Vem aí o E-Lar. 10 respostas sobre os apoios para eletrodomésticos

[Eagle Eye 2002]

Patinha,

``They have to open their wallet,'' Bill Gross, manager of the world's biggest bond fund at Newport Beach, California-based Pacific Investment Management Co. About 61 percent of Gross's holdings were mortgage-backed securities as of June 30, mostly debt guaranteed by Fannie, Freddie or government agency Ginnie Mae, according to data on Pimco's Web site.

A intervençao do Bill Gross percebe-se melhor a luz deste quote...

Nao existiu nenhuma capitulaçao nestes ultimos dias, mas a violencia da queda e assinalavel.

Estarei no Porto no proximo fim de semana, em Lisboa talvez so no Natal.

Bacini,
Eagle Eye

[Pata-Hari]

Concordo, eagle.

Para mim ficam três ou quatro frases que "linkam" perfeitamente a outras discussões deste fim-de-semana:

Bill stepped on to the world stage when he said "If we are to prevent a continuing asset and debt liquidation of near historic proportions, we will require policies that open up the balance sheet of the U.S. Treasury."
Gross continued on his firm's Web site. "[A] systematic debt liquidation is what confronts the U.S. and perhaps even the global financial system at the current time. Unchecked, it can turn a campfire into a forest fire, a mild asset bear market into a destructive financial tsunami.”

Ou seja, podemos ainda não ter visto o tsunami das obrigações. Este cenário parece impossível para quem acompanha o mercado, tipo horror story! mas obviamente é algo que o Bill Gross considera como sendo uma possibilidade real.

We’ve also discussed the hedge fund bubble, which was akin to ten thousand traders standing in a circle shooting at each other.

That too has popped, as evidence by the recent closing of Ospraie Management, Andor Capital and a litany of other funds that opted to chase reward rather than manage risk.

Muito bem resumido. What else is left to say?

Capital preservation, debt reduction and financial literacy remain core tenets of any successful approach. Inherent in the last aspect of that process is a proactive awareness of what’s going on in the world.

Esta é um corolário perfeito, daquelas ideias que deveríamos manter como header do fórum ou colada num post-it em cima do ecrã do computador para nunca esquecer.

Capitulation---with the VXO at 26?

I mean, Jeez Louise, does anyone realize that previous pain fulcrums occurred when the VXO was TWICE as high as it currently is?

Esta última foi escrita porque ele sabia que o irias ler, hehe. Infelizmente, temo a mesma coisa (ou sou forçada a concordar que o argumento é válido): não existe nenhum factor que possa fazer pensar em capitulação ou em picos de medo suficientemente fortes para podermos pensar numa inversão em V. Lamentável mas para já, verdadeiro.

Beijos Eagle! (xissa, que saudades tuas! para quando uma visita à pátria??)

[Eagle Eye 2002]

Uma biblia pelo menos para este fim de ano...
em complemento do outro artigo recente dele: http://caldeiraodebolsa.jornaldenegocios.pt/viewtopic.php?t=64388

Eu prefiro o cenario "credit car crash": quanto mais depressa melhor. Na alternativa o destino e o mesmo mas o caminho a percorrer e pior que o destino.

Um abraço,
Eagle Eye

[Ulisses Pereira]

"Freaky Friday Potpourri: Help Wanted in Washington!"
Todd Harrison
Sep 05, 2008 10:24 am

" Bill Gross has joined the march to the Treasury.


Remember all those discussions we had about the perils of moral hazard and the percolating sense of entitlement?

They’re coming full circle as evidence mounts that all roads lead to deflation.

As I said Wednesday in Pirate’s Booty, one of two scenarios will play out.

Either the credit cancer will phase through our economy, infecting sector after sector until debt is destroyed, or we’ll witness a credit car crash if the September issuance can’t be absorbed.

Neither of these scenarios is something one would wish for but if wishes were knishes, I would weigh 300 lbs.

Yesterday, one more man joined the Million Man March to the Treasury.

Not just any man, mind you, the man in the wonderful world of credit.

His name is Bill Gross and no, that’s not a metaphor for the disgusting dollar.

Bill runs PIMCO, the world’s largest bond fund and he’s made a pretty penny through the years. He played the game and made a name for himself as the most powerful man in fixed income.

And yes, there was a time when that was a good thing.

Yesterday, Bill stepped on to the world stage when he said "If we are to prevent a continuing asset and debt liquidation of near historic proportions, we will require policies that open up the balance sheet of the U.S. Treasury."

Gross continued on his firm's Web site. "[A] systematic debt liquidation is what confronts the U.S. and perhaps even the global financial system at the current time. Unchecked, it can turn a campfire into a forest fire, a mild asset bear market into a destructive financial tsunami.”

Pepe Depew covered this story with a stylistic approach that would make Hunter S. Thompson smile with pride. Credible analysis is a rarity these days, particularly when married with analogies of metaphorical junkies in a strung out system looking for a fix.

If you haven’t read it yet, you’re missing the last call for protocol as the bartender begins to flicker the lights.

When I first read Bill’s statement, my immediate reaction was to ask “Why?”

I don’t profess to know credit intricacies as well as Mr. Gross but I understand the nuances of human nature and complexities of capital markets.

If he’s asking the government to further soil their already bloodied sheets, chances are that he no longer wants to sleep in the bed that he helped make.

There is a reason for everything but sometimes we must read between the lines.

If the Treasury is a buyer, it will be quite interesting to see if PIMCO is the counter-party. Imagine that.

Don’t Hate the Player, Hate the Game

We’ve been following the changing State of the Art in the financial system for years, offering that fat needed to drip from a bone borne from greed and overcapacity.

That dynamic has come to bear as years of financial engineering unwinds and the grand experiment implodes.

We’ve also discussed the hedge fund bubble, which was akin to ten thousand traders standing in a circle shooting at each other.

That too has popped, as evidence by the recent closing of Ospraie Management, Andor Capital and a litany of other funds that opted to chase reward rather than manage risk.

This isn’t an indictment of the system, it is a necessary consequence of it.

Time and price are the ultimate arbiters of our financial fate and the current process of price discovery has us in the most interesting juncture in the history of financial markets.

Capital preservation, debt reduction and financial literacy remain core tenets of any successful approach. Inherent in the last aspect of that process is a proactive awareness of what’s going on in the world.

When Bill Gross, the world’s biggest bond fund manager, is kicking the tires of socialism, we must ascertain how quickly the air is deflating in the world around us.

Welcome to deflation, Minyans, where asset classes, egos and social mood will contract in kind.

Some Random Thoughts

I nibbled on some General Mills (GIS) and Coca Cola (KO) calls yesterday and paired those against Sears Holdings and Wal-Mart puts for a trade.

This effectively sets up a Consumer vs. Consumer bet, with non-durables on one side and retail on the other. Why? Glad you asked.
The recent commodity meltage significantly reduced input costs.
Consumer non-durables will NOT pass those savings through to consumers.
That will help margins at General Mills, Coke, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and others.


The consumer, meanwhile, continues to struggle with home equity deflation, stagnant wage growth, rising unemployment and percolating societal acrimony.
That will serve as a headwind for retailers such as Sears (SHLD) and Wal-Mart (WMT).
Egads! Short Wal-Mart? I was dressed down by my brother Jeff Macke yesterday for taking the other side of Sam’s Club, one that is the best acting stock in the Dow Jones Industrial Average this year.
While actions speak louder than words, I’ll say with all due humility that the very fact that a retailer holds that top spot is reason alone to scrunch our nose.
Be that as it may, discipline must always trump conviction. As such, there are two potential “stop loss levels” in Wal-Mart, above $61 and above $64.
What else have I been doing? Something very important...

I’ve been shooting out sponsorship docs for the 2008 Minyanville Festivus to benefit the Ruby Peck Foundation for Children's Education.

We pride ourselves on the company we keep and we're splashing sponsors far and wide. If your organization has an interest in supporting this near and dear effort, please ping me personally and I'll get you some dets.

And yes, any gestures in the good name of my grandfather is considered a personal favor as we do our part to affect positive change in challenging times.

Answers I Really Wanna Know….

Why does it take something bad to make people realize they've had it good?

For haven't we been screaming about the disconnect between credit and equity, both in the 'Ville and on the air?

When are Hank and Ben shoot one of their two remaining bullets with hopes of spurring the herd?

Will the first one be fired at a ghost?

Will the second one be pointed inward?

Will this Rolling Stone continue to gather moss?

Capitulation---with the VXO at 26?

I mean, Jeez Louise, does anyone realize that previous pain fulcrums occurred when the VXO was TWICE as high as it currently is?

While that doesn't mean we can't rally, isn't it a glaring sign that we can fall much further?

Can I share that the best trader I've ever met told me that he made more money being bearish in a bull market than being bearish in a bear market?

With stock buybacks ending at 3:30 and redemptions (forced selling) beginning at about the same time, are you ready for things to get a tad nuttier than they already are?


Now that the “lower crude is equity positive’ myth is debunked, will Minyans please remember that a higher dollar will be an equity (asset class) death knell?

OK, OK, OK—no more Debbie Downer. Jeez! Take a deep breath and know that in less than six short hours, we’ll be turning it off, tuning it up and kicking back for a weekend full of football. Noice.

May peace be with you.

R.P."

(in www.minyanville.com)