"TAP não sobrevive se se mantiver pública", garante Pinto Luz

[AC Investor Blog]

Esta é a frase que as pessoas deviam ter em mente:

"The companies are stronger than the countries"

[ETranquilo]

Saudações,

isto é o que se chama por as coisas em perspectiva.

Eventualmente não se justificaria o medo que se instalou nos mercados mundiais por causa da Grécia e depois Portugal (enfim a Espanha não é bem da mesma dimensão que Portugal), mas a malta anda nervosa e as declarações do Almunia foram como ´o gato por lebre´de Cavaco nos idos de ´80, a gota de
agua que fez o copo transbordar.

[Ulisses Pereira]

"No Fear of Small Countries With Small Markets"

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney Columnist
2/5/2010 6:18 AM EST

"The companies are stronger than the countries. Plain and simple. I will take the common stock of Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP - commentary - Trade Now) or Enterprise Products Partners (EPD - commentary - Trade Now) over the paper of Greece or Portugal any day of the week. Which is really the problem. Who needs the headache of the stuff?

Not only that but a lot of our dividends are going higher after the companies turned out to be doing better than expected. The dividend boosts are running hot and heavy. The paper of Spain and the paper of United Parcel Service (UPS - commentary - Trade Now), which boosted its dividend Thursday? Is there really an issue?

I am a big believer in contagion when the contagion can affect demand but as Doug Kass spells out this morning using some pretty smart data from Mike O'Rourke, we are dealing with small countries and small markets. In the 1996-1997 fiascos our issues involved Russia, which had just raised a gigantic amount of capital, and Asia, which was taking in a huge amount of tech.

I am not minimizing anything. I have said repeatedly that 2010 will not be like 2009. The last year pretty much represented a remarkable turn everywhere on borrowed money. I am simply saying that the common stocks of so many companies represented great buys after they got hammered and I am curiously wondering with a Chevron (CVX - commentary - Trade Now) yielding 4% and an HCP (HCP - commentary - Trade Now) giving you 6% and change -- one of my faves -- whether we should use their pain as our gain.

The usual caveat: When I see the run in copper, for example, and I know it is driven by hedge funds, I want to short Freeport-McMoran (FCX - commentary - Trade Now), a company without a dividend that just ran five-fold and I don't want to be in a steel stock like U.S. Steel (X - commentary - Trade Now) which had a similar move.

But companies like Inergy (NRGY - commentary - Trade Now) are beginning to be bought.


AT&T (T - commentary - Trade Now) and Verizon (VZ - commentary - Trade Now)? Reflecting the worst again. Pretty compelling.

You can stay away from the non-dividend plays or you can go after the companies that just reported superior earnings with multi-year visibility, a la Boeing (BA - commentary - Trade Now), or the drillers, all of whom signaled better times ahead and bet that Greece, Spain, Portugal and whoever is next - Italy? -- won't hurt you.

What will hurt you is your fellow shareholder, the one who owns copper on margin, the one who has been playing oil in big tankers.

They are your enemy, not these tiny countries that are smaller than Exxon (XOM - commentary - Trade Now).

At the time of publication, Cramer was long Chevron and UPS. "

(in www.realmoney.com)