Cramer: "Looking for a Catalyst"
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Obg pela partilha Ulisses.
Tenho pena de muitas coisas que tenho lido aqui ultimamente. Agora que a acção/Psi caiu x % aparecem algumas pessoas a gozar, ou a dizer "eu não não vos avisei", etc.
Acham que os estão longos necessitam de ler (nesta altura) esses comentários?
Muitas pessoas perderam fortunas nos últimos meses, vidas foram destruidas. Infelizmente conheço 2 casos.
Não foi apenas dinheiro que perderam. Foi tudo o que os rodeia. A alavancagem/empréstimo foi opção de certas pessoas que estavam desesperadas e queriam recuperar o que perderam.
A essas pessoas e tantas outras que aqui andam deixo aqui uma palavra de conforto, e dizer-vos que a vida tem muita coisa bonita, e que um dia a sorte vos sorrirá.
Tenho pena de muitas coisas que tenho lido aqui ultimamente. Agora que a acção/Psi caiu x % aparecem algumas pessoas a gozar, ou a dizer "eu não não vos avisei", etc.
Acham que os estão longos necessitam de ler (nesta altura) esses comentários?
Muitas pessoas perderam fortunas nos últimos meses, vidas foram destruidas. Infelizmente conheço 2 casos.
Não foi apenas dinheiro que perderam. Foi tudo o que os rodeia. A alavancagem/empréstimo foi opção de certas pessoas que estavam desesperadas e queriam recuperar o que perderam.
A essas pessoas e tantas outras que aqui andam deixo aqui uma palavra de conforto, e dizer-vos que a vida tem muita coisa bonita, e que um dia a sorte vos sorrirá.
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In other words, I don't see tinder except for the takeovers in finance. So far, any attempts to bottom-fish in finance have been met with such horrid results that I can't believe any institution would go for it.
But then again, the sector is run by so many brain-dead people that anything can happen.
LOL
Esta é a hipótese mas sólida para arrancar um super-rally.
Seguindo esta análise, a recuperação está dentro das hipóteses de milagre.
Abraço
There are two kinds of investors: those who don't know where the market is headed, and those who don't know that they don't know.
William Bernstein
William Bernstein
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Cramer: "Looking for a Catalyst"
"Looking for a Catalyst"
By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
7/1/2008 8:59 AM EDT
"What turns it around? What happens to spark a real rally, not just a short squeeze -- we now exceed minus-9 on the S&P oscillator. What's the tinder?
Here are a couple of possibilities. No. 1 is a deal on a major bank that's in trouble. We know that the peak in subprime loans occurs this summer. That's when the worst were written; after this summer, you are going to be dealing with the better loan standards for most banks -- except for Wachovia (WB - commentary - Cramer's Take), which we learned this week was still issuing Option ARMs, the terrible product that Wachovia kept writing after it inherited it from the sainted Sandlers when it stupidly bought Golden West. That's the $25 billion acquisition that is going to cost $50 billion and could obliterate Wachovia.
Anyway, that means it is possible that you could see a risk-taking bank buy another bank, betting that the deposit base and the peak in subprime loans might actually produce a positive. Now, we know Bank of America (BAC - commentary - Cramer's Take) made this bet already, but it was obviously too early and it was also obviously the most tainted brand that has ever been bought. They might as well have bought a tobacco company. Still, a major acquisition or a gigantic cash infusion from the Middle East will cause a short squeeze of huge proportions. It's just a tourniquet, but that's what's needed to send this horrible cohort up. No respite for Fannie (FNM - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Freddie (FRE - commentary - Cramer's Take), but those too might benefit from the talk of the fact that the worst subprime vintages are now peaking. Of course, any clarity that CDOs are not defaulting or defaulting more slowly would be hugely positive too, and would cause a bottom in some of these financials. Don't forget that Lehman (LEH - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Merrill (MER - commentary - Cramer's Take) are stocked up with this junk courtesy of their in-house issuers, which were among the worst out there.
A second possibility is a dramatic decline in the price of oil. This will have to come from the demand side, because the supply side is not able to produce any more than it is, at least for now. A new find won't matter. We don't have the rigs. A dramatic increase in supply from Iraq won't matter. Peace in the Middle East and Nigeria won't matter and seems impossible anyway.
A huge downturn in the Chinese economy could be a spur, but I don't see that happening. In other words, I don't see how oil comes down big, but anything's possible.
Finally, I would say that a dramatic change in the Bush administration to help the banking business with funds so that the banks can sell this junk and get reliquefied, coupled with the Fed cutting rates to near zero so the banks can play the curve, could do it. But the Fed just said it won't do this, so a reversal in course seems unlikely.
In other words, I don't see tinder except for the takeovers in finance. So far, any attempts to bottom-fish in finance have been met with such horrid results that I can't believe any institution would go for it.
But then again, the sector is run by so many brain-dead people that anything can happen. "
(in www.realmoney.com)
By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
7/1/2008 8:59 AM EDT
"What turns it around? What happens to spark a real rally, not just a short squeeze -- we now exceed minus-9 on the S&P oscillator. What's the tinder?
Here are a couple of possibilities. No. 1 is a deal on a major bank that's in trouble. We know that the peak in subprime loans occurs this summer. That's when the worst were written; after this summer, you are going to be dealing with the better loan standards for most banks -- except for Wachovia (WB - commentary - Cramer's Take), which we learned this week was still issuing Option ARMs, the terrible product that Wachovia kept writing after it inherited it from the sainted Sandlers when it stupidly bought Golden West. That's the $25 billion acquisition that is going to cost $50 billion and could obliterate Wachovia.
Anyway, that means it is possible that you could see a risk-taking bank buy another bank, betting that the deposit base and the peak in subprime loans might actually produce a positive. Now, we know Bank of America (BAC - commentary - Cramer's Take) made this bet already, but it was obviously too early and it was also obviously the most tainted brand that has ever been bought. They might as well have bought a tobacco company. Still, a major acquisition or a gigantic cash infusion from the Middle East will cause a short squeeze of huge proportions. It's just a tourniquet, but that's what's needed to send this horrible cohort up. No respite for Fannie (FNM - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Freddie (FRE - commentary - Cramer's Take), but those too might benefit from the talk of the fact that the worst subprime vintages are now peaking. Of course, any clarity that CDOs are not defaulting or defaulting more slowly would be hugely positive too, and would cause a bottom in some of these financials. Don't forget that Lehman (LEH - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Merrill (MER - commentary - Cramer's Take) are stocked up with this junk courtesy of their in-house issuers, which were among the worst out there.
A second possibility is a dramatic decline in the price of oil. This will have to come from the demand side, because the supply side is not able to produce any more than it is, at least for now. A new find won't matter. We don't have the rigs. A dramatic increase in supply from Iraq won't matter. Peace in the Middle East and Nigeria won't matter and seems impossible anyway.
A huge downturn in the Chinese economy could be a spur, but I don't see that happening. In other words, I don't see how oil comes down big, but anything's possible.
Finally, I would say that a dramatic change in the Bush administration to help the banking business with funds so that the banks can sell this junk and get reliquefied, coupled with the Fed cutting rates to near zero so the banks can play the curve, could do it. But the Fed just said it won't do this, so a reversal in course seems unlikely.
In other words, I don't see tinder except for the takeovers in finance. So far, any attempts to bottom-fish in finance have been met with such horrid results that I can't believe any institution would go for it.
But then again, the sector is run by so many brain-dead people that anything can happen. "
(in www.realmoney.com)
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