Como se combate o populismo? "Com eleições", responde Fukuyama

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luka, mesmo com estas notícias ainda consideras uma boa oportunidade de entrada para o curto prazo? Os ânimos estão um bocado misturados.

5:00pm 11/17/05
Autodesk shares fall in evening on outlook (ADSK) By Michael Paige
LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) -- Autodesk Inc.'s stock (ADSK) fell Thursday evening as investors expressed disappointment with the company's financial outlook for next fiscal year. In recent dealings, the stock sank 9.1% from the regular close to stand at $42.81. Shares finished the regular session higher by 3.1% at $47.10. The San Rafael, Calif.-based design-software company predicted fiscal 2007 revenue would rise 10% to 12% compared to its expectations for the current fiscal year for revenue of $1.51 billion to $1.52 billion. The company expects to post a net profit of $1.16 to $1.20 a share, or $1.41 to $1.45 a share excluding the impact of stock-option expenses. On average, analysts were looking for 2007 earnings of $1.45 a share on revenue of $1.73 billion, according to a Thomson First Call survey.

Autodesk profit, revenue surge
But forecast overshadows to send shares sinking
By Michael Paige, MarketWatch
Last Update: 7:24 PM ET Nov. 17, 2005


LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) - Autodesk Inc.'s stock fell sharply Thursday evening as its financial outlook disappointed bullish investors and overshadowed a 28% rise in quarterly profit and sharply higher revenue thanks to strong demand across its product lines.



The design software company's stock fell sharply following the results and outlook, recently dropping 8.5% compared to the normal close to stand at $43.10. Shares closed the regular trading day higher by 3.1% at $47.10.

Commenting on disappointment with the company's outlook, Chairman Carol Bartz said in an interview: "Basically we had a great quarter. We raised guidance for Q4 and for next year and I think people just wanted a bigger number and we're not willing to give them that right now."

The company is facing the negative impact of foreign exchange rates, which dampened its revenue outlook by three percentage points, but an upbeat Bartz emphasized that "demand [for its products] is not a problem."

"Double-digit growth in tech is not conservative -- it's a good number," she said. "The fact of the matter is the dollar hasn't stopped moving around yet."

"We're in a comfortable place right now and we'll see what we do in February at the [next earnings] call."

Autodesk said its third-quarter profit jumped to $94.5 million, or 38 cents a share, from $74.1 million, or 30 cents a share, a year ago. Excluding an $18 million tax benefit, the San Rafael, Calif.-based company would have earned $77 million, or 31 cents a share.

Revenue for the three-month period ended Oct. 31 jumped 26% to $378.3 million from $300.2 million. License revenue -- a key measure of new business strength -- rose 20% to $304.4 million from $254.5 million. Maintenance revenue surged 62% to $73.9 million from $45.7 million.

The results outpaced the average of analysts' expectations.

Wall Street analysts, on average, had expected the company behind the AutoCAD software program widely used by architects and engineers for designing things like buildings and bridges to earn 30 cents a share on revenue of $377.3 million, according to a Thomson First Call survey.

"Solid execution drove another outstanding performance for Autodesk," Bartz said. "Revenues and profitability increased significantly over last year, driven by strong demand for our products across all divisions and all markets."

Autodesk benefited in the just-reported period from strong growth in new seats and subscriptions, increasing penetration of its vertical and three-dimensional design software. The company also continued to improve its margins.

Very confident about the future

Bartz added that she's "very confident about the future" and lifted the company's outlook for the fourth quarter and fiscal 2007 despite the expected negative currency impact.



Looking ahead, Autodesk predicted a net profit for the current fourth quarter of 34 cents to 36 cents a share on revenue of $405 million to $415 million. For the whole fiscal year that ends Jan. 31, the company expects to earn $1.32 to $1.34 a share -- or $1.24 to $1.26 a share excluding a tax benefit -- on revenue ranging from $1.51 billion to $1.52 billion.

Analysts' current estimates, on average, put the company's fourth-quarter profit at 36 cents a share on revenue of $411.4 million. For the year, estimates call for earnings of $1.25 a share on revenue of $1.52 billion.

The company expects to earn 25 cents to 27 cents a share on revenue of between $400 million and $410 million for the first quarter. Without stock-option expenses, the company put its profit at 31 cents to 33 cents a share. That compares to analysts' estimates calling for earnings of 34 cents a share on revenue of $413.1.

For all of next year, the company pegged its profit at $1.16 to $1.20 a share, or $1.41 to $1.45 per share before stock-based compensation charges. Autodesk forecast its revenue would rise 10% to 12% compared to its expectations for fiscal 2006.

The company said that on a constant currency basis its expected revenue would growth would have been 13% to 15%.

Analysts had been looking for a profit of $1.45 a share for next fiscal year on revenue of $1.73 billion, implying 14% growth based on their current average of estimate for 2006.


Michael Paige is a reporter for MarketWatch in Los Angeles.

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