Anuncio hoje do novo presidente da FED?
12 mensagens
|Página 1 de 1
O Presidente dos EUA, George W. Bush, nomeou, no passado dia 24 de Outubro de 2005, o seu principal Assessor Económico, Ben S. Bernanke, para suceder a Alan Greenspan, na presidência do Sistema da Reserva Federal norte-americana (FED).
Com um pouco de história...
Porque quem vai, termina um percurso, uma carreira, um caminho, uma história. Porque quem vai, dá lugar a uma nova era, um novo começo, uma nova aventura.
Porque quem vai, merece ser revisto e ver o seu passado escrito, começaremos por falar do Senhor Alan Greenspan.
Aquando do anúncio da nomeação de Bernanke, o Presidente Bush referiu-se a Greenspan como "uma lenda", que conseguiu verdadeiramente conduzir os Estados Unidos, perante obstáculos, dificuldades e momentos de crise.
Presidente da Fed desde 1987 (durante cinco mandatos e nomeado por quatro presidentes dos EUA), Greenspan terminará a 31 de Janeiro de 2006, o seu último mandato, este agora não renovável.
Actualmente com 79 anos, e quando sucedeu a Paul Volcker em 1987, por nomeação do Presidente Reagan, Greenspan não enfrentou uma recepção muito calorosa. Muita gente duvidou das suas capacidades para assumir o "cargo", mas o que é facto é que durante os últimos 18 anos, este Homem desempenhou, com firmeza e dedicação, o seu papel de Presidente da FED.
Durante todo o seu mandato, Greenspan exerceu uma grande influência sobre os mercados financeiros e a crise de Outubro de 87 foi o seu primeiro "teste", de onde saiu projectado "heroicamente" para as suas indubitáveis capacidades.
No dia seguinte à conhecida "Black Monday" (19 de Outubro de 87), Greenspan tornou possível gerar liquidez nos mercados, evitando desta forma, o pior cenário considerado. O mercado recuperou no momento em que mais precisou!
Enfrentou ainda vários períodos conturbados dos mercados financeiros, como sendo a ruptura financeira no México, o fatídico 11 de Setembro de 2001 ou a bolha especulativa das dot-coms (a tal da exuberância irracional, como ficou designada). Atravessou todos estes momentos, com o carisma e reputação inabalável, que o cargo de "Chairman" da maior potência mundial, assim obriga. As suas palavras, muitas vezes enigmáticas, influenciaram o mundo inteiro. Tentar decifrar os seus conceitos e o significado das suas palavras, era uma missão difícil, fossem quem fossem os receptores das mesmas.
Greenspan sempre disse o que quis, como quis e quando quis. Considerado por muitos como o maior banqueiro central de todos os tempos, o tema da sua sucessão foi muito acompanhado pelos investidores de todo o mundo financeiro.
Ben Bernanke, o eleito de George W. Bush, é um macro-economista Americano, nascido em Augusta, no Estado da Geórgia, em 13 de Dezembro de 1953.
Licenciou-se em Economia, na Universidade de Harvard, em 1975 e recebeu o seu doutoramento pelo Instituto de Tecnologia de Massachusetts, em 1979. Foi professor de Economia na Universidade de Princeton e Presidente do Departamento de Economia até 2002.
Em Julho de 2005, abandonou as suas funções de Governador para se tornar o principal Assessor económico do Presidente Bush.
Bernanke é caracterizado como um homem sério, muito disciplinado e bastante ponderado nas palavras.
Macro-economista muito respeitado, espera-se que Bernanke traga para a FED, uma liderança intelectual, com poder e precisão de comunicação verbal, e acima de tudo, um prodigioso trabalho de ética.
Em discurso directo, Bernanke referiu que "A minha primeira prioridade será manter a continuidade das políticas e estratégias estabelecidas durante os anos de Greenspan. Se a decisão for confirmada pelo Senado, farei tudo o que estiver ao meu alcance, sempre com a colaboração dos meus colegas da FED, para garantir a continuidade da prosperidade e estabilidade da Economia Americana."
No entanto, permanece um tema onde os dois Homens diferem de opinião. Deverá a FED ajustar alvos para a inflação? Bernanke pensa que sim, Greenspan considera que não. Nada que assuste! Pois ambos partilham uma filosofia de pensamento bastante similar, inclusivé denotada pelos analistas de mercado, que sempre consideraram os discursos de Bernanke como que conduzidos à luz da linha de pensamento de Greenspan.
Bush referiu que Ben Bernanke "é o homem certo para proceder com os registos que Alan Greenspan estabeleceu".
Mas, esquecendo o passado de Bernanke e as suas credenciais académicas inatacáveis, quais serão as grandes dificuldades que terá no futuro? Fazer esquecer Greenspan, considerado por muitos como o maior banqueiro central de todos os tempos, será certamente o seu maior desafio.
A substituição de um mito será inevitavelmente o maior teste às capacidades de um Homem que, por força das circunstâncias, terá que ser um líder transformado em "lenda".
Despedimo-nos do grandioso trabalho de Greenspan com receios, medos e até alguma insegurança, mas sendo a vida feita de mudanças, progressões, com caminhos não traçados, mas que se vão traçando, acolhemos Mr. Ben Bernanke numa era que para todos será nova, e dizemos: Seja bem-vindo!
"O desprezo pelo dinheiro é frequente, sobretudo naqueles que não o possuem"
Fonte: "La Philosophie de G. C."
Autor: Courteline , Georges
Site porreiro para jogar (carregar em Arcade) : www.gamespt.net
Fonte: "La Philosophie de G. C."
Autor: Courteline , Georges
Site porreiro para jogar (carregar em Arcade) : www.gamespt.net
-
- Mensagens: 2337
- Registado: 31/10/2004 1:09
- Localização: gemunda
Adeus "Maestro"
Para quem estiver interessado na cronologia do FED esta aqui a publicação emitida hoje pelos Warrants Millennium bcp sobre o assunto (a configuração não deve estar correcta mas peçam a newsletter para Warrants@millenniumbcp.pt):
"Boa tarde,
Se o senado aprovar, o actual chefe da equipa de conselheiros económicos do Presidente George W. Bush, Ben Bernanke, vai suceder Alan Greenspan a partir de 1 de Fevereiro de 2006, como presidente da Reserva Federal norte-americana.
O "Maestro", alcunha como era conhecido Alan Greenspan, pela habilidade que tinha de conduzir a economia americana e as suas taxas de juro, esteve à frente da FED 18 anos (tomando posse em Agosto de 87). Feito esse só ultrapassado por William McChesney Martin, nomeado na altura pelo presidente dos EUA, Harry S. Truman, exercendo funções até à presidência Nixon, durante cerca de 19 anos.
Todo o seu valor foi reconhecido durante o boom dos anos 90 e pela sua habilidade de acalmar o mercado durante cenários de recessão, actos terroristas e guerra. Em jeito de graça, deixamos um quadro com a cronologia dos Presidentes da FED, o tempo do legado de cada um, o valor a que cotava o DOW durante a administração de cada presidente, CPI e taxas de juro:
Presidente Datas Posse Dow Inicio Dow Final Taxas Inicio Taxas Final
Prime Rates Prime rates
Marriner Eccles 15-11-1934 13 anos, 142 175 ND ND
31-01-1948 2 meses
William 02-04-1951 18 anos, 258 736 3% 8,50%
McChesney Martin 31-01-1970 9 meses
Arthur Burns 01-02-1970 7 anos, 778 770 5,88% 7,93%
31-01-1978 11 meses
Paul Volcker 06-08-1979 8 anos 933 2,663 11,12% 8,25%
11-08-1987
Alan Greenspan 11-08-1987 18 anos, 2,032 9,969 9,84% 6,75%
31-01-2006 5 meses
Fonte: US Federal Reserve
Mas o que esperar de Bernanke?
A maioria dos analistas considera que o currículo académico e as suas últimas posições tanto enquanto membro do Comité da Política Monetária da Reserva Federal, como actualmente no Conselho de Aconselhamento económico da Casa Branca, sugerem que não deverá ter problemas ao enfrentar o senado norte-americano.
O seu historial foi caracterizado como um moderador, considerando que a FED devia manter a inflação baixa e estável, muito em linha com o que o Banco Central Europeu preconiza, destacando-se neste aspecto, de Alan Greenspan. Segundo alguns dos seus discursos mais recentes, políticas monetárias que defendam a continuidade de uma evolução branda da inflação e a manutenção das pressões inflacionistas contidas irão contribuir positivamente no longo prazo para o crescimento económico e para a produtividade, assegurando capacidade e flexibilidade à Reserva Federal para lidar e responder a eventuais crises económicas.
Só nos resta dizer adeus Mr. Greenspan e seja bem vindo Mr. Bernanke.
Boa semana e bons negócios, deixamos em anexo a nossa habitual análise técnica."
"Boa tarde,
Se o senado aprovar, o actual chefe da equipa de conselheiros económicos do Presidente George W. Bush, Ben Bernanke, vai suceder Alan Greenspan a partir de 1 de Fevereiro de 2006, como presidente da Reserva Federal norte-americana.
O "Maestro", alcunha como era conhecido Alan Greenspan, pela habilidade que tinha de conduzir a economia americana e as suas taxas de juro, esteve à frente da FED 18 anos (tomando posse em Agosto de 87). Feito esse só ultrapassado por William McChesney Martin, nomeado na altura pelo presidente dos EUA, Harry S. Truman, exercendo funções até à presidência Nixon, durante cerca de 19 anos.
Todo o seu valor foi reconhecido durante o boom dos anos 90 e pela sua habilidade de acalmar o mercado durante cenários de recessão, actos terroristas e guerra. Em jeito de graça, deixamos um quadro com a cronologia dos Presidentes da FED, o tempo do legado de cada um, o valor a que cotava o DOW durante a administração de cada presidente, CPI e taxas de juro:
Presidente Datas Posse Dow Inicio Dow Final Taxas Inicio Taxas Final
Prime Rates Prime rates
Marriner Eccles 15-11-1934 13 anos, 142 175 ND ND
31-01-1948 2 meses
William 02-04-1951 18 anos, 258 736 3% 8,50%
McChesney Martin 31-01-1970 9 meses
Arthur Burns 01-02-1970 7 anos, 778 770 5,88% 7,93%
31-01-1978 11 meses
Paul Volcker 06-08-1979 8 anos 933 2,663 11,12% 8,25%
11-08-1987
Alan Greenspan 11-08-1987 18 anos, 2,032 9,969 9,84% 6,75%
31-01-2006 5 meses
Fonte: US Federal Reserve
Mas o que esperar de Bernanke?
A maioria dos analistas considera que o currículo académico e as suas últimas posições tanto enquanto membro do Comité da Política Monetária da Reserva Federal, como actualmente no Conselho de Aconselhamento económico da Casa Branca, sugerem que não deverá ter problemas ao enfrentar o senado norte-americano.
O seu historial foi caracterizado como um moderador, considerando que a FED devia manter a inflação baixa e estável, muito em linha com o que o Banco Central Europeu preconiza, destacando-se neste aspecto, de Alan Greenspan. Segundo alguns dos seus discursos mais recentes, políticas monetárias que defendam a continuidade de uma evolução branda da inflação e a manutenção das pressões inflacionistas contidas irão contribuir positivamente no longo prazo para o crescimento económico e para a produtividade, assegurando capacidade e flexibilidade à Reserva Federal para lidar e responder a eventuais crises económicas.
Só nos resta dizer adeus Mr. Greenspan e seja bem vindo Mr. Bernanke.
Boa semana e bons negócios, deixamos em anexo a nossa habitual análise técnica."
"Quem comprou, comprou. Quem não comprou, comprasse."
-
- Mensagens: 910
- Registado: 5/11/2002 11:12
- Localização: Aveiro
``Bernanke is bearish for the U.S. dollar because he is likely to be perceived as more dovish on interest rates,'' said Woo. ``The market may sell some dollars until he's officially appointed.''
The dollar weakened to $1.1986 per euro from $1.1953 on Oct. 21 at 5 p.m. in New York, according to electronic foreign- exchange dealing system EBS. The U.S. currency dropped to 115.45 yen from 115.90.
A Fed governor from August 2002 to June 2005, Bernanke during his first year raised concern in speeches about the possibility of deflation, or broad price declines that hurt economic growth. The Fed cut its target for the overnight lending rate between banks to a 45-year low of 1 percent in June 2003 to help avoid that possibility.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... ency_rates
The dollar weakened to $1.1986 per euro from $1.1953 on Oct. 21 at 5 p.m. in New York, according to electronic foreign- exchange dealing system EBS. The U.S. currency dropped to 115.45 yen from 115.90.
A Fed governor from August 2002 to June 2005, Bernanke during his first year raised concern in speeches about the possibility of deflation, or broad price declines that hurt economic growth. The Fed cut its target for the overnight lending rate between banks to a 45-year low of 1 percent in June 2003 to help avoid that possibility.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... ency_rates
Só receberás aquilo que és ou no que verdadeiramente te tornares.
-
- Mensagens: 1012
- Registado: 5/6/2004 15:17
- Localização: Capital do outrora Império
Bernanke Picked by Bush to Succeed Greenspan at Fed (Update5) Listen
Oct. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Ben S. Bernanke, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers and a former Federal Reserve governor, was named by President George W. Bush to succeed Alan Greenspan as Fed chairman.
``Ben Bernanke is the right man to build on the record Alan Greenspan has established,'' Bush said today as the men stood by his side in the Oval Office. The economist ``commands deep respect in the global financial community.''
Bernanke, 51, said his first task will be to ensure continuity at the Fed as he replaces the man Bush today called a ``legend.'' The former Princeton economics professor, who was on the Fed from 2002 until June, may champion the Fed's move toward greater openness, possibly including a numeric inflation target, and keep the Fed raising rates to counter rising prices, economists said. He also can help shape the Fed by influencing Bush's picks for two other open Fed governor positions.
``He will put an emphasis on a more predictable format for Federal Reserve monetary policy,'' said William Ford, former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
Bernanke's first challenges include establishing credibility with investors and Congress and showing that he, like Greenspan, has what it takes to keep the economy on keel during crises. Greenspan, who is 79 and will leave the Fed when his term as governor expires Jan. 31, gave Bernanke his seal of approval.
``The president has made a distinguished appointment in Ben Bernanke,'' Greenspan said today. ``Ben comes with superb academic credentials and important insights into the ways our economy functions.''
Bush's Decision
Bush's decision to tap Bernanke for the CEA in June was widely seen as grooming him to replace Greenspan. Bernanke led surveys as both a qualified and likely choice for successor.
``He's got the right pedigree,'' Ethan Harris, chief U.S. economist for Lehman Brothers Inc. in New York, said of Bernanke, a former economics and policy professor at Princeton University. That said, ``you're replacing an icon with a mere mortal, and he's going to have to prove himself in the job.''
Greenspan maneuvered the economy through two stock-market collapses, in 1987 and 2000, and two recessions in 1990-91 and in 2001. The expansion between those economic slumps was the longest in U.S. history.
``If I am confirmed to this position, my first priority will be to maintain continuity with the policies and policy strategies established during the Greenspan years,'' Bernanke said today.
Confirmation Process
The Fed has raised interest rates 11 times since June 2004, to 3.75 percent, to head off inflation and most economists in a Bloomberg News monthly survey predict the rate will reach 4.5 percent by the end of the first quarter.
With the appointment of Bernanke and two other Fed governors, Bush will become the first president since Ronald Reagan to have appointed or reappointed all seven board members.
Greenspan's successor is subject to Senate confirmation. Banking Committee Chairman Richard Shelby, an Alabama Republican, said today he expects Bernanke to be ``well-received by all members of our committee.'' A spokesman for the committee said he expects a hearing before Congress adjourns this year.
Bernanke joined the Fed as a governor in 2002 and over almost three years helped re-charge the research agenda by reaching out to junior staff economists in informal cafeteria seminars and through speeches on communication policies and alternative steps the Fed could use to ward off deflation.
What Bernanke Must Do
As chairman of the Fed, which sets interest rate policy, Bernanke must move quickly to establish credibility separate and apart from Greenspan. None of his predecessors faced markets that move as quickly on instant information as they do today.
Bernanke must convince bond markets that he is an inflation fighter. Even as the Fed has lifted the benchmark lending rate 11 times over the past 15 months off the lowest levels in 46 years, inflation, by every measure, has moved higher.
U.S. 10-year Treasury notes fell after today's nomination. The yield on the benchmark 10-year note rose 7 basis points, or 0.07 percentage point, to 4.45 percent at 4:20 p.m. in New York.
``The selloff was not an expression of dissatisfaction with the choice, but merely a reflection of the uncertainty going forward,'' said Bill Gross, chief investment officer at Pacific Investment Management Co. in Newport Beach, California. ``Although they might be satisfied with the choice, as am I, there's more uncertainty with Bernanke than there was with Greenspan, so risk premiums and higher yields is probably the result today.''
The Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index rose 19.8, or 1.7 percent.
Inflation Targeting
Bernanke is an advocate of a strategy called inflation targeting where a central bank specifies a numerical goal for prices. The Federal Open Market Committee debated the strategy as early as February, and decided to defer the discussion.
Economists said Bernanke is unlikely to push the strategy immediately, in part because both Governors Roger Ferguson Jr. and Donald Kohn are opposed.
``This is obviously an issue on which knowledgeable and reasonable people can disagree,'' former Fed Governor Susan Phillips said in an interview. ``I don't think he will be in a position to move overnight. I think he has a strong belief this is a good addition to monetary policy and he'll try to persuade the committee that is the case.''
Handling Congress
Bernanke once named his personal range for desirable inflation. ``An inflation target in the range of 1 to 2 percent per annum for the core personal consumption expenditure'' price index ``might be a good initial choice,'' he said during his confirmation hearing as a governor on July 18, 2002. By that measure, inflation would already be at the top of his target for the 12 months ended in August.
As a Fed chairman, one of his tests will be gaining credibility on Capitol Hill. For much of the past decade, Greenspan received praise during his appearances, and congressmen rarely challenged the Fed's policies. Since he was sworn in at the CEA on June 21, Bernanke has testified twice before Congress and given five speeches on non-controversial subjects.
Greenspan ``has a great deal of credibility with financial markets at home and abroad, and also a great deal of credibility on Capitol Hill,'' said Michael Mussa, senior economist at the Institute for International Economics. ``A new Fed chairman will not instantaneously inherit the mantle.''
Bernanke has also shown he's agile under questioning from members of Congress, particularly on issues that Democrats support, such as a higher minimum wage.
Fed's Dual Mandate
Asked in May by Maryland Senator Paul Sarbanes, a Democrat, whether he would take back what he wrote in a 1991 textbook that increasing the minimum wage would have only minor economic drawbacks, Bernanke replied: ``No, senator, I've just become more uncertain.''
The Fed is unusual among the world's central banks in that it has two mandates: stable prices as well as sustained growth that will result in low unemployment. Bernanke will have to at least express concern about jobs and growth in his nomination hearing, and, if confirmed, during his semi-annual testimony in February.
Delivering on the expansion will be tricky, however.
Economists expect U.S. growth to slow, even as inflation expectations rise in the aftermath of a 51 percent increase in retail gasoline prices this year. Fed officials have made it clear they intend to keep leaning against inflation by pushing up the federal funds rate, even after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita hurt third-quarter growth prospects.
Selection Process
The president called Bernanke from Air Force One on Oct. 21 to discuss the nomination and actually offered him the post in the Oval Office at about 7:15 a.m. today, spokesman Scott McClellan said in an e-mailed statement.
The search began in late April, McClellan said, adding that Bush's nominating committee consulted academics, Wall Street executives, business leaders and lawmakers from both parties in Congress. He said the initial list had more than 20 names and that Bush met with the search committee several times and sought advice from Greenspan on the qualifications needed.
The nominating committee included Vice President Dick Cheney; Chief of Staff Andy Card; National Economic Adviser Al Hubbard; Liza Wright, an aide for presidential personnel; and I. Lewis ``Scooter'' Libby, Cheney's chief of staff.
Bernanke graduated summa cum laude from Harvard University in 1975 with a bachelor's degree in economics. He received his doctorate in economist from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1979.
The economist became a ``star'' teacher at Princeton and will use those personal skills in managing the Fed staff and working with the governors, said Kenneth Rogoff, a professor of economics at Harvard who has known Bernanke for 30 years.
``You are getting a continuation as if Greenspan was there,'' said Rogoff, who also is a former chief economist for the International Monetary Fund. ``He has the confidence to continue Greenspan's policies, but as the world changes, react to those changes as thoughtfully as Greenspan would.''
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pi ... refer=home
Oct. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Ben S. Bernanke, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers and a former Federal Reserve governor, was named by President George W. Bush to succeed Alan Greenspan as Fed chairman.
``Ben Bernanke is the right man to build on the record Alan Greenspan has established,'' Bush said today as the men stood by his side in the Oval Office. The economist ``commands deep respect in the global financial community.''
Bernanke, 51, said his first task will be to ensure continuity at the Fed as he replaces the man Bush today called a ``legend.'' The former Princeton economics professor, who was on the Fed from 2002 until June, may champion the Fed's move toward greater openness, possibly including a numeric inflation target, and keep the Fed raising rates to counter rising prices, economists said. He also can help shape the Fed by influencing Bush's picks for two other open Fed governor positions.
``He will put an emphasis on a more predictable format for Federal Reserve monetary policy,'' said William Ford, former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
Bernanke's first challenges include establishing credibility with investors and Congress and showing that he, like Greenspan, has what it takes to keep the economy on keel during crises. Greenspan, who is 79 and will leave the Fed when his term as governor expires Jan. 31, gave Bernanke his seal of approval.
``The president has made a distinguished appointment in Ben Bernanke,'' Greenspan said today. ``Ben comes with superb academic credentials and important insights into the ways our economy functions.''
Bush's Decision
Bush's decision to tap Bernanke for the CEA in June was widely seen as grooming him to replace Greenspan. Bernanke led surveys as both a qualified and likely choice for successor.
``He's got the right pedigree,'' Ethan Harris, chief U.S. economist for Lehman Brothers Inc. in New York, said of Bernanke, a former economics and policy professor at Princeton University. That said, ``you're replacing an icon with a mere mortal, and he's going to have to prove himself in the job.''
Greenspan maneuvered the economy through two stock-market collapses, in 1987 and 2000, and two recessions in 1990-91 and in 2001. The expansion between those economic slumps was the longest in U.S. history.
``If I am confirmed to this position, my first priority will be to maintain continuity with the policies and policy strategies established during the Greenspan years,'' Bernanke said today.
Confirmation Process
The Fed has raised interest rates 11 times since June 2004, to 3.75 percent, to head off inflation and most economists in a Bloomberg News monthly survey predict the rate will reach 4.5 percent by the end of the first quarter.
With the appointment of Bernanke and two other Fed governors, Bush will become the first president since Ronald Reagan to have appointed or reappointed all seven board members.
Greenspan's successor is subject to Senate confirmation. Banking Committee Chairman Richard Shelby, an Alabama Republican, said today he expects Bernanke to be ``well-received by all members of our committee.'' A spokesman for the committee said he expects a hearing before Congress adjourns this year.
Bernanke joined the Fed as a governor in 2002 and over almost three years helped re-charge the research agenda by reaching out to junior staff economists in informal cafeteria seminars and through speeches on communication policies and alternative steps the Fed could use to ward off deflation.
What Bernanke Must Do
As chairman of the Fed, which sets interest rate policy, Bernanke must move quickly to establish credibility separate and apart from Greenspan. None of his predecessors faced markets that move as quickly on instant information as they do today.
Bernanke must convince bond markets that he is an inflation fighter. Even as the Fed has lifted the benchmark lending rate 11 times over the past 15 months off the lowest levels in 46 years, inflation, by every measure, has moved higher.
U.S. 10-year Treasury notes fell after today's nomination. The yield on the benchmark 10-year note rose 7 basis points, or 0.07 percentage point, to 4.45 percent at 4:20 p.m. in New York.
``The selloff was not an expression of dissatisfaction with the choice, but merely a reflection of the uncertainty going forward,'' said Bill Gross, chief investment officer at Pacific Investment Management Co. in Newport Beach, California. ``Although they might be satisfied with the choice, as am I, there's more uncertainty with Bernanke than there was with Greenspan, so risk premiums and higher yields is probably the result today.''
The Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index rose 19.8, or 1.7 percent.
Inflation Targeting
Bernanke is an advocate of a strategy called inflation targeting where a central bank specifies a numerical goal for prices. The Federal Open Market Committee debated the strategy as early as February, and decided to defer the discussion.
Economists said Bernanke is unlikely to push the strategy immediately, in part because both Governors Roger Ferguson Jr. and Donald Kohn are opposed.
``This is obviously an issue on which knowledgeable and reasonable people can disagree,'' former Fed Governor Susan Phillips said in an interview. ``I don't think he will be in a position to move overnight. I think he has a strong belief this is a good addition to monetary policy and he'll try to persuade the committee that is the case.''
Handling Congress
Bernanke once named his personal range for desirable inflation. ``An inflation target in the range of 1 to 2 percent per annum for the core personal consumption expenditure'' price index ``might be a good initial choice,'' he said during his confirmation hearing as a governor on July 18, 2002. By that measure, inflation would already be at the top of his target for the 12 months ended in August.
As a Fed chairman, one of his tests will be gaining credibility on Capitol Hill. For much of the past decade, Greenspan received praise during his appearances, and congressmen rarely challenged the Fed's policies. Since he was sworn in at the CEA on June 21, Bernanke has testified twice before Congress and given five speeches on non-controversial subjects.
Greenspan ``has a great deal of credibility with financial markets at home and abroad, and also a great deal of credibility on Capitol Hill,'' said Michael Mussa, senior economist at the Institute for International Economics. ``A new Fed chairman will not instantaneously inherit the mantle.''
Bernanke has also shown he's agile under questioning from members of Congress, particularly on issues that Democrats support, such as a higher minimum wage.
Fed's Dual Mandate
Asked in May by Maryland Senator Paul Sarbanes, a Democrat, whether he would take back what he wrote in a 1991 textbook that increasing the minimum wage would have only minor economic drawbacks, Bernanke replied: ``No, senator, I've just become more uncertain.''
The Fed is unusual among the world's central banks in that it has two mandates: stable prices as well as sustained growth that will result in low unemployment. Bernanke will have to at least express concern about jobs and growth in his nomination hearing, and, if confirmed, during his semi-annual testimony in February.
Delivering on the expansion will be tricky, however.
Economists expect U.S. growth to slow, even as inflation expectations rise in the aftermath of a 51 percent increase in retail gasoline prices this year. Fed officials have made it clear they intend to keep leaning against inflation by pushing up the federal funds rate, even after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita hurt third-quarter growth prospects.
Selection Process
The president called Bernanke from Air Force One on Oct. 21 to discuss the nomination and actually offered him the post in the Oval Office at about 7:15 a.m. today, spokesman Scott McClellan said in an e-mailed statement.
The search began in late April, McClellan said, adding that Bush's nominating committee consulted academics, Wall Street executives, business leaders and lawmakers from both parties in Congress. He said the initial list had more than 20 names and that Bush met with the search committee several times and sought advice from Greenspan on the qualifications needed.
The nominating committee included Vice President Dick Cheney; Chief of Staff Andy Card; National Economic Adviser Al Hubbard; Liza Wright, an aide for presidential personnel; and I. Lewis ``Scooter'' Libby, Cheney's chief of staff.
Bernanke graduated summa cum laude from Harvard University in 1975 with a bachelor's degree in economics. He received his doctorate in economist from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1979.
The economist became a ``star'' teacher at Princeton and will use those personal skills in managing the Fed staff and working with the governors, said Kenneth Rogoff, a professor of economics at Harvard who has known Bernanke for 30 years.
``You are getting a continuation as if Greenspan was there,'' said Rogoff, who also is a former chief economist for the International Monetary Fund. ``He has the confidence to continue Greenspan's policies, but as the world changes, react to those changes as thoughtfully as Greenspan would.''
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pi ... refer=home
Só receberás aquilo que és ou no que verdadeiramente te tornares.
-
- Mensagens: 1012
- Registado: 5/6/2004 15:17
- Localização: Capital do outrora Império
Realmente, há muito que se fala de "Benny" S. Bernanke para o cargo em causa.
Num primeiro momento, ele deverá manter a linha actual de combate moderado à inflação, até para não enervar o mercado, sempre receoso do inesperado.
Mas, não esquecer que ele é um monetarista (inflacionista) clássico. O homem do dinheiro jogado dos helicópteros, se for necessário, para combater a deflação (e a estagnação).
Portanto, se for ele o nomeado, temos, no longo prazo, um homem para ajudar o Governo a combater uma possível retracção da Economia, novamente pela via do crédito barato e da expansão da base monetária, que continua a bater sucessivos recordes nos EUA, bem como a dívida pública Federal, que já atinge mais de 70% do PIB.
Curiosamente, não parece que seja uma personalidade que se assuste com quedas do USD... por isso, veremos...
Abraço a todos, vamos aguardar
djovarius
Num primeiro momento, ele deverá manter a linha actual de combate moderado à inflação, até para não enervar o mercado, sempre receoso do inesperado.
Mas, não esquecer que ele é um monetarista (inflacionista) clássico. O homem do dinheiro jogado dos helicópteros, se for necessário, para combater a deflação (e a estagnação).
Portanto, se for ele o nomeado, temos, no longo prazo, um homem para ajudar o Governo a combater uma possível retracção da Economia, novamente pela via do crédito barato e da expansão da base monetária, que continua a bater sucessivos recordes nos EUA, bem como a dívida pública Federal, que já atinge mais de 70% do PIB.
Curiosamente, não parece que seja uma personalidade que se assuste com quedas do USD... por isso, veremos...
Abraço a todos, vamos aguardar
djovarius
Cuidado com o que desejas pois todo o Universo pode se conjugar para a sua realização.
-
- Mensagens: 9291
- Registado: 10/11/2002 19:32
- Localização: Planeta Algarve
Deixo aqui dois comentários de analistas do Realmoney ao previsível sucessor...
Barry Ritholtz
Some quick thoughts on the Bernanke nomination
10/24/2005 11:35 AM EDT
"Two immediate thoughts come to mind about this, one economic and one political:
1) Ben Bernanke is a safe, strong choice, sure to be liked by both the Bond and Equity markets. He has already shown a gift for Jawboning, which has evolved into a key aspect of the Fed Chair's job. One can only hope that his infamous "printing press" comments -- essentially threatening hyper-inflation as a response to Deflationary concerns -- was just so much Jawboning.
2) The Fed chair replacement comes amid the tumult of the Harriet Miers Supreme Court nomination, the previous black eye of the FEMA chief Brown -- and not even discussing the problematic appointments of the poor planning in Iraq post-War period -- this is one appointment that the pro-market White House wouldn't dream of risking on anything less than a stellar candidate, and that have one in Bernanke. We should expect an easy confirmation.
As a side note, I continue to be stunned by the breadth of the Princeton Economics department continues -- not just Bernanke, but Burton G. Malkiel, Paul Krugman, Daniel Kahneman, Alan S. Blinder, and Alan B. Krueger (and I have no affiliation with Princeton). I'm curious as to the thoughts of any of the academically affiliated members -- Kedrosky, Simons, or anyone else . . .
Position: none"
David Merkel
Likely Bond Market Reaction to Bernanke
10/24/2005 11:30 AM EDT
"Aaron, what I say here, I say without a high degree of confidence. A lot depends on whether Bernanke is willing to burnish up his "inflation fighting" mantle. He is known for being dovish, but he might choose to "act tough" at an initial phase in his Chairmanship in order to appease the markets and the hawks on the FOMC, who outnumber the doves. Later, as he gains the confidence of the FOMC, he can revert to dovishness.
So, as I watch the long end of the yield curve take on a little gas post-rumor, I would be inclined to stay in the barbelled position that I currently have: long long bonds and short bonds, but not the middle of the curve. The FOMC should continue tightening for a while here, perhaps to a 5% fed funds target, unless something blows up first. And yes, the curve would be inverted at a 5% fed funds rate.
PS -- Supposedly Bernanke has cancelled meetings in New York today in order to stay in Washington. Announcement is expected around 1PM Eastern today.
Position: none"
(in www.realmoney.com)
Barry Ritholtz
Some quick thoughts on the Bernanke nomination
10/24/2005 11:35 AM EDT
"Two immediate thoughts come to mind about this, one economic and one political:
1) Ben Bernanke is a safe, strong choice, sure to be liked by both the Bond and Equity markets. He has already shown a gift for Jawboning, which has evolved into a key aspect of the Fed Chair's job. One can only hope that his infamous "printing press" comments -- essentially threatening hyper-inflation as a response to Deflationary concerns -- was just so much Jawboning.
2) The Fed chair replacement comes amid the tumult of the Harriet Miers Supreme Court nomination, the previous black eye of the FEMA chief Brown -- and not even discussing the problematic appointments of the poor planning in Iraq post-War period -- this is one appointment that the pro-market White House wouldn't dream of risking on anything less than a stellar candidate, and that have one in Bernanke. We should expect an easy confirmation.
As a side note, I continue to be stunned by the breadth of the Princeton Economics department continues -- not just Bernanke, but Burton G. Malkiel, Paul Krugman, Daniel Kahneman, Alan S. Blinder, and Alan B. Krueger (and I have no affiliation with Princeton). I'm curious as to the thoughts of any of the academically affiliated members -- Kedrosky, Simons, or anyone else . . .
Position: none"
David Merkel
Likely Bond Market Reaction to Bernanke
10/24/2005 11:30 AM EDT
"Aaron, what I say here, I say without a high degree of confidence. A lot depends on whether Bernanke is willing to burnish up his "inflation fighting" mantle. He is known for being dovish, but he might choose to "act tough" at an initial phase in his Chairmanship in order to appease the markets and the hawks on the FOMC, who outnumber the doves. Later, as he gains the confidence of the FOMC, he can revert to dovishness.
So, as I watch the long end of the yield curve take on a little gas post-rumor, I would be inclined to stay in the barbelled position that I currently have: long long bonds and short bonds, but not the middle of the curve. The FOMC should continue tightening for a while here, perhaps to a 5% fed funds target, unless something blows up first. And yes, the curve would be inverted at a 5% fed funds rate.
PS -- Supposedly Bernanke has cancelled meetings in New York today in order to stay in Washington. Announcement is expected around 1PM Eastern today.
Position: none"
(in www.realmoney.com)
-
- Administrador Fórum
- Mensagens: 31013
- Registado: 29/10/2002 4:04
- Localização: Aveiro
bernanke
reports said bush picks bernanke as fed chairman
"Quem comprou, comprou. Quem não comprou, comprasse."
-
- Mensagens: 910
- Registado: 5/11/2002 11:12
- Localização: Aveiro
Anuncio hoje do novo presidente da FED?
Será hoje o anúncio de quem sucederá ao "maestro" Greenspan?
White House said to tap Bernanke
President's Bush nominee to succeed Greenspan will be his chief economic adviser, report says.
October 24, 2005: 11:42 AM EDT
"NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - President Bush was expected to announce Monday that he has picked top economic adviser Ben Bernanke to succeed Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, Reuters reported.
The news agency, quoting a knowledgeable source, said an announcement was to come at 1 p.m. EDT.
Bush told reporters there would be "an announcement soon" on his choice to replace Greenspan, whose 18-year tenure at the Fed runs out on Jan. 31, Reuters said.
Bernanke is chairman of Bush's Council of Economic Advisers. He served on the Fed's board of governors for nearly three years before moving to the White House in June.
His move to the White House was watched with interest on Wall Street because of the belief that he was on the fast track to replace Greenspan.
Bernanke is a former Fed governor who was considered one of the policy trend setters while at the central bank, espousing the virtues of an inflation target to guide monetary policy.
In addition to Bernanke, other candidates mentioned include Glenn Hubbard, a past adviser to Bush, Harvard economist Martin Feldstein and Fed governor Donald Kohn.
Before Bernanke moved to the White House job, many had thought Bush would nominate Martin Feldstein, a former CEA head under President Ronald Reagan and one of the nation's leading academic economists. But as Bernanke's odds increased, Feldstein's seemed to diminish.
Former Fed governor Larry Lindsey, the guy who estimated the Iraq war would cost billions more than the Bush team wanted to let on before it started -- does he have a chance? While he's often mentioned, I was told by one former Fed governor that Bush isn't keen on him.
Kohn is considered a great dark horse candidate by some on Wall Street and among former Fed folks.
He started out as a staff economist for the Fed's board of governors in 1975, advanced to the influential post of head staff economist, and then became a Fed governor three years ago. That's an unusual transition.
He has no obvious political connections but is considered super-qualified.
Hubbard, the president's first chief economic adviser, championed the dividend tax cut and was considered to be a front runner.
But he's now back at Columbia University and is said to be happy teaching economics and living in New York City -- and not as interested in the job as other candidates.
A couple more names to consider, even though they are given very slim odds.
Fed vice-chairman Roger Ferguson is considered a very close ally of Mr. G. himself, and a very bright guy. Plus, he happens to be African-American in case Mr. Bush wanted to play the "diversity" card.
Then there's one of my favorites, Bob McTeer, the former head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, now chancellor of the Texas A&M University system -- long considered a distant possibility.
He's got strong supply-side roots, that would please Bush, and he's from Texas by way of Georgia.
But he seems happy in his current job and Wall Street never seems to have gotten over the fact that he bucked the tide at the Fed in the mid-90's and dissented against rate hikes briefly when everyone else at the Fed thought that was the way to go.
The beginning of new era at the Fed is upon us. So let's sit back and wait. "
(in http://money.cnn.com/2005/10/24/comment ... tm?cnn=yes )
White House said to tap Bernanke
President's Bush nominee to succeed Greenspan will be his chief economic adviser, report says.
October 24, 2005: 11:42 AM EDT
"NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - President Bush was expected to announce Monday that he has picked top economic adviser Ben Bernanke to succeed Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, Reuters reported.
The news agency, quoting a knowledgeable source, said an announcement was to come at 1 p.m. EDT.
Bush told reporters there would be "an announcement soon" on his choice to replace Greenspan, whose 18-year tenure at the Fed runs out on Jan. 31, Reuters said.
Bernanke is chairman of Bush's Council of Economic Advisers. He served on the Fed's board of governors for nearly three years before moving to the White House in June.
His move to the White House was watched with interest on Wall Street because of the belief that he was on the fast track to replace Greenspan.
Bernanke is a former Fed governor who was considered one of the policy trend setters while at the central bank, espousing the virtues of an inflation target to guide monetary policy.
In addition to Bernanke, other candidates mentioned include Glenn Hubbard, a past adviser to Bush, Harvard economist Martin Feldstein and Fed governor Donald Kohn.
Before Bernanke moved to the White House job, many had thought Bush would nominate Martin Feldstein, a former CEA head under President Ronald Reagan and one of the nation's leading academic economists. But as Bernanke's odds increased, Feldstein's seemed to diminish.
Former Fed governor Larry Lindsey, the guy who estimated the Iraq war would cost billions more than the Bush team wanted to let on before it started -- does he have a chance? While he's often mentioned, I was told by one former Fed governor that Bush isn't keen on him.
Kohn is considered a great dark horse candidate by some on Wall Street and among former Fed folks.
He started out as a staff economist for the Fed's board of governors in 1975, advanced to the influential post of head staff economist, and then became a Fed governor three years ago. That's an unusual transition.
He has no obvious political connections but is considered super-qualified.
Hubbard, the president's first chief economic adviser, championed the dividend tax cut and was considered to be a front runner.
But he's now back at Columbia University and is said to be happy teaching economics and living in New York City -- and not as interested in the job as other candidates.
A couple more names to consider, even though they are given very slim odds.
Fed vice-chairman Roger Ferguson is considered a very close ally of Mr. G. himself, and a very bright guy. Plus, he happens to be African-American in case Mr. Bush wanted to play the "diversity" card.
Then there's one of my favorites, Bob McTeer, the former head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, now chancellor of the Texas A&M University system -- long considered a distant possibility.
He's got strong supply-side roots, that would please Bush, and he's from Texas by way of Georgia.
But he seems happy in his current job and Wall Street never seems to have gotten over the fact that he bucked the tide at the Fed in the mid-90's and dissented against rate hikes briefly when everyone else at the Fed thought that was the way to go.
The beginning of new era at the Fed is upon us. So let's sit back and wait. "
(in http://money.cnn.com/2005/10/24/comment ... tm?cnn=yes )
-
- Administrador Fórum
- Mensagens: 31013
- Registado: 29/10/2002 4:04
- Localização: Aveiro
12 mensagens
|Página 1 de 1
Quem está ligado: