Uma prensa XL, uma nave de pintura e o Governo a bordo. Autoeuropa prepara estrada do elétrico

[Ulisses Pereira]

Aí está como duas análises técnicas podem dar indicações distintas. A minha Linha de Tendência ascendente de longo prazo tem um traçado diferente e acredito que a Google quebrou essa linha que vinha suportando o "Bull Market" da acção.

Deixo os gráficos actualizados.

Um abraço,
Ulisses

[Midas]

Google Offers to Help Yahoo
Fight Off Microsoft
By KEVIN J. DELANEY and MATTHEW KARNITSCHNIG
February 4, 2008

Google Inc. Chief Executive Eric Schmidt called Yahoo Inc. CEO Jerry Yang to offer his company's help in any effort to thwart Microsoft Corp.'s unsolicited $44.6 billion bid for Yahoo, say people familiar with the matter.

The approach Friday from Google -- Microsoft's chief rival on the Internet -- came as Yahoo is assessing its options for responding to Microsoft's aggressive "bear hug" bid, which has sent aftershocks through the media and technology industries since its announcement three days ago. People familiar with the matter say Yahoo's board, which conferred by telephone Friday, hasn't taken a position so far and no rival bids have emerged yet, though it remains possible some will.
[complete coverage]

It is considered unlikely that Google would itself bid for Yahoo because of regulatory concerns related to their large shares of the search and online advertising markets. But the people familiar with the matter say Google could play a role in attempts by others to outbid Microsoft, or by Yahoo to remain independent. Google could potentially offer money, or guaranteed revenue in return for a Yahoo advertising outsourcing pact, under that scenario, say people familiar with the matter. Even such involvement by Google would likely attract antitrust scrutiny because of concerns that competition between the two Silicon Valley Internet companies could be reduced.

A Google spokesman declined to comment on any interest in Yahoo or contact between the two companies. Google in a blog post yesterday said Microsoft's pursuit of Yahoo "raises troubling questions" about whether it would give Microsoft too much power that could be abused. Microsoft responded by saying the deal would "create a more competitive marketplace by establishing a compelling No. 2 competitor for Internet search and online advertising."

One person familiar with the matter said that a number of technology, media and financial companies have since Friday discussed with Yahoo and its advisers their possible interest in participating in a bid for the company. But so far no serious rival bids have emerged from that, said people familiar with the matter.

AT&T Inc., News Corp. (owner of Dow Jones & Co., publisher of The Wall Street Journal) and Time Warner Inc. -- all considered candidates to do such a deal -- aren't preparing rival bids for Yahoo, according to people familiar with the matter. It remains possible, though unlikely, that could change, the people say.

Yahoo has said its directors would weigh the Microsoft offer and any alternatives, including keeping Yahoo independent, "and pursue the best course of action to maximize long-term value for shareholders." In a statement on its Web site, the company said "a review process like this is fluid, and it can take quite a bit of time."

Yahoo already had been in negotiations in recent weeks to outsource its Web-search advertising in Europe to Google, say people familiar with the matter. Since last year, investors have called for Yahoo to abandon its own search advertising system, which generates significantly less ad revenue for each consumer search, and use ads from Google in return for a majority share of the revenue.

The discussions with Google, which could potentially be a first step to a broader search-ad outsourcing deal, are expected to continue despite Microsoft's approach, says one of the people familiar with the matter. Another person said the two sides recently hit a disagreement on the revenue split between them.

Citigroup Global Markets analyst Mark Mahaney in a Friday research note estimated that Yahoo could boost its cash flow more than 25% annually by outsourcing all its search advertising to Google. Yahoo executives had considered such a maneuver as part of a strategic review last year, according to people familiar with the matter, but Mr. Yang in October had signaled that it had decided against it.

"We believe having a principal position in both search and display advertising is critical to creating...long-term shareholder value," Mr. Yang told analysts during Yahoo's earnings conference call in October. Yahoo's recent poor performance, including a sinking share price prior to Microsoft's bid and a tepid 2008 revenue outlook announced Tuesday, heightened calls for bolder moves by Mr. Yang, possibly spurring the change of heart toward Google.

Rival bids, including any with Google's support, could be crucial to efforts by Yahoo to at least secure a higher price for the company. Some investors believe Microsoft's offer of $31 a share -- a 62% premium to Yahoo's Thursday 4 p.m. trading on the Nasdaq -- is low, given that Yahoo shares traded at $33.63 as recently as Oct. 26.

In addition, they contend that the premium Microsoft is offering is insufficient because Yahoo holds cash and shares in publicly traded companies, including Yahoo Japan Corp. and Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., with a total market value of more than $12 per Yahoo share.

"We've got a very fair offer in front of the Yahoo shareholders," said Steve Ballmer, Microsoft's chief executive, in an interview yesterday.

Microsoft's determination to do the deal, and its deep pocketbook, could well deter rival acquirers. Another factor in whether a bidder emerges could be the prospects for regulatory review of a Microsoft purchase of Yahoo, says one person familiar with the matter.

Google and Microsoft exchanged barbs yesterday related to that issue. Google Senior Vice President David Drummond in a blog post asked whether Microsoft could "now attempt to exert the same sort of inappropriate and illegal influence over the Internet that it did with the PC."

Mr. Drummond accused Microsoft, which has been targeted by antitrust regulators in the U.S. and Europe for years, of "frequently [seeking] to establish proprietary monopolies -- and then [leveraging] its dominance into new, adjacent markets." (Read the full blog post.)

Microsoft General Counsel Brad Smith responded in a statement that "The combination of Microsoft and Yahoo will create a more competitive marketplace by establishing a compelling No. 2 competitor for Internet search and online advertising." Mr. Smith added that "the alternative scenarios only lead to less competition on the Internet."

Google identified instant messaging and Web email accounts as areas where a Microsoft-Yahoo combination would have "an overwhelming" market share. In the blog post, Google also questioned whether Microsoft could use its "PC software monopoly to unfairly limit the ability of consumers to freely access competitors' email, [instant messaging] and Web-based services."

Microsoft had clearly identified competition from Google as a key reason behind its bid for Yahoo. In a letter to Yahoo's board making the offer on Thursday, Mr. Ballmer said the online advertising market is "increasingly dominated by one player," a reference to Google. "Together, Microsoft and Yahoo can offer competitive choice while better fulfilling the needs of customers and partners," he added. The two have been largely unsuccessful in their intensive efforts to narrow the gap with Google in Web-search market share and to challenge its growing lead in Internet ad sales.

While Google and Yahoo are intense rivals in those areas, they share deep roots in Silicon Valley, whereas Microsoft is a plane ride away in Redmond, Wash. Mr. Yang, a Yahoo cofounder, has been opposed to a sale to Microsoft in the past, and some at Google believe it should try to help, say people familiar with the matter.

Google also has a potential interest in trying to thwart Microsoft, or at least make it pay more for Yahoo, given that the two compete in a growing number of areas ranging from search and online ads to consumer email, word processing and spreadsheet offerings. Google's Mr. Schmidt and some other top executives are veterans of competitive battles with Microsoft, both while at Google, and from previous posts at Sun Microsystems Inc. and Netscape Communications Corp., later purchased by Time Warner's AOL.

--Robert A. Guth, Jessica E. Vascellaro and Merissa Marr contributed to this article.

[Midas]

Quanto ao VIX está a fazer várias divergências negativas no gráfico semanal, e poderá estar a preparar um triplo topo para quebrar de vez a LTA que já dura há um ano. Com isso os preços irão encontrar estabilidade. Mas vamos acompanhar e um dia de cada vez.

[Midas]

Complementando a análise, poderemos ver que o nasdaq100 tem sido o lagger desta recuperação dos states, tendo encontrado resistência nos 1850, resistência horizontal e de Fibbo. Penso que esta semana poderemos assistir a um bom comportamento deste índice, já que os chamados 4 cavalos foram muito castigados e devem andar enfurecidos. Rimm, Apple, Bidu e Google, poderá ser a semana delas e com isso o nasdaq quebra finalmente os 1850 e dá um belo salto. Fica o gráfico. Penso que a quebrar aquela resistência poderá ir aos 1920 facilmente, se bem que estou de olho para sair das posições longas na casa dos 1980. Será pedir muito? Veremos

[artista_]

Olá Midas, embora concorde com a analise, diz-me a experiência que, quando a tendência dominante é de queda, não devo entrar em testes de suportes, a percentagem de acertos e o potencial não justificam o risco!

Bom fim de semana

[Midas]

Microsoft Investors Say Yahoo Acquisition Won't Overtake Google

By Dina Bass

Feb. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Some Microsoft Corp. shareholders say the software maker's $44.6 billion bid for Yahoo! Inc. may backfire and reduce its ability to compete with Google Inc. in Internet consumer services and advertising.

``This is a stupid deal, and I'm not happy,'' said Jane Snorek, who helps manage more than $70 billion in assets at First American Funds in Minneapolis. She said the firm began selling much of its Microsoft position yesterday, when the stock dropped 6.6 percent, the most since April 2006. ``I'm expecting slow market-share erosion from Microsoft and Yahoo.''

Microsoft Chief Executive Officer Steve Ballmer is attempting the biggest-ever technology takeover after his own efforts failed to narrow the gap with Google. Acquiring Yahoo would still leave Microsoft with a smaller share of the Web search market, and Ballmer would face the distraction of combining the businesses, said Colin Gillis, an analyst at Canaccord Adams in New York.

``Sergey and Larry are going to have no problems sleeping,'' Gillis said, referring to Google founders Sergey Brin and Larry Page. ``I don't see them tossing in their beds tonight.''

Gillis recommends buying Google shares, has a hold rating on Yahoo, and doesn't cover Microsoft. He said he doesn't own shares in the companies.

Microsoft Falls

The $31-a-share bid of cash or Microsoft stock is 62 percent more than Yahoo's closing price on Jan. 31. Microsoft, based in Redmond, Washington, fell $2.15, to $30.45 yesterday in Nasdaq Stock Market trading. Ballmer, 51, has presided over a 44 percent drop in Microsoft shares since taking over as CEO in January 2000.

Yahoo, which reported its eighth straight quarter of declining profit this week, had dropped 18 percent this year before the offer was announced. The shares rose $9.20, or 48 percent, to $28.38 yesterday.

Holders of Yahoo stock would be able to choose to take $31 in cash or 0.9509 of a Microsoft share for each Yahoo share. Microsoft will pay for half the purchase with cash and half with stock, the company said.

Yahoo, based in Sunnyvale, California, also has failed to break Google's hold on the market, losing Internet search users and share of the online ad market. The stock had lost almost half its value in the past two years before the deal was announced.

`Struggled Mightily'

``Yahoo has struggled mightily to compete against Google,'' said Dave Stepherson, a fund manager at Hardesty Capital Management in Baltimore, which holds about 281,000 Microsoft shares in its $650 million under management. ``That is not going to change just because they're pairing up with Microsoft.''

The price is ``incredibly expensive,'' and Microsoft may have done better by making smaller purchases to build out its own business, he said.

Ballmer himself told analysts in July 2006 that buying Yahoo wouldn't help Microsoft improve its search business, because only Google has a better quality product than Microsoft.

``There's no acquisition path,'' Ballmer said when asked whether Microsoft should make a large purchase.

Microsoft's bid is more than seven times larger than the $6 billion the company paid for AQuantive Inc., its largest previous acquisition. Microsoft doesn't have the experience to fix and combine Yahoo, said Jon Fisher, a portfolio manager at Fifth Third Asset Management in Minneapolis.

`Fixer-Upper'

``They never bought a fixer-upper before,'' said Fisher, whose firm manages $22 billion, including Microsoft shares.

The acquisition will probably face lengthy regulatory scrutiny, said Peter Kadzik, an antitrust partner at Dickstein Shapiro, a law firm in Washington. The U.S. Justice Department said yesterday that it is ``interested'' in reviewing the proposed combination. Neelie Kroes, commissioner of competition for the European Commission, will also investigate, she said yesterday.

Still, the deal would likely be approved because Google would continue to lead the Internet advertising market after the purchase, Kadzik said.

Google captured 56 percent of U.S. Web queries in December, almost double the combined share for Yahoo and Microsoft, which attracted 18 percent and 14 percent, according to New York-based Nielsen Online.

Microsoft Optimism

Some Microsoft shareholders were pleased with the bid.

``If Microsoft executes well, it could be a really good deal,'' said Robert Doll, who oversees $1.3 trillion as chief investment officer of global equities at New York-based BlackRock Inc. The firm owns Microsoft shares. ``The ball is going to be in Microsoft's court.''

The deal also makes sense because Yahoo is strong in Asia, while Microsoft's Web sites are popular in Latin America and Europe, said Bob Ivins, executive vice president of ComScore Inc., a market researcher in Reston, Virginia.

``When you combine the strengths of our two companies, the result will be an incredibly efficient and competitive offering,'' Ballmer said on a conference call yesterday. ``We believe now in those benefits more than ever.''

Yahoo said yesterday that it plans to evaluate the proposal ``promptly.''

Microsoft's bankers, Morgan Stanley and Blackstone Group LP, could split about $53 million in fees, and Yahoo's may get about $80 million, according to Bloomberg estimates based on publicly disclosed fees from about 600 transactions since 2005.

To contact the reporter on this story: Dina Bass in Seattle at dbass2@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: February 2, 2008 00:15 EST

[Midas]

Após uma queda desde os 720 dólares a Google está neste momento num suporte forte, quer a sua LTA ascendente, quer um suporte horizontal. Abri uma posição na Google na sexta-feira passada, aquando da sua queda e estou a apostar igualmente na Bidu. Por razões diferentes é certo, mas penso que a Google tem agora caminho aberto para começar a estabilizar a cotação e quem sabe ter umas entradas fortes a estes níveis. Fez um volume gigante na queda de sexta-feira, junto ao suporte e penso que estaremos na capitulação do seu bear-market de curto prazo. A parte disto o Stochastic e outros indicadores andam a fazer divergências o que é um sinal positivo na cotação. Assim espero uma boa semana para a Google. Quanto à Bidu é um buy a estes níveis para manter no cofres, já que está num mercado de mais de 1 bilião de pessoas e agora entrou no Japão, em que é líder de mercado. Fica o gráfico da Google.

Só mais uma achega, muita gente penso que estaria à espera deste leg down que poderá constituir um duplo fundo e poderemos assistir a muitas entradas nessa expectativa.