"TAP não sobrevive se se mantiver pública", garante Pinto Luz

[Smile]

Eu também tenho esses spreads, mas contudo é uma boa escola para entender melhor como se passa a acção na cabeça de quem joga neste bicho, eheheh.

Como já tinha dito uma vez ao alex01 muitas das vezes os Call dele falham, mas os indicadores e os pivots de primeira hora sempre ajudam a ver a direcção do mercado e a força dessa mesma direcção...

[Pata-Hari]

Ainda estou um bocado confusa nestes calls e o pior é que terei sempre dificuldade em aplicar isto mesmo que decidisse que isto era um santo graal porque tenho comissões muito elevadas para day trade (spread dos CFDs). De qualquer modo, acho que é giro aprender estas coisas...!

[R_Martins]

... É, meus caros meninos,
se as definições técnicas fossem na língua do Vasco da Gama, já todos percebíamos...
Não precisava de ser com acento da Vidigueira, mas talvez com pronuncia de Niza, que comendo umas e deixando outras, ficávamos perto dos da Beira...
Beijocas e abraços
R. Martins

[Smile]

O B/D é o mínimo da primeira hora, o B/O é máximo da primeira hora... Se continuares a seguir os Call daqui a um pouco já só falas por estes códigos, ehehehehe!

O true Bear ugly é com a maioria dos indicadores da tabela maravilha do mohan em Bear Ugly. Que são Trin>1.3, Vix a subir 1 ou mais, Tick menor -500, Mer a cair 1.5 ou mais...

Para mim a Mer é um pouco difícil de estar logo em Bear Ugly, era necessário um grande sell na abertura. Mas o importante é que esteja bem negativa. E o mercado abra com um gap down.

[Pata-Hari]

opá, esta terminologia dá cabo de mim. O que era o B/D?

E o true bear ugly é quantos indicadores bears?

[Smile]

Eheheh... Eu também duvido um pouco deste Call. Mas o resumo do setup de hoje é um sell day com possibilidade de um Bear Ugly day.

No próximo parágrafo vai uma transcrição do setup de Bear ugly day do dia 25/07/2003. Estou de volta às 14h para acompanhar o setup de hoje com mais atenção.
Já agora sai alguma notícia (indicador) que possa empurrar para um gap down?


As mentioned in the Headline Call, be on the lookout for a Bear Ugly day. Just remember that these initial Bear Ugly signals OCCUR ON THE OPEN with a gap down (usually) and some bad news that gives the market a really heavy feel to it. A Bear Ugly day is NOT JUST based on the High 5. The High Five will exhibit the characteristics of strong bearishness but we are going to look for this to be fully manifest AFTER the first hour. If you see the TRUE Bear Ugly setup occurring then prepare to "Front Run" the market and get short BEFORE the first hour is over. It is not necessary to do this to make a winning trade on the Bear Ugly setups but if you are ASTUTE, understand our Market Call briefings extremely well, and have done it before, then go ahead and attempt a Front Run short if it sets up that way. Good luck.

If the market opens flat to slightly higher or lower and there is SLOW EROSION but not a Bear Ugly, heavy market that is getting hammered, then be ready to Buy the BreakDown if the High 5 are not Ugly at the time of that B/D. This is only valid also if the B/D is the first Hour One pivot hit.

[Pata-Hari]

heheheh, sell off today. Para já futuros estão positivos. Quero ver isto!

[Figas]

Trade Setup Summary for Friday, August 8, 2003:
1) Buy at 974.25/ Sell at 978.00 +3.75 (Buy B/D...Sell at Sell Pivot)

2) Sell at 978.00/ Cover 974.25 +3.75 (Sell Sell Piv./ Cover at B/D)

Recap of Friday's Action:
Good Morning and welcome back from the weekend. Hope it was pleasant and relaxing as possible for you.

We have an exciting week ahead with lots of activity with the various government reports coming out which hopefully will bring some volatility. Check our ECONOMIC CALENDAR shown on our menu.

Our Headline Call on Friday was to look for overall lower early prices to cause the market to rise on Friday. What we got was the lower early push down and then gradual erratic rising in prices but all trading in a rather listless tight range. Using our TCF Trade Setups we were able to scalp 2 good trades out of the mixture but nothing to write home about.

The market at first opened slightly higher right on the Sell Pivot Target. Our normal rule is to ignore the Sell/Buy Pivot target if the market opens right on it and wait for the first hour to finish off. We also had two special criteria for selling the Sell Pivot target which were met later in the session for a short at that target.

Our first TCF Trade setup as recommended was the buying of the BreakDown. This was the first Hour One pivot hit and with the High 5 in a rather neutral state. We just wanted to grab em right at the B/D at 974.25 as shown on the chart. The market ran up as mentioned in a weak fashion and hit the Sell Pivot Target at 978.00. Although this was only a 3.75 move with the current state of the market at the time of the trade we needed to REVERSE and Sell the Sell Pivot target getting out of the long and going short. There were two one minute bars that simultaneously hit the 978.00 price so most of the trades should have been filled. Even if you missed this it was no big deal as Friday's tend to be difficult trading days or good days to stand aside. If you got short you saw a pullback back to the B/D price again and we covered em up and just called it a day.

TICKs were banging on +800-900 all day and this was not a good sign for continued bullishness. In fact this leads us to part of our reasoning for our Headline Call today. In addition to this our call where we would be looking for continued bullishness was based on the idea and hope that we would see lots of bears jumping on any higher prices creating more future rally. Friday showed us that this was NOT the case and that it was a mostly even match with a tendency towards too many Bulls. Because of this and other reasons we are expecting weakness today especially on a higher opening above Friday's 978.00 close and an early push up.

Today's Call & Briefing:
On our Headline Call for today we are expecting the market to sell off. This is a plain and simple call which should occur especially if the market opens HIGHER and runs up first.

Usually on Mondays, which are the most bullish day of the week, when our Headline Call is looking for lower prices we see the early push up, prices "hang up" near the early highs a bit and then take off to the downside just before noon est. Depending on how the opening goes and the absence of a Bear Ugly type day setting up right off the open we will more or less look for the above scenario to pan out.

As mentioned in the recap section the high TICKs banging on the +800-900 area the second day in a row is not a very bullish sign for today. Let's watch the opening price and early first 30 minute moves and see what is being handed to us. We are still in a new "Buy-Up" phase with one of our important TCF Market Force indicators. That does not mean there can't be pullbacks against this upwards direction but we are going to be looking to buy drops overall until the Force changes. One important and interesting factor that contributes to the bullish argument in addition to the others I have given on previous posts is that since the "bottom" low of October 2002 and the low of early March 75% of all stocks have participated in the up move. This is the type of response you get in bull markets not bear markets. Just an important consideration. Let's look for a sell off today using the following parameters.

TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: First off we want to be on alert for an early rally that does not have the support of the NAZ behind it or the TRIN. Often when a market is going to fizzle out later on a Monday we will see an early rally attempt on a higher opening. If this occurs and the BreakOut is the first Hour One Pivot hit then we will be prepared to Sell the B/O. Look for NAZ to be trading under +10 points along with the TRIN trading above 1.00 or higher. Follow the other criteria in the manual in relation to the difference between a BreakOut Buy and a BreakOut Sell.

There is a chance that we could have a BreakOut buy today but based on our other indicators this is not expected. If the High Five are bullish but the exact setup for buying the BreakOut is NOT occurring then look to add 2-4 points to the B/O high to go short.

Be on the lookout today for a Bear Ugly day. This occurs when the market opens GAP LOWER with some bad news in the market and we see immediately the High Five take on the characteristics of a Bear Ugly reading. If the BreakDown gets hit first then be cautious about buying the B/D. If it is unclear as to an actual Bear Ugly day or just the High 5 readings then be willing to stand aside. The Market Force indicators are strongly looking for a sell off today which is unusual for a Monday.

Value Area: 975.00 - 978.00
We are closing right at the top of this very tight VA range today and as such it may not provide much information. If we pop up on the open and then after some push higher see prices RETURN TO THE VA then this is a confirmation for our Bearish call today. We would then look for prices to move below the VA and HOLD BELOW 975.00. This will create a bearish mood amongst the institutional traders who tend to use the Value Area and would see them shorting rallies up to the lower end resistance.

Buy Pivot Target: 973.50 - 974.50
No trade at this target today. Range on Friday was too tight. Watch for the -4.25 stop/pivot at 969.25 for the prices to either find support or head lower upon breaking this level.

Sell Pivot Target: 981.25 - 980.25
No trade at this pivot today. With the tight Friday ranges this Sell Pivot is not far enought away to create a good short. We will need to watch the +4.25 stop/pivot at 985.50 for resistance. If the market opens below this Sell Pivot and then runs up here but finds big resistance at 985.50 then we may want to sell em. We can wait for the first hour to finish and then compare the numbers generated off the Hour One pivots before entering short if that appears more prudent. Are we prudent as S&P500 traders? That word doesn't seem to fit the "fastest game in town". LOL.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 979.60
Well, this has been like a 3 Ringed Circus with the "Pit Bull" constantly crossing over and then headed back to the "indecision" Line in the Sand stage. You can see how prices hug this number when there is confusion or the market is not sure of directional bias. We are closing right under this Pit Bull and if our Headline Call is correct for today we are going to peel off a bunch of handles as they head lower.

Pro Trader's Action
We are getting clear signals for a sell off today. At least we are expecting any early rally to fizzle out and move back towards the opening.

In our business that is THE SAME as a market drop. If they rally and pullback to even we make the same amount (assuming we got short) as if they opened flat and had a big down day. However, we are looking for a down day today. So let's see what happens.

Caution in watching for a Bear Ugly day on the opening area. Please be aware that with Monday's if our Headline Call is going to be wrong then we will have all the setup symptoms occur for a BreakOut Buy and the market will rally. If we get a sell off near the OPENING AREA then the day is going to take on the characteristics of a Bear Ugly setup. We will know more when we get to the opening and see how they fly.

Let's get the week off to a good start and look for a setup to ideally get short from. All the best of luck and success. I'll see you in the action. Mohan

[Figas]

August 11, 2003