Alívio no IRS poderá ser superior a 400 euros

[Fenicio]

Da mesma forma que o mundo não vive sem o petróleo do Irão, o Irão não vive sem os dólares e os euros do mundo.

O preço do barril até pode subir, mas a "torneira" do Irão não pode fechar, sob o risco do país morrer à fome.

[EuroVerde]

El primer ministro israelí, Benjamín Netanyahu, aprovechará su visita del próximo martes a Washington para solicitar a la Administración del presidente estadounidense, Barack Obama, bombas antibúnker de última generación para un eventual ataque contra las instalaciones nucleares iraníes, según informó este domingo 'The Sunday Times'.

Hace unos meses publicábamos en esta web después de asistir a un encuentro anual de gestores y analistas profesionales en EEUU, que algunos modelos operativos que manejaban estos inversores cualificados reflejaban la posibilidad de un ataque preventivo de Israel a las instalaciones nucleares iranís, con unas proyecciones bajistas en los mercados financieros muy importantes.

De producirse este hecho, las reacciones inmediatas de los mercados serían un descenso brusco y pronunciado de las bolsas a nivel mundial por la subida previsible de las primas de riesgo, un proceso de huída hacia la calidad a activos como el oro, e incrementos inmediatos y pronunciados del precio del petróleo.

En este sentido nos gustaría recordar las palabras que el secretario general de la OPEP, realizó hace ya tiempo:

El Secretario General de la OPEP, Abdalá Salem El-Badri, ha comentado que es imposible reemplazar la producción de Irán, productor número dos de la OPEP. En la presentación del informe sobre las perspectivas de largo plazo de la OPEP, El-Badri ha comentado que un ataque sobre Irán podría elevar los precios a un nivel ilimitado.

La producción de Irán alcanza los 4 millones de barriles de petróleo al día, es decir el 10 por ciento de la producción de la OPEP.

[habanero04]

Deve ser mais uma desculpa para continuar com os negócios da guerra e seus derivados e da vénia a Israel, tal como o foi a invasão do Iraque...

O célebre relatório do governo inglês "iraq’s weapons of mass destruction" revelou-se um flop, foi apenas uma desculpa para terem o motivo para irem em frente com a invasão. Não há provas da existência dessas armas, nem dos túneis de Bagdad, e as forças armadas iraquianas não tinham capacidade e os meios de que dispunham eram obsoletos.

http://www.number10.gov.uk/Page271

[atomez]

Depois de um longo período de acalmia, os media internacionais não param de falar no assunto...

Independentemente de um ataque ou não, a simples adopção de sanções a doer, como um bloqueio às exportações de petróleo iranianas, terá impacto nos mercados.

Iran ‘has secret nuclear arms plan’

Published: September 29 2009 22:32 | Last updated: September 29 2009 22:32

Britain’s intelligence services say that Iran has been secretly designing a nuclear warhead “since late 2004 or early 2005”, an assessment that suggests Tehran has embarked on the final steps towards acquiring nuclear weapons capability.

As world powers prepare to confront Iran on Thursday on its nuclear ambitions, the Financial Times has learnt that the UK now judges that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, ordered the resumption of the country’s weapons programme four years ago.

Iran is already under pressure after the revelation last week that it has been building an undeclared site to enrich uranium.

The UK’s assessment of Iran’s clandestine weapons programme will now add to concerns over Tehran’s capability, suggesting it could be making faster-than-expected progress on its nuclear project.

By contrast, US intelligence services remain firm in their conclusion that while Iran may ultimately want a bomb, the country halted weapons design work in 2003 and probably has not restarted that effort as of 2007.

The US published this judgment in a National Intelligence Estimate in 2007 amid claims that the CIA was scarred by its errors over Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction programme.

Britain has always privately expressed scepticism about the US assessment on Iran but is only now firmly asserting that the weapons programme restarted in 2004-05.

Iran’s chief nuclear official on Tuesday ruled out any discussions in Thursday’s talks with world powers over the country’s nuclear programme.

[habanero04]

http://www.irpedia.com/

[atomez]

'We may have to attack Iran by Dec.'

Israel will be compelled to attack Iran's nuclear facilities if Western powers do not impose serious sanctions against Teheran by the end of 2009, former deputy defense minister Ephraim Sneh said on Wednesday.

"We cannot live under the shadow of an Iran with nuclear weapons," he was quoted as telling Reuters in an interview on a visit to the UK. "By the end of the year, if there is no agreement on crippling sanctions aimed at this regime, we will have no choice."

Sneh reportedly stressed that a military strike would be "the very, very last resort. But ironically it is our best friends and allies who are pushing us into a corner where we would have no option but to do it."

"I wonder if they will [put a tougher sanctions regime in place] quickly enough. If not, we are compelled to take action."

Só me admiro é que ainda falem neste assunto...

Porque isto é o tipo de coisas que não se dizem - fazem-se. E mai nada.

A situação só pode conduzir a um resultado:

- ou as potências ocidentais impõem sanções a sério, incluindo um embargo às exportações de petróleo com bloqueio naval e aéreo e aí o Irão retalia

- ou isso não é feito e Israel ataca o Irão

Ambos os casos conduzirão uma guerra regional na região do mundo com maiores reservas e produção de petróleo, com efeitos imprevisíveis em todos os mercados.

[KeyserSoze]

Jornal britânico diz que Mossad está implicada no desaparecimento do Arctic Sea

por Agência Lusa, Publicado em 06 de Setembro de 2009

O cargueiro Arctic Sea, que desapareceu no mês de Julho no Oceano Atlântico, era seguido pela Mossad, os serviços secretos israelitas, já que transportava armas com destino ao Irão, noticiou hoje o Sunday Times.

O jornal britânico cita fontes russas e israelitas, que asseguram que o barco levava a bordo mísseis S-300, o modelo russo mais avançado de mísseis terra-ar, que foram levados para o Arctic Sea quando este esteve fundeado no porto russo de Kaliningrado para ser submetido a uma série de reparações técnicas.

O Arctic Sea, que oficialmente transportava madeira da Finlândia para a Argélia, desapareceu nos finais de Julho e foi descoberto no dia 16 de Agosto perto de Cabo Verde.

As autoridades militares russas anunciaram que o cargueiro está a ser rebocado para o porto russo de Novorrossiski, no Mar Negro, onde deverá ser sujeito a uma vistoria, mas não precisaram a data da chegada.

Onze dos quinze tripulantes russos do navio regressaram a casa, na cidade de Arkhanguelsk, e estão proibidos de fazer qualquer tipo de declarações. Os familiares dos que continuam no cargueiro, bem como dos marinheiros e oficiais do navio de guerra Ladnii, que escolta o Arctic Sea, queixam-se de não poder entrar em contacto com eles.

Os oito piratas, que alegadamente desviaram o navio no Mar Báltico, estão detidos num estabelecimento prisional especial do Serviço Federal de Segurança da Rússia.

O Kremlin negou que o barco levasse uma carga secreta e insiste que se tratou de um sequestro, no qual os piratas exigiram um resgate de 1,5 milhões de dólares.

A versão do Sunday Times assinala que a extensa operação de resgate que se pôs em marcha na Rússia para encontrar o cargueiro revela a preocupação que o Governo russo tinha pelo caso e que se elaborou uma história falsa para evitar uma situação embaraçosa.

"A versão oficial é ridícula e elaborou-se uma história para que o Kremlin salvasse a pele", disse uma fonte militar russa, que assegurou ainda que falou "com gente próxima à investigação, que confirmou a grande implicação da Mossad no caso".

A mesma fonte indicou que os sequestradores são criminosos que não sabiam nada sobre a carga secreta e foram utilizados como bodes expiatórios.

O jornalista russo Mikhailm Voitenko, que denunciou o desaparecimento do navio, indicou que o cargueiro se encontra entre sábado e hoje ao largo de Lisboa, informação que a Marinha portuguesa já desmentiu.

http://www.ionline.pt/conteudo/21553-jo ... arctic-sea

[tonirai]

Hummm...será para poderem tratar das 70 virgens que lhes prometem no além quando se tornam mártires?

Pois... mas o problema é que não é só para eles, também é para elas!

Mas... alguém sabe se estarão a pensar exportar o produto?

[razalas]

Hummm...será para poderem tratar das 70 virgens que lhes prometem no além quando se tornam mártires?

[KeyserSoze]

Hamas accuses Israel of dumping aphrodisiac gum on Gaza

Hamas suspects that Israeli intelligence services are supplying its Gaza Strip stronghold with chewing gum that boosts the sex drive in order to "corrupt the young," an official has said.

Published: 1:17AM BST 15 Jul 2009

"We have discovered two types of stimulants that were introduced into the Gaza Strip from Israeli border crossings," Hamas police spokesman Islam Shahwan said.

"The first type is presented in the form of chewing gum and the second in the form of drops," he said.

The Islamist movement that has run the densely populated and impoverished Palestinian territory for the past two years said it has detained members of a gang that helped to bring in the products.

"They admitted during the investigation they were linked to the Zionist intelligence services," he said.

One suspect said he had received the products from an Israeli intelligence officer at a cut-rate price "with the officer saying they did not want money, but to distribute the products among the young people of Gaza," Mr Shahwan said.

"The intelligence services are aiming to corrupt the young generation by distributing these products among students."

The story came to light after a Palestinian man filed a complaint that his daughter had experienced "dubious side effects" after chewing the offending gum, Israeli media reported.

The Israeli military declined to comment officially on the allegations, which one military source termed "absurd."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... -Gaza.html

[razalas]

Talvez isto lhes diga alguma coisa:

Obama reviu a sua estratégia militar e desbloqueou 17 milhões de dólares para serem investidos na área da ciberguerra e da ciberespionagem.

Na minha opinião, alguem anda a fumentar uma guerra civil no Irão.

Porreiro, eles brincam um bocadito aos mortos e deixam o ocidente em paz.

Talvez assim o meu filho não tenha de andar um dia mais tarde de cu para o ar.

Mas que era o que a europa merecia lá isso era.

[jotabilo]

Caro Cananeu (viajante)

Eu não estou a criticar nada. Apenas afirmei que as notícias "a monte" são apenas notícias....meras fotos de uma realidade que gostaria de conhecer de uma forma mais estruturada.
Assim....como disse...é uma simples nuvem colóidal que me deixa apenas perturbado na percepçao da realidade....não sei se me fiz entender.

cumps

[Fenicio]

Caros

E depois têm tb de saber o que são origem de notícias e fontes de informação.
E saber o método a utilizar para classificar notícias....grau de verosimilhança, natureza da origem de notícias....and so on....
E saber quais os elementos essenciais de informação(EEI)...em face de um fim delineado....
Um Plano de pesquisa.....

"o diabo a quatro é o que é"

Enfim métodos consistentes para se definir um bom sistema de informação.

Agora amandar umas bitaitadas para armar ao pingarelho....não me chega.


cumps

Apesar dos teus 2 posts, confesso que ainda não percebi o teu ponto.

Estás a criticar a notícia em si ou a qualidade da notícia?

[jotabilo]

Caros

E depois têm tb de saber o que são origem de notícias e fontes de informação.
E saber o método a utilizar para classificar notícias....grau de verosimilhança, natureza da origem de notícias....and so on....
E saber quais os elementos essenciais de informação(EEI)...em face de um fim delineado....
Um Plano de pesquisa.....

"o diabo a quatro é o que é"

Enfim métodos consistentes para se definir um bom sistema de informação.

Agora amandar umas bitaitadas para armar ao pingarelho....não me chega.


cumps

[keijas]

Resumidamente: O Supremo Lider disse aos manifestantes -- ou param com isso ou levam porrada.

Para quem está farto de levar porrada, para quê parar
se sabem que se pararem levam na mesma.

keijas

[atomez]

Resumidamente: O Supremo Lider disse aos manifestantes -- ou param com isso ou levam porrada.

[jotabilo]

Caros

A informação, sempre que assim o é, é sintética, breve e significativa. Não um estendal de notícias e comentários.
Têm que começar a distinguir uma notícia de uma informação.


cumps

[KeyserSoze]

Iran braced for crucial day

By Jim Muir
Former Tehran correspondent, BBC News

It was an extraordinary speech for extraordinary times.

In his Friday prayers address, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei spoke more frankly than he ever has before about the politics of the Islamic Republic.

But in essence he defended the disputed election victory of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and threw the ball firmly into the court of his challengers, headed by runner-up Mir Hossein Mousavi.

They now face a searing dilemma.

The leader bluntly told them they must call off the massive, if peaceful, street protests they have staged since the election results were declared.

He said they were an illegal and wrong-headed attempt to pressure officials into giving in to their demands, that the protests provided cover for provocateurs to stir violence, and that the political leaders concerned would be responsible for the consequences if they did not stop.

Mr Mousavi and his associates now have a tough decision to take.

So far, their protests have been portrayed as an attempt to correct a perceived electoral injustice.

If they continue, they will immediately become - and be dealt with as - a direct challenge to the supreme leader and the Islamic system which he heads and epitomises.

That may have been implicit before, at least for some of the many thousands who have attached themselves to the protest movement.

But now it is explicit, and the security forces - and their paramilitary auxiliaries such as the Basij militia - may feel free, and indeed obliged, to suppress demonstrations which they have so far largely tolerated.

Is that a step Mr Mousavi is willing to risk taking? Is he ready to confront the whole Islamic system in that way?

On the other hand, if he backs down and calls off the protests, hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of people whose longings for change and reform had been aroused once again, will be left frustrated and disillusioned once more.

Behind the scenes

As the leader pointed out in his address, Mr Mousavi is not an outsider.

He was prime minister for eight years during most of Iran's war with Iraq in the 1980s, when Ayatollah Khamenei himself was president.

Mr Mousavi's close associate and predecessor as leader of the reform movement, former President Mohammad Khatami, never encouraged his many followers to take to the streets to demonstrate people power.

He believed in quiet dialogue behind the scenes - though his efforts at persuasion fell on deaf ears as the hard-liners blocked all his efforts to pursue reform and change.

In his Friday address, the leader had little comfort to offer the protesters apart from repeating that the highly conservative election watchdog, the Council of Guardians, could recount disputed ballot boxes if complaints justify it.

That is far short of what Mr Mousavi and his allies have demanded.

They want at least an independent investigation into the election as a whole, or preferably, its annulment and a re-run.

They maintain that huge numbers of votes simply went missing, so that recounting specific boxes is meaningless.

But Ayatollah Khamenei said it was impossible that fraud could have been carried out on a scale big enough to produce the margin of 11 million votes by which Mr Ahmadinejad was declared to have won.

Potential for chaos

The three defeated candidates are to have a meeting with the Council of Guardians on Saturday to press their grievances.

That encounter, and however it is followed up, could provide the mechanism for a climb-down by one side or the other, though it is highly unlikely the council would agree to the demand for a complete re-run.

If the dissenters pursue what will now clearly be a collision course, the potential for chaos and upheavals is clear.

If they decide to back down and return to the fold, would the protests have achieved nothing at all, and would the hard line pursued by the leader and the re-elected president be consolidated further?

Or has the Islamic leadership been shaken enough by the display of mass public anger to be willing to make some compensatory adjustments in order to keep the peace?

Ayatollah Khamenei made the extraordinary public admission that the policies of Mr Ahmadinejad are closer to his own on some foreign policy, economic and social issues.

He described him as "hard-working and trusted by all."

But at the same time, he said he had chided Mr Ahmadinejad for some of his statements in televised election debates where he had bitterly attacked one of his strongest political adversaries, Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani.

The leader spoke openly of the rift between Mr Rafsanjani and Mr Ahmadinejad, and admitted that his own views were closer to those of the president re-elect.

But at great length, he defended and warmly praised Mr Rafsanjani as a pillar of the Islamic Republic, saying he had known him personally for 52 years as someone who had given and sacrificed everything to the Islamic cause.

During the election campaign, it was no secret that Ayatollah Rafsanjani used his very considerable influence against Mr Ahmadinejad and in favour of the reformist candidate, Mir Hossein Mousavi.

Some Iranian analysts believe that Ayatollah Khamenei feared that a big reformist victory backed by Mr Rafsanjani would sweep Mr Ahmadinejad from the scene and leave the leader himself isolated on such major issues as relations with the United States and Iran's nuclear ambitions.

High stakes

Fears and suspicions have also been voiced that an unchecked Ahmadinejad victory might be followed by purges and crackdowns in which Mr Rafsanjani himself might be politically eliminated.

The leader's prolonged and unstinting tribute to Mr Rafsanjani's continuing and historical status as a pillar of the Islamic system makes that now seem extremely unlikely, unless something very major changes.

Mr Ahmadinejad himself had initially likened the election protests to outbursts by football fans whose team had been beaten.

But on Thursday he made a statement in which he demonstrated considerably more respect for the large mass of people who took to the streets in peaceful and often silent protest.

Whether that would mean that the reformists' views would be taken more into account, and perhaps reflected in the formation of the new government, is of course not clear.

But if a collision on the streets is averted, the scenario shaping up could be this:

• President Ahmadinejad survives, with the support of the leader, and chastened by the impressive outburst of public anger towards him

• Hashemi Rafsanjani survives as a counterbalance, again with the support of the leader despite their acknowledged difference of views on some issues

• The leader himself survives, having re-established balance within the system and reasserted his own position as its arbiter and protector

If that is how the situation is resolved, it may avert a situation of wholesale bloodshed, upheaval and disruption.

But it would also leave millions of Iranians angry and bitterly disillusioned, having had their hopes for change raised and dashed once more.


Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/m ... 109972.stm

Published: 2009/06/19 18:08:05 GMT

[Dwer]

da europa celeste

[Keyser Soze]

este tipo afinal está ao serviço de quem ?

da Europa Terreste ou da Potência Maritima ?


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[atomez]

As coisas podem precipitar-se

A partial call-up of reserves is reported in Syria by Western sources in Lebanon

September 9, 2007

Syria has mobilized armored, missile, air crews and air defense units - partly in readiness for repeats of alleged Israeli incursions of Syrian airspace and partly in response to the partial call-up in Israel which began beginning last Thursday, Sept 6. The Syrian armed forces are on full alert.

Sources report that the silent war of nerves, started after the first Syrian allegation that Israeli bombers had violated of its airspace Thursday, continues.

Jerusalem and Damascus are straining to hold back from an open clash, but voices are rising in the Syrian army urging President Bashar Assad to retaliate militarily to the purported Israeli infringement and come out of his passivity in the face of Israeli incursions. Assaf Shawqat, Syrian military intelligence chief and the president’s brother-in-law, is the most insistent. According to Western sources, he has begun mobilizing his loyalists in the military officers’ corps.

Israeli ministers and spokesmen are under strict orders not to utter a word about the episode. Prime minister Ehud Olmert opened the weekly cabinet session in Jerusalem Sunday, Sept.9, with the remark: “It is not always possible to show one’s cards.” Journalists were kept away from the ministers.

Doubt arises whether this silent poker game can be sustained either by Jerusalem or Damascus in the present state of suspense. Since the “no comments” stratagem serve Israel’s interests most, Syria is likely to make the first move; its call-up of reserves may be a straw in the wind.

...

Asked to comment on Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadenjad's call to wipe Israel off the map, Assad said: "This is freedom of speech. Any person in the world has the right to express himself freely. This is just an expression."

In Rome, meanwhile, Syria’s vice president Farouk a-Shara issued an angry statement Saturday. He said his government is considering responses to Israeli jet flights over Syria and the results will not be long coming.





A fuel tanks witnesses reported seeing fall from an IAF jet near the Turkish border with Syria on Thursday. (Channel 2)

[atomez]

The question is, how will Damascus respond?

Much has been said about and written on this year's "hot summer" in the Middle East. Indeed, Israel, on the one hand, and Syria and Lebanon one the other, have spent the past few months disseminating reports and rumors about preparations for war, while simultaneously issuing warnings to the opposite side.

And today we were party to the first significant military escalation in the region for more than a year. But is this the outbreak of war?

According to reports in Syria, this was clearly an isolated incident, not part of a battle or war. Nevertheless, it does raise a number of questions.

This could well be a one-off that will not develop into anything more, for the time being, but it does send shockwaves across the region. Every Arab media outlet is covering it intensely, simply because in the Mideast every incident can have unexpected consequences.

Syria, for its part, stressed from the first moment that the story broke that it is retaining the right to respond. The Syrian information minister further clarified that Damascus' political and military leadership is weighing its reaction.

That Syrian response will determine considerably how the rest of the incident plays out. Since the end of the Second Lebanon War in August of last year, Syria has emphasized that it could well engage in "resistance" activities against Israel's occupation of the Golan Heights.

In the lexicon of Arab diplomatic language, the term "moqawama" (resistance) means violent but legitimate activity against Israel. Even so, it seems that Syria will stick to the usual course of action, namely a request for condemnation of Israel by the United Nations Security Council.

Many questions remain unanswered regarding details of the incident, among them the exact number of IAF planes that entered Syrian airspace, and where exactly they were when they drew anti-aircraft fire. According to the Reuters news agency, witnesses saw four planes close to the Syrian-Turkish frontier, while a lone report on the Al-Arabiya satellite channel said that the IAF plane was attacked in the region of Qamishli, not far from the Iraqi border.

It's also hard to figure out the point of the mission. Syrian analysts, however, say that the aim was to examine flight paths inside their country which the IAF could use without discovery by Syrian radar.

Esta última frase «Syrian analysts, however, say that the aim was to examine flight paths inside their country which the IAF could use without discovery by Syrian radar» é muito curiosa, porque uma das rotas de ataque aéreo ao Irão é através da Síria...

[atomez]

Syria 'fires on Israel warplanes'

Syria says its air defences have opened fire on Israeli war planes which had entered Syrian airspace overnight.

Israeli planes had "dropped ammunition" over desert areas of Syria, before being forced to leave, according to the official Syrian news agency, SANA.

Israel radio quoted an unnamed Israeli army source as saying no air strike had been carried out, Reuters agency said.

The Syrian news agency says the action took place "without causing human or material loss".

Syria and Israel have remained technically at war since the seizure of the Golan Heights in 1967.

Tensions between Israeli and Syria have been rising in recent months. Both countries' leaders have said they do not want a war, while accusing the other side of arming for a conflict.

Syria says it last fired at Israeli warplanes in June 2006, when Israeli aircraft flew over the summer residence of the Syrian president, while he was inside.

[Quico]

a superioridade das Forças Armadas de Israel:

http://www.israelmilitary.net/showthread.php?t=13

Eh, pá! Sim senhor! Estou impressionado com o "equipamento" militar!

Parece os escuteiros, mas com metralhadoras!!

Ri-te, ri-te! Se encarassem as questões militares com a mesma leviandade dos europeus, já tinham sido varridos do mapa. A Europa é que tem estado ao longo de décadas a ser protegida pelo "guarda-chuva" militar norte-americano, e pode-se dar ao luxo de achar estas coisas uma brincadeira...

[Keyser Soze]

New Arabian Gulf Oil Pipeline Network Will Detour Hormuz



From DEBKA-Net-Weekly Aug. 10, 07 - Updated by DEBKAfile

August 27, 2007, 1:10 PM (GMT+02:00)

Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Yemen have launched the vast Trans-Arabia Oil Pipeline project with encouragement from Washington, DEBKA-Net Weekly 313 revealed on Aug. 10, 2007. By crisscrossing Arabia overland, the net of oil pipelines will bypass the Straits of Hormuz at the throat of the Persian Gulf and so remove Gulf oil routes from the lurking threat of Iranian closure.

The 35,000-strong new Saudi security force, disclosed this week, will protect the new project, together with the oil installations of the world’s biggest oil exporter, from attack by such enemies as al Qaeda or Iran. The first 5,000 recruits are already in training, as plans advance to start laying the first section of the new pipeline system in November, 2007.

Because of the sensitivity of their mission, Saudi security experts assisted by American advisers are thoroughly screening each recruit about his family, tribal and past associations to weed out religious extremists. DEBKAfile adds that the new oil security force will be the third largest in Saudi Arabia, after the armed forces and the National Guard.

The first Trans-Arabia pipeline will carry 5 million barrels of oil a day, almost one third of the 17 million barrels produced by Gulf emirates. The crude will be pumped through pipes running from the world’s biggest oil terminal owned by Saudi Aramco at Ras Tannura, south to S. Yemen’s oil port of Mukallah and west to the Red Sea port and industrial town of Yanbu north of Jeddah.

The $6 billion investment in the first stage will come from the participating governments within the framework of the Gulf Cooperation Council – GCC.

Rising regional tensions and the vulnerability of the Straits of Hormuz, the only maritime outlet for Gulf oil, to hostile blockade has galvanized the partners into urgent action to get the project up and running.

The Straits of Hormuz are a chokepoint in every sense.

Only 37 km wide, they consist of two lanes able to accommodate oi tankers entering and exiting Gulf ports. Every 24 hours, an average 30 vessels transit the straits loaded with roughly one-quarter of the world’s oil consumption.

This volume varies according to weather conditions, currents and whether it is day or night. The traffic during the navigable hours tends to be heavy, no more than 6 minutes between each vessel. Even if the US Navy and Air Force deployed in the Persian Gulf succeed in keeping the Straits of Hormuz open to shipping in an emergency situation, their very presence must slow the traffic down. The flow could be reduced to about half its regular capacity.

DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s Gulf sources report that the Trans-Arabia Oil Pipeline project’s second stage for rerouting South Iraqi oil will start in early 2009 without waiting for the first to be completed

Consisting of about 60% of Iraq’s oil product, the oil from the Basra terminal will be diverted from the Shatt al-Arb outlet to the Persian Gulf, which Iraq shares with Iran, and flow into pipes crossing the Iraqi Desert directly into Saudi Arabia – according to the plan.

On August 9, Tehran countered by announcing negotiations with Baghdad on a deal to build a pipeline to carry 200,000 barrels per day of southern Iraqi crude to refineries in Iran.

According to another part of the plan, Tapline will be resusciated. The story of how this pipeline fell into disuse mirrors half a century of Middle East conflict.

The Trans-Arabian Pipeline Company started operating in 1950 as the largest oil pipeline of its time, a joint venture of Standard Oil of New Jersey (Esso), Standard Oil of California (Chevron), The Texas Company (Texaco) and Socony-Vacuum Oil Company (Mobil). It transported Saudi oil from Persian Gulf fields to a Mediterranean outlet, whence it was shipped to Europe and the eastern United States.

The conflict in Palestine in 1946 caused the Tapline Company to seek alternative routes, which went through Jordan, over the Golan Heights and up to the north Lebanese port of Tripoli on the Mediterranean. The section running across Golan was discontinued after the 1967 war.

DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s oil sources report that Kuwait and Qatar, though members of the GCC, have opted out of the Trans-Arabia pipeline project.

The two emirates are deeply involved in building a gas pipeline network which is a higher priority for them than the transport of oil - especially Qatar which has large gas reserves but not much oil.

Southern Iraq’s oil is therefore projected to flow directly into Saudi Arabia and bypass Kuwait.

The Trans-Arabia Oil Pipeline network will consist of five main branches:

Pipeline No. 1: Work begins on this section in November. It will run 350 km from Ras Tannura on the Saudi easern coast to Al Fujairah in the United Emirates, also collecting cruide from Abu Dhabi’s Habashan oil field. Its 48-inch diameter provides a capacity of 1.5 million bpd.

Pipeline No. 2: This will link Ras Tannura to Musqat, Oman.

Pipeline No. 3: This will run southwest from Ras Tannura through Hadhramouth and onto Mukalla, on the Yemeni shore of the Gulf of Aden.

Pipeline No. 4: This pipeline will will also terminate at Mukalla, but first circle round from Ras Tannura to the UAE before turning back into Saudi Arabia and on to Yemen.

Pipeline No. 5: This line will slice across Arabia from Ras Tannura in the East due west to Yanbu on Saudi Arabia’s western coast on the Red Sea.

This route is already occupied by two older pipelines. They were laid in the 1980s during the Iran-Iraq war for the very same purpose as the contemporry project, namely to circumvent the Straits of Hormuz. One was built to carry Iraqi oil out to market away from the war zones of the Iranian-Iraqi frontier.

Alive to possible Iranian or al Qaeda sabotage attempts, the Trans-Arabia Pipeline partners have decided to sink large sections underground and secure the system with such obstructions as fences, earthworks, moats and roadblocks. The new oil force will man the system.

According to DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s estimates, even after the US pulls its army out of Iraq, it will retain troops for securing both the northern and southern oil fields and installations. They will be there to keep Iran at a distance, especially from the the Basra oil center.

The project also fits into the preparations underway in the Gulf oil emirates and Saudi Arabia to step up oil production by 4 million bpd to rein in skyrocketing prices before they hit $100 per barrel.

On the inter-Arab plane, Riyadh hopes Syrian Bashar Assad will appreciate the benefits accruing to his country from the pipeline across its territory - enough to draw away from his close clinch with Iran and mend his fences with Washington. The Saudis are pinning their hopes on Tapline’s resurrection helping to put Damascus-Washington relations on a new footing.