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Qual a cura para a crise? Desalavancar.

Espaço dedicado a todo o tipo de troca de impressões sobre os mercados financeiros e ao que possa condicionar o desempenho dos mesmos.

Qual a cura para a crise? Desalavancar.

por atomez » 18/9/2008 4:10

Só que vai doer muito a muita gente muito importante...

A banca de investimento e os hedge funds vão ser os que mais vão sofrer, mas a cura vai ser dolorosa para quase toda a gente.

Chamem o Dr. House! E um bom anestesista, já agora...

WSJ Escreveu:Worst Crisis Since '30s, With No End Yet in Sight

Fed and Treasury officials have identified the disease. It's called deleveraging, or the unwinding of debt. During the credit boom, financial institutions and American households took on too much debt. Between 2002 and 2006, household borrowing grew at an average annual rate of 11%, far outpacing overall economic growth. Borrowing by financial institutions grew by a 10% annualized rate. Now many of those borrowers can't pay back the loans, a problem that is exacerbated by the collapse in housing prices. They need to reduce their dependence on borrowed money, a painful and drawn-out process that can choke off credit and economic growth.

At least three things need to happen to bring the deleveraging process to an end, and they're hard to do at once.

- Financial institutions and others need to fess up to their mistakes by selling or writing down the value of distressed assets they bought with borrowed money.

- They need to pay off debt.

- Finally, they need to rebuild their capital cushions, which have been eroded by losses on those distressed assets.
...
The latest trouble spot is an area called credit-default swaps, which are private contracts that let firms trade bets on whether a borrower is going to default. When a default occurs, one party pays off the other. The value of the swaps rise and fall as market reassesses the risk that a company won't be able to honor its obligations. Firms use these instruments both as insurance -- to hedge their exposures to risk -- and to wager on the health of other companies. There are now credit-default swaps on more than $62 trillion in debt, up from about $144 billion a decade ago.

One of the big new players in the swaps game was AIG, the world's largest insurer and a major seller of credit-default swaps to financial institutions and companies.



Pois sim, talk is cheap... e como lucrar com a crise ???

"Any company that is built around the need to add debt is in trouble," says Mark Cuban, owner of the Dallas Mavericks and founder of HDNet. He ranks 161st on The Forbes 400 this year with a net worth of $2.6 billion.

"The process of deleveraging is industry agnostic. If I had the time, I would be researching every company that needs renewable and expandable debt to survive and would short the shit out of it."
As pessoas são tão ingénuas e tão agarradas aos seus interesses imediatos que um vigarista hábil consegue sempre que um grande número delas se deixe enganar.
Niccolò Machiavelli
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