Ao minuto: EUA atacam Irão. Teerão perto de fechar Estreito de Ormuz

[The Mechanic]

scpnuno

(pra ser bem, era uma foto do Obamy a cavalo num touro...já que ele tem um cão português, não se arranja maneira de ele vir a uma tourada? pelo que se tem visto nos mercados, deve ser o desporto favorito do moço)

"...IT`S ALIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIVVVE !!!!!! "


Olha quem ela é ..... Onde tens andado , quem não te ponho a vista em cima vái pra 5 meses ?!!??!


Beijinhos !

The Mechanic

[scpnuno]

( O "Bull" só tem um chifre ...mas serve ! )

Um abraço ,

The Mechanic

(pra ser bem, era uma foto do Obamy a cavalo num touro...já que ele tem um cão português, não se arranja maneira de ele vir a uma tourada? pelo que se tem visto nos mercados, deve ser o desporto favorito do moço)

[The Mechanic]

Booom ! Os Futuros dispararam logo em flecha . O S&P que andava ali a marinar nos 994 a manhã toda, saltou logo para os 1006 pontos.
E ainda me dizem que as noticias não tem reacção nos Mercados.

Bons indicadores para o bull...!


( O "Bull" só tem um chifre ...mas serve ! )

Um abraço ,

The Mechanic

[dvck]

U.S. Job Cuts Slowed, Unemployment Rate Fell as Recession Eased
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By Shobhana Chandra

Aug. 7 (Bloomberg) -- The pace of U.S. job losses slowed more than expected last month and the unemployment rate dropped for the first time since April 2008, the clearest sign yet that the worst recession since the Great Depression is easing.

Payrolls fell by 247,000, after a 443,000 loss in June, the Labor Department said today in Washington. The jobless rate dropped to 9.4 percent from 9.5 percent.

Companies from Boeing Co. to Verizon Communications Inc. continue to cut costs, signaling that a rebound in hiring will take time to develop even as Obama administration stimulus efforts take hold. A jobless rate that is projected to exceed 10 percent by early 2010, stagnant wages and falling home values mean a lack of consumer spending will curb an economic recovery.

“We have in motion a turnaround in the labor market,” James O’Sullivan, a senior economist at UBS Securities LLC in Stamford, Connecticut, said before the report. “For a sustained pickup in consumption, we need a sustained improvement in the job market, and hopefully, that’s in process now.”

Revisions added 43,000 from payroll figures previously reported for June and May.

The latest numbers brought total jobs lost since the recession began in December 2007 to about 6.7 million, the biggest decline in any post-World War II economic slump.

Payrolls were forecast to drop 325,000 after a 467,000 decline initially reported for June, according to the median of 82 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Estimates ranged from decreases of 150,000 to 460,000. Job losses peaked at 741,000 in January, the most since 1949.

Factory Payrolls

The jobless rate was projected to rise to 9.6 percent from 9.5 percent. Forecasts ranged from 9.2 percent to 9.8 percent. A separate Bloomberg survey last month showed unemployment may exceed 10 percent by early next year and average 9.8 percent for all of 2010.

Today’s report showed factory payrolls fell 52,000, the fewest in a year, after decreasing 131,000 in the prior month. Economists forecast a drop of 100,000.

The drop came even as 28,200 jobs were created in the auto manufacturing and parts industries. The improvement reflected the return of workers at automakers General Motors Co. and Chrysler Group LLC, both of which have exited bankruptcy.

GM may have to cut more U.S. hourly jobs after an offer of buyouts and early retirements fell about 7,500 workers short of the reorganized automaker’s target.

Payrolls at builders fell 76,000 after decreasing 86,000. Financial firms decreased payrolls by 13,000.

Service Industries

Service industries, which include banks, insurance companies, restaurants and retailers, subtracted 119,000 workers after losing 220,000 the month before. Retail payrolls decreased by 44,100.

Government payrolls increased by 7,000 after falling 48,000 the prior month.

Today’s report also showed the average work week expanded to 33.1 hours in July from 33 hours in the prior month. Average weekly hours worked by production workers increased to 39.8 hours from 39.5 hours, while overtime held at 2.9 hours for a second month. That brought the average weekly earnings up to $614.34 from $611.49.

Workers’ average hourly wages rose 3 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $18.56 from the prior month. Hourly earnings were 2.5 percent higher than July 2008. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had forecast a 0.1 percent increase from the prior month and a 2.5 percent gain for the 12-month period.

Consumer Spending

Even so, economists predict consumer spending, which accounts for 70 percent of the economy, will be slow to gain speed. Wages and salaries fell 4.7 percent in the 12 months through June, the biggest drop since records began in 1960, according to Commerce Department data issued this week.

Companies like Verizon and Boeing are still looking to trim expenses through cutbacks in staff. New York-based telephone carrier Verizon last month said it plans to slash more than 8,000 jobs in the second half of the year.

Chicago-based Boeing, which is planning to eliminate about 10,000 workers, or 6 percent of its labor force, has agreed to allow some machinists to volunteer for a “layoff with benefits” to help mitigate job cuts, the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers said on July 28.

Emerson Electric Co., a maker of industrial equipment, will cut an additional 5,000 to 6,000 positions in the next few quarters, after it posted its third straight drop in quarterly earnings, the longest stretch since 2002. The St. Louis-based company has already eliminated 20,000 jobs.

‘Very Difficult’

“Emerson is still seeing very difficult and challenging times around the world,” Chief Executive Officer David Farr said on a conference call on Aug. 4.

Administration officials including Lawrence Summers, director of the White House National Economic Council, predict most new jobs under President Barack Obama’s stimulus program will come only in 2010. Less than 10 percent of the $787 billion plan goes to job creation this year, and the government still expects to save or create at least 3 million jobs, Summers said in an NBC television interview on Aug. 2.

The unemployment rate may not peak until the second half of 2010, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said on ABC last week, even as the economy shows signs of improvement. Another extension in unemployment benefits “is something that the administration and Congress are going to look very carefully at as we get closer to the end of this year,” Geithner said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Shobhana Chandra in Washington schandra1@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: August 7, 2009 08:30 EDT

Taxa de desemprego cai inesperadamente nos EUA

[paubo]

AIG 2Q EPS EX-ITEMS $2.57; EST. $1.50
um resultado que parece com algum interesse

[- GOE -]

A que horas (portuguesas) saem esses dados do emprego? Obrigado.

13:30h

[Laaz Rockit]

A que horas (portuguesas) saem esses dados do emprego? Obrigado.

[The Mechanic]

Nada como uma abertura vermelhusca pela manhã , pra depois virar a verde ...( espero eu !)

Os earnings tem estado meio insipentes . A Verisign obteve ontem bons resultados face ao ano passado, mas isso não parece ter aimado muito o NDX . Hoje saem resultados como a AIG ( esperados lucros de 1,67 "antes de almoço " ), mas não é por aí que vamos hoje ...

... saem hoje dados sobre o estado geral do Emprego nos EUA .
Se há dados que interessam e fazem mover os Mercados, estes são talvez os mais importantes , uma vez que são a justa medida sobre os estado Economico do país, bem como da direcção que as coisas estão a tomar . Isto mostra quem tem emprego, quem procura emprego, quanto estão a ganhar , quanto estão a trabalhar e quais os sectores da actividade economica que estão a bombar ou estão a regredir .

Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M change

Anterior ( -467,000 )
Esperado ( -300,000 )
Range ( -375,000 a -190,000 )

Unemployment Rate
Anterior - 9.5 %
Esperado - 9.7 %
Range - 9.5 % to 9.8 %

Isto faz mecher !

E se for pra cima, o Bull volta a dar mais um passo em frente, depois dos muitos que tem dado.
Se for pra baixo, os Bear dizem logo ( quase 6 meses depois, que poderiam ser 12 ou 38 , pelos vistos... ) : " ...eu não disse que isto ía pra baixo ?!!! ...agora é que a Euronext vái mudar as regras e permitir que as cotações evoluam negativamente !!! 2%..1%...0%...-3%!! ...-7% !!! shortar !!! shortar!!! "
O Midas e o Creepy desatam logo a estrabuchar e espumar da boca , tal a excitação ...

( é a brincar, Creepy - o Midas nem deve ler , que está de férias - )


Um abraço ,

The Mechanic

[paubo]

Dados UK :
PPI Input MoM : -1.4% (esp. -0.8%),
PPI Input YoY: -12.2% (esp. -10.9%),
PPI Output MoM : 0.3% (esp. 0.0%),
PPI Output YoY : -1.3% (esp. -1.7%)

[MAV8]

Então e por cá???

A galp apresenta resultados hoje? Alguém sabe quais as prespectivas?

[president]

05 Aug 2009 at 14:31:12 (GMT)
Dados Petroleo : Crude : 1670k (esp. 600k), Gasolina : -218k (esp. -800k), DEstilada : -1136k (esp. 1225k), capacidade Refinação : -0.03% (esp. -0.20%)

[president]

Dados USA :
ISM Non_Manf. Composite : 46.4 (esp. 48.0),
Factory Orders : 0.4% (esp. -0.8%)

[Algarvio__]

Luka, dito de outra forma:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. private employers axed more jobs in July but at the slowest pace since October, offering a glimmer of hope the labor market is stabilizing.

U.S. companies shed 371,000 jobs in July, compared with a revised 463,000 drop in June, a report by a private employment service said on Wednesday.

The June decline was originally reported at 473,000.

The median of estimates from 26 economists polled by Reuters for the ADP Employer Services report, jointly developed with Macroeconomic Advisers LLC, was for 345,000 private-sector jobs lost in July.

"It is of course worse than expected, but the number is well off its highs, indicating modest improvement in the labor market," said Dan Greenhaus, an analyst with Miller Tabak & Co. in New York.

The ADP figure is a proxy for some analysts for the government's non-farm payroll reading.

The U.S. Labor Department will release its employment data at 8:30 a.m. (1230 GMT) on Friday. The median forecast for non-farm payrolls is for a decline of 320,000 in July, compared with a 467,000 drop in June.

(Reporting by Richard Leong and Ryan Vlastelica, Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

É impressionante a manipulação que se faz da análise dos números.
É claro que este tipo de estratégia é utilizada por todo o mundo, nas mais diversas situações, mas talvez por isso, me custe ainda mais a acreditar e aceitar que as pessoas "comam" estas análises, sem pensar.

Perdem-se mais 370.000 empregos nos sector privado, o que é pior que o valor esperado. Mas afinal está tudo bem porque foram menos que no mês anterior...

Na minha opinião, a comparação com o mês anterior, sendo importante, é a menos válida. É mais relevante a comparação com as expectativas dos analistas (assumindo que estes são sérios), por 2 razões:
1) A sua análise baseia-se na evolução recente da economia e perspectivas futuras. Assim, se os número foi pior, significa que a economia estará em pior forma;
2) O abrandamento no aumento de desempregados é um fenómeno expecatável. A economia não pode cair a um ritmo cada vez mais acelerado para sempre, destruindo empregos, senão, no limite, desaparecia, o que não é verosimel.

Na minha opinião, antecipando as bolsas a evolução da economia, terão antecipado a recuperação em demasia, e ainda terão que vir para baixo para se nivelarem num ponto mais realista

[paubo]

Dados USA :
ADP Employment Change: -371k (esp. -350k)

[Luka!]

Dados desemprego Americano , piores do que o esperado ...

NEW YORK, 5 août (Reuters) - Le secteur privé américain a supprimé 371.000 emplois en juillet, montre l'enquête mensuelle publiée mercredi par le cabinet de services aux entreprises ADP.

Ce chiffre est supérieur aux attentes puisque les économistes interrogés par Reuters anticipaient en moyenne 345.000 suppressions de postes;

[president]

Dados USA : MBA Mortgage Aplications : 4.4% (anterior -6.3%)


edit:
Dados USA : ADP Employment Change: -371k (esp. -350k)

[paubo]

Dados ZonaEuro:
EuroZone Retail Sales MoM : -0.2% (esp 0.3%),
Retail Sales YoY : -2.4% (esp. -2.2%)

[paubo]

Dados Uk :
Manufacturing Production MoM : 0.4% (esp. -0.1%), Manufacturing Production YoY : -11.7% (esp. -12.1%)
PMI SErvices : 53.2 (esp. 51.8),
Industrial Production MoM : 0.5% (esp. 0.0%), Industrial Production YoY :-11.1 (esp. -11.4%)

[paubo]

Dados ZonaEuro ;
PMI Services : 45.7 (esp. 45.6),
PMI Composite : 47.0 (esp. 46.8)

[Elias]

Eu costumo ver aqui: http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/ecalendar/index.html

[paubo]

existem algumas plataformas no mercado que vao lançando estes dados. gobulling,best, bigonline, etc...

[Lacrau]

Dados EUA :
Personal Income : -1.3% (esp. -1.0%),
Personal Spending : 0.4% (esp. 0.3%),
PCE Deflator YoY : -0.4% (esp. 0.2%),
PCE Core MoM : 0.2% (esp. 0.2%),
PCE Core YoY : 1.5% (esp. 1.7%)

Já agora aproveitava para perguntar onde o "paubo" vai bucar essa informação do dia....

O Negocios costuma trazer isso no fim da página, mas está bastante desatualizado....será das férias ?

[paubo]

Dados EUA :
Personal Income : -1.3% (esp. -1.0%),
Personal Spending : 0.4% (esp. 0.3%),
PCE Deflator YoY : -0.4% (esp. 0.2%),
PCE Core MoM : 0.2% (esp. 0.2%),
PCE Core YoY : 1.5% (esp. 1.7%)

[paubo]

Dados ZonaEuro:
EuroZone PPI YoY : -6.6% (esp. -6.6%),
EuroZone PPI MoM : 0.3% (esp. 0.2%

[Elias]

Saíram agora dados nos states, acima do valor esperado (consensus) e no limite superior do intervalo.