Como se combate o populismo? "Com eleições", responde Fukuyama

[Infoo]

oficialmente um pelas 12:40ET e outro pelas 13:00ET

e o mercado tremeu


1:00 PM ET 8/22/06 MOSKOW: RECENT JOB GROWTH NOT AS WEAK AS ANALYSTS THINK
1:00 PM ET 8/22/06 MOSKOW SEES LITTLE EVIDENCE OF WORRISOME SLOWDOWN
1:00 PM ET 8/22/06 MOSKOW: AUG. 8 PAUSE GIVES FED TIME TO ASSESS OUTLOOK
1:00 PM ET 8/22/06 MOSKOW: Q2 GDP SLOWDOWN DUE TO TRANSITORY FACTORS
1:00 PM ET 8/22/06 MOSKOW: INFLATION RISK IS GREATER THAN SLOWDOWN RISK
1:00 PM ET 8/22/06 FED'S MOSKOW: CENTRAL BANK MIGHT NOT BE DONE HIKING RATES

THE FED:More rate hikes may be needed: Moskow; Fed official says inflation risks might require more 'firming'
By Greg Robb, MarketWatch Last Update: 1:23 PM ET Aug 22, 2006

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Financial markets shouldn't assume that policymakers at the Federal Reserve are done raising interest rates, said Michael Moskow, president of the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank.

Moskow has consistently delivered an anti-inflation warning to financial markets this year, and his speech Tuesday to the McLean County, Ill., Chamber of Commerce was no exception.

He said his assessment of current economic conditions is "that the risk of inflation remaining too high is greater than the risk of growth being too low."
"Thus, some additional firming of policy may yet be necessary to bring inflation back into the comfort zone within a reasonable period of time," Moskow said.

Moskow said growth in the nation's economy should slow to just below a 3% rate for gross domestic product. But he said he didn't see signs of "a more worrisome downshift in activity."

Job growth over the past three months isn't the sign of a slowdown that many economists have assumed, Moskow said.

He added that the second quarter's GDP growth rate of 2.5%, down sharply from the first three months of the year, was probably due to temporary factors.
Moskow isn't a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, which sets monetary policy, this year.

In his remarks, Moskow said a pause in hiking interest rates earlier in August was a "constructive choice."

It would allow the Fed to evaluate a variety of important developments, he said.

First, it's hard to judge how restrictive interest rates are at the 5.25% level, he said. Second, more information will be available about how extensive the slowdown is in the U.S. housing market.

And finally, the Fed will be able to see if the economy does indeed bounce back from the weak second quarter and if energy prices level off, according to Moskow.
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12:40 PM ET 8/22/06 GUYNN: CONSEQUENCES OF HIGH INFLATION REMAIN 'POISONOUS'
12:40 PM ET 8/22/06 FED'S GUYNN DEPARTS STAGE WITH ANOTHER INFLATION WARNING

THE FED: Inflation is poison, Fed's Guynn says in farewell
By Greg Robb, MarketWatch Last Update: 1:04 PM ET Aug 22, 2006

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Inflation is poison to the economy, Atlanta Fed President Jack Guynn said Tuesday in his farewell speech as a central banker.
Guynn is retiring on Oct. 1 after a 40-year career at the Atlanta Fed. His speech Tuesday looked back on his career and offered some final words of advice to his colleagues not to forget the lessons of the 1970s that inflation is "poisonous" to an economy.

"I am sure future policymakers will remember the lessons we learned in the past 40 years about what happens when you start down the slippery slope of trading inflation for growth," Guynn said in remarks prepared for delivery to the Kiwanis Club of Atlanta.

Guynn's warning on inflation comes as the Fed debates whether to raise interest rates again to combat a higher-than-desired inflation rate, or whether to allow a slowing economy to remove inflationary pressures over time.

The Fed held interest rates steady earlier this month, and most analysts expect a similar pause at the Sept. 20 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. However, some economists believe high inflation rates will ultimately force the Fed to raise overnight interest rates at least one more time from the current 5.25%. See our complete coverage of the Fed.

"As we should now know, a bit of inflation can get out of hand quickly, especially when consumers and businesses expect more price increases, waste time and effort trying to beat inflation, and then rush to spend more money in a vicious inflationary cycle," he said.

"The consequences of high inflation were and remain economically poisonous: increased uncertainty and risk, the added incentive to consume instead of invest, cost of living adjustments, and other marketplace distortions," Guynn said.

Guynn has been the head of the Atlanta Fed since 1996. He worked his way up through the bank after he joined it in the mid-1960s. He is a voting FOMC member this year.

Guynn said the Fed was able to avoid the spotlight until the early 1980s, when Fed chairman Paul Volcker hiked interest rates into double digits to break the back of high inflation.

Guynn's remarks highlight how uncomfortable the Fed remains with so much media and market attention focused on its actions and communication.
He said he was often surprised by market reactions to Fed comments.

"Clearly, more central bank communications are helpful, but there is ample room to debate how to reflect the range of views and uncertainties that are inherent in the policymaking process," Guynn said.