Boas notícias para o dólar...
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Re: Intermarket
C.N. Escreveu:Não será o petroleo que sobe entre outras causas devido à descida do dólar?
Ola,
HeikinAshi, o Camisa ja respondeu e eu gostava de complementar com o seguinte: correlacao nao significa causalidade. Se o preco de A subir e o preco de B descer, apenas significa que (pode) ha uma correlacao. Ninguem sabe se B desce porque A sobe ou vice-versa; ou se A sobe e B desce porque C sobe... Como o Camisa disse, os jornalistas estao sempre a procura de uma explicacao para coisas que nao podem ser explicadas.
Dito isto, gostava de partilhar o resultado da minha observacao do mercado, em relacao as intermarket relationships. De uma forma impirica, funciona assim:
Interest Rates down
Outras opinioes?
Abraco
CN
interest rates down / equity down; a correlação tem sido esta
assim como oil up / equity up; excepto esta ponta final. mesmo assim vamos ver quando o oil se afundar se os mercados não vão afundar mais ainda
Abraço,
Dwer
There is a difference between knowing the path and walking the path
Dwer
There is a difference between knowing the path and walking the path
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Intermarket
Não será o petroleo que sobe entre outras causas devido à descida do dólar?
Ola,
HeikinAshi, o Camisa ja respondeu e eu gostava de complementar com o seguinte: correlacao nao significa causalidade. Se o preco de A subir e o preco de B descer, apenas significa que (pode) ha uma correlacao. Ninguem sabe se B desce porque A sobe ou vice-versa; ou se A sobe e B desce porque C sobe... Como o Camisa disse, os jornalistas estao sempre a procura de uma explicacao para coisas que nao podem ser explicadas.
Dito isto, gostava de partilhar o resultado da minha observacao do mercado, em relacao as intermarket relationships. De uma forma impirica, funciona assim:
Interest Rates down
USD down
Bond Prices up
Equities up
Commodities up
Real Estate up
Inflation up
Interest Rates up...
USD up
Bond Prices down
Equities down
Commodities down
Real Estate down
Inflation down
Outras opinioes?
Abraco
CN
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HeikinAshi Escreveu:Camisa e Crubiclas ou quem possa ajudar
Já tenho alguma experiencia na negociação de stocks, indices e pouco de futuros mas tenho andado a estudar o forex principalmente o EUR/USD.
Alguma dica que possam dar ou algum link relevante?, a analise técnica dos graficos forex não difere muito do que se faz para outros activos?
Comecei por ler e fazer os testes do http://www.babypips.com/
Obrigado desde já pela disponibilidade
se aplicares análise técnica os princípios são os mesmos, mas com alguma adaptação evidentemente
basicamente a grande diferença é o nível de alavancagem disponível
pesquisa aí no caldeirão que há uns quantos links
www.forex-tsd.com
www.forexfactory.com
Free Minds and Free Markets
... forecasting exchange rates has a success rate no better than that of forecasting the outcome of a coin toss - Alan Greenspan (2004)
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Camisa e Crubiclas ou quem possa ajudar
Já tenho alguma experiencia na negociação de stocks, indices e pouco de futuros mas tenho andado a estudar o forex principalmente o EUR/USD.
Alguma dica que possam dar ou algum link relevante?, a analise técnica dos graficos forex não difere muito do que se faz para outros activos?
Comecei por ler e fazer os testes do http://www.babypips.com/
Obrigado desde já pela disponibilidade
Abraço
HA
Já tenho alguma experiencia na negociação de stocks, indices e pouco de futuros mas tenho andado a estudar o forex principalmente o EUR/USD.
Alguma dica que possam dar ou algum link relevante?, a analise técnica dos graficos forex não difere muito do que se faz para outros activos?
Comecei por ler e fazer os testes do http://www.babypips.com/
Obrigado desde já pela disponibilidade
Abraço
HA
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Claro que sim. O facto do dólar estar baixo fáz umentar as exportações. O que acontece que depois o mercado reage naturalmente, ou seja, se exportarem mais os paises que compram injectam moeda do próprio país no mercado aumentando assim a oferta dessa moeda e fazendo com que diminua a diferença entre esta e a moeda americana, em termos de oferta e procura.
Espero ter conseguido explicar, mas não é fácil....
Espero ter conseguido explicar, mas não é fácil....
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M35 Escreveu:É verdade se verificarmos o que tem acontecido nos últimos meses, no entanto julgo que hoje não tem nada a ver com isso. O petróleo hoje está pressionado por forte especulação...
Em termos económicos uma melhoria da balança comercial dos USA beneficia o dólar. Aliás e se voltarmos atràs no tempo verificamos que foi devido a isso que o dólar caiu. Isso e o facto óbvio do BCE ter deixado de segurar o dólar. Esta mudança de estratégia aliada à fraca balança comercial americana, féz com que o dólar BUM.
eu porr acaso tenho visao diferente... o facto do dolar estar tao baixo melhorou a balança comercial por os preços estarem mais atractivos logo as exportações são passiveis de aumentar bastante...
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Camisa Roxa Escreveu:é por isso que é sempre melhor seguir a análise técnica do que os fundamentais que só encaixam no muito longo prazo
esqueçam os fundamentais e olhem para os gráficos...
Camisa Roxa, já somos dois!
Abraço.
Uma boa análise é 90% do sucesso...os outros 10% é pura sorte...
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É verdade se verificarmos o que tem acontecido nos últimos meses, no entanto julgo que hoje não tem nada a ver com isso. O petróleo hoje está pressionado por forte especulação...
Em termos económicos uma melhoria da balança comercial dos USA beneficia o dólar. Aliás e se voltarmos atràs no tempo verificamos que foi devido a isso que o dólar caiu. Isso e o facto óbvio do BCE ter deixado de segurar o dólar. Esta mudança de estratégia aliada à fraca balança comercial americana, féz com que o dólar BUM.
Em termos económicos uma melhoria da balança comercial dos USA beneficia o dólar. Aliás e se voltarmos atràs no tempo verificamos que foi devido a isso que o dólar caiu. Isso e o facto óbvio do BCE ter deixado de segurar o dólar. Esta mudança de estratégia aliada à fraca balança comercial americana, féz com que o dólar BUM.
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M35 Escreveu:Não é para o dólar mesmo. Quando exportam, os países pagam na sua prórpia moeda, o que fáz com que haja mais moeda estrangeira no mercado, beneficiando assim o dólar. Hoje cai, mas julgo que é devido ao petróleo.
isso é toeria M35: a longo prazo 1 menor défice valoriza a moeda sim senhor
a curto/médio prazo isso não significa nada para a evolução da cotação do USD
é por isso que é sempre melhor seguir a análise técnica do que os fundamentais que só encaixam no muito longo prazo
isso do dólar estar a cair ser do petróleo eheh já pareces os analistas cá da praça a procurar explicações para o inexplicável
o dólar cai ponto final! ninguém sabe porquê, ou melhor cai porque a oferta é maior que a procura, simplesmente não há motivos racionais para hoje, com a notícia da diminuição do défice americano o dólar ter caído...
esqueçam os fundamentais e olhem para os gráficos...
Free Minds and Free Markets
... forecasting exchange rates has a success rate no better than that of forecasting the outcome of a coin toss - Alan Greenspan (2004)
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M35 Escreveu:Não é para o dólar mesmo. Quando exportam, os países pagam na sua prórpia moeda, o que fáz com que haja mais moeda estrangeira no mercado, beneficiando assim o dólar. Hoje cai, mas julgo que é devido ao petróleo.
Não será o petroleo que sobe entre outras causas devido à descida do dólar?
Abraço
HA
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sim, porque o usd apanhou hoje mais 1 porrada e está novamenteà beira do 1.6
Free Minds and Free Markets
... forecasting exchange rates has a success rate no better than that of forecasting the outcome of a coin toss - Alan Greenspan (2004)
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Boas notícias para o dólar...
U.S. Trade Deficit Narrowed 1.2% in May to $59.8 Billion
By Bob Willis
July 11 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. trade deficit unexpectedly narrowed in May as the cheaper dollar spurred gains in exports that helped make up for imports of more expensive crude oil.
The gap between imports and exports shrank 1.2 percent to $59.8 billion from a revised $60.5 billion in April that was smaller than previously estimated, the Commerce Department said today in Washington.
Growth in overseas markets and a weaker dollar are helping lift exports even as oil prices, which reached a record last week, are pushing up imports. A shrinking trade gap is one of the few economic bright spots remaining as an extended housing slump and cooling consumer spending weigh on the economy.
``Our exports are looking more attractive because of the weaker dollar,'' Ellen Zentner, senior U.S. economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in New York, said before the report. ``Global growth is holding up well enough to help the U.S. economy. Trade is certainly helping the economy.''
The trade gap was forecast to widen to $62.5 billion from an initially reported $60.9 billion in April, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 74 economists. Deficit projections ranged from $59.5 billion to $65 billion.
Exports increased 0.9 percent to $157.5 billion, as sales of foods, aircraft and chemicals strengthened.
Oil Imports
Imports rose 0.3 percent to $217.3 billion after increasing 4.6 percent the prior month. The import figures reflected a record $31.2 billion in purchases of foreign crude oil, before seasonal adjustments, as well as higher demand for capital goods and consumer items such as televisions, apparel and toys. Auto imports fell $842 million to $20.6 billion.
The cost of crude oil rose as high as $135.09 a barrel on May 22, according to pricing on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and last week reached a new record of $145.85.
Imports of industrial supplies declined by $332 million to $67.2 billion. Demand for consumer goods from abroad gained $1.5 billion to $41.7 billion.
After eliminating the influence of changes in prices, the trade deficit declined to $43.6 billion, the lowest since October 2002, from $46.7 billion. Those are the numbers used to calculate gross domestic product and may prompt economists to increase their estimates of second-quarter growth.
China Deficit Widens
The trade gap with China widened to $21 billion from $20.2 billion in the prior month. The deficit with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries widened by $2.3 billion to a record $17.9 billion.
The U.S. trade deficits with Canada, Mexico, Japan and the European Union all narrowed, led by a $2.5 billion decline in the shortfall with Japan, to $5 billion. Exports to Canada and the EU reached record levels.
The economy probably grew 1.5 percent in the second quarter, as growing exports helped counter weakness in manufacturing and construction, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists taken the first week of July. The economy grew 1 percent in the first quarter, when net exports contributed 0.8 percentage point to the expansion.
About $78 billion in tax rebates through June probably gave consumer spending a boost in the second quarter, helping to spur purchases of foreign televisions and other consumer goods. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast consumer spending rose 2 percent in the April-to-June period, compared with a 1.1 percent gain in the first quarter.
Growth Overseas
Faster growth overseas is spurring exports of U.S.-made goods, ranging from Boeing Co. aircraft, to mining and construction equipment, steel and grains. China's economy grew 10.6 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier. India's expanded 8.8 percent, Argentina's 8.4 percent and Brazil's 5.8 percent.
In response to growing demand from China, Caterpillar Inc., the world's biggest maker of earthmoving equipment, will build a factory in eastern China to make light hydraulic excavators for the world's largest earthmover market after the U.S.
``Our customers in China are demanding a greater variety of construction equipment,'' Mary Bell, Caterpillar's global vice president for construction machines, said in a statement June 30.
The deficit with China, which makes up the largest share of the U.S. trade gap, remains a political sticking point. Some U.S. lawmakers accuse China of keeping its currency undervalued to boost exports.
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson on June 18 urged China to let markets play a bigger role in setting the value of the yuan, while acknowledging ``the recent increased pace of appreciation'' of the Chinese currency.
Dollar's Decline
U.S. exporters are also getting a boost from a weaker dollar, which was down 8 percent against a trade-weighted basket of currencies of major trading partners in the 12 months ended in May. The dollar is down by about 27 percent since February 2002, and that has pushed up prices of commodities.
Charlotte, North Carolina-based Nucor Corp., the largest U.S.-based steelmaker by market value, is working to keep up with surging demand from emerging economies, many of them profiting from gains in prices of oil and other commodities, Chief Executive Officer Dan DiMicco said on June 25.
``Because of the global shortage of steel, we have a strong ability to export,'' DiMicco said in an interview in New York. Demand for steel and other commodities is in a ``30-plus-year bull market,'' he said, as emerging economies including China and India expand infrastructure.
To contact the reporters on this story: Bob Willis in Washington at bwillis@bloomberg.net
By Bob Willis
July 11 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. trade deficit unexpectedly narrowed in May as the cheaper dollar spurred gains in exports that helped make up for imports of more expensive crude oil.
The gap between imports and exports shrank 1.2 percent to $59.8 billion from a revised $60.5 billion in April that was smaller than previously estimated, the Commerce Department said today in Washington.
Growth in overseas markets and a weaker dollar are helping lift exports even as oil prices, which reached a record last week, are pushing up imports. A shrinking trade gap is one of the few economic bright spots remaining as an extended housing slump and cooling consumer spending weigh on the economy.
``Our exports are looking more attractive because of the weaker dollar,'' Ellen Zentner, senior U.S. economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in New York, said before the report. ``Global growth is holding up well enough to help the U.S. economy. Trade is certainly helping the economy.''
The trade gap was forecast to widen to $62.5 billion from an initially reported $60.9 billion in April, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 74 economists. Deficit projections ranged from $59.5 billion to $65 billion.
Exports increased 0.9 percent to $157.5 billion, as sales of foods, aircraft and chemicals strengthened.
Oil Imports
Imports rose 0.3 percent to $217.3 billion after increasing 4.6 percent the prior month. The import figures reflected a record $31.2 billion in purchases of foreign crude oil, before seasonal adjustments, as well as higher demand for capital goods and consumer items such as televisions, apparel and toys. Auto imports fell $842 million to $20.6 billion.
The cost of crude oil rose as high as $135.09 a barrel on May 22, according to pricing on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and last week reached a new record of $145.85.
Imports of industrial supplies declined by $332 million to $67.2 billion. Demand for consumer goods from abroad gained $1.5 billion to $41.7 billion.
After eliminating the influence of changes in prices, the trade deficit declined to $43.6 billion, the lowest since October 2002, from $46.7 billion. Those are the numbers used to calculate gross domestic product and may prompt economists to increase their estimates of second-quarter growth.
China Deficit Widens
The trade gap with China widened to $21 billion from $20.2 billion in the prior month. The deficit with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries widened by $2.3 billion to a record $17.9 billion.
The U.S. trade deficits with Canada, Mexico, Japan and the European Union all narrowed, led by a $2.5 billion decline in the shortfall with Japan, to $5 billion. Exports to Canada and the EU reached record levels.
The economy probably grew 1.5 percent in the second quarter, as growing exports helped counter weakness in manufacturing and construction, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists taken the first week of July. The economy grew 1 percent in the first quarter, when net exports contributed 0.8 percentage point to the expansion.
About $78 billion in tax rebates through June probably gave consumer spending a boost in the second quarter, helping to spur purchases of foreign televisions and other consumer goods. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast consumer spending rose 2 percent in the April-to-June period, compared with a 1.1 percent gain in the first quarter.
Growth Overseas
Faster growth overseas is spurring exports of U.S.-made goods, ranging from Boeing Co. aircraft, to mining and construction equipment, steel and grains. China's economy grew 10.6 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier. India's expanded 8.8 percent, Argentina's 8.4 percent and Brazil's 5.8 percent.
In response to growing demand from China, Caterpillar Inc., the world's biggest maker of earthmoving equipment, will build a factory in eastern China to make light hydraulic excavators for the world's largest earthmover market after the U.S.
``Our customers in China are demanding a greater variety of construction equipment,'' Mary Bell, Caterpillar's global vice president for construction machines, said in a statement June 30.
The deficit with China, which makes up the largest share of the U.S. trade gap, remains a political sticking point. Some U.S. lawmakers accuse China of keeping its currency undervalued to boost exports.
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson on June 18 urged China to let markets play a bigger role in setting the value of the yuan, while acknowledging ``the recent increased pace of appreciation'' of the Chinese currency.
Dollar's Decline
U.S. exporters are also getting a boost from a weaker dollar, which was down 8 percent against a trade-weighted basket of currencies of major trading partners in the 12 months ended in May. The dollar is down by about 27 percent since February 2002, and that has pushed up prices of commodities.
Charlotte, North Carolina-based Nucor Corp., the largest U.S.-based steelmaker by market value, is working to keep up with surging demand from emerging economies, many of them profiting from gains in prices of oil and other commodities, Chief Executive Officer Dan DiMicco said on June 25.
``Because of the global shortage of steel, we have a strong ability to export,'' DiMicco said in an interview in New York. Demand for steel and other commodities is in a ``30-plus-year bull market,'' he said, as emerging economies including China and India expand infrastructure.
To contact the reporters on this story: Bob Willis in Washington at bwillis@bloomberg.net
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