Petróleo sob pressão após ataque dos EUA ao Irão

[EuroSexy]

(...) medidas de acomodação monetária (...)

explica-me o que é que isso significa, sff

\è uma questao de de colocares no google essas duas palal+vras juntas e tens o wikipédia com explicaçao detalhada

Mr.Buffett disse que a tendência é para os juros continuarem baixos por um período razoável e as acções continuarem a ser bem suportadas por um período nunca antes visto, muito para além do que o comum dos mortais pensa. Mesmo começando a existir um ou outro sector caro, tal como Biotecnologia e as redes sociais.
Porque será que o SP500 está tão bem suportado e outros indices também?
Até Bill Gross investiu o próprio dinheiro em como a Fed iria fazer todo possível para não aumentar juros este ano.
Não há riscos de inflação nos EUA e a tendência é para que o dólar continua a ser a moeda de valor, beneficiando sobretudo a China que é a entidade mais credora dos EUA para além da própria FED.

Se os juros disparassem, o dólar iria ter uma super valorização aniquilando toda possibilidade de os EUA continuarem a ser nº1. Parece uma contradição mas não é. O dólar como má moeda tenderá sempre a dominar sobre a boa moeda.

[654235]

(...) medidas de acomodação monetária (...)

explica-me o que é que isso significa, sff

\è uma questao de de colocares no google essas duas palal+vras juntas e tens o wikipédia com explicaçao detalhada

[rsacramento]

(...) medidas de acomodação monetária (...)

explica-me o que é que isso significa, sff

[654235]

Só quer dizer uma coisa...os governos vão continuar a adoptar medidas de acomodação monetária por muito tempo. Os mercados já perceberam isso há muito tempo.

E com maior ênfase a partir de 2008

[rsacramento]

já agora aproveito para deixar um panorama histórico e outro para um período mais recente

[rsacramento]

Europe is Helping Drive the Treasury Yields Lower
August 16, 2014 at 08:18 PM | written by John Murphy
The yield on the 10-Year Treasury Note fell to 2.34% this week which is the lowest level in fourteen months. Heavy buying of Treasury bonds in an apparent flight to safety was a big reason for the yield plunge. A bigger reason may have signs of economic weakness overseas, mainly in Europe and Japan. Japan's economy had a very bad second quarter, which kept pressure on its central bank to keep monetary policy very loose. Japan's 10-Year yield is the lowest in the developed world at .50%. Bad economic news also came from Europe's three biggest economies. France GDP growth is stagnant, while Germany's contracted. Italy slipped back into a recession. Weak inflation news also increased pressure on the ECB to take more aggressive approach to monetary policy, which would include quantitative easing. Expectations of that pushed the eurozone bond yields to record lows. The German bond yield slipped below 1% for the first time in history. With eurozone yields plunging, that puts downward pressure on U.S. Treasury yields. Compared to Europe and Japan, U.S. Treasury yields are a relative bargain. It does seem strange to see global funds pouring into the safety of bonds at the same time that the stock market is trying to recover from its recent correction. Something doesn't seem right here. It's usually not a positive sign when Treasury prices are rising faster than stocks. The second chart shows a ratio of the T-Bond 20+year iShares (TLT) divided by the S&P 500 trading near a six month high. That doesn't seem like a vote of confidence in the market or the economy.

fonte

[rsacramento]

as yields das TBonds a 10 anos estão em mínimos de sempre, de acordo com os meus dados

[rsacramento]

yields em mínimos de dois anos e meio: serve para confirmar recessão?

[Cem pt]

Caseiro:

Podes ver no endereço abaixo, postado ontem ao final da tarde:

http://caldeiraodebolsa.jornaldenegocio ... hp?t=77637


Cem

[fcaseiro]

Gráficos actualizados da US Bonds a 30 anos há por aí? Com aprovação do tecto orçamental nos States podem estar interesssantes.

[rsacramento]

DROP IN BOND YIELDS MAY BE WARNING FOR STOCKS

Bonds have benefited from the plunge in commodities. Several bond ETFs have rallied to the highest levels in months. Rising bond prices are pushing bond yields lower. And that may be a warning for stocks. That's because bond yields (which are a barometer of economic strength) have been positively correlated to stocks. The chart below, for example, shows the S&P 500 bars and the 10-Year T-Note Yield (green line) moving up together until April. Since mid-April, however, bond yields started dropping and have now fallen to the lowest level in five months. That divergence between falling bond yields and rising stocks isn't likely to continue. If bond yields are falling because of fears of economic weakness, that should start to pull stocks lower as well. My morning message today also showed some other technical divergences on the S&P 500 which are warning signs. I also wrote recently that the type of sector rotation we've seen since April out of energy and basic materials and into defensive groups like consumer staples, healthcare, and utilities is usually associated with a market correction.

retirado da J Murphy newsletter

[RiscoCalculado]

já agora aproveito o tópico para colocar outra questão

tenho estado a ler um capítulo do J Murphy Technical analysis of financial markets, chamado intermarket analysis

aí ele procura relacionar os vários mercados (moeda, obrigações, futuros e acções) e mostrar como se influenciam uns aos outros

a ideia é atraente já que promete dar uma visão mais rica dos mercados

às tantas ele diz (conforme mostro na imagem) que as acções são influenciadas pela direcção das taxas de juro, movendo-se em trends opostas

ao cruzar o gráfico das bonds de 10 anos com o S&P não fiquei nada com essa ideia (sobretudo ao olhar o período do bear market 2007-2009)

A correlação entre obrigações e acções varia ao longo do tempo, por vezes é positiva , por vezes é negativa ...
Penso que não vale a pena estar à procura de uma regra geral que se aplique a toda e qq situação , depende sempre muito de toda a envolvente económica.


Se olhares para os gráficos entre finais de Abril do ano passado e o momento actual nota-se uma clara correlação negativa entre as Treasury Bonds e o mercado accionista. É algo para o qual eu tinha chamado ( neste caso para a correlação entre o Bund e o Dax) a atenção aqui :
http://caldeiraodebolsa.jornaldenegocios.pt/viewtopic.php?t=73809&start=14


Alguns valores calculados utilizando dados entre 27 de Abril de 2010 e 14 Março 2011 :

Correlações

........................... Dax ..... S&P500
Bund Future ...... -0.46 ... -0.59
10 Year TBond ..... -0.39 ... -0.47


Eventualmente, algures no futuro esta correlação negativa deixará de existir, no entanto penso que é muito provável que se mantenha nos próximos meses :

- Caso as acções continuem a subir ( o que provavelmente significará que o crescimento económico se mantem em bom ritmo e que a inflação (CPI e IPCH) tb terá tendência de subida), é natural que as obrigações de dívida pública (EUA e Alemanha) continuem a cair (com os investidores a exigirem yields mais elevadas que os compensem da 'erosão' provocada pela inflação) . De qualquer forma não me parece muito provável que as yields (das obrigações de dívida pública a 10 anos) vão acima de 4 ou talvez 4.5%. Seria preciso que a inflação ficasse totalmente fora de controle , e os Bancos Centrais já deram indicação de que estão atentos e de que vão actuar em conformidade no sentido de conter as pressões inflacionistas )

- Caso se verifique que o crescimento económico actual é sol de pouca dura ( atenção por exemplo ao preço do cobre que já começa a dar indicação de bastantes dúvidas do mercado relativamente a esse mesmo crescimento ), e que os valores de inflação (CPI e IPCH) actuais se devem sobretudo à alta dos preços do petróleo e matérias primas , que a qualquer momento podem retroceder, então é provável que as acções caiam e as obrigações de dívida pública voltem a subir.


( O único cenário em que vejo como possível uma queda simultânea de acções e obrigações é um cenário de inflação (CPI) elevada motivada pela continuada subida dos preços do petróleo e matéria primas - se estes se mantiverem nos valores actuais ou cairem não vejo como possível uma queda simultânea de acções e obrigações.
Uma Subida simultânea de acções e obrigações tb me parece improvável dada a situação actual )

[Pata-Hari]

Queres info relevante? queres, queres? toma lá info relevante

Pimco’s Bill Gross Dumping Treasuries Leads Managers Calling Rally’s End
By Sree Vidya Bhaktavatsalam - Mar 10, 2011 5:01 AM GMT
inShare.15More
Business ExchangeBuzz up!DiggPrint Email . Warren Buffett, chairman and chief executive officer of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg


Play VideoMarch 10 (Bloomberg) -- Bill Gross has dumped all Treasuries from the world’s biggest mutual fund. Pacific Investment Management Co. said yesterday that Gross, who runs the $237 billion Pimco Total Return Fund, eliminated government-related debt from his flagship fund last month as the U.S. projected record budget deficits. Bloomberg's Deirdre Bolton reports. (Source: Bloomberg)
Bill Gross has dumped all Treasuries from the world’s biggest mutual fund, Warren Buffett is shifting to shorter-term debt, and Swiss Reinsurance Co. is boosting equities and corporate bonds.

Some of the biggest private investors in the bond market, from fund managers to insurers and pensions, are preparing for an end to the three-decade Treasury rally, as interest rates near zero and unprecedented spending by the U.S. government and the central bank threaten to fuel inflation. Their strategies range from reducing the longest-dated holdings and shifting to higher-yielding corporate debt, to investing in stocks, commodities, non-U.S. bonds and even holding cash.

“U.S. government bonds are not a safe haven,” Jim Rogers, the global investor who predicted the 2007-2009 housing-market crash, said in a telephone interview from Singapore. “I cannot conceive of lending money to the U.S. government for 30 years.”

Pacific Investment Management Co. said yesterday that Gross, who runs the $237 billion Pimco Total Return Fund, eliminated government-related debt from his flagship fund last month as the U.S. projected record budget deficits. Gross, who has overseen the expansion of Pimco into a $1.2 trillion bond shop over four decades, predicted a year ago that “bonds have seen their best days.” Last month, he said Treasuries may have to be “exorcised” from model portfolios.

The bonds, considered the safest and most liquid, have been an investment staple for generations. The U.S. is the world’s biggest debt issuer, with $14.2 trillion outstanding. Most of that is owned by U.S. government entities, foreign countries such as China and Japan, and investors including mutual funds, pension funds, insurers and banks.

Real Assets
Mutual funds, which collectively represent the largest private owners of U.S. debt, cut their holdings by 17 percent to $638 billion as of June 30 from the end of 2008, according to federal government data. Treasuries have lost 0.3 percent this year, after returning an average of 8.8 percent a year since interest rates peaked in 1981, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes.

Jeffrey Gundlach, who runs fixed-income specialist DoubleLine Capital LP in Los Angeles, said he’s looking to real assets to lift returns. DoubleLine last month opened its first fund with the freedom to invest in a mix of assets including equities, real estate and commodities.

Gundlach, whose $5.3 billion DoubleLine Total Return Bond Fund has returned 19 percent since opening last April, had 93 percent of assets in mortgage bonds and none in Treasuries at year-end, Bloomberg data show.

‘Devilishly Difficult’
“Tactical investing is more important than ever before,” Gundlach, who has more than half of his personal wealth in real assets, said in a telephone interview. Government policies and rising commodity prices make it “devilishly difficult” for investors to profit in U.S. bonds, he said.

Pimco, based in Newport Beach, California, and led by Mohamed El-Erian, has opened a global stock fund and plans to start two that invest in the emerging markets. The firm has hired executives who previously worked at Franklin Resources Inc. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc., and this month added seven analysts and traders to help expand the active stock-fund unit.

Pimco Total Return in December expanded its mandate to invest as much as 10 percent of its assets in preferred stocks and convertible debt, a hybrid security that can be converted into stock at a predetermined price, according to a regulatory filing.

BlackRock ‘Underweight’
BlackRock Inc. (BLK), the world’s biggest money manager, has moved to shorter-duration securities because of the potential for interest-rate swings and is “underweight” Treasuries relative to benchmark indexes, Rick Rieder, chief investment officer of fundamental fixed income at the New York-based firm, wrote in a February investment commentary.

BlackRock started expanding beyond bonds a decade ago by making acquisitions, including the 2006 purchase of Merrill Lynch & Co.’s investment unit. The firm, formed in 1988 as a fixed-income manager, in 2009 bought Barclays Global Investors. Rieder, who co-manages the $3.4 billion BlackRock Total Return Fund, had more than half of its assets in mortgage-related securities as of Dec. 31, according to a quarterly report. About 26 percent was in Treasuries.

U.S. debt entered a bull market in the early 1980s, after Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker raised interest rates to as high as 20 percent to tame inflation. In the years that followed, inflation and interest rates declined, pushing up bond prices, which move inversely to yields. The 10-year Treasury yield, which reached a high of 15.8 percent in September 1981, fell to as low as 2.05 percent on Dec. 30, 2008.

‘Artificially Low’
That yield has risen to 3.47 percent as of yesterday. The Fed, after spending $1.7 trillion in the wake of the global financial crisis to end the recession, said in November it would buy an additional $600 billion of Treasuries through June to help the U.S. economy. The Fed and the Bank of Japan are alone among the major central banks in indicating they have no plans to increase rates.

Gross has said he may buy Treasuries again if yields rise. Laurence D. Fink, chief executive officer of BlackRock, said in an interview last week that he’s a “big buyer” of the U.S. dollar and he doesn’t see a “bear market” in bonds.

Bond buyers outside the U.S. have added longer-term debt, showing that some agree with Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s assessment that inflation will be contained even as global food and energy prices soar. China, the largest foreign investor in U.S. government debt, bought more U.S. bonds in December even as its leaders criticized Bernanke’s plan for the Fed to buy $600 billion of Treasuries by June.

‘China’s Faith’
“China has kept on lending money to the U.S. to keep its export machine going, and to prevent losses” on its existing holdings of Treasuries, said Yu Yongding, a former Chinese central bank adviser. “Perhaps it is too late to do anything about the existing stock without causing a serious political and financial backlash. But at least China should stop continuing building up its holdings.”

China’s currency’s de facto peg to the dollar limits its ability to diversify away from Treasuries even while its policy makers are “very, very bearish” on the dollar, said Andy Xie, formerly Morgan Stanley’s chief Asia economist in Hong Kong. China’s probably trying to diversify by increasing purchases of euro-denominated bonds and buying bonds with shorter maturities to minimize risk, Xie said.

“China’s faith in the Fed broke a few years ago,” said Xie, now an independent economist based in Shanghai. “China used to be enamored of people like Greenspan and Bob Rubin even though at that time the dollar was coming down. QE2 destroyed whatever faith was left.”

‘Who Will Buy?’
Moves by the Fed to pump money into the economy are keeping interest rates “artificially low,” Gross wrote in a letter to investors published March 2. The central bank’s purchases have resulted in 10 percent of publicly issued U.S. debt being owned by the Fed, 50 percent by foreign governments and 40 percent by private investors such as fund managers, insurance companies and banks, he said.

“The legitimate corollary question is: Who will buy Treasuries when the Fed doesn’t?” Gross wrote.

Like Gross, Loomis Sayles & Co.’s Dan Fuss has expanded investments in non-U.S. bonds and equity-linked securities. The $19.9 billion Loomis Sayles Bond Fund has been reducing Treasuries for more than a year in favor of high-yield bonds, said Kathleen Gaffney, co-manager with Fuss. Junk bonds accounted for 24 percent of the fund’s assets as of Jan. 31, while 11 percent was in convertible debt, according to the firm’s website. About 2.4 percent was in U.S. Treasuries.

‘Excellent Liquidity’
“Treasuries are the one sector we would avoid, but the one positive about it that it provides investors with excellent liquidity,” said Gaffney, whose fund has beaten 96 percent of its peers in the past five years, according to Bloomberg data. “So we have plenty of government bonds with liquidity, just not in the U.S.”

The fund has shifted money into Canadian government bonds, Gaffney said in an interview. About 13 percent of the fund was in Canadian debt, according to the website.

Loomis Sayles, the Boston firm that oversees $152 billion, last year hired a portfolio manager and three research analysts from Evergreen Investments LLC as part of a plan to expand its stock-fund unit.

The impact of the Fed’s efforts to stimulate the economy by buying Treasuries, questions over the durability of U.S. growth and rising oil prices spurred by unrest in the Middle East have created a “confusing landscape,” Cynthia Steer, managing director of investment strategy at Russell Investments in Seattle, said in a phone interview.

‘Wise Investors’
More institutional investors are seeking to break away from broadly used benchmarks for U.S. bonds, such as the BarCap U.S. Aggregate Total Return index, and use a combination of indexes that incorporate bonds all over the world, Russell’s Steer said.

“Wise investors started diversifying away from the BarCap Aggregate index a decade ago into areas such as global bonds,” said Steer, whose firm manages $149 billion for institutional clients. “Alternatives such as hedge funds investing in credit should be part of the good investment program.”

Rogers, the chairman of Rogers Holdings who correctly predicted the start of the commodity rally in 1999, said he plans to sell Treasuries short, betting on a price decline, because of the “staggering” U.S. debt load. Net interest expense to service the national debt will triple to an all-time high of $554 billion in 2015 from $185 billion in 2010, according to the Obama administration’s adjusted 2011 budget.

Buffett’s Holdings
Rogers said he had a short position in U.S. Treasuries until the Middle East protests that began in Egypt in January prompted him to unwind the wager on expectations that demand for U.S. bonds would rise temporarily. He said he’ll take a new bearish stand when prices climb.

Insurers, whose flexibility to allocate to different assets is limited by regulators, are buying bonds with shorter maturities to protect their investments from rising interest rates. Investors who buy longer-term securities face the risk that interest rates may spike, hurting them if they want to sell before the debt matures.

Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. brought the percentage of securities maturing in a year or less to 23 percent as of year- end, according to a Feb. 28 regulatory filing. That compares with 16 percent when the Omaha, Nebraska-based company started disclosing the duration of investments 18 months earlier. The holdings include Treasuries, municipal debt, foreign-government securities and corporate bonds.

Swiss Re
Swiss Re, which trails only Munich Re by assets among reinsurers, is buying about $7 billion of “high-grade” corporate bonds to improve investment returns, Chief Financial Officer George Quinn said in a Feb. 17 interview from Zurich.

The company will also, depending on market conditions, increase stocks to 3 percent to 4 percent of its $149 billion investment portfolio by year-end, from 2 percent, Quinn said. The reinsurer last had that much in equities in the second quarter of 2008, according to quarterly statements.

Allstate Corp., the largest publicly traded U.S. home and auto insurer, is sacrificing yield for flexibility on the $49.9 billion in fixed-income holdings at its life-insurance division by acquiring shorter-duration bonds, according to Chief Executive Officer Thomas Wilson.

“We are staying short in Allstate Financial, so that when rates come up we can reinvest at higher rates and lock in good long-term returns,” Wilson, whose firm is based in Northbrook, Illinois, said in a Feb. 9 interview. “But that’s costing us today in operating income.”

‘Hard Assets’
Liberty Mutual Holding Co. CEO Edmund “Ted” Kelly has decreased the percentage of fixed-income assets in the Boston- based insurer’s $69.8 billion investment portfolio, while adding to equity and energy holdings.

“We have obviously long-term liabilities that will increase with inflation, so to protect ourselves we have been investing heavily in hard assets,” Kelly said in a Feb. 17 interview on Bloomberg Television’s “Street Smart.” “We’re a big holder of oil and gas, we’re into mining and minerals and we just finished in wrapping up developing a wind farm in northeast Brazil.”

Pension funds, facing potential shortfalls in meeting their liabilities to retirees, are adjusting their allocations as well. Pensions surveyed by Greenwich Associates predicted fixed- income returns would decline to 4.8 percent annually over the next five years, from 5.7 percent predicted a year earlier, according to a Feb. 8 report by the Stamford, Connecticut, consulting firm.

Calpers’ Target

California Public Employees’ Retirement System, the nation’s largest public pension plan at $230 billion in assets, in December cut its target allocation to bonds and raised the portion for assets that guard against inflation.

Calpers, as the Sacramento-based retirement fund is called, reduced its target for corporate bonds to 16 percent from 20 percent as part of a broader shift aimed at lifting returns. The pension added to inflation-linked securities and infrastructure to protect itself from the impact of possible price increases.

“We learned in the financial crisis and the past recession that a liquidity crunch or inflation can have a significant impact on portfolio performance in ways that many investors didn’t anticipate,” Rob Feckner, president of Calpers’s board, said in a Dec. 13 statement announcing the changes.

To contact the reporter on this story: Sree Bhaktavatsalam in New York at sbhaktavatsa@bloomberg.net

[rsacramento]

os gráficos dos futuros das 10Y US TBONDS e das respectivas (tás com atenção pata?) yields

[rsacramento]

ok, ty

[Pata-Hari]

De modo muito simples, a ideia é de que quando as obrigações te dão bons rendimentos (yields) e dado que são menos arriscadas e voláteis que as acções, muita gente prefere ter mais obrigações que acções (rentabilidade boa para um risco menor). Quando isto não sucede, o mercado procura alternativas que são normalmente acções. O contrário é verdade.

Daí a relação inversa e daí serem complementares na composição de carteiras - quando umas desvalorizam as outras valorizam. Mas, nem sempre é assim. Existem inúmeros períodos em que ambos perderam valor ao mesmo tempo ou que ganharam ao mesmo tempo.

[rsacramento]

retirado livro INTERMARKET TECHNICAL ANALYSIS, do mesmo autor

SUMMARY
This chapter discussed the strong link between Treasury bonds and equities. A rising bond market is considered bullish for stocks; a falling bond market is considered bearish. However, there are some qualifiers. Although a falling bond market is almost always bearish for equities, a rising bond market does not ensure a strong equity market. Deteriorating corporate earnings during an economic slowdown may overshadow the positive effect of a rising bond market (and falling interest rates). While a rising bond market doesn't guarantee a bull market in stocks, a bull market in stocks is unlikely without a rising bond market

[rsacramento]

já agora aproveito o tópico para colocar outra questão

tenho estado a ler um capítulo do J Murphy Technical analysis of financial markets, chamado intermarket analysis

aí ele procura relacionar os vários mercados (moeda, obrigações, futuros e acções) e mostrar como se influenciam uns aos outros

a ideia é atraente já que promete dar uma visão mais rica dos mercados

às tantas ele diz (conforme mostro na imagem) que as acções são influenciadas pela direcção das taxas de juro, movendo-se em trends opostas

ao cruzar o gráfico das bonds de 10 anos com o S&P não fiquei nada com essa ideia (sobretudo ao olhar o período do bear market 2007-2009)



alguém quer comentar?

[rsacramento]

fez-me sentido, sim srª

[Pata-Hari]

E gostaste da outra explicação ?

(não resisto, desculpaaaaaaa, sou gajaaaaaaaaa!

yeld (yeld)

adjective

1.barren
2.not giving milk)

[rsacramento]

XISSA! não é YELD é YIELD!

sempre a aprender

[Pata-Hari]

XISSA! não é YELD é YIELD! - lá se foi a boa vontade

A razão é provavelmente expectativas de inflação. A yield da tbond corresponde à inflação + um dado retorno real exigido. Ora como a variação não deve vir do retorno real, provavelmente a razão prende-se com o facto de ao longo dos anos as pessoas acharem que a inflação vai permanecer em valores mais baixos do que historicamente estávamos habituados a achar, ou seja, em valores mais controlados, portanto.

[rsacramento]

rsacramento, são yields. Poderias traduzir por "rendimento". Para perceber com muita facilidade o conceito, imagina que compras uma obrigação que hoje te custa 94 e que termina daqui a um ano (a 100, por definição, é sempre assim). A tua yield é de 6%. Se te custar 95, a tua yield/rendimento, é de 5% (bem, estou a ignorar o cupão que soma a isto).. Ou seja, quanto mais baixo é o preço (o teu preço de compra, neste caso), maior a rentabilidade que te fica. Daí a relação inversa. Fui clara, não fui?

Manda aí um gráfico de longo prazo das yields das tbonds.

pata: agradeço-te a boa vontade

contudo não pedi a explicação do que era uma yeld, mas sim porque caem continuadamente desde 1994, como o meu último grafico mostra

[Pata-Hari]

rsacramento, são yields. Poderias traduzir por "rendimento". Para perceber com muita facilidade o conceito, imagina que compras uma obrigação que hoje te custa 94 e que termina daqui a um ano (a 100, por definição, é sempre assim). A tua yield é de 6%. Se te custar 95, a tua yield/rendimento, é de 5% (bem, estou a ignorar o cupão que soma a isto).. Ou seja, quanto mais baixo é o preço (o teu preço de compra, neste caso), maior a rentabilidade que te fica. Daí a relação inversa. Fui clara, não fui?

Manda aí um gráfico de longo prazo das yields das tbonds.

[rsacramento]

até eu sei que (os futuros d)as TBonds variam na razão inversa das suas yelds

deixo aqui uns gráficos de ambas, relativos à maturidade de 10 anos

as bonds já inverteram? R: ver aqui



já agora uma questão para os entendidos: qual a explicação para a queda - bem visível - constante das yelds, pelo menos desde 1994?