Como se combate o populismo? "Com eleições", responde Fukuyama

[GAB]

ENTRADA/COMPRA:

Morphosys (Alemanha)

[GAB]

Tenho acompanhado em watchlist(designada como Lucros-APOSTA) vários activos que cotam a valores muito baixos( abaixo de 5 cêntimos & mesmo abaixo de 1 cêntimo) e com um enorme volume diário, esses activos estão em sectores que me parecem promissores.
São activos cujo risco é enormíssimo, mas arrisco porque usarei 5% dos lucros gerais(tendo como base a carteira INICIAL GAB, aliás referência base para todas as position-sizes dos trades).

notas:
Carteira atingiu o 1° OBJECTIVO = 30%, desses 30% usarei 5%.
5% corresponde a {15,20%(1/6)} dos lucros gerais.

esses 5% serão "geridos" independentemente( LUCROS-Apostas) e terão position size de 1% a máx de 1,5%.( EX: 2 activos de 1,5% e 2 activos de 1% ou então 5 activos de 1%)ou (o mesmo activo com entradas parciais, ou seja posso ter um mesmo activo que entrei 2X 1% totalizando 2%, mas cada entrada é vista&gerida como activos distintos).
Somente para se ter ideia do numerário a que corresponde, informo que 1% corresponde a 950usd a 1600usd.

CORRENDO BEM, poderei ter boas rentabilidades nesses activos.
CORRENDO mal, arrisco perder lucros até um máximo de 5%.

[GAB]

Activo que eventualmente poderá fazer parte da carteira GAB.

FreightCar America Inc (NASDAQ Stock Exchange)
TICKER: RAIL
Ultimo preço: 63.12 USD -0.77 (-1.21%)

FreightCar America, Inc. is a manufacturer of aluminum-bodied railroad freight cars (railcars) in North America. The Company specializes in the production of coal-carrying railcars, which represented 78% of its deliveries of railcars, during the year ended December 31, 2004, while the balance of its production consisted of a broad spectrum of railcar types, including aluminum-bodied and steel-bodied railcars. It also refurbishes and rebuilds railcars and sells forged, cast and fabricated parts for all of the railcars that the Company produces, as well as those manufactured by others. Prior to April 1, 2005, the Company was named FCA Acquisition Corp. On April 1, 2005, a former parent company, also named FreightCar America, Inc., merged with and into FCA Acquisition Corp., with FCA Acquisition Corp. being the surviving corporation. In connection with the merger, FCA Acquisition Corp. changed its name to FreightCar America, Inc.
http://www.investor.reuters.wallst.com/ ... ker=RAIL.O

Notas para eventual trade:

[GAB]

Notas para COGO:
http://www.investors.com/member/checkup ... lse&ac=YHO

[GAB]

Activo de virá a fazer parte da carteira GAB( na ultima sessão teve subida interessante com AUMENTO DE VOLUME e foi a máximos o que tecnicamente fica um LINDO GRAFICO).
Talvez entrada se dê numa retracção intradiária se houver.... estratégia a ser ainda "Planeada" este fim de semana.

Comtech Group Inc. (COGO)
On May 26: $16.27 1.80 (12.44%)

Web Site: http://www.comtech.com.cn
Comtech Group, Inc. and its subsidiaries provide module design solutions to various electronic manufacturers in China. Its customized module design solutions include liquid crystal display modules, camera modules, persistent storage modules, input/output modules, sound system, and power supplies for mobile handsets; fixed line telecom network modules, data communications modules, optical transmission modules, and wireless base-station modules for telecom equipment; and IPTV set-top box modules and DTV modules for consumer electronics. The company’s module design solutions enable its customers to use technology components in their products. It offers its products to original equipment manufacturers of mobile handsets, telecom equipment, and digital consumer electronics products, as well as subsystem designers and manufacturers worldwide. Comtech Group was incorporated in 1917 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, China.

Notas:

Comtech Group, Inc. Reports First Quarter Results

SHENZHEN, China, May 9, 2006 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- Comtech Group, Inc. (COGO), a leading provider of customized module design solutions as well as other engineering and business services for more than 200 domestic and international technology product manufacturing companies based in China, today announced financial results for its first quarter which ended March 31, 2006. The Company reported record revenue of approximately $33.9 million, up 63.1 percent, compared to $20.8 million reported in the first quarter of 2005, with continued growth in three of the Company's primary business markets: mobile handset, telecommunications infrastructure equipment and digital consumer electronic products, which collectively the Company believes are among the fastest growing consumer markets in China. The Company also began to recognize revenues from its newly launched engineering services business. As a result of an increasing percentage of new business revenues, gross margins improved 3.8 percent to 19.1 percent versus the first quarter of 2005. Net income for the quarter was approximately $3.3 million, up 71.2 percent from the respective period last year. Earnings per share or ("EPS") on a US GAAP basis was $0.10 with pro forma EPS (excluding share-based compensation expense) of $0.11.
Key Financial Indicators
(all numbers in thousands, except per-share amounts)
Q12006 Q12005 Percent
Change

Consolidated Revenue $33,895 $20,782 63.1%
Cost of Revenues $27,405 $17,606 55.7%
Gross Profit $6,490 $3,176 104.3%
Total Net Operating Expense $2,298 $953 141.1%
Income from Operations $4,192 $2,223 88.6%
Net Income $3,271 $1,911 71.2%
EPS Diluted $0.10 $0.07 42.9%
Pro forma EPS Diluted $0.11 $0.07 57.1% (excluding share-based expense)

(1) The US dollar amounts are calculated based on the conversion rate of
US $1 to RMB 8.0167 as of March 31, 2006 and US $1 to RMB 8.2765 as of
March 31, 2005.

(2) Included in the Q1 2006 net income was an amount of $299,000 for
share-based compensation cost to reflect the adoption of Statement of
Financial Accounting Standards No.123 (revised 2004), Share-Based
Payment ("SFAS 123R"), effective January 1, 2006. Without the
adoption of SFAS 123R, the Company would have reported a net income of
$3,570 or a $0.11 net income per diluted share in Q1 2006.

First quarter highlights include:
-- For the fifth consecutive quarter the Company achieved the highest
quarterly revenue in its history and increases revenues sequentially
from the fourth quarter overcoming several seasonal factors.
-- The Company recorded approximately $1 million (USD) in engineering
service revenue from Huawei which yielded a gross margin of
approximately 41.9%.
-- Through its newly formed relationship with Vishay Intertechnology,
Comtech will begin designing customized module designs targeting the
rapidly growing domestic automobile electronics industry in China.
Comtech expects to see initial revenues from automobile electronics
industry in the fourth quarter of 2006 with a more significant
contribution in 2007.
-- Announced first major 3G phone design from Huawei's new Vodafone
project with shipments expected in the fourth quarter of this year.

Recent Developments:


In the beginning of the second quarter the Company signed a strategically important agreement with Huawei representing the Company's first major 3G handset design win. With this agreement Comtech can now establish a presence in this rapidly growing mobile handset market and leverage the decision of its long time customer, Huawei, to begin manufacturing handsets. Comtech will provide several customized module designs for Huawei's new Vodafone-branded 3G phone. Huawei expects initial shipments to begin during the second half of the year to Vodafone's international customers. Comtech expects to generate revenue from this product during the third quarter. 3G licenses have yet to be granted in China but industry experts have speculated that the government will issue licenses later this year with a significant pent-up demand as both existing and new customers are eager to access the increased functionality associated with 3G. In addition to Huawei, Comtech has been working with virtually all the major handset makers, thus Comtech will be well positioned to capitalize on this domestic opportunity once licenses are issued.

Financial Results:

Revenue for the first quarter was approximately $33.9 million (USD), an increase of 63.1 percent compared to $20.8 million in the first quarter of last year. The composition of revenues was: $15.0 million, or 44 percent of total sales, for mobile handsets representing a 17 percent increase, $11.9 million, or 35 percent of sales for telecommunications infrastructure equipment representing a 54 percent increase, and $6.0 million for digital home entertainment products and others, or 18 percent of total sales which is up significantly versus minimal revenues last year. The Company's new engineering business services revenues totaled $1.0 million for the quarter and was the Company's first quarter of recording such related service revenues.

Cost of revenues, which includes the aggregate purchase of components from suppliers and the direct cost of services, were $27.4 million compared to $17.6 million, an increase of 55.7 percent. Gross profit for the quarter was approximately $6.5 million, up 104.3 percent compared to $3.2 million last year. Gross margins were 19.1 percent which improved sequentially from 18.6 percent and 15.3 percent from the year ago period. Gross margins continued to benefit from more in-depth designs, increasing engineering service, location based search and digital home entertainment revenue during the quarter. Each of these service and product offerings carries a higher profit margin compared to the Company's previous product sales.

"For the first time this quarter we received high margin, recurring service revenues as a result of our recently announced contract win with Huawei," commented Jeffrey Kang, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. "We continue to grow our core module design business while expanding our offerings to provide engineering and other business services to our existing customer base. As these new services and product offerings become a larger portion of our overall revenue our gross margins will continue to benefit."

Selling, general and administrative expenses were approximately $1.4 million, up 74.8 percent compared to $0.8 million last year. The increase versus the prior period was a result of overall growth in the business, additional headcount attributable to our new service and product offerings and a partial inclusion of the non-cash impact of stock option expense. Research and development expenses increased substantially by $0.7 million to $0.9 million for the quarter as the Company continues to invest in developing new and higher margin products while also recognizing the remaining portion of non-cash stock option expense. Income from operations was $4.2 million representing an 88.6 percent increase from $2.2 million in the first quarter last year. Operating margins showed a meaningful increase to 12.4 percent from 10.7 percent last year as the Company benefited from the previously discussed gross margin improvement, greater leverage of the expense base and the removal of related expenses surrounding the new businesses to minority interest expense. The effective income tax rate for the first quarter of 2006 was 10.3 percent, compared to 8.3 percent for the same period of 2005. Minority interest for the first quarter was $0.7 million up from $0.1 million last year. Minority interest increased as net income associated with non-wholly owned subsidiaries increased such as engineering services.

Net income for the first quarter was $3.3 million, or EPS of $0.10 on a US GAAP basis or pro forma EPS (excluding share-based compensation expense) of $0.11, compared to net income of $1.9 million, or $0.07 EPS last year. Earnings per share showed a 42.9 percent increase despite an increase in average shares outstanding during the period. Included in the first quarter 2006 net income was an amount of $299,000 for share-based compensation cost to reflect the adoption of SFAS 123R, effective January 1, 2006. Without the adoption of SFAS 123R, the Company would have reported net income of $3.6 million or $0.11 diluted earnings per share for the first quarter.

Mr. Kang continued, "We are very pleased with both our revenue and earnings results this quarter as demand for our products remains strong. Our new service and product offerings have begun to yield incremental revenues and we believe the opportunity remains large and under-penetrated in each respective market. We remain committed to identifying high-growth areas where our products are differentiated and where we can establish a unique niche with our large and growing installed customer base."

Balance Sheet:

The Company completed the quarter with $23.3 million in cash, up $1.4 million from the fourth quarter of 2005. Total debt as of the end of the first quarter was $5.5 million and was relatively unchanged from the end of 2005. The Company continues to be in a strong financial position with a current ratio of 5.0 to 1. Shareholders equity improved 179.9 percent to $67.9 million as compared to the first quarter of last year.
Business Outlook:

Based on our performance this quarter and current visibility management is reiterating full year 2006 revenue guidance of $135 to $140 million, or 26 to 30 percent growth versus 2005, but increasing pro forma earnings per share guidance (excluding share-based expense) to $0.52 from the prior guidance of at least $0.50 in pro forma earnings (excluding share-based expense).

Mr. Kang concluded, "Comtech's core asset is our large and long standing customer base, and our focus remains on growing our business to meet our existing customers' needs. This allows us to avoid overall technology risk while providing a high degree of visibility to our revenues. We continue to remain optimistic on our prospects to expand our existing and new businesses and the initial success within our engineering service offering is consistent with this goal. We are off to a solid start and as these businesses continue to grow it will drive further revenue growth while benefiting our overall profitability and facilitating a further diversification of our business."

Top 5 Companies in the Telecom-Wireless Equip Group Stocks Above $10 - Sorted By Best Overall Rating
Comtech Group Inc COGO

Garmin Ltd GRMN

Radyne Corporation RADN

Trimble Navigation Ltd TRMB

Anaren Inc ANEN

Partners:

[GAB]

[b]Próxima aquisição para a carteira GAB:[/b]
(passou para watchlist e carece de análise gráfica a ser feita este fim de semana para entrar para a carteira na próxima semana ou num "ponto" que considere de entrar).

LJ International Inc. (JADE)
On May 26: $3.27 0.04 (1.24%)
LJ International, Inc. engages in designing, branding, manufacturing, marketing, and distributing fine jewelry. The company specializes in the semiprecious jewelry, as well as offers pieces set in yellow gold, white gold, platinum, or sterling silver and adorned with semiprecious stones, diamonds, pearls, and precious stones. Its product line includes earrings, necklaces, pendants, rings, and bracelets. The company distributes its products principally to fine jewelers, department stores, national jewelry chains, and electronic and specialty retailers throughout North America and western Europe, as well as in Japan and the People’s Republic of China. LJ International was incorporated in 1987 and is based in Hong Kong

Web Site: http://www.ljintl.com

[GAB]

Actualizações:

[GAB]

Entrada/Compra:


Intrepid Technology & Resource Inc. (IESV.OB)

5% carteira a $0,051

Custou mas foi, em 3 ordens acabei por a adquirir, tais ordens dão já de comissão-compra 0,33%.

Considero & tenho consciência que o position-size para este activo é GRANDE DEMAIS do que deveria ser( Tendo em conta valor da carteira o position size que considerava ADEQUADO seria 0,8%-1%).Como tenho Lucros superiores a 30%, arrisquei.

Este titulo tem um timeframe de 12-24meses & com expectativas que faça 100% a 500%.( Se valorizar 100% poderei eventualmente retirar o investido e ficar exposto somente com o lucro, mas tal será de EQUACIONAR futuramente)

Está ligado ao ETHANOL/EnergiasRenováveis e penso que tal tem futuro daí o arriscar.
O "refrescar" de Management da empresa tb deixa boas expectativas:
http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/060524/0131209.html

SITE: http://www.intrepid21.com/

[GAB]

Act de títulos em carteira & graf da carteira:

[GAB]

ENTRADA-LONGO/Compra :
VRDM.OB 6,90% da carteira a $0,106
(tinha planeado já ontem entrar se fosse a 0,11.)

Entrada/compra:
Bunge Ltd. (BG), 5% cart a $57,00

ENTRADA-LONGO/Compra:
Ebof.ob 5% a $3,420

ENTRADA-LONGO/Compra:
Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. (SIRI)
7,5% cart a $4,00

ENTRADA/Compra:
Capstone Turbine Corp. (CPST)
10% da carteira a $3,05

COMPRA /ENTARDA:
AANI.OB 5% a $0,72

[GAB]

MIDWAYGAMES, cujo "chart" se encontra 6 post acima deste:

Quebrou aquele suporte e agora para mim está BEAR.

[GAB]

COMPRA /ENTARDA:

AANI.OB 5% a $0,72

[GAB]

ENTRADA/Compra:
Capstone Turbine Corp. (CPST)

10% da carteira a $3,05

[GAB]

ENTRADA-LONGO/Compra:
Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. (SIRI)
7,5% cart a $4,00

[GAB]

ENTRADA-LONGO/Compra:

Ebof.ob 5% a $3,420

[GAB]

Entrada/compra:
Bunge Ltd. (BG), 5% cart a $57,00

[GAB]

ENTRADA-LONGO/Compra:

VRDM.OB 6,90% da carteira a $0,106
(tinha planeado já ontem entrar se fosse a 0,11.)

[GAB]

Graf M.GAMES:

[GAB]

Act títulos em carteira:

[GAB]

Actualização de MOVIMENTOS2:

VENDAS/SAIDAS/FECHOS:

ETHANOL
PEIX:
5% a $31,50
5% a $31,00

XTHN.OB:
5% a $29,60 (ERRO),ERRATA: CERTO é $9,60

EBOF.OB
5% a $3,85
5% a $3,805
5% a $3,80

Nota, fico exposto a ETHANOL em EBOF.OB em 5% da carteira.
( Tb estou a tentar uma entrada em vrdm.ob a 0,11$)

TGB
5% a $2,57
5% a $2,564
(assim salvo o trade, pois a saida é uma saida com um pequeno ganho, depois de ter estado negativo)


IIP
10% a $1,19
(salvar o trade)

[GAB]

ACT movimentos (REDITUS):

Várias Ordens de Venda para conseguir sair, devido a FALTA de liquidez e á grande volatilidade.

SAÍDA/Venda:

REDITUS 18% cart a 3,30€

VENDA:

FECHO DA Posição em REDITUS.
(ainda não fiz o preço médio, oportunamente actualizo RED).

PR. Médio 3,2693€

[GAB]

VENDAS/SAIDAS/FECHOS:

Vai dar trabalho actualizar.


ETHANOL
PEIX:
5% a $31,50
5% a $31,00

XTHN.OB:
5% a $29,60

EBOF.OB
5% a $3,85
5% a $3,805
5% a $3,80

Nota, fico exposto a ETHANOL em EBOF.OB em 5% da carteira.
( Tb estou a tentar uma entrada em vrdm.ob a 0,11$)

TGB
5% a $2,57
5% a $2,564
(assim salvo o trade, pois a saida é uma saida com um pequeno ganho, depois de ter estado negativo)


IIP
10% a $1,19
(salvar o trade)

[GAB]

VENDA:

FECHO DA Posição em REDITUS.
(ainda não fiz o preço médio, oportunamente actualizo RED).

PR. Médio 3,2693€

[GAB]

VENDA:

FECHO DA Posição em REDITUS.
(ainda não fiz o preço médio, oportunamente actualizo RED)
Para poder sair tive de optar por várias Ordens de venda, colocadas aqui, ali para poder sair o melhor possivel e porque o BID/ASK é como se vê muito fraquinho.
TAL VAI PESAR nas comissões o que agrava perdas.


Tinha vindo a reduzir para ter liquidez, contudo hoje opto por fechar posição na REDITUS.

FOI um activo em que arrisquei muito(expus-me demasiado)( A exposição elevada á RED tinha vários fundamentos/motivos que sairam "furados").

Resultados do 1Q2006 para mim foram NEUTROS no sentido GERAL, mas eu contava com melhores.

Depois de ter estado a cotar "bom tempo" nesta zona em que está agora(3,24-3,33)teve aquele arranque e quebrou um valor que eu achava primordial 3,65,3,68€, udo isto acaba por ser em vão e volta a este ponto de partida, O QUE COMEçA A NAO ME AGRADAR.
ALIAS Já FOI a MINIMOS...

OPTO assim por sair, CUT LOSSES, assumindo perdas com IMPORTANTE IMPACTO NA CARTEIRA GERAL.

[GAB]

SAÍDA/Venda:

REDITUS 18% cart a 3,30€