Como se combate o populismo? "Com eleições", responde Fukuyama

[Jack]

Google's Schmidt sold stacks of shares last week

Over 30 transactions


By INQUIRER staff: Thursday 02 February 2006, 08:58

RECORDS OF insider trading for Google (tick: GOOG) show that CEO Eric Schmidt made over thirty sales of his stock options on the 26th of January.
As a demonstration of how strong the shares have been, the smallest transaction was a sale of 48 shares at $426.16 apiece, netting Mr Schmidt $20,455.

Under US regulations, insiders at a company are obliged to notify the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) when trades are made.

The largest sale of his options was for 6,790. At a price of $434.61, this resulted in a windfall of $2,951,015.

In total, Mr Schmidt netted well over $15 million. This figure is dwarfed by sales made by Lawrence Page on the 20th of January. Mr Page made two sales of 43,795 and 51,727 shares which yielded $18,052,632 and $22,166,198 respectively.

The price of Google shares fell by $30.88 to $401.78 yesterday. The price recovered as investors realised that things weren't as bad as they first thought. µ

[Elias]

Incognitus,

Sabes tão bem como eu que a máxima "o mercado tem sempre razão" não significa que exista qualquer racionalidade por parte do mercado mas sim que a sua força é demasiado grande para que possamos contrariá-lo. O boom de 2000 deu bons lucros a quem aproveitou o momento e depois deu grandes prejuízos a todos aqueles que acharam que podiam contrariar o mercado.

A Google tem vindo a atravessar uma espécie de reedição da bolha das TMT. Quem aproveitou a subida, embolsou. Neste momento a têndencia é down. Para quem segue a tendência ou, de uma forma geral, a AT, é isso que interessa.

Claro que do ponto de vista de um AF (não é o meu caso), a máxima em questão é uma aberração...

1 abraço,
Elias

[Incognitus]

Não me parece que o mercado tenha sempre razão, principalmente depois do ano 2000. Ou achas que o mercado tinha razão nas TMTs nessa altura também?

[Elias]

No Longo Prazo os fundamentais não estão do lado da Google simplesmente devido ao preço.

Por exemplo, a Google nunca terá a dimensão ou lucros da Vodafone, no entanto antes deste desastre a Google valia tanto no mercado como a Vodafone ...

O mercado parece ter uma opinião diferente... Se o mercado está disposto a pagar pela Google tanto como pela Vodafone é porque acha que a Google vale isso. E nós já sabemos que o mercado tem sempre razão

[leprechaun]

Aqui fica um gráfico da GOOG com uma abertura nos 377USD... fica mesmo na retracção feita em Novembro de 2005... uma boa oportunidade de entrar na GOOG a curto prazo? A ver vamos...

Obviamente eu não negoceio a GOOG, claro está... só se eles dividirem o preço por Cem... esse número me convém!

Mas estou de pleno acordo, Nuno Faustino, 374 é o número do destino! Nesse valor, confluem 2 importantes retracements de Fibonacci, pelo que essa deverá ser a zona ideal para reentrar na acção.

Quanto aos resultados, objectivamente são absolutamente espantosos... tão só! Se a acção está ou não demasiado valorizada... ai nisso não me meto, juro, afianço e prometo!

Mas para os intrépidos e com bolsos fundos... nada de tostões!... muitos milhões!...

...take this number, fellows:

374

Se ela se aguentar por aí... come on in... é comprá-la logo ali! Caso contrário, o próximo retracement significativo fica muito cá em baixo, de facto uns 50 dólares more or less...

Entretanto, já fiz o dia... é só risos e alegria!

Eu sei que me contento com pouco... afinal sou um gnomito do bosque, selvagem e indomável... nada amável!... mas vai indo tudo TÃO BEM que nem me apetece matar mais a tola... quero brincar e jogar à bola!

Vou visitar os pardais... 'tou cheio, não quero mais! Agora é a vez do JAS... ficar no verde, ó rapaz!

Afinal, eu e o Gastão somos uma só nação: se eu largar isto da mão, basta a imaginação p'ra saber com prontidão que vendi outro milhão... tudo corre de feição cá p'ra este toleimão...

...preguiçoso e malandrão...

Rui leprechaun

(...e sortudo até mais não!!! )

PS: And of course... o Dólar lá continua a sua marcha imparável, rumo aos 1.1985 (61,8% de Fibo). Antes ainda, uma breve paragem nos 50% (1.2050) talvez com uma ligeira reacção do Euro, a sub-onda iv lá do surf... while I'm winning SO much... that's enough!

E as minhas sucessivas ordens lá vão sendo executadas uma a uma... até não sobrar nenhuma!!!

GOOOD MORNING... DOLLAR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[vmerck]

a moda é GOOG e continuara a ser durante uns tempos mesmo na queda, com forte rebounds...mas como estavam incorporadas todas as boas noticias, uma má veio "panicar" muita gente acerca da verdadeira realidade....
Qt ao mercado cair isso ja é outra coisa.......não depende da GOOG...sobretudo na Europa...mas as tecnologicas estão a consolidar e com má figura mas não ha ainda sinal q vai quebrar..

[Elias]

penso que não !!!! Falhou as estimativas em cerca de 15%, eram de 1.76 e ficou nos 1.54.

Um abraço,

AC

Sim, falhou as estimativas, mas será que essas estimativas eram realistas?

Na Bloomberg estavam a comentar logo após a saída dos resultados que as expectativas para a Google são tão grandes que se os resultados forem um bocadinho abaixo do "perfeito", é logo considerado um desastre.

Quanto a mim, isto é uma reedição da bolha de 2000, agora focalizada na Google. N faz sentido que os futuros do Nasdaq caiam desta maneira por causa dos resultados de UMA empresa.

1 abr
Elias

[alce]

Falas no gap dos 300 ?
Tenho uns W puts, que no site do Citi estão a 0.22, mas hoje o MM ainda não apareceu no mercado.

Para já vou aguardar e tentar resistir na venda, já que nas recentes subidas do DAX deixei de ganhar bastante por vendas cedissimo de mais.
Abraço.

[vmerck]

q eu fico a rir-me .....
Da-me ideia q vamos ter um efeito GOOG em Fevereiro na minha carteira

[Incognitus]

No Longo Prazo os fundamentais não estão do lado da Google simplesmente devido ao preço.

Por exemplo, a Google nunca terá a dimensão ou lucros da Vodafone, no entanto antes deste desastre a Google valia tanto no mercado como a Vodafone ...

[nunofaustino]

ECN = Electronics Communication Networks

Aqui fica um grafico da GOOG com uma abertura nos 377USD... fica mesmo na retraccao feita em novembro de 2005... uma boa oportunidade de entrar na GOOG a curto prazo? A ver vamos...

Um abraco
Nuno

[Shenron]

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ecn?s=GOOG

Também dá. A informação é a mesma e poupas nos logins

[lazarus]

ja recuperou qq coisita.

o minimo q vi foi $367 e agora ta nos $376

estou a seguir o After no Big. Sinceramente não sei até que ponto é valida esta informação...

PS: O que ker dizer a sigla ECN???

[Shenron]

Pelo sim pelo não os futs do Nasdaq estão a cair 22 pontos (1.3% mais ou menos).
Acho que a Europa vai arrefecer um pouco, tb já não era sem tempo...

[Ertai]

A cotar nos $369, a descer quase 18%

Não vejo muito dos outros títulos a serem afectados (até a Yahoo já recuperou bastante desde o mínimo no After)

Vai ser dificil a Google corrigir no after e no pre-market toda esta descida, mas acho que isto vai afectar mais a empresa que o resto do mercado.
Afinal estamos a falar de uma subida continua de lucros, que apenas foram abaixo do esperado, a Google continua a fazer cada vez mais dinheiro...

Penso que nesta situação, parte da especulação e "bolha" de curto prazo na Google foi descontada/rebentou. Podemos abrir 4ªfeira com os investidores a tentarem negociar contra a gap (fading the gap).

A médio e longo prazo não vejo isto a afectar a Google uma vez que vai haver muitos a quererem comprar o título agora mais barato. O fenómeno Google continua, apesar de podermos entrar numa tendência descendente de curto prazo..

Se daqui a um mês se as coisas continuarem menos boas e a cotação formar alguma LT descendente, só aí é que as coisas poderão piorar para o médio prazo.. quanto ao Longo penso que os fundamentais estão do lado desta..

Cumps

[AC]

penso que não !!!! Falhou as estimativas em cerca de 15%, eram de 1.76 e ficou nos 1.54.

Um abraço,

AC

[Elias]

Google: Party over
Search engine leader's 4Q sales meet expectations but earnings miss targets; stock clobbered.
By Paul R. La Monica, CNNMoney.com senior writer
January 31, 2006: 4:50 PM EST



NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) - It had to end some time.

Before Google, the popular search engine, reported its fourth quarter results Tuesday, the company had crushed Wall Street's sales and earnings estimates in every quarter of its short history as a public firm. That streak is no more.

Google reported fourth-quarter sales, excluding traffic acquisition costs (TAC), the revenue that Google shares with advertising partners, of $1.29 billion. That was in line with expectations. But John Aiken, an analyst with Majestic Research, an independent research firm, said earlier Tuesday that Google would probably need to report sales of $1.37 billion to impress Wall Street.

And more alarming to investors, the company posted earnings per share, excluding the effect of stock options costs and research and development-related charges, of $1.54 a share, well below analysts' consensus estimates of $1.76 a share.

Shares of Google (Research), which rose 1.4 percent in regular trading on the Nasdaq Tuesday, plunged nearly 15 percent in after-hours trading following the release of the earnings. Based on that drop after-hours, the stock could see its market value plummet by nearly $18 billion at the opening bell on Wednesday morning.

It's important to note that Google didn't necessarily have a bad quarter, however. Sales nearly doubled from a year ago while net income surged 82 percent. Chuck Richard, a vice president and lead analyst with Outsell, Inc., a research and advisory firm for the information industry, said that investors should not interpret Google's earnings miss to mean that the online advertising market is cooling.

"The outlook for Google is still strong. The miss is not significant," Richard said.

As such, Google chief executive officer Eric Schmidt expressed optimism about the company's results.

During a conference call with analysts, he said that the company was very pleased with the company's results and noted that Google sees tremendous opportunity for growth going forward, particularly in international markets. Google said that revenues from outside the U.S. accounted for about 39 percent of total sales for all of 2005.

Schmidt also stressed that Google would continue to spend heavily on research and development in order to remain an innovative company. "We invest with a long-term view of the business. We are going to make some really big bets," he said.

But since the stock is up more than 400 percent since the company went public in August 2004, Google clearly needed to beat the Street again to justify its lofty price.

Google's earnings miss is the latest in a string of bad news for the company.

The stock has fallen nearly 7.5 percent during the past two weeks due to concerns about how strong Google's numbers would be in the wake of similarly disappointing results from rival Yahoo! (Research), a couple of analyst downgrades to "sell" citing the stock's valuation and controversy surrounding the company's refusal to share search results with the U.S. government regarding a court case about legislation meant to protect children from online pornography as well as Google's decision to allow the Chinese government to censor search results on a Google site in China.

And since Google does not provide earnings guidance, it seems likely that analysts will now lower their first quarter and full-year 2006 forecasts. That could put further pressure on the stock. Analysts currently expect Google to report sales of $1.46 billion and earnings per share of $2 for the first quarter and revenue of $6.56 billion and a profit of $8.79 a share for all of 2006.

[francan]

E a queda continua, isto será só pânico ou representará algo mais sério?

[Midas]

Quer-me parecer que está a ser mt penalizada e irá recuperar pelo menos parte das quedas no after...

[nunofaustino]

ja esta a negociar outra vez e a perder quase 15% para os 372USD...

Um abraco
nuno

[nunofaustino]

neste momento o spread entre o bid e o ask eh demasiado gd para saber a qto eh que a Goog vai abrir amanha... mas pelo que vi, os resultados foram bastante abaixo das previsoes e por isso eh provavel que caia bastante na abertura...

Um abraco
Nuno

[Ertai]

Google revela resultados..

Apesar de ter sido interrompida na negociação fora de horas, penso que chegou a cotar $406.5, ou seja, -8% relativamente ao fecho de hoje.

Google Announces Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2005 Results

MOUNTAIN VIEW, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Jan. 31, 2006--Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) today announced financial results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2005.

"We are very pleased with our results for the fourth quarter as we achieved excellent performance across our businesses," said Eric Schmidt, CEO of Google. "We generated significant revenue growth in our core search and advertising business, driven by continued strength in traffic and monetization. We will continue to invest significantly as we develop innovative new products and as we extend our core technologies to new user access points and to different channels."

Q4 Financial Summary

Google reported revenues of $1.919 billion for the quarter ended December 31, 2005, an increase of 86% compared to the fourth quarter of 2004 and an increase of 22% compared to the third quarter of 2005. Google reports its revenues, consistent with GAAP, on a gross basis without deducting traffic acquisition costs, or TAC. In the fourth quarter, TAC totaled $629 million, or 33% percent of advertising revenues.

Google reports operating income, net income and earnings per share (EPS) on a GAAP and non-GAAP basis. The non-GAAP measures are described below and reconciled to the corresponding GAAP measure in the section below titled "About non-GAAP financial measures."

-- GAAP operating income for the fourth quarter was $570 million,
or 29.7% of revenues. This compares to GAAP operating income
of $529 million, or 33.5% of revenues, in the third quarter.
Non-GAAP operating income in the fourth quarter was $718
million, or 37.4% of revenues. This compares to non-GAAP
operating income of $596 million, or 37.8% of revenues, in the
third quarter.

-- GAAP net income for the fourth quarter was $372 million as
compared to $381 million in the third quarter. Non-GAAP net
income was $469 million, compared to $437 million in the third
quarter.

-- GAAP EPS for the fourth quarter was $1.22 on 304 million
diluted shares outstanding, compared to $1.32 for the third
quarter, on 290 million diluted shares outstanding. Non-GAAP
EPS was $1.54, compared to $1.51 in the third quarter.

-- Our effective tax rate for the fourth quarter increased to
41.8% this quarter, and to 31.6% for the year, above our
previously announced expectation of approximately 30% for the
year. Primarily because the proportion of total expenses
allocated to our international operations was greater than we
anticipated, more of our profits were taxed at a higher
domestic tax rate; this resulted in a greater effective tax
rate compared to our expectations. We expect our effective tax
rate for 2006 to be approximately 30%.

-- Non-GAAP operating income, non-GAAP net income, and non-GAAP
EPS are computed net of certain material items: stock-based
compensation (SBC), in-process research and development
(IPR&D) charges, and also Google's contribution to the Google
Foundation of $90 million, which the company made in the
fourth quarter of 2005. In the fourth quarter, the charge
related to stock-based compensation was $58 million as
compared to $46 million in the third quarter. IPR&D charges
were immaterial in the fourth quarter of 2005, compared to $21
million in the third quarter. Tax benefits related to
stock-based compensation charges and the contribution to the
Google Foundation have been excluded from non-GAAP net income
and non-GAAP EPS. The tax benefit related to SBC was $14
million in the fourth quarter and $11 million in the third
quarter, and the tax benefit related to the contribution to
the Google Foundation in the fourth quarter was $37 million.
Google does not expect to make further donations to the Google
Foundation for the foreseeable future. Reconciliations of
non-GAAP measures to GAAP operating income, net income, and
EPS are included at the end of this release.

Q4 Financial Highlights

Revenues -- Google reported revenues of $1.919 billion for the quarter ended December 31, 2005, representing an 86% increase over fourth quarter 2004 revenues of $1.032 billion, and a 22% increase over third quarter 2005 revenues of $1.578 billion. Growth over the third quarter was driven by expected seasonal strength in both traffic and monetization. Google reports its revenues, consistent with GAAP, on a gross basis without deducting traffic acquisition costs, or TAC.

Google Sites Revenues -- Google-owned sites generated revenues of $1.098 billion, or 57% of total revenues. This represents a 24% increase over the third quarter revenues of $885 million.

Google Network Revenues -- Google's partner sites generated revenues, through AdSense programs, of $799 million, or 42% of total revenues. This is an 18% increase over network revenues of $675 million generated in the third quarter.

International Revenues -- Revenues from outside of the United States contributed 38% of total revenues, compared to 39% in the third quarter of 2005 and 35% in the fourth quarter of 2004. International revenues reflected the unfavorable impact caused by the appreciation of the U.S. dollar and stronger seasonal trends in the U.S. relative to the international business. Had foreign exchange rates remained constant from the third quarter through the fourth quarter, our revenues would have been $12 million, or 0.6%, higher. Had foreign exchange rates remained constant from 2004 through 2005, our revenues would have been $40 million, or 2.1%, higher.

TAC -- Traffic Acquisition Costs, the portion of revenues shared with Google's partners, increased to $629 million in the fourth quarter. This compares to TAC of $530 million in the third quarter. TAC as a percentage of advertising revenues decreased to 33.2% in the fourth quarter from 34.0% in the third quarter, reflecting primarily the continued shift in our revenue mix from Google network revenue to Google-owned site revenue.

Operating Income -- GAAP operating income in the fourth quarter was $570 million, or 29.7% of revenues. This compares to GAAP operating income of $529 million, or 33.5% of revenues, in the third quarter. GAAP operating income in the fourth quarter includes a contribution of $90 million to the Google Foundation. Non-GAAP operating income in the fourth quarter was $718 million, or 37.4% of revenues. This compares to non-GAAP operating income of $596 million, or 37.8% of revenues, in the third quarter. The favorable shift in the mix of revenues to a higher proportion of revenues from Google-owned sites was offset by significant investments in all areas of the business.

Stock-Based Compensation -- In the fourth quarter, the charge related to stock-based compensation was $58 million as compared to $46 million in the third quarter. The increase in stock-based compensation was primarily related to Google stock units issued in 2005.

Stock-based compensation in 2006 will be significantly greater than it was in 2005 as a result of our adoption of SFAS 123R effective January 1, 2006. We currently anticipate that dilution related to all equity grants to employees will be approximately 1% to 1.5% per year.

Net Income -- GAAP net income for the fourth quarter was $372 million as compared to $381 million in the third quarter. Non-GAAP net income was $469 million, compared to $437 million in the third quarter. GAAP EPS for the fourth quarter was $1.22 on 304 million diluted shares outstanding, compared to $1.32 for the third quarter, on 290 million diluted shares outstanding. Non-GAAP EPS was $1.54, compared to $1.51 in the third quarter.

Income Taxes -- Our effective tax rate for the fourth quarter increased to 41.8% this quarter, and to 31.6% for the year, above our previously announced expectation of approximately 30% for the year. Because the proportion of total expenses allocated to our international operations was greater than we anticipated, more of our profits were taxed at a higher domestic tax rate; this resulted in a greater effective tax rate compared to our expectations. We expect our effective tax rate for 2006 to be approximately 30%.

Cash Flow and Capital Expenditures -- Net cash provided by operating activities for the fourth quarter totaled $658 million as compared to $647 million for the third quarter. Free cash flow, an alternative non-GAAP measure of liquidity, is defined as net cash provided by operating activities less capital expenditures. In the fourth quarter we generated $413 million in free cash flow. Capital expenditures in the quarter were $245 million as compared to $293 million in the third quarter, and primarily reflect purchases of production servers and networking equipment and acquisitions of additional office space.

We will continue to invest significantly in capital expenditures in 2006. We expect the majority of the investment to be focused on IT infrastructure including servers, networking equipment, and data centers, as well as real estate and campus facilities.

Adjusted EBITDA -- Adjusted EBITDA is another non-GAAP measure of liquidity and is defined as income before interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization, SBC, IPR&D, and the contribution to the Google Foundation. Adjusted EBITDA increased to approximately $814 million in the fourth quarter from $672 million in the third quarter, or 43% of revenues for both periods.

Reconciliations of free cash flow and adjusted EBITDA to net cash provided by operating activities, the GAAP measure of liquidity, are included at the end of this release.

Fiscal Year 2005 Financial Highlights

Revenue -- For the year ended December 31, 2005, Google reported total revenues of $6.139 billion, an increase of 92.5% over revenues of $3.189 billion in 2004. Revenue growth was attributable to both Google sites and Google network sites.

Google Sites Revenues -- Revenue from Google sites increased 112.5% in 2005 to $3.377 billion as traffic to Google sites continued to grow and monetization improved.

Google Network Revenues -- Revenue from the Google network increased 72.9% in 2005 to $2.688 billion due primarily to increased contribution from existing partners as well as the addition of many new partners to the AdSense for Search and AdSense for Content programs.

International Revenues -- Revenues from outside of the United States contributed 39% to total revenues for the year compared to 34% in 2004.

Operating Income -- GAAP operating income in 2005 was $2.017 billion, compared to $640 million in 2004.

Net Income -- GAAP net income for 2005 increased to $1.465 billion, from $399 million in 2004.

Cash Flow and Capital Expenditures -- Net cash provided by operating activities was $2.459 billion, compared to $977 million in 2004. Capital expenditures in 2005 were $838 million, an increase of 163% from $319 million in 2004. Free cash flow was $1.621 billion, an increase from $658 million in 2004.

Adjusted EBITDA -- Adjusted EBITDA increased to $2.624 billion in 2005 from $1.280 billion in 2004.

Cash -- As of December 31, 2005, Google had cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities of $8.0 billion.

On a worldwide basis, Google employed 5,680 full time employees as of December 31, 2005, up from 4,989 as of September 30, 2005 and 3,021 as of December 31, 2004.