be prepared for some volatility if you want to own or trade silver long-term.
Given the instability in the market and the apparent under-pricing of volatility, I several days ago recommended buying both puts on SLV at 45, and calls on SLV at 50. At the time, I suggested that the puts were probably the better trade, but did not want to make an outright bet against the longer term trend. However, should SLV not close above 45 today, May 2, 2011, I would suggest closing out the call options and just owning the puts.
The trend is your friend, until it isn't. If this second run at $50 truly fails, long-term support is in the $25 an ounce area. That's still a nice 38% gain from the $18 an ounce price of just a year ago. Yet, it would be a nearly 50% loss from current levels.
With every day that silver fails to take out the $50 price point, the odds of a severe correction in the near term dramatically increase. Long term silver bulls are not wrong. But no market goes straight up, and silver has never had a special exemption from this universal rule of financial markets.
Hi-ho Silver, away!
Disclosure: I own physical silver and am a long-term silver bull. I am long near-term puts on SLV.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/267041- ... overbought
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migluso Escreveu:rsacramento Escreveu:alguém aqui liga ao Gold/silver ratio?
As estatísticas apontam para um rácio de 16.
Ouro a 1600, prata a 100....
Qual estatística?
Mais vale perder um lucro do que ganhar um prejuízo.
É melhor um burro vivo do que um cavalo morto.
Mais vale uma alegria na vida do que um tostão no bolso.
É melhor um burro vivo do que um cavalo morto.
Mais vale uma alegria na vida do que um tostão no bolso.
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rsacramento Escreveu:alguém aqui liga ao Gold/silver ratio?
As estatísticas apontam para um rácio de 16.
Ouro a 1600, prata a 100....
"In a losing game such as trading, we shall start against the majority and assume we are wrong until proven correct!" - Phantom of the Pits
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- Registado: 16/11/2009 18:45
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Do mesmo link, não pude deixar de colocar aqui esta teoria ..... para vossos comentários:
(...)
by Dangertime
on Mon, 05/02/2011 - 10:03
#1229253
Things that make you go hmmmmm
2004-(5) - Silver goes from $4.50 to $8.25 in 9 months for an 83% gain. Silver then crashes almost 30% to $5.50 in six weeks.
2005-(6) - Silver goes from $6.50 to $15 in 9 months for a 130% gain. Silver then collapses 35% to $9.50 over a brutal eight weeks.
2007-(8) - Silver goes from $11.50 to $21 in 7 months for an 83% gain. Silver then gets crushed by 25% to $16 over six weeks.
2010-(11) - Silver goes from $18 to $49 in 8 months for a 172% gain. Silver then crashes x% for a loss of $yy over six weeks.
I wonder how the pattern will complete this time.
(....)
(...)
by Dangertime
on Mon, 05/02/2011 - 10:03
#1229253
Things that make you go hmmmmm
2004-(5) - Silver goes from $4.50 to $8.25 in 9 months for an 83% gain. Silver then crashes almost 30% to $5.50 in six weeks.
2005-(6) - Silver goes from $6.50 to $15 in 9 months for a 130% gain. Silver then collapses 35% to $9.50 over a brutal eight weeks.
2007-(8) - Silver goes from $11.50 to $21 in 7 months for an 83% gain. Silver then gets crushed by 25% to $16 over six weeks.
2010-(11) - Silver goes from $18 to $49 in 8 months for a 172% gain. Silver then crashes x% for a loss of $yy over six weeks.
I wonder how the pattern will complete this time.
(....)
Careca da Bolsa
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