APB acusa Concorrência de lançar consulta enviesada e com "resultados predeterminados"

[salvadorveiga]

foi um pouco um post de satira aquele do Warren Buffett

[RoundersT]

Consider the following from John Mauldin's latest newsletter, "Thoughts on the Continuing Crisis", dated February 6, 2009.


If the S&P 500 were to close where it is today, and using the estimates for the first two quarters of 2009, the P/E ratio would be 36.4 on July 1.

But what if earnings merely fall to where they were in the last recession, or about 55-60% of where the projections are today? That would drop the 12-month trailing earnings for the four quarters ending June 30 to $15.90 and result in a nose-bleed P/E of 54.7 by the middle of the year.

If earnings don't come in dramatically better for the first quarter as opposed to last quarter, we could be setting up for a nasty summer bear market. Even in the bear market of 2001-2, the P/E did not get above 47. Which, by the way, at a 47 multiple would correspond to a range for the S&P of either 1111 if the earnings come in as projected or 731 if they come in at the lower range.

I see nothing on the horizon which suggests the economy is going to get manifestly stronger in the next two quarters. The real risk is that earnings come in weak for both quarters and investors simply despair this summer, throwing in the towel and bringing about a vicious bear market. I would seriously consider hedging any long positions you have before earnings season this next April. If they come in stronger, then we will see.

Boas.

Esse argumento nem vale a pena falar.
P/E ratio ????

É algo mesmo que nem quero pensar muito.
Senão com tantos movimentos bearmarkets rallys já tinha perdido o dinheiro todo.
O que deixaste é facto, tal como os gráficos sobre esse assunto que já deixei e postei á uns meses largos.
A questão é: Mais do mesmo ou voltará a dar oportunidade de se entrar longo no mercado, isto é, com P/E ratio interessantes.
Aqui fica o link: http://rounderstrader.blogspot.com/2008 ... fazem.html

Acho que não valerá apena dizer muito mais.

BFS
Rounders

[salvadorveiga]

Consider the following from John Mauldin's latest newsletter, "Thoughts on the Continuing Crisis", dated February 6, 2009.


If the S&P 500 were to close where it is today, and using the estimates for the first two quarters of 2009, the P/E ratio would be 36.4 on July 1.

But what if earnings merely fall to where they were in the last recession, or about 55-60% of where the projections are today? That would drop the 12-month trailing earnings for the four quarters ending June 30 to $15.90 and result in a nose-bleed P/E of 54.7 by the middle of the year.

If earnings don't come in dramatically better for the first quarter as opposed to last quarter, we could be setting up for a nasty summer bear market. Even in the bear market of 2001-2, the P/E did not get above 47. Which, by the way, at a 47 multiple would correspond to a range for the S&P of either 1111 if the earnings come in as projected or 731 if they come in at the lower range.

I see nothing on the horizon which suggests the economy is going to get manifestly stronger in the next two quarters. The real risk is that earnings come in weak for both quarters and investors simply despair this summer, throwing in the towel and bringing about a vicious bear market. I would seriously consider hedging any long positions you have before earnings season this next April. If they come in stronger, then we will see.