Como se combate o populismo? "Com eleições", responde Fukuyama

[Jack]

"Buy Ahead of Next Employment Report"

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
6/22/2006 9:44 AM EDT


"One week from now we will have a Big Bad Event, an interest rate rise that is baked into the futures and the stock market. There will be immense hand-wringing when it happens, but we expect that the hike is going to happen so the handwringing must be ignored as a non-event, even as what drives it is Big and Bad. Now, we also think that there will be another rate hike in August. But we will have not one but two employment numbers before then, and I think both will be soft because of the downturn in construction and the auto layoffs.

That makes buying ahead of this employment number, the one due July 7, a fantastic opportunity, when you think about it, because those who think there has to be a second rate hike can't possibly see through two employment numbers. The fact that the August Fed meeting comes four days after that employment number makes the Fed's situation problematic. We already have a second interest rate hike baked in, but that's false; we just can't tell what's going to happen, because of the employment number.

So think about the asymmetric notion of what faces the market: two hikes baked in, with only one that could be baked in. That makes it so anything but a second hike should ignite the market. You need to be in ahead of that thinking, which will become perceived wisdom shortly after the June employment number is delivered.

So the opportunity is there, but you have to move on any pullback, which we will, of course get, because I suspect that many players will be absent Friday. This market has tended to go down when there is no liquidity because of the ease of knocking the futures down when no one is around. It can't be counted on, though, which means that weakness today is a gift, unless you are banking on a Big Bad Event to cause things to go down.

I don't think that will happen. Too many people need to buy the market ahead of the end of the quarter, so you may not be able to act swiftly on that day."

(in www.realmoney.com)

A mim, o que me cheira é que nem o primeiro vai acontecer...
Portanto o raciocínio está correcto, mas ele está atrasado no tempo!

[Ulisses Pereira]

"Buy Ahead of Next Employment Report"

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
6/22/2006 9:44 AM EDT


"One week from now we will have a Big Bad Event, an interest rate rise that is baked into the futures and the stock market. There will be immense hand-wringing when it happens, but we expect that the hike is going to happen so the handwringing must be ignored as a non-event, even as what drives it is Big and Bad. Now, we also think that there will be another rate hike in August. But we will have not one but two employment numbers before then, and I think both will be soft because of the downturn in construction and the auto layoffs.

That makes buying ahead of this employment number, the one due July 7, a fantastic opportunity, when you think about it, because those who think there has to be a second rate hike can't possibly see through two employment numbers. The fact that the August Fed meeting comes four days after that employment number makes the Fed's situation problematic. We already have a second interest rate hike baked in, but that's false; we just can't tell what's going to happen, because of the employment number.

So think about the asymmetric notion of what faces the market: two hikes baked in, with only one that could be baked in. That makes it so anything but a second hike should ignite the market. You need to be in ahead of that thinking, which will become perceived wisdom shortly after the June employment number is delivered.

So the opportunity is there, but you have to move on any pullback, which we will, of course get, because I suspect that many players will be absent Friday. This market has tended to go down when there is no liquidity because of the ease of knocking the futures down when no one is around. It can't be counted on, though, which means that weakness today is a gift, unless you are banking on a Big Bad Event to cause things to go down.

I don't think that will happen. Too many people need to buy the market ahead of the end of the quarter, so you may not be able to act swiftly on that day."

(in www.realmoney.com)