Petróleo - Tópico Geral
“The end of cheap oil” – The Globe / ”Slut på billig olja” – Klotet
January 20, 2011
Dear Reader of my blog,
It has been silent here a while, a suitably long respite after the 10 intensive weeks in Australia. But now it is time to start discussing peak oil again. The theme for today’s edition of the science news radio program, The Globe, was, “The end of cheap oil”.
Here is a transcript of my contribution to the program. My section came after they had already discussed the IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2010.
“But not everyone agrees with the IEA that everything will keep chugging along as usual.
- Kjell Aleklett, Professor of Physics in Uppsala and chairperson of ASPO, the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, thinks that the era of globalisation – where you produce something in one place and then freight it around the world is nearing its end. In recent years he has let his Ph.D. students scrutinise the IEA’s reports:
- I cannot agree with the IEA since it believes that huge amounts of oil will be discovered in the future and that oilfields that are not yet in production will be able to give much more than is technically or physically possible, says Kjell Aleklett
Aleklett and his research group have published around 20 articles in peer-reviewed scientific journals on how much coal, gas and oil the world has left and how fast it can be extracted. Their results do to agree with the IEA’s scenarios, although they come close in some areas.
- We know how important energy is for the economy. I suspect that the IEA is afraid that, if it was to announce straight out that the energy needed for global economic growth is not available, there would be panic, says Kjell Aleklett.
He adds that he feels like the child in “The Emperor’s New Clothes” who dared to say that the emperor was naked. To describe how much oil the world has left to produce he uses champagne as a metaphor.
- Imagine that all the oil that exists today in Iraq (about 100 billion barrels) could be squeezed into a magnum bottle. We could then look back through history and see that, up till now, we have consumed 11 such bottles, i.e. 1100 billion barrels of oil.
Besides the bottles we have drunk we still have an additional 8 bottles in the refrigerator. They represent the oilfields found in the Middle East back in the 1960s and 1970s and that we have not yet had time to empty, continues Aleklett.
Then there is sparkling wine of lesser quality such as Canada’s tar sands and Venezuela’s heavy oil and that amounts to an additional two bottles in the refrigerator. It is fairly easy to calculate how much more oil we can discover in the future and, if we are a little optimistic, it may amount to three extra bottles by 2050, asserts Aleklett.
The total, therefore, is 13 bottles. At today’s rate of consumption, each bottle lasts about 3 years and 4 months and can fill slightly more than three glasses. The USA is currently sipping on its last domesticly-produced glass and needs to import. However, China, India and other nations are becoming thirstier and thirstier and, according to Kjell Aleklett, we are now in a situation where there is not enough champagne left to satisfy demand – we are heading for a fairly sober New Year’s Even in future. The problem is not really the amount of extractable oil that remains in the Earth’s crust rather than that the laws of physics do not allow it to flow as quickly as we might like into the drill hole of an oil well.
Kjell Aleklett thinks that the IEA puts too much faith in inflated and overly optimistic production numbers, especially those from the OPEC-nations which have much to gain from exaggerating their resources. And he is supported in this by the Swedish oil industy’s Gunnar Agfors. He participated in constructing the first Swedish refineries and has led the quests of several oil companies for the black gold. Agfors agrees that the world’s oil resources are greatly exaggerated since, for political reasons, OPEC nations report significantly larger reserves than they are actully sitting on and this is well known in the oil industry.”
http://aleklett.wordpress.com/
January 20, 2011
Dear Reader of my blog,
It has been silent here a while, a suitably long respite after the 10 intensive weeks in Australia. But now it is time to start discussing peak oil again. The theme for today’s edition of the science news radio program, The Globe, was, “The end of cheap oil”.
Here is a transcript of my contribution to the program. My section came after they had already discussed the IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2010.
“But not everyone agrees with the IEA that everything will keep chugging along as usual.
- Kjell Aleklett, Professor of Physics in Uppsala and chairperson of ASPO, the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, thinks that the era of globalisation – where you produce something in one place and then freight it around the world is nearing its end. In recent years he has let his Ph.D. students scrutinise the IEA’s reports:
- I cannot agree with the IEA since it believes that huge amounts of oil will be discovered in the future and that oilfields that are not yet in production will be able to give much more than is technically or physically possible, says Kjell Aleklett
Aleklett and his research group have published around 20 articles in peer-reviewed scientific journals on how much coal, gas and oil the world has left and how fast it can be extracted. Their results do to agree with the IEA’s scenarios, although they come close in some areas.
- We know how important energy is for the economy. I suspect that the IEA is afraid that, if it was to announce straight out that the energy needed for global economic growth is not available, there would be panic, says Kjell Aleklett.
He adds that he feels like the child in “The Emperor’s New Clothes” who dared to say that the emperor was naked. To describe how much oil the world has left to produce he uses champagne as a metaphor.
- Imagine that all the oil that exists today in Iraq (about 100 billion barrels) could be squeezed into a magnum bottle. We could then look back through history and see that, up till now, we have consumed 11 such bottles, i.e. 1100 billion barrels of oil.
Besides the bottles we have drunk we still have an additional 8 bottles in the refrigerator. They represent the oilfields found in the Middle East back in the 1960s and 1970s and that we have not yet had time to empty, continues Aleklett.
Then there is sparkling wine of lesser quality such as Canada’s tar sands and Venezuela’s heavy oil and that amounts to an additional two bottles in the refrigerator. It is fairly easy to calculate how much more oil we can discover in the future and, if we are a little optimistic, it may amount to three extra bottles by 2050, asserts Aleklett.
The total, therefore, is 13 bottles. At today’s rate of consumption, each bottle lasts about 3 years and 4 months and can fill slightly more than three glasses. The USA is currently sipping on its last domesticly-produced glass and needs to import. However, China, India and other nations are becoming thirstier and thirstier and, according to Kjell Aleklett, we are now in a situation where there is not enough champagne left to satisfy demand – we are heading for a fairly sober New Year’s Even in future. The problem is not really the amount of extractable oil that remains in the Earth’s crust rather than that the laws of physics do not allow it to flow as quickly as we might like into the drill hole of an oil well.
Kjell Aleklett thinks that the IEA puts too much faith in inflated and overly optimistic production numbers, especially those from the OPEC-nations which have much to gain from exaggerating their resources. And he is supported in this by the Swedish oil industy’s Gunnar Agfors. He participated in constructing the first Swedish refineries and has led the quests of several oil companies for the black gold. Agfors agrees that the world’s oil resources are greatly exaggerated since, for political reasons, OPEC nations report significantly larger reserves than they are actully sitting on and this is well known in the oil industry.”
http://aleklett.wordpress.com/
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Petróleo a caminho dos 100 dólares por barril na bolsa de Londres
28 Janeiro 2011 | 17:26
Carla Pedro - cpedro@negocios.pt
O Brent do Mar do Norte, crude de referência para as importações portuguesas, está a aproximar-se dos 100 dólares por barril.
O Brent para entrega em Março segue a negociar em torno dos 99 dólares, depois de ter tocado nos 99,63 dólares por barril, numa jornada em que também atingiu um recorde no diferencial face ao “benchmark” norte-americano, o West Texas Intermediate.
O WTI ganha 4,29%, a negociar nos 89,31 dólares, a tentar estreitar o forte “spread” que tem face ao Brent e que hoje já atingiu um máximo de sempre nos 12,49 dólares.
Apesar de a moeda norte-americana estar a valorizar – e quando isso acontece, os activos denominados em dólares ficam menos atractivos como investimento alternativo – os fortes tumultos no Egipto intensificaram os receios de que os protestos se estendam às principais regiões produtoras de petróleo no Médio Oriente.
Os tumultos no Egipto seguem-se aos fortes protestos na Tunísia, que levaram a 14 de Janeiro à deposição do presidente tunisino, Ben Ali.
“A Tunísia não é um grande produtor de petróleo e o Egipto também não, mas a onda de tumultos aproxima-se perigosamente dos campos petrolíferos”, comentou à Bloomberg um responsável da PFGBest, Phil Flynn.
Recorde-se que, em Portugal, os preços da gasolina nas bombas estão em máximos de sempre.
28 Janeiro 2011 | 17:26
Carla Pedro - cpedro@negocios.pt
O Brent do Mar do Norte, crude de referência para as importações portuguesas, está a aproximar-se dos 100 dólares por barril.
O Brent para entrega em Março segue a negociar em torno dos 99 dólares, depois de ter tocado nos 99,63 dólares por barril, numa jornada em que também atingiu um recorde no diferencial face ao “benchmark” norte-americano, o West Texas Intermediate.
O WTI ganha 4,29%, a negociar nos 89,31 dólares, a tentar estreitar o forte “spread” que tem face ao Brent e que hoje já atingiu um máximo de sempre nos 12,49 dólares.
Apesar de a moeda norte-americana estar a valorizar – e quando isso acontece, os activos denominados em dólares ficam menos atractivos como investimento alternativo – os fortes tumultos no Egipto intensificaram os receios de que os protestos se estendam às principais regiões produtoras de petróleo no Médio Oriente.
Os tumultos no Egipto seguem-se aos fortes protestos na Tunísia, que levaram a 14 de Janeiro à deposição do presidente tunisino, Ben Ali.
“A Tunísia não é um grande produtor de petróleo e o Egipto também não, mas a onda de tumultos aproxima-se perigosamente dos campos petrolíferos”, comentou à Bloomberg um responsável da PFGBest, Phil Flynn.
Recorde-se que, em Portugal, os preços da gasolina nas bombas estão em máximos de sempre.
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Oil jumps 2 percent on U.S. growth, Egypt turmoil
By Robert Gibbons
NEW YORK | Fri Jan 28, 2011 11:44am EST
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil prices jumped more than 2 percent on Friday as investors reacted to accelerating growth in the United States in the fourth quarter of 2010 and increasing unrest in Egypt.
Protests in Egypt and the government's response intensified, making investors more wary about the unrest.
Earlier, oil prices received a boost from news that the U.S. economy gathered speed in the fourth quarter, fueled by the biggest gain in consumer spending in more than four years and strong exports.
"There is growing concern about the situation in Egypt and Yemen and there may be worry about not going into the weekend being too short," said Phil Flynn, analyst at PFGBest Research in Chicago.
U.S. crude oil for March delivery rose $2.25, or 2.6 percent, to $87.89 a barrel at 11:35 a.m. EST (1635 GMT).
In London, ICE Brent crude for March rose $1.05 to $98.44 a barrel, reaching $98.95 earlier.
The smaller gains squeezed Brent's premium over its U.S. counterpart, which had stretched to more than $12 per barrel, its widest since January 2009.
Total U.S. crude volume was above 822,600 lots traded just after 11:30 a.m. EST (1630 GMT), according to Reuters data, 19 percent above the 250-day average and already surpassing Thursday's 789,077-lot total.
Total Brent trading volume was above 387.000 lots traded, according to Reuters data, 1.5 percent above the 250-day average.
(Additional reporting by Gene Ramos in New York and Christopher Johnson in London; Editing by David Gregorio)
By Robert Gibbons
NEW YORK | Fri Jan 28, 2011 11:44am EST
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil prices jumped more than 2 percent on Friday as investors reacted to accelerating growth in the United States in the fourth quarter of 2010 and increasing unrest in Egypt.
Protests in Egypt and the government's response intensified, making investors more wary about the unrest.
Earlier, oil prices received a boost from news that the U.S. economy gathered speed in the fourth quarter, fueled by the biggest gain in consumer spending in more than four years and strong exports.
"There is growing concern about the situation in Egypt and Yemen and there may be worry about not going into the weekend being too short," said Phil Flynn, analyst at PFGBest Research in Chicago.
U.S. crude oil for March delivery rose $2.25, or 2.6 percent, to $87.89 a barrel at 11:35 a.m. EST (1635 GMT).
In London, ICE Brent crude for March rose $1.05 to $98.44 a barrel, reaching $98.95 earlier.
The smaller gains squeezed Brent's premium over its U.S. counterpart, which had stretched to more than $12 per barrel, its widest since January 2009.
Total U.S. crude volume was above 822,600 lots traded just after 11:30 a.m. EST (1630 GMT), according to Reuters data, 19 percent above the 250-day average and already surpassing Thursday's 789,077-lot total.
Total Brent trading volume was above 387.000 lots traded, according to Reuters data, 1.5 percent above the 250-day average.
(Additional reporting by Gene Ramos in New York and Christopher Johnson in London; Editing by David Gregorio)
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renateves Escreveu:paubo, posso pedir-te para colocar o gráfico actualizado?
Obrigado
Aqui vai.
Depois de quebrada a LTA, parece que o suporte dos +-87 USD também está a ceder...
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Elias Escreveu:Um texto interessante que ajuda a entender esta diferença de preços:
http://www.stockmarketsreview.com/extra ... 121_92023/
O texto é bastante bom e esclarecedor sobre esta matéria (que já tem sido abordada aqui no forum aqui e ali), de facto.
Sublinho que o preço que serve de referência, ou se quisermos, que mais influencia os preços dos combustíveis na Europa é o Brent. As reservas de Brent no Mar do Norte não durarão muito mais e esse é um dos factores que está a empurrar preço para cima (o texto já aborda isto).
No passado pouca diferença fazia pegar no crude ou no brent para estabelecer comparações de preços nos combustíveis mas com a crescente divergência dos preços isso é cada vez menos verdade (em teoria, o Brent devido a uma ligeira menor qualidade para transformação em combustíveis como a gasolina e gasóleo até deveria ser mais barato quando já está a acontecer o oposto numa escala bem considerável).
FLOP - Fundamental Laws Of Profit
1. Mais vale perder um ganho que ganhar uma perda, a menos que se cumpra a Segunda Lei.
2. A expectativa de ganho deve superar a expectativa de perda, onde a expectativa mede a
__.amplitude média do ganho/perda contra a respectiva probabilidade.
3. A Primeira Lei não é mesmo necessária mas com Três Leis isto fica definitivamente mais giro.
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Um texto interessante que ajuda a entender esta diferença de preços:
http://www.stockmarketsreview.com/extra ... 121_92023/
http://www.stockmarketsreview.com/extra ... 121_92023/
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Gráfico actualizado.
Teste à LTA e ao mesmo tempo ao forte suporte.
Teste à LTA e ao mesmo tempo ao forte suporte.
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Elias Escreveu:Petróleo fecha em queda no Nymex mas Brent sobe
sexta-feira, 21 de Janeiro de 2011 | 19:58
Diário Digital
Os preços do petróleo terminaram a última sessão da semana com tendências opostas de cada lado do Atlântico. Em Nova Iorque, os preços caíram, pressionados pela subida das reservas dos EUA. Em Londres, o barril de Brent subiu mais de um dólar, impulsionado pela subida inesperada da confiança dos empresários alemães.
No londrino ICE Futures Europe, o barril de Brent para entrega em Março avabçou 1,04 dólares, ou 1,1%, para os 97,62 dólares. O prémio do Brent face ao crude no Nymex atingiu os 8,51 dólares, o valor mais elevado desde Fevereiro de 2009.
No mercado nova-iorquino, os contratos de Março do West Texas Intermediate cederam 48 cêntimos, ou 0,5%, encerrando nos 89,11 dólares.
Comentário meu: a diferença já vai em 8 dólares.
um pouco impreciso, mas sempre é um comentário
um graficozinho apropriado:
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Petróleo fecha em queda no Nymex mas Brent sobe
sexta-feira, 21 de Janeiro de 2011 | 19:58
Diário Digital
Os preços do petróleo terminaram a última sessão da semana com tendências opostas de cada lado do Atlântico. Em Nova Iorque, os preços caíram, pressionados pela subida das reservas dos EUA. Em Londres, o barril de Brent subiu mais de um dólar, impulsionado pela subida inesperada da confiança dos empresários alemães.
No londrino ICE Futures Europe, o barril de Brent para entrega em Março avabçou 1,04 dólares, ou 1,1%, para os 97,62 dólares. O prémio do Brent face ao crude no Nymex atingiu os 8,51 dólares, o valor mais elevado desde Fevereiro de 2009.
No mercado nova-iorquino, os contratos de Março do West Texas Intermediate cederam 48 cêntimos, ou 0,5%, encerrando nos 89,11 dólares.
Comentário meu: a diferença já vai em 8 dólares.
sexta-feira, 21 de Janeiro de 2011 | 19:58
Diário Digital
Os preços do petróleo terminaram a última sessão da semana com tendências opostas de cada lado do Atlântico. Em Nova Iorque, os preços caíram, pressionados pela subida das reservas dos EUA. Em Londres, o barril de Brent subiu mais de um dólar, impulsionado pela subida inesperada da confiança dos empresários alemães.
No londrino ICE Futures Europe, o barril de Brent para entrega em Março avabçou 1,04 dólares, ou 1,1%, para os 97,62 dólares. O prémio do Brent face ao crude no Nymex atingiu os 8,51 dólares, o valor mais elevado desde Fevereiro de 2009.
No mercado nova-iorquino, os contratos de Março do West Texas Intermediate cederam 48 cêntimos, ou 0,5%, encerrando nos 89,11 dólares.
Comentário meu: a diferença já vai em 8 dólares.
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renateves Escreveu:Bom dia
Solicito a actualização do gráficos e das suas linhas de tendência.
Obrigado.
Aqui vai, sem grandes novidades.
O Light Sweet Crude Oil têm vindo a corrigir ligeiramente nas ultimas 5 sessões, depois de ter tido o fecho mais alto no passado dia 12. Os touros a ganharem força para furar os 92,58?
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mudei de gráfico; a ver se agora a coisa estabiliza
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- Mensagens: 10503
- Registado: 29/11/2007 12:50