Caldeirão da Bolsa

Falemos de ouro

Espaço dedicado a todo o tipo de troca de impressões sobre os mercados financeiros e ao que possa condicionar o desempenho dos mesmos.

por Cavas » 4/5/2008 6:58

Deixo aqui um artigo com uma contagem de Elliott:

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/field ... 50108.html
 
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por gordo 1 » 25/4/2008 20:51

boas

Na analise do big online reserch diz que quebrando em baixa os 904 a melhor entrada seria pelos 820-
850 ... parece apontar para lá ... esperar !!!
 
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por Cavas » 25/4/2008 14:06

Deixo aqui um texto de David Nichols que tanto apreciam aqui no forum:

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/nicho ... 42408.html

Quanto ao gráfico continua a mostrar descidas.
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por Crómio » 7/4/2008 22:04

Cavas Escreveu:Se realmente for um ZIG ZAG levanos a valores ainda mais baixos


Hã?!

Zig-Zag, mas é um Zig-Zag Up-Once-Down-Twice ou um Zig-Zag Down-Twice-Up-Once?

É que se o Downer-Down bater no suporte do Zig faz um Zip-Zip Um-Dois-Três...

E de certeza que não queres ver o Carlos Cruz por aqui, não é?

Ainda por cima depois da cena das fotos do Caldeirão...

Temos de ter muuuuita atenção com estas conclusões precipitadas.

Ora atão...
There are two kinds of investors: those who don't know where the market is headed, and those who don't know that they don't know.

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por Cavas » 7/4/2008 21:43

Se realmente for um ZIG ZAG levanos a valores ainda mais baixos
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Penso, que não está a dar sinal de entrada...

por colmeias » 7/4/2008 21:19

Penso que o ouro está numa fase de indefinição... qualquer entrada neste momento pode ser arriscada...( mas nunca shortar o ouro, nesta fase, pode ser suicidio)...
devemos aguardar por uma maior definição...

Junto o meu grafico

Colmeias
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por Woodhare » 7/4/2008 20:48

Good News for Bernanke From Bonds Is Bad for Rates (Update3)

By Daniel Kruger and Sandra Hernandez
Enlarge Image/Details

April 7 (Bloomberg) -- For the first time since December, the bond market is closing the credibility gap with Ben S. Bernanke and signaling its agreement with the Federal Reserve chairman that an economic collapse has been averted and that interest rates are bottoming. [...]

``There is a sense of stability returning to the market,'' said John Hendricks, who helps oversee $137 billion at Hartford Investment Management Co. in Hartford, Connecticut. ``Bernanke's comments that there's a significant amount of monetary easing already in the system and you've got these other measures coming into play as well that should help the economy rebound in the second half.''

Turning Point

The turning point came when the Fed promised $30 billion to back New York-based JPMorgan's bailout of Bear Stearns, preventing the biggest collapse of an investment bank. The central bank lowered its pledge to $29 billion on March 24 after JPMorgan quadrupled the purchase price to about $2.4 billion.

Treasuries, which tend to perform the best when the economy and inflation are slowing, lost 1.59 percent on average since March 17, according to Merrill's indexes. They had gained 14.5 percent since June 12 as gross domestic product growth slowed to a 0.6 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter, home prices fell 14 percent and bank losses swelled.

High-yield, high-risk corporate bonds returned 2.46 percent following the Bear Stearns rescue, after losing 4.58 percent this year through March 17, the Merrill indexes show.

`Promote Growth'

While acknowledging for the first time that the economy may be in a recession, Bernanke told the Joint Economic Committee of Congress last week that the Fed's actions ``will help to promote growth over time and to mitigate the risks to economic activity.''

The bond market is looking much like it did in December, when yields rose as much as 0.27 percentage point to 3.91 percent on average. The increase followed the Fed's Dec. 11 decision to cut its target for overnight loans between banks to 4.25 percent.

Bernanke is persuading bond investors of his ability to manage the economy after the Fed reduced the target federal funds rate to 2.25 percent, pumped $628 billion through the financial system and allowed securities firms to borrow directly from the central bank for the first time since it was created in 1913.

The difference between what banks and the government pay to borrow is narrowing as confidence starts to return to capital markets frozen by the subprime collapse.

The gap between three-month Treasury bill yields and the three-month London interbank offered rate narrowed to 1.35 percentage points today from 2.03 percentage points on March 19. The spread reached 2.20 percent on Dec. 11 as investors rushed for the security of government debt and banks limited loans to each other, driving up loan costs. [...]

`Easing Mode'

``Much of the bad news has been priced in,'' said Colin Lundgren, head of institutional fixed income in Minneapolis at RiverSource Investments, which manages $100 billion of bonds. ``I'm not sure Treasuries in the next six to 12 months look that appealing, even though we're in a slowdown and the Fed is still in easing mode.''

A weekly survey by Ried, Thunberg & Co. shows that investors who oversee $1.47 trillion expect 10-year Treasury yields to rise by the end of June. The Jersey City, New Jersey- based firm's sentiment index was 48 on April 4, compared with 46 a week earlier. Readings below 50 mean investors anticipate lower prices.

It may be too early to become optimistic about the economy, according to Stuart Spodek, co-head of U.S. bonds in New York at BlackRock Inc., which manages $513 billion in debt.

`Strong Argument'

``The market's perhaps responding to the end of what was perceived to be a liquidity crisis or credit crunch,'' he said. ``You can make a very strong argument based on the chairman's comments and some of the data that the fundamental picture and the real economy picture haven't improved.''

The economy may expand 2.1 percent in the third quarter, from 0.55 percent this quarter and 0.2 percent in the first three months of the year, according to the median estimate of 85 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

Traders see a 36 percent chance the Fed will lower rates by a half-percentage point to 1.75 percent at its next scheduled meeting on April 30, down from 52 percent a week ago, according to interest-rate futures contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade.

Treasuries even fell on April 1, when UBS AG, Switzerland's biggest bank by assets, reported $19 billion of credit costs, and Deutsche Bank AG, Germany's largest bank, said it will write down $3.9 billion of loans and asset-backed debt.

``We're losing a little of the safe-haven bid,'' said Hendricks. ``Time will tell as to whether people are jumping the gun here or whether there's going to be another leg down, but for the moment the markets have definitely calmed down.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Daniel Kruger in New York at dkruger1@bloomberg.net; Sandra Hernandez in New York at shernandez4@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: April 7, 2008 10:26 EDT


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a6COKDe5XsoU&refer=home

Cada um tire as suas conclusões eu tirei as minhas.
"There are three faithful friends - an old wife, an old dog, and ready money." - Benjamin Franklin
 
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por Paionense » 7/4/2008 16:18

Olá

Não estou investido directamente em ouro, mas tenho acções de uma mineira que é quase a mesma coisa.

Não achas que essa onda 4 já esta concluida? É que o ouro tem estado a recuperar fortemente nas ultimas sessões e já está quase novamente nos 930.

Fica o Boneco da BVN
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Falemos de ouro

por Cavas » 7/4/2008 15:46

Uma pequena análise ao ouro
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