Dividendos da Galp rendem mais 17 milhões ao Estado

[acintra]

Estou convencido que o pior já foi divulgado, mas continuam ainda por sair noticias dos bancos que vão abalar o mercado.
Como estive de férias, alguem me diz se o Buffet chegou a acordo com a Ambac? Creio que reside aqui o próximo perigo, porque caso não exista acordo os ratings baixam e ai vem tudo como o castelo de cartas.

[Ulisses Pereira]

Nuno, por questões de transparência e já que apenas gere agora apenas a sua carteira, o Cramer tem uma série de regras muito rígidas como o facto de não poder negociar acções que comenta na semana anterior ou seguinte a se ter referido a elas. Também tem que manter as suas posições durante um prazo bastante longo que não sei precisar qual é...

Um abraço,
Ulisses

[nunofaustino]

Eneias, a opinião do Cramer é que a esmagadora maioria dos bancos vai conseguir superar sem grandes problemas esta crise. Com baixos lucros, é certo, mas sem dramatismo. Mas a Citi e a Merril estão um pouco mais expostas a esta crise, pelo que ainda é possível que surjam mais algumas más notícias desse lado.

Um abraço,
Ulisses

Hum... e então pq é que ele está longo em Citi? Olha para o que eu digo e não para o que eu faço?

Um abr
Nuno

[Ulisses Pereira]

Eneias, a opinião do Cramer é que a esmagadora maioria dos bancos vai conseguir superar sem grandes problemas esta crise. Com baixos lucros, é certo, mas sem dramatismo. Mas a Citi e a Merril estão um pouco mais expostas a esta crise, pelo que ainda é possível que surjam mais algumas más notícias desse lado.

Um abraço,
Ulisses

[djpirra]

Pelo que percebi, parece-se desdramatizar a crise e apenas reforçar o pedido de atenção sobre os investimentos futuros, principalmente na banca. De qualquer modo parece-me boas perspectivas não?

Tambem não "treli" mas...

[eneias]

Ulisses, comentários sobre o artigo não há?

Li e reli o artigo (falta o treli) e fico com dúvidas (não me refiro ao Inglês,o que não invalida que não haja aí também uma outra).

No mesmo texto parece que se dá "uma no cravo, outra na ferradura"! Tanto se lê "low profitability but not catastrophe" ou "better shape", como "Achilles heel" ou então "more pain ahead and more down days".

Caro druída, para que lado tende a tua leitura? A minha é quase de ficar na mesma, isto é, atento, ms neutro!

[Ulisses Pereira]

"Citi and Merrill Are Close to the Credit-Risk Edge"

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
2/19/2008 8:53 AM EST

"Citigroup (C - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) and Merrill (MER - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating). These two have become the epicenter of the unfathomable these days. They are the two that I have the least faith in.

I believe that we are seeing a sea change right now, a recognition that almost all the banks have so much fee income from their considerable deposit bases that they can ride this thing out with very low profitability but not catastrophe. If rates go lower, Wachovia (WB - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating), Bank of America (BAC - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) and Washington Mutual (WM - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) will be able to muddle through to the other side, taking charges as quickly as they can against the gains from the fees and the net interest margin that the Fed will give them if it has a brain. (That's questionable, but I will take a shot that it does, and I will shoot it if it doesn't, which, by the way, as a continual source of embarrassment, may actually matter! Yippee!)

But Citigroup and Merrill Lynch managements were dealt the worst hands by far of all the banks and brokers. The previous managements were so reckless and stupid that both companies either need much more capital if the monolines go, or Merrill has to sell itself.

Still, though, there's something else in the air here: If you can cordon the problems to those two, it means we are getting into better shape.

Now I know there are still land mines all over the place. There are credit default swaps that lurk, bond rating downgrades that sting and a sense that if housing doesn't turn, there will be more failures. I think there will be, but they will be concentrated in little regionals that can't access big capital and in these little financial firms that used their balance sheets to make extra cash, a la Moneygram (MGI - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating), which got bailed out anyway.

This fee stream, though, has been vastly underestimated as a reason why the banks are doing much better than they did in 1990. They have more than just a deposit base to live on; they have actual money coming in every day from all the charges to the customers.

It is true that each of the main banks has an Achilles heel: Bank of America stupidly bought the darned Countrywide (CFC - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) book, which is ridiculous. It should have written off the preferred and moved on. Washington Mutual has the worst underwriting standards courtesy of them trying to build a nationwide business and take share.

Wachovia bought Golden West at the top, and it's really doing wonders to try to wreck a great franchise. I have to admit that I am surprised that all the people who run these banks are still running them, but then again, the boards were probably complicit, and no one's squawking except for Kerry Killinger, the Wall of Shame-enshrined head of Wamu.

But it is Merrill and Citigroup that can't right now handle monoline declines. If I were those banks, I would be more inclined to help push for federal intervention for the monolines instead of the finger-in-the-dike method I see going on here.

Now, nothing happens if the Fed doesn't cut more except more questions about solvency of all these institutions plus the monolines, which is what is holding this market back.

But we should begin to recognize that while there is earnings risk to all of these companies, there is credit risk only to Merrill and Citigroup at this very moment. Hopefully the Fed sees that and keeps cutting. If not, without more funding, we are going to experience more pain ahead and more down days because of these two.

At the time of publication, Cramer was long Citigroup. "

(in www.realmoney.com)