Alan Farley: "10 Things I Love About This Market"
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Bom dia Ulisses!
Nao tens ai por acaso o grafico com o "multi-year support" do indice bancario?
Um abraço,
Eagle Eye
Um abraço,
Eagle Eye
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Alan Farley: "10 Things I Love About This Market"
"10 Things I Love About This Market"
By Alan Farley
RealMoney.com Contributor
6/23/2008 12:00 PM EDT
"Themajor averages are in a tailspin these days,with a bull's-eye pointed directly at the March lows. The Nasdaq 100's poor performance during Friday's selloff tells us that big tech stocks won't offer safe haven in the upcoming event, even though they've been a relatively good trade for the last three months.
But this isn't a column about gloom and doom. Frankly, there are plenty of those discourses to go around, so instead I'm taking a different approach as the calendar passes from spring into summer. In fact, it's my intention to be downright positive today and list the 10 things I really like about this market.
OK, expect a little sarcasm to seep into this listing, but that's not my main objective. Rather, when it finally comes, the elusive upside will develop from small themes that are already weaving themselves in the dark strands of selling pressure that hit the tape in May. Finding these small rays of light now might give us a tradable edge in the future.
1. Banking Index: The index dropped another 6% last week and is getting close to the multiyear support level I noted in a column last week. That floor should start the bottoming process and eventually yield a historic buying opportunity. But don't rush the gun, because big turns after long downtrends take time to set up.
2. The Mighty Dow: The Dow Industrials have led the market to the downside in recent weeks. But ironically, the venerable index shows a more bullish long-term chart than the S&P 500 or Nasdaq averages. Note how the March reversal started at six-year breakout support. A bounce at that level in the next month or two may trigger a massive double bottom that finally ends the bear market.
3. Daytrading: Without question, the last two years have yielded the most profitable daytrading environment since the bubble burst in 2000. The key has been the Market Volatility Index's (VIX) rise over 20, which has widened daily trading ranges and triggered the type of intraday swings that translate into fast-fingered profits.
4. Beautiful Trends, Part 1: Hey talking heads, it's only a bubble when you're not long. Crude oil and other commodities show the same bullish patterns we thought were perfectly normal when their names were Cisco Systems (CSCO - commentary - Cramer's Take) or Qualcomm (QCOM - commentary - Cramer's Take). Let's face it. The only bad markets are those without speculators and low-hanging fruit.
5. Short-Selling: Two years ago, I'll bet you thought this esteemed practice was obsolete. Then came the perfect storm of an abolished uptick rule, inverse funds and a falling market. Here's a fact of life: The dumbest money in 2008 is coming from market players, both retail and institutional, that still refuse to sell short when the opportunity arises.
6. Beautiful Trends, Part 2: There's always a bull market somewhere, and you won't find a prettier one at the moment than with the railroad stocks. CSX Corp. (CSX - commentary - Cramer's Take), my top sector pick, is pulling back after a magnificent run and letting more shareholders jump aboard. Keep your stop loss below 50-day moving average support at $62.50, just in case.
7. The Market Has No Memory: Gone are the logical days when you expected a strong close to yield a strong opening in the following session, and vice versa. OK, this sounds like a bad thing, but it isn't. It means you can carry some of your biggest losers overnight and get bailed out when prices take off in the
8. Utilities: Market folklore tells us that recessions don't happen while the utility stocks are moving higher. Well, guess what, the sector still shows a bull-market profile. The Utilities SPDR (XLU - commentary - Cramer's Take) ETF is trading above its 50- and 200-day moving averages after a pullback from the all-time high posted in December.
9. Lots of Lots: The timing couldn't be better. Real estate prices are plummeting just as we baby boomers send our kids off to college and get ready to look for the retirement property that carries us into the golden years. Now, if we can just hold out long enough to dump our current homes to the thirty-something slacker types now starting families.
10. Wall Street in a Noose: The egregious abuse of power and downright greed we've watched in the top investment banks during this crisis will usher in a long period of suffocating industry regulation. Market insiders will hate every minute, but we small fries will love watching their self-serving arms get chopped off and thrown to the alligators.
So, sure -- things look a bit bleak at the moment. But look hard enough, and you can find things to love, even in a market as ugly as this one."
(in www.realmoney.com)
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