Cramer: China's Tightening Spells Trouble Across the Board
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"We'll Adapt to the Headwinds"
By Jim Cramer
RealMoney Columnist
2/12/2010 11:19 AM EST
Let me see, so the biggest percentage of people in 27 years is calling for a correction, and we are going to get it? Is that the deal? They are all going to be right? They're that good?
I don't think so.
I have news for people: China is going to be an ongoing issue. There is a property bubble. Maybe they won't be a voracious user of coal and iron ore -- so sell Vale (VALE - commentary - Trade Now) and Bucyrus (BUCY - commentary - Trade Now).
The dollar will be stronger until Greece/Spain/Portugal/Germany/Netherlands/Italy gets resolved.
We will get used to both China and the dollar.
It will be a matter of time. Over the course of several weeks, we'll expect to see more tightening and more euro nonsense.
We will get used to it.
We get used to it in the end, and we'll stop trading on it.
Maybe oil will go to $50 and we will have a great reason to buy retail stocks, which are really cheap. We will get used to it.
Maybe we will discover that there is innate demand for cell phones that is separate from empty Chinese buildings. We will get used to it.
We will get used to everything. We will not go down 150 points every time China sneezes. The market doesn't work like that. We will not go down endlessly as the dollar goes to 1.25 or even 1.00 against the euro.
We'll get used to it.
People think we are never used to anything. Or they think we have to go to 8500 on the Dow or 900 on the S&P to get used to it. That we have to get back to 4% yield to get used to it.
They are dreamers. They are part of the correction mob. They will not change their tune until China starts raising again and all of Europe is hunky-dory.
Well, all I can say is ... good luck with that.
We will get used to these problems. And when we do, there will not be a bell that goes off that says to the correction camp, "Let's get long!"
It doesn't work like that, either. "
(in www.realmoney.com)
By Jim Cramer
RealMoney Columnist
2/12/2010 11:19 AM EST
Let me see, so the biggest percentage of people in 27 years is calling for a correction, and we are going to get it? Is that the deal? They are all going to be right? They're that good?
I don't think so.
I have news for people: China is going to be an ongoing issue. There is a property bubble. Maybe they won't be a voracious user of coal and iron ore -- so sell Vale (VALE - commentary - Trade Now) and Bucyrus (BUCY - commentary - Trade Now).
The dollar will be stronger until Greece/Spain/Portugal/Germany/Netherlands/Italy gets resolved.
We will get used to both China and the dollar.
It will be a matter of time. Over the course of several weeks, we'll expect to see more tightening and more euro nonsense.
We will get used to it.
We get used to it in the end, and we'll stop trading on it.
Maybe oil will go to $50 and we will have a great reason to buy retail stocks, which are really cheap. We will get used to it.
Maybe we will discover that there is innate demand for cell phones that is separate from empty Chinese buildings. We will get used to it.
We will get used to everything. We will not go down 150 points every time China sneezes. The market doesn't work like that. We will not go down endlessly as the dollar goes to 1.25 or even 1.00 against the euro.
We'll get used to it.
People think we are never used to anything. Or they think we have to go to 8500 on the Dow or 900 on the S&P to get used to it. That we have to get back to 4% yield to get used to it.
They are dreamers. They are part of the correction mob. They will not change their tune until China starts raising again and all of Europe is hunky-dory.
Well, all I can say is ... good luck with that.
We will get used to these problems. And when we do, there will not be a bell that goes off that says to the correction camp, "Let's get long!"
It doesn't work like that, either. "
(in www.realmoney.com)
Cramer: China's Tightening Spells Trouble Across the Board
"China's Tightening Spells Trouble Across the Board"
By Jim Cramer
RealMoney Columnist
2/12/2010 6:52 AM EST
"Why did we hold Freeport (FCX - commentary - Trade Now) through the night? What were we thinking when we bought Vale (VALE - commentary - Trade Now) on a disappointing quarter? Shouldn't we now be worried about the Bucyrus (BUCY - commentary - Trade Now) we took up three or the Caterpillar (CAT - commentary - Trade Now) up the same amount?
That's what happens when you think the Chinese are going to be like our country's government and let the bubbles roll. The Chinese are not like us. There is no Nancy Pelosi pushing pet products in a stimulus plan that probably only had half of the money creating jobs with a multiplier effect -- as opposed to giving raises and stabilizing unionized civil service employment.
The Chinese mean business. They are not going to let expansion run amok. So when you have 3-point gains on the backs of the shorts who got caught leaning the wrong way for a day, you have to take them.
So let's take the case of Freeport. Great company up a lot in a short time almost entirely related to China with no yield support. Now contrast that to Southern Copper (PCU - commentary - Trade Now), nowhere near as big a run with yield support. Which is better right now? I think as long as China's tightening, you go with PCU. You need the floor.
Of course today could be the day when the linkage is broken and we rally on everything from oil to mining to tech.
But that means we would break the pattern that has gripped us and that I have complained endlessly defines 2010.
I don't think it will happen. Expect a clobbering."
(in www.realmoney.com)
By Jim Cramer
RealMoney Columnist
2/12/2010 6:52 AM EST
"Why did we hold Freeport (FCX - commentary - Trade Now) through the night? What were we thinking when we bought Vale (VALE - commentary - Trade Now) on a disappointing quarter? Shouldn't we now be worried about the Bucyrus (BUCY - commentary - Trade Now) we took up three or the Caterpillar (CAT - commentary - Trade Now) up the same amount?
That's what happens when you think the Chinese are going to be like our country's government and let the bubbles roll. The Chinese are not like us. There is no Nancy Pelosi pushing pet products in a stimulus plan that probably only had half of the money creating jobs with a multiplier effect -- as opposed to giving raises and stabilizing unionized civil service employment.
The Chinese mean business. They are not going to let expansion run amok. So when you have 3-point gains on the backs of the shorts who got caught leaning the wrong way for a day, you have to take them.
So let's take the case of Freeport. Great company up a lot in a short time almost entirely related to China with no yield support. Now contrast that to Southern Copper (PCU - commentary - Trade Now), nowhere near as big a run with yield support. Which is better right now? I think as long as China's tightening, you go with PCU. You need the floor.
Of course today could be the day when the linkage is broken and we rally on everything from oil to mining to tech.
But that means we would break the pattern that has gripped us and that I have complained endlessly defines 2010.
I don't think it will happen. Expect a clobbering."
(in www.realmoney.com)
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