Como se combate o populismo? "Com eleições", responde Fukuyama

[Infoo]

só 2 pequenas achegas

- os tipos do Briefing.com dizem que o Banco Central Chinês não subia taxas faz 12 anos, mas eles subiram em Nov de 2004, de 0.27% de 5.31% para 5.58% (de nada serviu)

- hoje eles subiram taxa de ref. em 0.27% de 5.58% para 5.85%


os analistas dizem que foi totalmente surpreendente.... ehehe... surpreendente andava a ser o facto de eles andarem a "bombar" feitos loucos e o governo "coisa e tal, não pode ser assim" e eu não os via a fazer nada

[Ulisses Pereira]

Gosto de, diariamente, ler o Rev Shark, analista do Realmoney. Mas porque hoje toca na questão das commodities, aumentos de taxas na China e o "commodity day" na CNBC como indicador contrário achei muito interessante transcrevê-lo para aqui.

"Is China Chill the Turning Point?"

By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
4/27/2006 8:57 AM EDT
Click here for more stories by Rev Shark

"In China, we don't consider someone truly beautiful until we have known them for a long time, and we know what's underneath the skin."

-- Ziyi Zhang


"The question so many are struggling with right now is figuring out what's under the skin of this market. Is it high energy and commodity prices and continued interest rate pressures? Or is the steady strength in the economy offsetting these worries? For months now we have had a contingent of folks who are absolutely, positively convinced that the market is running on fumes and going to wake up one morning and find out that all those negatives it has been ignoring now matter. It hasn't happened yet and the pain in trying to time such an event has been widespread.

This morning the big news is that China is raising interest rates. The market reaction is negative but it would seem that it would have some positive aspects for the market. Energy and raw material demand in China has been one of the key drivers behind the strength in commodities. If China is raising rates and trying to slow growth, then we may seem some tempering in those pressures. That would also tend to be anti-inflationary and may push the FOMC to be a little less hawkish.

Fed head Ben Bernanke is testifying before Congress this morning and is likely to talk a little bit about this issue. I doubt he will provide us with any great clarity about whether we have one, two or more rate hikes to come but you can be sure his words will be careful parsed by those seeking clues. Even vague hints of hawkishness or lack thereof have the capacity to move the market.

It is particularly ironic that CNBC is declaring today "commodity day." How is that for a contrary indicator on the day that China attempts to slow demand and Exxon Mobil misses earnings estimates by 11 cents? It is particular entertaining how the media are likely to be focusing on the huge earnings out of XOM while the market will be selling the stock because of its "poor" report. If you believe in contrary indicators, they are falling in place today as far as oil and commodities.



What we need to consider is whether weak oil and commodities is a positive for the market. The market has had a tendency to trade in tandem with oil and commodity prices. High oil has not hurt the market at all over the past year or so. Will that direct correlation continue or will we finally see some money come out of the sector and move into less appreciated groups like financials, technology and biotech? It would make sense but logic has not been a good approach to this market lately.

We have a weak start to the day as we ponder the fallout from the move in China. Asian stocks are mostly higher as good earnings reports drive the action but Europe is weak on the China news and the weakness in oils. Once again we have a very tricky day with lots of crosscurrents to keep us busy. Good luck and go get 'em. "

(in www.realmoney.com)