"TAP não sobrevive se se mantiver pública", garante Pinto Luz

[CrashXXI]

Viva, "yes you cannot"

Espero que tenhas saído na altura da nossa última "discussão" sobre o CIT, quando ele rompeu - literalmente - com o excelente movimento que estava a ter, até então,... lembraste?
(Edit.): http://caldeiraodebolsa.jornaldenegocios.pt/viewtopic.php?t=70563&highlight=nervos+++a%E7o

Um abraço, cannot
Crash

[cannot]

não houve surpresa...

já tinhamos sido avisados...

enquanto o mercado subisse iam aguentar... para darem a noticia depois... esta foi ordináriamente previsível...

who´s next?

yes we can... começa a não resultar sempre... talvez um... yes we can´t

"yes we can´t" é engraçado, ou um "no we can" também era giro, só para misturar mais os sentimentos.

Mas eu prefiro um "yes we cannot"

[bEMdISPOSTO]

No tópico da PTI (salvo erro) já falei da possibilidade da veículo do Banco privado procurar desfazer-se gradualmente dos 20 e tal milhões de BRI que tem, se não arranjar comprador graúdo interessado. Enquanto subiram muito, foi bom, para poderem vendê-las recuperando do tombo do ano passado, mas agora que as coisas andam a esfriar, nem sei se vão começar a precipitar descidas a quererem vender o que puderem, num mercado instável... Embora a BRI seja a minha preferida (e muitas alegrias me deu), temo por esta possibilidade, e quantas vezes já se viu uma boa empresa cair e cair ao longo do tempo, sem que ninguém queira acreditar no que está a presenciar - porque havia alguém muito entalado que tinha que vender muitas...

Coisas como estas podem vir agora a manifestar-se nesta altura do campeonato (a situação do CIT já era mais ou menos receada, mas andou-se o tempo todo a esperar que se safasse, e vamos a ver se mais casos do género haverá por aí sem se esperar).

[creepy]

não houve surpresa...

já tinhamos sido avisados...

enquanto o mercado subisse iam aguentar... para darem a noticia depois... esta foi ordináriamente previsível...

who´s next?

yes we can... começa a não resultar sempre... talvez um... yes we can´t

[bEMdISPOSTO]

O mercado é soberano, e embora eu goste muito das minhas acções preferidas, larguei-as todas e estou completamente fora, porque para mim o mercado anda muito nervoso (volatilidade aumentou, quedas repentinas e abruptas - também subidas, mas as quedas são mais rápidas e abruptas o que é mau) e o meu sentimento é que a correcção ainda não acabou.

As boas notícias já nós sabemos, as más vão agora aparecendo aqui e ali... Esta coisa da falência do CIT group pode ter o impacto que tiver, mas não é boa para o mercado. E estamos num período em que, após as empresas apresentarem os resultados trimestrais, não há mais "drivers" para as fazer subir (exceptuando novidades numa ou noutra empresa que possam aparece, claro), porque que os resultados são jeitosos já se sabe. Então, o mais provável, na minha opinião bem disposta, é que a correcção vá um pouco mais abaixo, e depois, dependendo dos estragos, poderemos ver então os bons papeis recuperarem... mas para mim, a euforia das subidas entrou de férias.

Para quem estiver longo e entalado esta visão não é encorajadora, por isso recomendo cuidado. (naturalmente que há títulos em maior perigo do que outros, caso a correcção se prolongue, sobretudo os que subiram muito). É a minha opinião.

[nunofaustino]

"...e depois caiam até deixarem de ter qualquer valor. "
em que espaço temporal achas que vão até zero?
na sessão de hoje?
obrigado

vê o que aconteceu à Lehman Broters:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=LEHM ... =undefined

Um abr
Nuno

[Mcmad]

"...e depois caiam até deixarem de ter qualquer valor. "
em que espaço temporal achas que vão até zero?
na sessão de hoje?
obrigado

Tens que aproveitar um possivel Short squeeze para sair..

[soil]

"...e depois caiam até deixarem de ter qualquer valor. "
em que espaço temporal achas que vão até zero?
na sessão de hoje?
obrigado

[nunofaustino]

Nov 1st 2009 at 5:45PMText SizeAAAFiled under: CIT Group, Goldman Sachs , Citigroup
The U.S.'s $2.3 billion in preferred stock and common shareholders' stock will be wiped out.

Em princípio a acções deverão ir para os 0USD. É provável que abram a var uns 30 ou 40 cêntimos, depois subam até aos 50/60 e depois caiam até deixarem de ter qualquer valor.

Um abr
nuno

[salvadorveiga]

nao era um topcio a explicar em algumas frases o q acontecia a empresas falidas, e o porque de compra-las a 10 centimos se calhar era um risco, etc etc...

se bem q esse link ja deve ser mais que suf

[MarcoAntonio]

Oh Marco, onde anda aquele teu link a falar destas cenas, acho que dava jeito aqui

Referes-te a este?

http://www.sec.gov/investor/pubs/bankrupt.htm

[acintra]

CIT's move to bankruptcy court means more instability for struggling retailers facing holidays

By Stephen Manning and Anne D'Innocenzio, AP Business Writers
On 12:09 am EST, Monday November 2, 2009

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The bankruptcy of a key lender that helps retailers stock their shelves is adding to the industry's worries ahead of the critical holiday shopping season.

CIT Group Inc. filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection Sunday in New York after months of struggling to avoid collapse. The company provides badly needed credit to thousands of small and mid-sized businesses, and is a critical part of the flow of capital in the retail sector.

CIT stressed that its lending operations will continue to operate as it proceeds through bankruptcy with the hope of shedding $10 billion in debt. Chairman and CEO Jeffrey M. Peek said the company's prepackaged reorganization plan "will allow CIT to continue to provide funding to our small business and middle market customers, two sectors that remain vitally important to the U.S. economy."

But retail groups and analysts warn that the case will likely add to the instability in the retail sector. CIT is an important source of capital, working with 2,000 vendors that supply merchandise to more than 300,000 stores. About 60 percent of the apparel industry depends on CIT for financing.

In the last few weeks, the nation's stores have begun filling their floors with holiday merchandise, but they still need a reliable source of lending to prevent shipping disruptions and to restock after the holidays. Even one day that vendors are cut off from much-needed financing could create a bottleneck, resulting in shipments of merchandise left on docks or in vendors' warehouses.

CIT expects to emerge from bankruptcy by the end of the year, but a dragged-out case or any glitches could further disrupt the already tight credit markets for retailers, said Joe Alouf, a partner with Eaglepoint Advisors, a crisis management company that is partly owned by Kurt Salmon Associates.

"CIT is the 600-pound gorilla in the industry," Alouf said.

Craig Sherman, vice president of government affairs at the National Retail Federation, thinks the industry "dodged a bullet on the holiday season" for the most part, because most merchandise is in stores' distribution centers. However, he said CIT's woes could throw a wrench in ordering for the important 2010 spring season. NRF officials say that as stores prepare for a rebound in consumer spending next year, access to credit is very important.

Harold Reichwald, co-chair of law firm Manatt, Phelps & Phillips' banking group, said that CIT's case will likely force the company's customers to look elsewhere for financing.

"If I was a small businessman, I would say to myself, 'I have to find alternatives,'" Reichwald said. "In this marketplace, there isn't a lot of alternatives."

CIT's Chapter 11 filing is one of the biggest in U.S. corporate history, following Lehman Brothers, Washington Mutual, WorldCom and General Motors. The bankruptcy filing shows $71 billion in finance and leasing assets against total debt of $64.9 billion. The move wipes out current holders of its common and preferred stock, meaning the U.S. government will likely lose the $2.3 billion in taxpayer funds it sunk into CIT last year to prop up the company.

The government could have lost billions more, however, had it not declined to hand over more aid to the company earlier this year. Treasury Department spokesman Andrew Williams said Sunday that the government will be closely monitoring the bankruptcy proceedings, but acknowledged that "recovery to preferred and common equityholders will be minimal."

CIT had been trying to fend off disaster for several months and narrowly avoided collapse in July. It had struggled to find funding as sources it previously relied on, such as short-term debt, evaporated during the credit crisis. The company pulled back sharply on lending to businesses as it tried to preserve cash. According to its most recent quarterly earnings report, the company originated just $4.4 billion worth of new business during the first six months of 2009, compared with $11.3 billion in the first half of 2008.

The company received $4.5 billion in credit from its own lenders and bondholders last week, reportedly made a deal with Goldman Sachs to lower debt payments and negotiated a $1 billion line of credit from billionaire investor and bondholder Carl Icahn. But the company failed to persuade bondholders to support a debt-exchange offer, a step that would have trimmed at least $5.7 billion from its debt burden and given CIT more time to pay off what it owes.

Ever since CIT's troubles flared up last summer, the retail industry has carefully monitored the lender, with many vendors scrambling to find alternative financing at rivals like Rosenthal & Rosenthal. But finding a replacement hasn't been easy because competitors can only take on so many more clients. Moreover, while large publicly traded companies with sales of more than $2 billion have found the credit market loosening up in recent months, small and medium-based companies have largely found themselves shut out, Alouf said.

The big question is how long CIT will remain under court protection. A prepackaged bankruptcy, which has the support of major bondholders, speeds up the process of restructuring CIT's debt and could help it exit court protection in a matter of months. A swift exit by the holidays could alleviate some retailers' worries.

D'Innocenzio reported from New York.

[acintra]

Outra opinião e que pode explicar porque é que os mercados poderão reagir menos negativamente á falencia do CIT.

Nov 1st 2009 at 5:45PMText SizeAAAFiled under: CIT Group, Goldman Sachs , Citigroup
More

I would like to congratulate the Obama administration for drawing the right line in the sand. Unlike the Bush administration, Obama did not permit a $639 billion bankruptcy -- Lehman Brothers -- whose collapse nearly caused social chaos as people lost confidence in their money market funds. With today's CIT Group (CIT) bankruptcy filing, the U.S. will lose $2.3 billion in TARP money, but with $71 billion in assets, CIT will keep operating and global panic will not follow.

As I posted previously, CIT Group makes loans to about a million small businesses like Dunkin' Brands franchises. Those businesses need capital to operate and they can't get it very easily by accessing public debt and equity markets. So lenders like CIT Group really matter to them. But the company got distracted by subprime mortgages and student loans and it is likely to scale back to its core business of lending to small and medium sized business.

In the pre-packaged bankruptcy, Carl Icahn is providing $1 billion to fund operations while it reorganizes through a debtor-in-possession loan until the end of 2009 -- when Bloomberg reports -- CIT Group expects to emerge from bankruptcy. Bondholders -- 85 percent of whom voted their $30 billion in favor of the deal -- will receive about 70 cents on the dollar according to DealBook. The U.S.'s $2.3 billion in preferred stock and common shareholders' stock will be wiped out.

I think that investors should derive confidence from this announcement. That's because it proves that the private capital markets can function well enough without government assistance to allow a company to fail without government intervention. Unfortunately taxpayers will lose $2.3 billion (out of $700 billion in TARP money) in the process.

But the real problem is that bigger TARP recipients -- like Citigroup (C) -- could be in greater danger, according to the New York Times. However, the U.S. has decided that the cost of their failure cannot be born by free markets. So they're still too big to fail. And the U.S. taxpayer may need to throw more good money after bad to prop them up.

An interesting footnote to this deal: up until last Friday, as I posted early last month, Goldman Sachs Group (GS).was poised to pull in a cool $1 billion if CIT went bankrupt. But on October 30th, CNNMoney reports that Goldman and CIT reached an agreement in which CIT would reduce the size of its Goldman loan to $2.125 billion from $3 billion.

In exchange, CIT will pay Goldman a mere $535 million -- including a termination fee of $285 million and collateral of $250 million. That looks much better than the cool $1 billion Goldman would have gotten.

Peter Cohan is a management consultant, Babson professor and author of eight books including, You Can't Order Change. Follow him on Twitter. He owns Citi shares and has no financial interest in the other securities mentioned.

[salvadorveiga]

Oh Marco, onde anda aquele teu link a falar destas cenas, acho que dava jeito aqui

[tr447]

tenho algumas ações e estou a perder como é obvio.
se eu ficar com elas o que acontece? os titulos vão ser suspensos?? continuam a negociar?
e se forem suspensos vão estar fora de negociação quanto tempo? todod o periodo de falencia se alguem souber como estas quesões são tratadas, agardecia que postasse

[salvadorveiga]

eu tenho algumas...
estou com perdas na ordem dos 50%, que deverá acontecer amanha quando os mercados abrirem?
o que aconselham?
obrigado

provavelmente abrem a perder 80% ou mais...

edit: quer dizer, ela ja ta tao baixa que a falencia ja devia tar descontada... ate agora os mercados n abriram mas no pre.market esta' a perder 12%

[soil]

eu tenho algumas...
estou com perdas na ordem dos 50%, que deverá acontecer amanha quando os mercados abrirem?
o que aconselham?
obrigado

[MERCW125]

Mais uma que irá certamente para OTC.
Certamente iremos ver esta acção perto de 0.01 ou menos em OTC. Aí quem sonho ter milhoes delas poderá faze-lo em OTC.

[salvadorveiga]

aqui fica:

[salvadorveiga]

Nada de novo... ja se dizia ha uns bons meses que a proxima onda teria que ver com commercial mortgages, entre outros... há muitos contratos a nivel comercial a terem reset neste ultimo trimestre de 2009.

[acintra]

[quote="acintra"][quote]CIT Group seeks prepackaged reorganization in New York bankruptcy court

Sunday November 1, 2009

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Lender CIT Group has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, in an effort to restructure its debt while trying to keep loans flowing to the thousands of mid-sized and small businesses.


CIT made the filing in New York bankruptcy court Sunday, after a debt-exchange offer to bondholders failed. CIT said in a statement that its bondholders have overwhelmingly approved a prepackaged reorganization plan which will reduce total debt by $10 billion while allowing the company to continue to do business.

"The decision to proceed with our plan of reorganization will allow CIT to continue to provide funding to our small business and middle market customers, two sectors that remain vitally important to the U.S. economy," said Jeffrey M. Peek, chairman and CEO. Peek has said he plans to step down at the end of the year.

CIT's move will wipe out current holders of its common and preferred stock, likely meaning the U.S. government will lose the $2.3 billion it sunk into CIT last year to prop up the ailing company. The government could have lost billions more, however, had it not declined to hand over more aid to the company earlier this year.

The Chapter 11 filing is one of the biggest in U.S. corporate history. CIT's bankruptcy filing shows $71 billion in finance and leasing assets against total debt of $64.9 billion. Its collapse is the latest in a string of huge cases driven by the financial crisis over the past two years, as bailed out industry heavyweights like General Motors and Chrysler both entered bankruptcy court.

CIT has been trying to fend off disaster for several months and narrowly avoided collapse in July. It has struggled to find funding as sources it previously relied on, such as short-term debt, evaporated during the credit crisis.

It received $4.5 billion in credit from its own lenders and bondholders last week, reportedly made a deal with Goldman Sachs to lower debt payments, and negotiated a $1 billion line of credit from billionaire investor and bondholder Carl Icahn. But the company failed to convince bondholders to support a debt-exchange offer, a step that would have trimmed at least $5.7 billion from its debt burden and given CIT more time to pay off what it owes.

It is unclear what the filing will mean for the nation's small businesses, many of which look to CIT for loans to cover expenses like buying materials at a time when other credit is hard to come by.

Analysts have warned that already ailing sectors, like retailers, could be hit especially hard, since CIT serves as the short-term financier for about 2,000 vendors that supply merchandise to more than 300,000 stores.[/quote]

[acintra]

CIT Group seeks prepackaged reorganization in New York bankruptcy court

Sunday November 1, 2009

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Lender CIT Group has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, in an effort to restructure its debt while trying to keep loans flowing to the thousands of mid-sized and small businesses.


CIT made the filing in New York bankruptcy court Sunday, after a debt-exchange offer to bondholders failed. CIT said in a statement that its bondholders have overwhelmingly approved a prepackaged reorganization plan which will reduce total debt by $10 billion while allowing the company to continue to do business.

"The decision to proceed with our plan of reorganization will allow CIT to continue to provide funding to our small business and middle market customers, two sectors that remain vitally important to the U.S. economy," said Jeffrey M. Peek, chairman and CEO. Peek has said he plans to step down at the end of the year.

CIT's move will wipe out current holders of its common and preferred stock, likely meaning the U.S. government will lose the $2.3 billion it sunk into CIT last year to prop up the ailing company. The government could have lost billions more, however, had it not declined to hand over more aid to the company earlier this year.

The Chapter 11 filing is one of the biggest in U.S. corporate history. CIT's bankruptcy filing shows $71 billion in finance and leasing assets against total debt of $64.9 billion. Its collapse is the latest in a string of huge cases driven by the financial crisis over the past two years, as bailed out industry heavyweights like General Motors and Chrysler both entered bankruptcy court.

CIT has been trying to fend off disaster for several months and narrowly avoided collapse in July. It has struggled to find funding as sources it previously relied on, such as short-term debt, evaporated during the credit crisis.

It received $4.5 billion in credit from its own lenders and bondholders last week, reportedly made a deal with Goldman Sachs to lower debt payments, and negotiated a $1 billion line of credit from billionaire investor and bondholder Carl Icahn. But the company failed to convince bondholders to support a debt-exchange offer, a step that would have trimmed at least $5.7 billion from its debt burden and given CIT more time to pay off what it owes.

It is unclear what the filing will mean for the nation's small businesses, many of which look to CIT for loans to cover expenses like buying materials at a time when other credit is hard to come by.

Analysts have warned that already ailing sectors, like retailers, could be hit especially hard, since CIT serves as the short-term financier for about 2,000 vendors that supply merchandise to more than 300,000 stores.

[acintra]

Isto é capaz de criar algum panico e colocar muitos a pensar que afinal é melhor sair ou então não entrar em acções.

Small business lender seeks court approval for a debt reorganization that has approval of bondholders.

Last Updated: November 1, 2009: 4:24 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- CIT Group Inc., one of the nation's leading funders of small and medium-sized businesses, filed for bankruptcy protection Sunday as part of a reorganization plan that has the support of an overwhelming majority of debtholders.

In a statement, the company said it is asking the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of New York for a quick approval of the prepackaged plan.

"The decision to proceed with our plan of reorganization will allow CIT to continue to provide funding to our small business and middle market customers, two sectors that remain vitally important to the U.S. economy," said CIT (CIT, Fortune 500) chairman Jeffrey M. Peek.

While the required percentage of debtholders approved the prepackaged bankruptcy procedure, the company said it did not receive the required support from bondholders for a $5.9 billion debt exchange offer that would have prevented the Chapter 11 filing.

CIT said it expects the reorganization to total debt by approximately $10 billion, significantly reduce its liquidity needs over the next three years, enhance its capital ratios and accelerate its return to profitability.

Among the efforts to keep CIT afloat in recent months was $2.3 billion in funding from the U.S. government's Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP).