Trading almanac predicts 6-month slump in stocks
2 mensagens
|Página 1 de 1
Artigo interessante. Mas, ... em triplicado? 
Não havia necessidade...
Será que ainda não chegou aqui o simplex ?
Publicava-se só uma via e tirava cópia quem precisasse ...
Não havia necessidade...
Será que ainda não chegou aqui o simplex ?
Publicava-se só uma via e tirava cópia quem precisasse ...
"Não há ventos favoráveis para o barco que não conhece o rumo" Séneca
-
- Mensagens: 1009
- Registado: 22/2/2006 0:39
- Localização: RIBATEJO
Trading almanac predicts 6-month slump in stocks
Fonte: http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/05/01/ ... invest.php
Investing: Trading almanac predicts 6-month slump in stocks
By Daniel Hauck Bloomberg News
TUESDAY, MAY 2, 2006
NEW YORK "Sell in May and go away" became a Wall Street axiom two decades ago, thanks to the Stock Trader's Almanac. The strategy may be more compelling than usual for U.S. stock investors this year, according to the almanac's editor.
The Dow Jones industrial average may tumble as much as 30 percent between May and October from the six- year high set last month, said Jeffrey Hirsch, president of the Hirsch Organization in Nyack, New York. His forecast reflects the six-month period's track record, the mid-term U.S. congressional election in November and Ben Bernanke's arrival as Federal Reserve chairman.
"We have a very lofty market entering a seasonably unfavorable time in the most vulnerable period in the election cycle," said Hirsch, whose father, Yale, started the almanac. "This is something that we've been pounding the table about, and we're even more concerned about it now."
Hirsch is not the only analyst anticipating a retreat. Tim Hayes of Ned Davis Research said stocks might slide at least 10 percent in the next six months. Bear Stearns' François Trahan said the history of the "sell in May" strategy ought to make bulls cautious.
The market stalled last week as Microsoft gave a disappointing profit forecast and China raised its main interest rate. J.P. Morgan Chase led banking stocks higher as Bernanke signaled that the Fed may suspend a policy that has resulted in rate increases at 15 straight meetings.
For the week, the Standard & Poor's 500 index lost 0.1 percent to 1,310.61 and the Nasdaq composite index fell 0.9 percent to 2,322.57. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 0.2 percent to 11,367.14.
The S&P 500 notched a 1.2 percent gain for April, its best performance since January, and the Dow reached levels not seen since January 2000. First-quarter profits that topped analysts' estimates drove the rally, a fitting end to what traditionally has been the market's best six-month stretch.
About 70 percent of the S&P 500 companies that reported earnings beat Wall Street's projections, above the 57 percent average since 1992, data from Thomson Financial shows.
Verizon Communications, the second-largest U.S. telephone company after AT&T, will post earnings Tuesday. Time Warner, the world's biggest media company, and Procter & Gamble, the largest U.S. maker of household goods, will follow a day later.
Financial newsletter writers are predicting that stocks will fall 10 percent, according to Investors Intelligence. Advisers predicting a "correction" climbed in the week ended April 21 to 28.8 percent, the most since August 2004, according to a survey by the newsletter, based in New Rochelle, New York.
Their opinions may reflect the calendar. An investor who placed $10,000 in the Dow average at the end of April each year since 1950 and sold at the end of October would have had a net loss of $272, according to Hirsch's calculations. Doing the opposite would have gained $534,323.
The Dow has risen 0.3 percent on average in the May to October period since 1950. For November through April, the Dow has climbed 7.9 percent - a performance that reflects year-end bonuses, tax refunds and pension-fund contributions flowing into stocks.
Last year, the 30-stock average gained 2.4 percent in May to October. The Dow industrials then climbed 8.9 percent from November to last week.
"There is validity to the seasonal trend in any given year, but especially in an election year," said Hayes, chief investment strategist at Ned Davis in Venice, Florida, whose more than 1,000 clients include some of the biggest investors.
Data from S&P shows that in a president's four-year term, the second and third quarters before mid-term elections are the weakest periods for stocks. The S&P 500 has fallen 2 percent and 2.2 percent, respectively, on average since 1945.
The Dow average's low for years that featured mid-term elections was 22.2 percent below the previous year's high on average since 1913, Hirsch said.
This year, the trend may be especially meaningful "when we think about how low the popularity of the president and Congress have dropped," Hayes said. "That adds to the uncertainty."
President George W. Bush's approval rating in a Wall Street Journal-NBC News poll published last week slipped to 36 percent, his lowest ever. The rating for Congress was lower, 22 percent.
Investing: Trading almanac predicts 6-month slump in stocks
By Daniel Hauck Bloomberg News
TUESDAY, MAY 2, 2006
NEW YORK "Sell in May and go away" became a Wall Street axiom two decades ago, thanks to the Stock Trader's Almanac. The strategy may be more compelling than usual for U.S. stock investors this year, according to the almanac's editor.
The Dow Jones industrial average may tumble as much as 30 percent between May and October from the six- year high set last month, said Jeffrey Hirsch, president of the Hirsch Organization in Nyack, New York. His forecast reflects the six-month period's track record, the mid-term U.S. congressional election in November and Ben Bernanke's arrival as Federal Reserve chairman.
"We have a very lofty market entering a seasonably unfavorable time in the most vulnerable period in the election cycle," said Hirsch, whose father, Yale, started the almanac. "This is something that we've been pounding the table about, and we're even more concerned about it now."
Hirsch is not the only analyst anticipating a retreat. Tim Hayes of Ned Davis Research said stocks might slide at least 10 percent in the next six months. Bear Stearns' François Trahan said the history of the "sell in May" strategy ought to make bulls cautious.
The market stalled last week as Microsoft gave a disappointing profit forecast and China raised its main interest rate. J.P. Morgan Chase led banking stocks higher as Bernanke signaled that the Fed may suspend a policy that has resulted in rate increases at 15 straight meetings.
For the week, the Standard & Poor's 500 index lost 0.1 percent to 1,310.61 and the Nasdaq composite index fell 0.9 percent to 2,322.57. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 0.2 percent to 11,367.14.
The S&P 500 notched a 1.2 percent gain for April, its best performance since January, and the Dow reached levels not seen since January 2000. First-quarter profits that topped analysts' estimates drove the rally, a fitting end to what traditionally has been the market's best six-month stretch.
About 70 percent of the S&P 500 companies that reported earnings beat Wall Street's projections, above the 57 percent average since 1992, data from Thomson Financial shows.
Verizon Communications, the second-largest U.S. telephone company after AT&T, will post earnings Tuesday. Time Warner, the world's biggest media company, and Procter & Gamble, the largest U.S. maker of household goods, will follow a day later.
Financial newsletter writers are predicting that stocks will fall 10 percent, according to Investors Intelligence. Advisers predicting a "correction" climbed in the week ended April 21 to 28.8 percent, the most since August 2004, according to a survey by the newsletter, based in New Rochelle, New York.
Their opinions may reflect the calendar. An investor who placed $10,000 in the Dow average at the end of April each year since 1950 and sold at the end of October would have had a net loss of $272, according to Hirsch's calculations. Doing the opposite would have gained $534,323.
The Dow has risen 0.3 percent on average in the May to October period since 1950. For November through April, the Dow has climbed 7.9 percent - a performance that reflects year-end bonuses, tax refunds and pension-fund contributions flowing into stocks.
Last year, the 30-stock average gained 2.4 percent in May to October. The Dow industrials then climbed 8.9 percent from November to last week.
"There is validity to the seasonal trend in any given year, but especially in an election year," said Hayes, chief investment strategist at Ned Davis in Venice, Florida, whose more than 1,000 clients include some of the biggest investors.
Data from S&P shows that in a president's four-year term, the second and third quarters before mid-term elections are the weakest periods for stocks. The S&P 500 has fallen 2 percent and 2.2 percent, respectively, on average since 1945.
The Dow average's low for years that featured mid-term elections was 22.2 percent below the previous year's high on average since 1913, Hirsch said.
This year, the trend may be especially meaningful "when we think about how low the popularity of the president and Congress have dropped," Hayes said. "That adds to the uncertainty."
President George W. Bush's approval rating in a Wall Street Journal-NBC News poll published last week slipped to 36 percent, his lowest ever. The rating for Congress was lower, 22 percent.
-
- Administrador Fórum
- Mensagens: 20972
- Registado: 25/10/2002 17:02
- Localização: Lisboa
2 mensagens
|Página 1 de 1