Alívio do IRS é maior para 17% das famílias

[LTCM]

Baupost Group's Seth Klarman gave an intriguing guest lecture at Harvard's Psychology of Leadership course

<iframe width="640" height="390" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/TBiUm0ojcOA" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

[Fingerspitzengefuhl]

Estas preocupações têm a sua razão de ser, na Europa e nos EUA ao longo dos últimos 20 anos, pelo menos, assistimos a um crescimento económico sustentado pelo "investimento público" em larga escala, baseado em teorias económicas suicidas (Keynesianism, wellfare state, etc).

Agora estamos a chegar (ou já chegámos mesmo) ao ponto em que não será mais possível fugir para a frente e, como era de prever, serão os lucros das empresas a pagar as dívidas do "estado social".

Este cenário, pelo menos numa primeira análise, não me parece nada favorável para o mercado accionista no seu geral.

Espero que sejam tomadas as medidas necessárias para que mais tarde ou mais cedo tenhamos um Bull Market forte e duradouro

[Supermann]

Star hedge fund manager Seth Klarman sees few bargains in the current environment and predicted on Tuesday that the stock market could suffer another lost decade without any gains. "Given the recent run-up, I'd be worried that we'll have another 10 years of zero returns," Klarman, who rarely speaks in public, said at the CFA Institute's annual conference in Boston.

e isto sendo um jogo de soma positiva

e entretanto viveu de quê?

estou mesmo a ver o M Covel a malhar forte e feio...

Ele está a falar do mercado como um todo nao ir a lado nenhum e novamente uma década perdida... em nada fala daquilo que ele é capaz, logo o que veem as comissões dele aqui chamada?

O homem tem um curriculum invejável, sendo que anda praticamente sempre com 40-50% em cash e mesmo assim com retornos acima dos 20% anuais LIQUIDOS !! e mesmo em anos de bear market com resultados positivos...

logo duvido que os investidores dele estejam preocupados...

[rsacramento]

de facto pouco mais li do aquilo que me chamou a atenção, ou seja, a tal citação; o resto pareceu-me c.v. e como tal desinteressei-me rapidamente

[LTCM]

se releres a minha citação não é bem isso que se depreende...

Se leste todo o texto e foi essa a tua conclusão que posso eu dizer? Patavina.

Bons negócios

[rsacramento]

se releres a minha citação não é bem isso que se depreende...

[LTCM]

bom se a estrela vive à comissão e os resultados foram nulos (ou uma nulidade, neste caso), foi à falência, não?

Estás a brincar não estás?

O Seth Klarman é, provavelmente, o melhor Value Player do mundo, desde 1982 que só teve um ano negativo, e apresenta rentabilidades anuais superiores a 20%, com 50% do portfolio aplicado em cash.

[rsacramento]

bom se a estrela vive à comissão e os resultados foram nulos (ou uma nulidade, neste caso), foi à falência, não?

[LTCM]

qual a frase que queres reformulada?

A do meio.

[rsacramento]

ahh, e já agora não me trates por ilustre, sff

[rsacramento]

qual a frase que queres reformulada?

[LTCM]

Star hedge fund manager Seth Klarman sees few bargains in the current environment and predicted on Tuesday that the stock market could suffer another lost decade without any gains. "Given the recent run-up, I'd be worried that we'll have another 10 years of zero returns," Klarman, who rarely speaks in public, said at the CFA Institute's annual conference in Boston.

e isto sendo um jogo de soma positiva

e entretanto viveu de quê?

estou mesmo a ver o M Covel a malhar forte e feio...

Não compreendi o comentário, pode o ilustre reformular?
Obrigado.

[atomez]

Pelo título até pensei que ele estava a falar de Portugal...

[rsacramento]

Star hedge fund manager Seth Klarman sees few bargains in the current environment and predicted on Tuesday that the stock market could suffer another lost decade without any gains. "Given the recent run-up, I'd be worried that we'll have another 10 years of zero returns," Klarman, who rarely speaks in public, said at the CFA Institute's annual conference in Boston.

e isto sendo um jogo de soma positiva

e entretanto viveu de quê?

estou mesmo a ver o M Covel a malhar forte e feio...

[LTCM]

Wednesday, May 19, 2010
Seth Klarman of Baupost Group Calls for Another Lost Decade
Posted by TraderMark at 1:20 PM TweetThis
Hedge fund manager Seth Klarman of Baupost Group is not very well known among the retail crowd, but this value investing maven is considered a maestro amongst the institutional crowd. And it shows with their money, as he has one of the top 10 shops in terms of assets under management, in the world. [Mar 8, 2010: World's Largest Hedge Funds] The problem is, he really does not talk publicly much, so there is not much one can "blog" about in terms of verbiage with Klarman. I for one, do not have a single Klarman post, in 3 years and 6000+ posts - until today.

Klarman seems quite pensive about the future - much like Japan had back to back "lost decades" for investors [Dec 8, 2009: Japan Launches Another Round of Stimulus in 2 Decade Long Fight] [Oct 27, 2008: Japan's Lost Quarter Century] , Klarman sees the same for the United States of Debt. It would seem almost impossible if you are a 'reversion to mean' kind of person to put together yet another decade of sickly returns after what occurred in 2000-2009, [Mar 26, 2008 - WSJ: Stocks Tarnished by Lost Decade] [Oct 7, 2008: Bloomberg - 2000s Stock Market Worse than 1930s], but there do appear to be a myriad of challenges facing the U.S. and eventually the "market" is going to call the U.S. out for its Greek like behavior. [Dec 30, 2009: Eric Sprott Wonders if US Debt Scheme is Simply the Biggest Ponzi Scheme Ever] Knowing "when" is the tricky part. This country has become so addicted to cheap money [Jun 3, 2009: A Country that Cannot Function Without Easy Money] , the scenarios painted in my mind if interest rates are forced upward by bond vigilantes to somewhat "normal".... or dare I say mid 1980s levels are frightening. [Dec 15, 2008: The Economic "Recovery"] Further, as Klarman says ... what "market" do we really have at this point? It's all government & central bank steroid induced and subsidized... no one really can tell what is sitting there underneath in the land of reality. [Nov 18, 2009: Our Economy is on Steroids]


Some thoughts from Seth Klarman via Reuters:

* Star hedge fund manager Seth Klarman sees few bargains in the current environment and predicted on Tuesday that the stock market could suffer another lost decade without any gains. "Given the recent run-up, I'd be worried that we'll have another 10 years of zero returns," Klarman, who rarely speaks in public, said at the CFA Institute's annual conference in Boston.
* Current market conditions remind Klarman of a Hostess Twinkie snack cake because "everything is being manipulated by the government" and appears "artificial."
* "I'm more worried about the world broadly than I've ever been in my whole career," Klarman said.
* Klarman has 30 percent of assets at his $22 billion Baupost Group in cash, he said. He started the firm in 1982 with $27 million and has averaged 20 percent annual gains ever since. In 2007, amid the depths of the credit crash, Baupost had its best year, gaining 52 percent.
* Inflation is a risk that Klarman said he is particularly concerned with given the government's high rate of borrowing to bail out the financial system. Baupost has purchased far out-of-the-money puts on bonds to hedge the risk, he said. The puts, which Klarman said he viewed as "cheap insurance," will expire worthless even if long-term interest rates rise to 6 or 7 percent. But if rates rise to 10 percent, Baupost would make large gains, and if rates exceed 20 percent the firm could make 50 or 100 times its outlay.

Dear FMMF reader, I want to reiterate - this not some two bit aspiring "doomsday" mutual fund manager who writes a blog saying these things This is not "those crazy folks" at ZeroHedge or that "lunatic" Denninger. This is amongst the most well respected mainstream investment managers of our lifetime... apparently he has left the Matrix. That doesn't mean the market cannot rally 100% from here - but then again do we truly have a 'market' anymore?