"TAP não sobrevive se se mantiver pública", garante Pinto Luz

[StockGalaxy]

de qq modo 20 Biliões já dão para pressionar determinados suportes para tecnicamente pressionar uma moeda.

Qual foi o capital pelo George Soros para pressionar libra?
Segundo se diz em Setembro de 1992, o seu fundo shortou a libra esterlina recorrendo a mais de 10 biliões de US dollars.

stock

[Supermann]

já agora fica para a posteridade:

Top 10 U.S. Hedge-Fund Firms Firm AUM
($ billions)

Bridgewater Associates $38.6
JPMorgan $32.9
Paulson & Co. $29
D.E. Shaw Group $28.6
Och-Ziff Capital Management $22.1
Soros Fund Management $21
Goldman Sachs Asset Management $20.6*
Farallon Capital Management $20
Renaissance Technologies $20
Barclays Global Investors $17*

[Supermann]

Sim concordo... mas HF desse calibre já sao HF dos maiores do mundo mas digamos que por ventura o almoço era entre os 5 maiores HF mundiais.

Não sei quanto capital é o maior hedge fund mas a adivinhar diria q deve rondar os 20 B ou 30 B ?

Portanto o bolo total seria 100-150 B o que mesmo assim é cerca de 3% do volume diário do par.

Já agora se tiveres à mão ai a lista dos maiores HF agradecia... fiquei com curiosidade

[LTCM]

epah por muitos hedge funds que sejam digamos que em activos totais tenham 20 Bilioes.

20 Bilioes no mercado monetário é peannuts... deve ser equivalente a um grao de areia.

Sendo que o EURUSD deve compreender algo entre 40-50% do volume do mercado monetário estamos a falar de um mercado de volume diário de uns 3 Trilioes.

Os HF, a sério não é aquelas coisas dos MF, normalmente andam acima dos 20 biliões.

Hedge fund ranking reveals nasty scars from financial crisis

By Christine Williamson
March 8, 2010,

Pensions & Investments' list of the world's largest hedge fund firms — those with at least $20 billion as of Dec. 31 — shows that assets managed by the 11 companies totaled $316.2 billion, virtually the same as the $316 billion managed by the 10 hedge fund managers that made P&I's last ranking, based on data as of Dec. 31, 2007 (P&I, Feb. 4, 2008).

The flat growth disguises what clearly was a period of intense turmoil for many hedge fund managers, some of which were rocked by performance woes in the last months of 2008 and first few months of 2009, as well as by client redemptions.

The result is that the composition of the list of the hedge fund managers with more than $20 billion under management changed significantly:

•Hedge fund assets of three prominent firms — Goldman Sachs Asset Management, Renaissance Technologies Corp. and Citadel Investment Group — fell below the $20 billion cutoff, dropping the three from the ranking.

•Four hedge fund companies — institutionally-oriented Brevan Howard Asset Management LLP and Baupost Group LLC, as well as retail-focused Soros Fund Management LLC and Man Group PLC — joined P&I's list.

•In addition to the three firms that left the top manager list, three others remained above the $20 billion mark despite suffering asset declines ranging from 30% to 43%. The collective decline of these six managers over the two-year period was $74 billion.

To compile its list, P&I gathered information from hedge fund companies and industry sources. For a longer list of large hedge fund managers, available on www.pionline.com/hedgefunds, research also involved scouring Securities and Exchange Commission filings and press reports, and interviews with industry sources.

Holding its No. 1 ranking on the latest list was J.P. Morgan, which managed $53.5 billion in hedge funds as of Dec. 31 — $32.5 billion by J.P. Morgan Asset Management and $21 billion by Highbridge Capital Management LLC. This is an increase of 18.9% from J.P. Morgan's year-end 2007 total of $45 billion.

Bridgewater Associates Inc. remained in second place, with hedge fund assets of $43.6 billion as of Dec. 31. Bridgewater was among the hedge fund managers that showed healthy growth during the period, rising 21%.

Paulson & Co. Inc. increased assets 10% to end 2009 with $32 billion, pushing the firm up to third from eighth.

Filling the next three spots on the list are the three new firms: Brevan Howard and Soros, each with $27 billion; and Man Group, with $25.3 billion.

Added through declines

Paulson's elevation in P&I's ranking and the addition of the three new firms resulted from asset declines of the five managers that had filled the third through seventh spots on the 2007 list.

•Farallon Capital Management LLC experienced an asset decline of 42.5% to end 2009 with $20.7 billion, to rank 10th in the current ranking.

•Assets managed in hedge funds by Och-Ziff Capital Management Group LLC dropped 30.2% to $23.1 billion, moving the firm into seventh place.

•D.E. Shaw Group, which had held the fourth spot, slipped to eighth with an asset decline of 30.3% to $23 billion as of Jan. 1, the date provided by the firm.

•Formerly in sixth place, Goldman Sachs' hedge fund assets declined 45.2% to $17.8 billion at year-end 2009, dropping the firm from the ranking. RenTech's hedge fund assets fell 52.2% to $15 billion, moving it out of the ranking after having been seventh in 2007.

In the ninth slot is BlackRock Inc., which managed $21 billion in hedge funds as of Dec. 31. BlackRock's presence is largely because of its acquisition last year of Barclays Global Investors Inc., which ranked ninth on the 2007 list with $20 billion.

Citadel Investment Group held the 10th position in the 2007 ranking with $20 billion of hedge fund assets, but with assets totaling $12.2 billion of as Dec. 31, it fell off the list.

The fourth new entrant on P&I's list, Baupost Group, just made the cut with $20 billion under management as of Sept. 30, the most recent date for which data are available from an industry source.

P&I also analyzed, where possible, how much each of the largest managers managed for institutional investors, including pension funds, endowments, sovereign wealth funds and institutionally oriented hedge funds-of-funds managers.

Collectively, assets managed for institutional investors by the 11 largest firms declined 22% to $151 billion or about half of total hedge fund assets as of Dec. 31, down from $194.9 billion or 62% of total assets two years earlier.

Bridgewater tops the hedge fund manager list sorted by institutional assets. All of Bridgewater's $43.6 billion is managed for institutions.

In terms of institutional assets, Paulson & Co. follows with $21.8 billion (68%); Brevan Howard, $21.6 billion (80%); D.E. Shaw, $19.1 billion (83%); BlackRock, $17.9 billion (85%); Och-Ziff Capital, $17.6 billion (76%); and Man Group, $7.8 billion (31%).

J.P. Morgan and Farallon Capital Management both declined to break out institutional assets. Soros Fund Management has a very minimal institutional clientele.

[Supermann]

epah por muitos hedge funds que sejam digamos que em activos totais tenham 20 Bilioes.

20 Bilioes no mercado monetário é peannuts... deve ser equivalente a um grao de areia.

Sendo que o EURUSD deve compreender algo entre 40-50% do volume do mercado monetário estamos a falar de um mercado de volume diário de uns 3 Trilioes.

[canguru]

The Department of Justice is investigating whether several prominent hedge funds conspired to drive down the value of the euro

On Feb. 8, Executives from some of the hedge funds including SAC Capital Advisors LP, Greenlight Capital Re Ltd. (Nasdaq: GLRE), Soros Fund Management LLC and Paulson & Co., attended an "idea dinner" hosted by New York-based research and brokerage firm Monness, Crespi, Hardt & Co., according to an anonymous source cited by Bloomberg.

In fact, during the dinner at the Townhouse, a Manhattan restaurant, a SAC portfolio manager encouraged other traders to join his firm in going "short," or betting against, the euro, The Journal reported citing people who attended the dinner.

A research note issued shortly after the dinner to hundreds of hedge-fund clients by Monness Crespi summed up the SAC manager's argument without mentioning his name, The Journal reported. The trader argued that the euro is likely to fall to "parity," to the dollar on an exchange basis.

The presenter was very bearish on the euro, believing over time it "could trade between 90 cents and $1.20." With the Eurozone countries facing high deficits and historic spending cuts, the note continued, "the presenter's way to play this is to short the euro."

Justice Department investigators are likely to examine whether information sharing like what occurred at the Feb. 8 dinner constitutes collusion. Because of the difficulty of proving that firms intentionally sought to act together, collusion

Vocês estão a confundir.
A questão aqui não é saber se é legítimo ou não shortar o EURUSD mas sim se houve conspiração entre vários HF. É isso que o Departamento de Justiça está a investigar.

[Pata-Hari]

Exacto. Além de que com a actual crise na Europa e com as dificuldades que estamos a encontrar ao tentar gerir uma Europa a várias velocidades (devagar, devagarzinho e parada), é perfeitamente natural que o Euro sofra e mesmo que seja questionado o seu futuro.

[Supermann]

incrível a conotação que dão no jornalismo.

Porque nao dizer os hedge funds estão bullish no dólar simplesmente, em vez de usarem conotações negativas como "shortar Euro"

Ainda há dias vi comentários em notícias qualquer coisa como "especuladores sanguessugas... deviam proibir shorts, shortar o euro é incorrecto".

É tão incorrecto, como proíbir estar longo em USD

[atosk]

Não sou muito adepto de teorias da conspiração. Mas vejo com bons olhos uma queda do euro. Senão vejamos:

A queda do euro é sinónimo de valorização do dólar. Como esta recuperação accionista tem sido feita, cavalgando num dólar fraco, a subida do dólar vai fazer caír as acções, o que me parece excelente dáda a situação sobre-comprada da maioria dos principais índices. Seria um momento perfeito para uma pequena correcção técnica. Além de que já estou curto no Nasdaq e no SP.Ah ah ah.

Em termos económicos seria bom para as empresas exportadoras europeias, nomeadamente as portuguesas.

[LTCM]

The Department of Justice is investigating whether several prominent hedge funds conspired to drive down the value of the euro as the Greek debt crisis left the currency vulnerable to sophisticated trading methods employing credit default swaps and other derivatives.

Likewise, the European Commission yesterday (Wednesday) said it would examine trades in sovereign credit-default swaps (CDS) related to the Greek crisis, which has driven the euro lower and prompted officials to warn hedge funds against trying to profit from the region's debt crisis.

The Justice Department's antitrust division "has opened an investigation into agreements among various hedge funds that trade euro contracts," including contracts to trade euros in the "cash or the derivatives market," a person familiar with the letter told The Wall Street Journal.

In a letter sent last week the Justice Department asked hedge funds to hold onto trading records and e-mails relating to the euro, Bloomberg News reported, citing people who have seen the letter.

The letter requested that the funds "preserve all documents" and electronic communications relating to agreements to trade the euro or communications about agreements to trade currencies, the anonymous source told The Journal.

Recent trading in securities related to the Greek financial crisis has drawn the attention of government officials to hedge funds, banks and other speculators. Some critics claim traders have deepened financial difficulties in Europe by first helping nations hide their debt with CDS and other derivatives, and then profited by driving down the value of the underlying securities.

"It is clear in the current environment, and likely for a long time going forward, any entity that profits from another's misfortune, in this case hedge funds versus Greece and the euro zone, risks being the target of public backlash, or worse, government retaliation," Kirby Daley, a senior strategist in Hong Kong with Newedge Group's prime brokerage business told Bloomberg.

Devaluation on the Menu
On Feb. 8, Executives from some of the hedge funds including SAC Capital Advisors LP, Greenlight Capital Re Ltd. (Nasdaq: GLRE), Soros Fund Management LLC and Paulson & Co., attended an "idea dinner" hosted by New York-based research and brokerage firm Monness, Crespi, Hardt & Co., according to an anonymous source cited by Bloomberg.

One of 23 themes discussed at the dinner was a bet that the euro would fall against the dollar.

In fact, during the dinner at the Townhouse, a Manhattan restaurant, a SAC portfolio manager encouraged other traders to join his firm in going "short," or betting against, the euro, The Journal reported citing people who attended the dinner.

A research note issued shortly after the dinner to hundreds of hedge-fund clients by Monness Crespi summed up the SAC manager's argument without mentioning his name, The Journal reported. The trader argued that the euro is likely to fall to "parity," to the dollar on an exchange basis.

The presenter was very bearish on the euro, believing over time it "could trade between 90 cents and $1.20." With the Eurozone countries facing high deficits and historic spending cuts, the note continued, "the presenter's way to play this is to short the euro."

The size of the bets against the euro is unclear.

Justice Department investigators are likely to examine whether information sharing like what occurred at the Feb. 8 dinner constitutes collusion. Because of the difficulty of proving that firms intentionally sought to act together, collusion charges against Wall Street firms have been rare.

Spokespeople for the hedge funds declined requests from CNBC to comment or didn't return calls. Neil Crespi, President of Monness Crespi couldn't be reached for comment.

Insurance Against Greek Default
Credit default swaps are credit derivative contracts that let banks and hedge funds place bets on whether or not a company, or in this case a country, will default. The CDS buyer makes periodic payments to the seller, and in return receives a payoff if the underlying financial instrument defaults.

The Markit Group of London last year introduced the iTraxx SovX Western Europe index - an index based on CDS that let traders gamble on Greece shortly before the crisis. Critics contend that traders and speculators focus on the index's daily gyrations, and as banks and others rush into these swaps, the cost of insuring Greece's debt rises.

Alarmed by that bearish signal, bond investors then shun Greek bonds, making it harder for the country to borrow.

The end-goal of course would be to drive the nation into a full-scale default and collect.

Speculation using naked CDS, where investors take out insurance on bonds they don't own, may "be very destabilizing," with "costs much greater than the benefits," Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz said yesterday in an interview with Bloomberg Television.

"The problem with credit default swaps is that they offer a more efficient way to short a company, or a country, for that matter," Money Morning Contributing Editor Martin Hutchinson said in an interview.

"To sell a share short, you risk all your capital - there's no limit on how high a share of stock can rise. To buy puts, you deal only in a small market, and most puts are short-dated, so you would have to act quickly," he said. "With a CDS, however, you pay only an annual premium that is a small fraction of the principal amount involved, you acquire an asset that typically lasts several years, and you can deal in a market of over $60 billion - enough potential profit for even the greediest hedge fund."

EC Investigation
In the wake of the Greek debt crisis, the European Commission has summoned banks and regulators to discuss regulation of the market for sovereign CDS.

The European Union's executive agency will hold a meeting in Brussels "shortly," Chantal Hughes, a commission spokeswoman, said in an e-mailed statement obtained by Bloomberg. The talks, which will take place as soon as March 5, will cover CDS pricing and links to the sovereign bond market, according to three people familiar with the discussions.

The speed of the commission's reaction is "surprising," Karel Lannoo, chief executive of the Centre for European Policy Studies, said in a telephone interview with Bloomberg yesterday. "It's only a week or so that the CDS story has been around."

The commission will meet with national financial supervisors on the morning of March 5 and CDS market participants in the afternoon, according to anonymous sources cited by Bloomberg.

Deutsche Bank AG (NYSE: DB), Germany's biggest bank, will attend the meeting. Deirdre Leahy, a spokeswoman for the International Swaps and Derivatives Association Inc. in New York, declined to immediately comment.

"We are looking at the issue very closely," commission spokeswoman Hughes told Bloomberg. "We need to be vigilant."