"TAP não sobrevive se se mantiver pública", garante Pinto Luz

[Dwer]

No entanto, em Março o indicador put/call atingiu extremos de complacência idênticos a este e isso não teve grandes consequências bear. O indíce continuou a trepar alegremente.

Tendo isto em conta, penso que o SPX ainda vai continuar a surpreender pela positiva, atingindo o target da bullish flag (aprox. 1200), antes de corrigir.

Claro que isto é futurologia delirante, mas pronto, se me apontassem uma pistola à cabeça e me exigissem um prognóstico, é o que eu diria.

spx e putcall diários com o low do p/c de Março (média de 10 dias)

[Dwer]

Se o que a HM diz, se realizar, isso poderá implicar uma visita do S&P à LT a vermelho no gráfico, hoje nos 1070. Na minha opinião seria uma tomada de fôlego muito saudável para este bull.

[Ulisses Pereira]

GOE,

Tens aqui uma excelente explicação: http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers ... lratio.asp

paubo, eu diria que é mais um factor a ter em conta no processo de decisão. Nunca tomaria uma decisão com base nisto como objecto primordial dessa tomada de decisão.

Um abraço,
Ulisses

[paubo]

Boa tarde Ulisses

Costumas definir entradas/saidas com base no racio do volume put/call e/ou qual a importancia que das a isto?

[- GOE -]

Ulisses em que é que consiste e como é que se interpreta o Put/Call Ratio?

Obrigado desde já e bons negócios

[Ulisses Pereira]

"Shaking Out the Late Longs"

By Helene Meisler
RealMoney.com Contributor
1/7/2010 8:00 AM EST

"So, big-cap tech took it on the chin Wednesday and no one fretted. Was it just one month ago that Apple (AAPL - commentary - Trade Now) would go red and maybe even Goldman Sachs (GS - commentary - Trade Now) and everyone would fret beyond belief? But that wasn't the case Wednesday; all we got was shrugging.

Sometimes it's not about what sentiment is like when we're up, but when we're down. As noted a month, two months, even three months ago, any flat day after a big up would find all sorts of bearish tones in the market. We have now had two flat days and quite a decent whack in some of the big-cap tech names (some are now down on the year) and the put/call ratio stayed low.

That's a change. A month ago, heck just last week, the week between Christmas and New Year's Day, we saw a flat day and the put/call ratio soared right up to 91%. Wednesday? It was 71%.

So now let's look at the 10-day moving average of the put/call ratio. Circled on the chart are two other times since the March low that we have seen it get this low and then turn upward. The first one arrived on March 19, 2009. Now before you scoff and say who cares, let me note that March 20 saw the S&P 500 lose 30 points. In today's market that's not much, but then it was a move from 800 to 770, a 4% drop one day. I don't recall exactly, since I think I was on vacation, but my guess is no one shrugged at that 4% decline.

The second reading this low was Oct. 16, 2009. Now some of us might think that was the high, but in fact it took about three more days before the market actually rolled over. It didn't go anywhere special in those three days. The decline lasted about two weeks and took us from 1100 to 1040 on the S&P.

So granted it is only two occurrences, but the deal here is that we should think of this moving average like an overbought or oversold reading. When folks get so giddy or complacent, pick your choice of words, the put/call ratio gets low. At some point it gets so low that it doesn't go any lower, like now. So if you were looking at this as an oscillator you'd consider it currently oversold, and in terms of put/call ratios that tends to mean we need to see some higher readings. And we all know higher readings come about from a market decline.

I'd say whatever sort of pullback we get should be enough to shake out the late longs, enough to get those who are convinced we should buy every single dip every single day to rethink that view. Maybe it happens with the employment number on Friday, maybe it happens without it. But that put/call ratio chart says it ought to happen. "

(in www.realmoney.com)