Dynamic Pivots - Matsys
GBP market comments
Today"s key US event risk is the 13:00GMT disclosure of July TIC data. June inflows: $71.2bn. Pre-TIC: the size of Q2"s US current account deficit will be disclosed at 12:30GMT. Forecast: $193.0bn, from $195.1bn in Q1. Post-TIC: September"s preliminary Michigan Sentiment index will be unveiled at 13:45GMT. Forecast: 85.0, from
89.1 in August.
The MPC"s David Walton is also slated to speak at 13:00GMT.
Walton is the MPC"s newest member (having joined on July 1), and voted for last month"s 25bp UK rate cut (as well as voting for a cut in July). The risk of another UK rate cut has risen on the back of yesterday"s soft UK retail sales figures.
GBP/USD tripped stops above 1.8100 en route to a high of 1.8148 during the Asian session, as it pushed its recovery envelope from yesterday"s two-week low of 1.8037. EUR/USD led GBP/USD higher, as evidenced by EUR/GBP strength. 1.8148+ resistance runs at 1.8160 (Thursday"s Asian session low), 1.8185, and 1.8225 (Wednesday"s NY session floor). Support points are located at 1.8080, 1.8060 (Asian session base), 1.8030, and 1.8000.
Today"s key US event risk is the 13:00GMT disclosure of July TIC data. June inflows: $71.2bn. Pre-TIC: the size of Q2"s US current account deficit will be disclosed at 12:30GMT. Forecast: $193.0bn, from $195.1bn in Q1. Post-TIC: September"s preliminary Michigan Sentiment index will be unveiled at 13:45GMT. Forecast: 85.0, from
89.1 in August.
The MPC"s David Walton is also slated to speak at 13:00GMT.
Walton is the MPC"s newest member (having joined on July 1), and voted for last month"s 25bp UK rate cut (as well as voting for a cut in July). The risk of another UK rate cut has risen on the back of yesterday"s soft UK retail sales figures.
GBP/USD tripped stops above 1.8100 en route to a high of 1.8148 during the Asian session, as it pushed its recovery envelope from yesterday"s two-week low of 1.8037. EUR/USD led GBP/USD higher, as evidenced by EUR/GBP strength. 1.8148+ resistance runs at 1.8160 (Thursday"s Asian session low), 1.8185, and 1.8225 (Wednesday"s NY session floor). Support points are located at 1.8080, 1.8060 (Asian session base), 1.8030, and 1.8000.
- Mensagens: 94
- Registado: 21/7/2005 11:36
- Localização: Europe
daily economic events
[Current Account
(Q2)]
IFR forecasts a current account shortfall of $193 bln in the second quarter compared with the record $195.1 bln seen in the first quarter. The improvement in the trade deficit should have helped to rein in the current account. Still, at an estimated 6.2% of GDP, the deficit is troubling. At this clip it would take net foreign investment of about $65 bln or so on average per month to finance the deficit. The July TIC data is due immediate following this release
(13:00). A net purchase of $65 bln or so is anticipated in July,
down from
$71.2 bln in
June.
[Michigan Sentiment
(pSep)]
IFR expects the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment index to fall sharply to 83.0 from 92.7 in August. Hurricane Katrina is likely to weigh on consumer attitudes. While the events are not comparable, the events of September 11, 2001 weighed on the Michigan index. It fell nearly ten points between August and September 2001. The run-up in gas prices following the disruptions to energy supplies will figure prominently this time around, knocking the expectations index sharply lower. This already happened with the IBD/TIPP index. Some recovery is expected in the final survey as gas futures prices have started to ease which should eventually
bring some relief at the
pumps.
[Date Time Release Unit Per IFR EST Median Prev
Low/High ]
16-Sep 12:30 Current Acct Deficit $bn Q-2 193.0 192.5 195.1 190.0
195.0
16-Sep 13:45 Michigan Sentiment Idx pSep 83.0 85.0 92.7
82.0 89.1
Jennifer.Rossum
[Current Account
(Q2)]
IFR forecasts a current account shortfall of $193 bln in the second quarter compared with the record $195.1 bln seen in the first quarter. The improvement in the trade deficit should have helped to rein in the current account. Still, at an estimated 6.2% of GDP, the deficit is troubling. At this clip it would take net foreign investment of about $65 bln or so on average per month to finance the deficit. The July TIC data is due immediate following this release
(13:00). A net purchase of $65 bln or so is anticipated in July,
down from
$71.2 bln in
June.
[Michigan Sentiment
(pSep)]
IFR expects the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment index to fall sharply to 83.0 from 92.7 in August. Hurricane Katrina is likely to weigh on consumer attitudes. While the events are not comparable, the events of September 11, 2001 weighed on the Michigan index. It fell nearly ten points between August and September 2001. The run-up in gas prices following the disruptions to energy supplies will figure prominently this time around, knocking the expectations index sharply lower. This already happened with the IBD/TIPP index. Some recovery is expected in the final survey as gas futures prices have started to ease which should eventually
bring some relief at the
pumps.
[Date Time Release Unit Per IFR EST Median Prev
Low/High ]
16-Sep 12:30 Current Acct Deficit $bn Q-2 193.0 192.5 195.1 190.0
195.0
16-Sep 13:45 Michigan Sentiment Idx pSep 83.0 85.0 92.7
82.0 89.1
Jennifer.Rossum
- Mensagens: 94
- Registado: 21/7/2005 11:36
- Localização: Europe
EMA Opt system, Real time (Test )
PAIRS EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/CHF
SIGNALS 7-16 5-21 6-14
DYNAMIC PIVOTS, Real time
PAIRS ATR LB MS PIVOT MR AT HB
EUR/USD 12136 12173 12216 12276 12307
GBP/USD 17961 18033 18071 18204 18294
USD/CHF 12546 12601 12666 12708 12743
SHORT TERM BREAK POINTS
PAIRS SUPPORT BREAK POINTS RESISTANCE BREAK POINTS
EUR/USD 12168 12294
GBP/USD 18021 18155
USD/CHF 12583 12701
MACD OPT
PAIRS EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/CHF
SIGNALS 8-12-5 9-7-5 6-8-4
PAIRS EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/CHF
SIGNALS 7-16 5-21 6-14
DYNAMIC PIVOTS, Real time
PAIRS ATR LB MS PIVOT MR AT HB
EUR/USD 12136 12173 12216 12276 12307
GBP/USD 17961 18033 18071 18204 18294
USD/CHF 12546 12601 12666 12708 12743
SHORT TERM BREAK POINTS
PAIRS SUPPORT BREAK POINTS RESISTANCE BREAK POINTS
EUR/USD 12168 12294
GBP/USD 18021 18155
USD/CHF 12583 12701
MACD OPT
PAIRS EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/CHF
SIGNALS 8-12-5 9-7-5 6-8-4
- Mensagens: 94
- Registado: 21/7/2005 11:36
- Localização: Europe
Market Comment:
The market is not reacting favourably to the increased chances of a
grand coalition in Germany. Opinion polls suggest the main parties
are neck and neck ahead of Sunday"s voting. The bottom line for the
market is the risk to the vital reform process. The Germans under the
Schroeder administration have struggled to push ahead with reforms and
the economy has been the laggard of Europe as a result. As the global
economy moves through its cycles the Germans have failed to benefit
from upswings and now that the world economy is facing fresh
challenges from the energy crisis the lack of reform
will again be telling. The EUR has been sold across the board and
EUR/USD has fallen steadily from a 1.2590 peak at the start of the
month to 1.2245 last session. Wednesday action has been tight but the
bear bias is holding through early Europe. A 1.2260 test seen before a
bounce back to 1.2285-95 but expect offers to be tight to market and
limit furthrer corrective rebounds. Talk of Russian and Central
European demand but heavier interest on the sell side from funds and
intraday traders. peter.stoneham
The market is not reacting favourably to the increased chances of a
grand coalition in Germany. Opinion polls suggest the main parties
are neck and neck ahead of Sunday"s voting. The bottom line for the
market is the risk to the vital reform process. The Germans under the
Schroeder administration have struggled to push ahead with reforms and
the economy has been the laggard of Europe as a result. As the global
economy moves through its cycles the Germans have failed to benefit
from upswings and now that the world economy is facing fresh
challenges from the energy crisis the lack of reform
will again be telling. The EUR has been sold across the board and
EUR/USD has fallen steadily from a 1.2590 peak at the start of the
month to 1.2245 last session. Wednesday action has been tight but the
bear bias is holding through early Europe. A 1.2260 test seen before a
bounce back to 1.2285-95 but expect offers to be tight to market and
limit furthrer corrective rebounds. Talk of Russian and Central
European demand but heavier interest on the sell side from funds and
intraday traders. peter.stoneham
- Mensagens: 94
- Registado: 21/7/2005 11:36
- Localização: Europe
The euro appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.2415 level and was supported around the $1.2325 level. Technically, today’s high was above the 76.4% retracement of the move from $1.2485 to $1.2125 and chartists are now eyeing the $1.2485/ 95 levels as the next upside target, representing the 38.2% retracement of the move from $1.3480 to $1.1870. All eyes remain focused on the aftermath of hurricane Katrina in the southern U.S. and its economic and financial impact on the domestic economy there. Gasoline prices have skyrocketed in the U.S. and for a country with a savings rate near zero per cent, escalating energy prices could eat into final private demand. Some market participants are thinking the Federal Reserve will not move interest rates higher by 25bps at the September Federal Open Market Committee meeting and instead opt to assess and survey the financial implications of Katrina. Philadelphia Fed President Santomero yesterday said he believes the economy will slow as a result of Katrina but added the U.S.’s economic expansion “is strong enough to withstand (the impact).” Many economic data were released in the U.S. today. First, it was reported that July personal income was up +0.3% while personal savings printed at +1.0% with June’s total upwardly revised. The PCE deflator moved higher to 2.5% from 2.2% while core personal consumption expenditures – a favourite Fed measure of price pressures – was up +0.1%. Weekly initial jobless claims climbed 3,000 to 320,000. Other data released today saw the August ISM manufacturing index came in at 53.6, down from 56.6 in July. The new orders sub-index fell to 56.4 from 60.6 while the employment index fell to 52.6 from 53.2. The market’s preoccupation with hurricane Katrina has resulted in the U.S. dollar being largely unable to gain ground from positive U.S. economic data, an asymmetric effect. Most, if not all, of the economic data being released now were calculated and compiled before Katrina struck the U.S. and the data generally paint a picture of an economy that evidenced some deceleration in economic activity over the past one or two months. In eurozone news, European Central Bank voted to keep interest rates unchanged at 2.0%, as expected. The ECB has not changed rates since June 2003 and traders are curious to see what ECB President Trichet will say in his post-meeting comments today. The recent increase in the eurozone’s M3 money supply has some dealers believing the ECB has become more hawkish while others believe the ECB will tread cautiously given the current spike in energy prices. Most traders believe the ECB will not change policy until Q1 2006 and that is likely to be a monetary tightening. Data released in the eurozone today saw August EMU-12 manufacturing PMI recede to 50.5 from 50.8 in July while the EMU-
12 July unemployment index fell to 8.6% from 8.7% in June. Germany’s manufacturing PMI rate contracted to 48.7 from 49.8 in July. All eyes are on tomorrow’s U.S. August non-farm payrolls report. Weakness in today’s U.S. ISM manufacturing index and the employment sub-index could evidence a pullback in employment. Euro offers are cited around the $1.2495/ $1.2645 levels.
12 July unemployment index fell to 8.6% from 8.7% in June. Germany’s manufacturing PMI rate contracted to 48.7 from 49.8 in July. All eyes are on tomorrow’s U.S. August non-farm payrolls report. Weakness in today’s U.S. ISM manufacturing index and the employment sub-index could evidence a pullback in employment. Euro offers are cited around the $1.2495/ $1.2645 levels.
- Mensagens: 94
- Registado: 21/7/2005 11:36
- Localização: Europe
Market comment:
After yesterday"s perfect storm of spiraling gasoline prices and weak
Chicago PMI swamped the greenback, the market awaits confirmation
that that energy prices are infacxt taking a severe toll on the US
economy. Today"s ISM survey will be the barometer used. If it confirms
the weakness seen in Chicago yesterday, look for a run at 1.2500 as
the market continues to price out further
moves from the Fed. If ISM holds in the high 50s than a set back is
likely for EUR/USD with the market mindful of Santomero"s comments
just yesterday reiterating continued tightening despite the Katrina-
effect. The ECB press conference will likely see Trichet stick to a
hawkish line after the ECB staff forecast another year of 2.0% HICP.
No action is likely to accompany the rhetoric, as has been the case
for the last two-years. 1.2345/55 is good support on dips this
morning. Hourly charts are quite bearishly divergent, favoring a
pullback near-term. 1.2405 is resistance. Stops are eyed at 1.2410/15
but offers are arrayed from 1.2450 through 1.2500.
After yesterday"s perfect storm of spiraling gasoline prices and weak
Chicago PMI swamped the greenback, the market awaits confirmation
that that energy prices are infacxt taking a severe toll on the US
economy. Today"s ISM survey will be the barometer used. If it confirms
the weakness seen in Chicago yesterday, look for a run at 1.2500 as
the market continues to price out further
moves from the Fed. If ISM holds in the high 50s than a set back is
likely for EUR/USD with the market mindful of Santomero"s comments
just yesterday reiterating continued tightening despite the Katrina-
effect. The ECB press conference will likely see Trichet stick to a
hawkish line after the ECB staff forecast another year of 2.0% HICP.
No action is likely to accompany the rhetoric, as has been the case
for the last two-years. 1.2345/55 is good support on dips this
morning. Hourly charts are quite bearishly divergent, favoring a
pullback near-term. 1.2405 is resistance. Stops are eyed at 1.2410/15
but offers are arrayed from 1.2450 through 1.2500.
- Mensagens: 94
- Registado: 21/7/2005 11:36
- Localização: Europe
-
- Mensagens: 93
- Registado: 19/4/2003 21:59
- Localização: RUA
Dynamic Pivots
EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/CHF
Average True Range High Band
1.2244 1.7955 1.2818
Matsys Resistance
1.2208 1.7901 1.2766
Pivot Point
1.2169 1.7871 1.2714
Matsys Support
1.2133 1.7819 1.2664
Average True Range Low Band
1.2109 1.7766 1.2611
Reversal Triggers - MACD Optimizer
MACD - slow-fast-smooth
EUR/USD
10-08-04
GBP/USD
06-09-07
USD/CHF
08-03-06
EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/CHF
Average True Range High Band
1.2244 1.7955 1.2818
Matsys Resistance
1.2208 1.7901 1.2766
Pivot Point
1.2169 1.7871 1.2714
Matsys Support
1.2133 1.7819 1.2664
Average True Range Low Band
1.2109 1.7766 1.2611
Reversal Triggers - MACD Optimizer
MACD - slow-fast-smooth
EUR/USD
10-08-04
GBP/USD
06-09-07
USD/CHF
08-03-06
- Mensagens: 94
- Registado: 21/7/2005 11:36
- Localização: Europe
US Consumer Confidence is due at 14.00GMT, after 103.2 in July, expectations are for a lower 100.5 August data. US Factory orders for July are expected to shed 2.2% while inventories grew 0.6%. This being July figures and recent slowing of growth discounted for, the impact of todays data should be limited.
At 18:00 minutes of the August FOMC meeting will be released. As the market expect the next 25bp rate hike at the next meeting in September, we are keen on finding confirmation of such thoughts in todays Fed minutes.
At 18:00 minutes of the August FOMC meeting will be released. As the market expect the next 25bp rate hike at the next meeting in September, we are keen on finding confirmation of such thoughts in todays Fed minutes.
- Mensagens: 94
- Registado: 21/7/2005 11:36
- Localização: Europe
Dynamic Pivots
EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/CHF
Average True Range High Band
1.2223 1.8068 1.2816
Matsys Resistance
1.2184 1.8026 1.2785
Pivot Point
1.2155 1.7938 1.2741
Matsys Support
1.2116 1.7898 1.2711
Average True Range Low Band
1.2063 1.7817 1.2641
EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/CHF
Average True Range High Band
1.2223 1.8068 1.2816
Matsys Resistance
1.2184 1.8026 1.2785
Pivot Point
1.2155 1.7938 1.2741
Matsys Support
1.2116 1.7898 1.2711
Average True Range Low Band
1.2063 1.7817 1.2641
- Mensagens: 94
- Registado: 21/7/2005 11:36
- Localização: Europe
Weekly Trades:
08/15 05:38 EUR/USD SHORT 1.2405 1.2382 1.2373 08/15 10:44 32
08/15 05:39 GBP/USD SHORT 1.8126 1.8121 1.8098 08/15 10:46 28
08/15 05:39 USD/CHF BUY 1.2504 1.2521 1.2543 08/15 10:47 39
08/15 13:11 GBP/USD SHORT 1.8094 1.8082 08/15 13:48 12
08/15 13:13 EUR/USD SHORT 1.2356 1.2361 08/15 13:55 -5
08/15 13:55 EUR/USD BUY 1.2361 1.2355 08/15 15:57 -6
08/15 17:13 GBP/USD BUY 1.8097 1.8116 08/15 18:57 19
08/16 06:02 EUR/USD BUY 1.2353 1.2362 08/16 08:06 9
08/16 07:11 USD/CHF SHORT 1.2549 1.2558 08/16 08:32 -9
08/16 07:01 GBP/USD BUY 1.8101 1.8122 08/16 08:41 21
08/16 09:21 GBP/USD SHORT 1.8094 1.8097 08/16 10:11 -3
08/16 08:32 EUR/USD SHORT 1.2351 1.2328 08/16 10:32 23
08/16 08:33 USD/CHF BUY 1.2562 1.2594 08/16 11:23 32
08/17 05:14 USD/CHF SHORT 1.2577 1.2596 08/17 06:28 -19
08/17 06:31 USD/CHF BUY 1.2600 1.2607 08/17 08:32 7
08/17 06:07 EUR/USD SHORT 1.2308 1.2295 08/17 08:33 13
08/17 08:31 GBP/USD BUY 1.8072 1.8100 08/17 11:14 28
08/17 10:47 USD/CHF SHORT 1.2596 1.2588 08/17 11:15 8
08/17 10:47 EUR/USD BUY 1.2296 1.2298 08/17 11:19 2
08/17 12:57 GBP/USD BUY 1.8111 1.8089 08/17 14:02 -22
08/17 23:39 EUR/USD SHORT 1.2263 1.2265 08/18 01:12 -2
08/17 23:40 USD/CHF BUY 1.2624 1.2617 08/18 01:16 -7
08/17 23:40 GBP/USD SHORT 1.8043 1.8054 08/18 01:18 -11
08/18 02:38 GBP/USD BUY 1.8058 1.8050 08/18 03:39 -8
08/18 01:16 USD/CHF SHORT 1.2614 1.2606 08/18 04:29 8
08/18 01:15 EUR/USD BUY 1.2269 1.2281 08/18 04:31 12
08/18 05:44 GBP/USD SHORT 1.8039 1.8053 08/18 06:24 -14
08/18 04:30 USD/CHF BUY 1.2610 1.2613 08/18 07:12 3
08/18 05:45 EUR/USD SHORT 1.2272 1.2276 08/18 07:38 -4
08/18 07:41 EUR/USD BUY 1.2282 1.2264 08/18 08:32 -18
08/18 07:16 USD/CHF SHORT 1.2609 1.2609 08/18 08:34
08/18 07:39 GBP/USD BUY 1.8068 1.8052 08/18 09:47 -16
08/18 08:32 EUR/USD SHORT 1.2260 1.2230 08/18 10:20 30
08/18 08:35 USD/CHF BUY 1.2611 1.2645 08/18 10:23 34
08/18 09:48 GBP/USD SHORT 1.8047 1.8043 08/18 10:24 4
08/19 06:01 GBP/USD SHORT 1.7914 1.7911 08/19 08:53 3
08/19 07:21 EUR/USD SHORT 1.2149 1.2161 08/19 09:07 -12
08/19 09:28 USD/CHF SHORT 1.2705 1.2724 08/19 10:40 -19
08/19 09:29 GBP/USD BUY 1.7971 1.7965 08/19 11:43 -6
08/19 09:27 EUR/USD BUY 1.2177 1.2185 08/19 11:54 8
08/19 13:19 GBP/USD SHORT 1.7932 1.7932 08/19 14:30
08/19 13:20 USD/CHF BUY 1.2735 1.2760 08/19 14:31 25
08/19 13:19 EUR/USD SHORT 1.2162 1.2149 08/19 14:32 13
Weekly results on Matsys T (2 lots): +604 pips
08/15 05:38 EUR/USD SHORT 1.2405 1.2382 1.2373 08/15 10:44 32
08/15 05:39 GBP/USD SHORT 1.8126 1.8121 1.8098 08/15 10:46 28
08/15 05:39 USD/CHF BUY 1.2504 1.2521 1.2543 08/15 10:47 39
08/15 13:11 GBP/USD SHORT 1.8094 1.8082 08/15 13:48 12
08/15 13:13 EUR/USD SHORT 1.2356 1.2361 08/15 13:55 -5
08/15 13:55 EUR/USD BUY 1.2361 1.2355 08/15 15:57 -6
08/15 17:13 GBP/USD BUY 1.8097 1.8116 08/15 18:57 19
08/16 06:02 EUR/USD BUY 1.2353 1.2362 08/16 08:06 9
08/16 07:11 USD/CHF SHORT 1.2549 1.2558 08/16 08:32 -9
08/16 07:01 GBP/USD BUY 1.8101 1.8122 08/16 08:41 21
08/16 09:21 GBP/USD SHORT 1.8094 1.8097 08/16 10:11 -3
08/16 08:32 EUR/USD SHORT 1.2351 1.2328 08/16 10:32 23
08/16 08:33 USD/CHF BUY 1.2562 1.2594 08/16 11:23 32
08/17 05:14 USD/CHF SHORT 1.2577 1.2596 08/17 06:28 -19
08/17 06:31 USD/CHF BUY 1.2600 1.2607 08/17 08:32 7
08/17 06:07 EUR/USD SHORT 1.2308 1.2295 08/17 08:33 13
08/17 08:31 GBP/USD BUY 1.8072 1.8100 08/17 11:14 28
08/17 10:47 USD/CHF SHORT 1.2596 1.2588 08/17 11:15 8
08/17 10:47 EUR/USD BUY 1.2296 1.2298 08/17 11:19 2
08/17 12:57 GBP/USD BUY 1.8111 1.8089 08/17 14:02 -22
08/17 23:39 EUR/USD SHORT 1.2263 1.2265 08/18 01:12 -2
08/17 23:40 USD/CHF BUY 1.2624 1.2617 08/18 01:16 -7
08/17 23:40 GBP/USD SHORT 1.8043 1.8054 08/18 01:18 -11
08/18 02:38 GBP/USD BUY 1.8058 1.8050 08/18 03:39 -8
08/18 01:16 USD/CHF SHORT 1.2614 1.2606 08/18 04:29 8
08/18 01:15 EUR/USD BUY 1.2269 1.2281 08/18 04:31 12
08/18 05:44 GBP/USD SHORT 1.8039 1.8053 08/18 06:24 -14
08/18 04:30 USD/CHF BUY 1.2610 1.2613 08/18 07:12 3
08/18 05:45 EUR/USD SHORT 1.2272 1.2276 08/18 07:38 -4
08/18 07:41 EUR/USD BUY 1.2282 1.2264 08/18 08:32 -18
08/18 07:16 USD/CHF SHORT 1.2609 1.2609 08/18 08:34
08/18 07:39 GBP/USD BUY 1.8068 1.8052 08/18 09:47 -16
08/18 08:32 EUR/USD SHORT 1.2260 1.2230 08/18 10:20 30
08/18 08:35 USD/CHF BUY 1.2611 1.2645 08/18 10:23 34
08/18 09:48 GBP/USD SHORT 1.8047 1.8043 08/18 10:24 4
08/19 06:01 GBP/USD SHORT 1.7914 1.7911 08/19 08:53 3
08/19 07:21 EUR/USD SHORT 1.2149 1.2161 08/19 09:07 -12
08/19 09:28 USD/CHF SHORT 1.2705 1.2724 08/19 10:40 -19
08/19 09:29 GBP/USD BUY 1.7971 1.7965 08/19 11:43 -6
08/19 09:27 EUR/USD BUY 1.2177 1.2185 08/19 11:54 8
08/19 13:19 GBP/USD SHORT 1.7932 1.7932 08/19 14:30
08/19 13:20 USD/CHF BUY 1.2735 1.2760 08/19 14:31 25
08/19 13:19 EUR/USD SHORT 1.2162 1.2149 08/19 14:32 13
Weekly results on Matsys T (2 lots): +604 pips
- Mensagens: 94
- Registado: 21/7/2005 11:36
- Localização: Europe
Daily Trades:
08/19 06:01 GBP/USD SHORT 1.7914 1.7911 08/19 08:53 3
08/19 07:21 EUR/USD SHORT 1.2149 1.2161 08/19 09:07 -12
08/19 09:28 USD/CHF SHORT 1.2705 1.2724 08/19 10:40 -19
08/19 09:29 GBP/USD BUY 1.7971 1.7965 08/19 11:43 -6
08/19 09:27 EUR/USD BUY 1.2177 1.2185 08/19 11:54 8
08/19 13:19 GBP/USD SHORT 1.7932 1.7932 08/19 14:30
08/19 13:20 USD/CHF BUY 1.2735 1.2760 08/19 14:31 25
08/19 13:19 EUR/USD SHORT 1.2162 1.2149 08/19 14:32 13
Daily results on Matsys T (2 lots): +24 pips
08/19 06:01 GBP/USD SHORT 1.7914 1.7911 08/19 08:53 3
08/19 07:21 EUR/USD SHORT 1.2149 1.2161 08/19 09:07 -12
08/19 09:28 USD/CHF SHORT 1.2705 1.2724 08/19 10:40 -19
08/19 09:29 GBP/USD BUY 1.7971 1.7965 08/19 11:43 -6
08/19 09:27 EUR/USD BUY 1.2177 1.2185 08/19 11:54 8
08/19 13:19 GBP/USD SHORT 1.7932 1.7932 08/19 14:30
08/19 13:20 USD/CHF BUY 1.2735 1.2760 08/19 14:31 25
08/19 13:19 EUR/USD SHORT 1.2162 1.2149 08/19 14:32 13
Daily results on Matsys T (2 lots): +24 pips
- Mensagens: 94
- Registado: 21/7/2005 11:36
- Localização: Europe
Daily Trades:
08/18 02:38 GBP/USD BUY 1.8058 1.8050 08/18 03:39 -8
08/18 01:16 USD/CHF SHORT 1.2614 1.2606 08/18 04:29 8
08/18 01:15 EUR/USD BUY 1.2269 1.2281 08/18 04:31 12
08/18 05:44 GBP/USD SHORT 1.8039 1.8053 08/18 06:24 -14
08/18 04:30 USD/CHF BUY 1.2610 1.2613 08/18 07:12 3
08/18 05:45 EUR/USD SHORT 1.2272 1.2276 08/18 07:38 -4
08/18 07:41 EUR/USD BUY 1.2282 1.2264 08/18 08:32 -18
08/18 07:16 USD/CHF SHORT 1.2609 1.2609 08/18 08:34
08/18 07:39 GBP/USD BUY 1.8068 1.8052 08/18 09:47 -16
08/18 08:32 EUR/USD SHORT 1.2260 1.2230 08/18 10:20 30
08/18 08:35 USD/CHF BUY 1.2611 1.2645 08/18 10:23 34
08/18 09:48 GBP/USD SHORT 1.8047 1.8043 08/18 10:24 4
Daily results on Matsys T (2 lots): +126 pips
08/18 02:38 GBP/USD BUY 1.8058 1.8050 08/18 03:39 -8
08/18 01:16 USD/CHF SHORT 1.2614 1.2606 08/18 04:29 8
08/18 01:15 EUR/USD BUY 1.2269 1.2281 08/18 04:31 12
08/18 05:44 GBP/USD SHORT 1.8039 1.8053 08/18 06:24 -14
08/18 04:30 USD/CHF BUY 1.2610 1.2613 08/18 07:12 3
08/18 05:45 EUR/USD SHORT 1.2272 1.2276 08/18 07:38 -4
08/18 07:41 EUR/USD BUY 1.2282 1.2264 08/18 08:32 -18
08/18 07:16 USD/CHF SHORT 1.2609 1.2609 08/18 08:34
08/18 07:39 GBP/USD BUY 1.8068 1.8052 08/18 09:47 -16
08/18 08:32 EUR/USD SHORT 1.2260 1.2230 08/18 10:20 30
08/18 08:35 USD/CHF BUY 1.2611 1.2645 08/18 10:23 34
08/18 09:48 GBP/USD SHORT 1.8047 1.8043 08/18 10:24 4
Daily results on Matsys T (2 lots): +126 pips
- Mensagens: 94
- Registado: 21/7/2005 11:36
- Localização: Europe
Some explanation about our signals:
MATSYS-R or Reversal Triggers
This is a Reversal System, is a Trading System that we normally don’t use, because we only use the normal system, like with Stop Loss (SL) and Target Price (TP), but with MATSYS-R we don't use SL, because we are always in trading, how? (http://www.fxwintrades.com/m-space/page1517a.html) Usage guidelines.
For example, we Buy 1 lot at 1.2848, and don't put SL and we only wait for the next new signal, always one Short signal after one Long (buy), and this signal comes, we will Short 2 lots, so this way we will stay with one lot always, and wait again for new signal, in this case, will be again one Long.
Example:
Buy 1 lot - Sell 2 lots - Buy 2 lots - Sell 2 lots and at 21:00 GMT (or before) we close all signals.
MATSYS-T or Trend Following
This is the Trend Following, is the Trading System with a Stop Loss, but never with Target Price. We think that is a interest Trading System, is easy to use, and we only change SL to protect our position, until the Sell or Cover signal come to close our position. http://www.fxwintrades.com/1003.htm
Example:
GBP/USD: SHORT AT 1.8452 STOP LOSS AT 1.8481
GBP/USD: STOP LOSS NOW AT 1.8432
GBP/USD: STOP LOSS NOW AT 1.8426
GBP/USD: STOP LOSS NOW AT 1.8421
GBP/USD: STOP LOSS NOW AT 1.8418
GBP/USD: STOP LOSS NOW AT 1.8409
GBP/USD: STOP LOSS NOW AT 1.8400
GBP/USD: STOP LOSS NOW AT 1.8394
GBP/USD: COVER AT 1.8378 (Closed)
MATSYS-R or Reversal Triggers
This is a Reversal System, is a Trading System that we normally don’t use, because we only use the normal system, like with Stop Loss (SL) and Target Price (TP), but with MATSYS-R we don't use SL, because we are always in trading, how? (http://www.fxwintrades.com/m-space/page1517a.html) Usage guidelines.
For example, we Buy 1 lot at 1.2848, and don't put SL and we only wait for the next new signal, always one Short signal after one Long (buy), and this signal comes, we will Short 2 lots, so this way we will stay with one lot always, and wait again for new signal, in this case, will be again one Long.
Example:
Buy 1 lot - Sell 2 lots - Buy 2 lots - Sell 2 lots and at 21:00 GMT (or before) we close all signals.
MATSYS-T or Trend Following
This is the Trend Following, is the Trading System with a Stop Loss, but never with Target Price. We think that is a interest Trading System, is easy to use, and we only change SL to protect our position, until the Sell or Cover signal come to close our position. http://www.fxwintrades.com/1003.htm
Example:
GBP/USD: SHORT AT 1.8452 STOP LOSS AT 1.8481
GBP/USD: STOP LOSS NOW AT 1.8432
GBP/USD: STOP LOSS NOW AT 1.8426
GBP/USD: STOP LOSS NOW AT 1.8421
GBP/USD: STOP LOSS NOW AT 1.8418
GBP/USD: STOP LOSS NOW AT 1.8409
GBP/USD: STOP LOSS NOW AT 1.8400
GBP/USD: STOP LOSS NOW AT 1.8394
GBP/USD: COVER AT 1.8378 (Closed)
- Mensagens: 94
- Registado: 21/7/2005 11:36
- Localização: Europe
Daily Trades:
08/17 05:14 USD/CHF SHORT 1.2577 1.2596 08/17 06:28 -19
08/17 06:31 USD/CHF BUY 1.2600 1.2607 08/17 08:32 7
08/17 06:07 EUR/USD SHORT 1.2308 1.2295 08/17 08:33 13
08/17 08:31 GBP/USD BUY 1.8072 1.8100 08/17 11:14 28
08/17 10:47 USD/CHF SHORT 1.2596 1.2588 08/17 11:15 8
08/17 10:47 EUR/USD BUY 1.2296 1.2298 08/17 11:19 2
08/17 12:57 GBP/USD BUY 1.8111 1.8089 08/17 14:02 -22
08/17 23:39 EUR/USD SHORT 1.2263 1.2265 08/18 01:12 -2
08/17 23:40 USD/CHF BUY 1.2624 1.2617 08/18 01:16 -7
Daily results on Matsys T (2 lots): +16 pips
08/17 05:14 USD/CHF SHORT 1.2577 1.2596 08/17 06:28 -19
08/17 06:31 USD/CHF BUY 1.2600 1.2607 08/17 08:32 7
08/17 06:07 EUR/USD SHORT 1.2308 1.2295 08/17 08:33 13
08/17 08:31 GBP/USD BUY 1.8072 1.8100 08/17 11:14 28
08/17 10:47 USD/CHF SHORT 1.2596 1.2588 08/17 11:15 8
08/17 10:47 EUR/USD BUY 1.2296 1.2298 08/17 11:19 2
08/17 12:57 GBP/USD BUY 1.8111 1.8089 08/17 14:02 -22
08/17 23:39 EUR/USD SHORT 1.2263 1.2265 08/18 01:12 -2
08/17 23:40 USD/CHF BUY 1.2624 1.2617 08/18 01:16 -7
Daily results on Matsys T (2 lots): +16 pips
- Mensagens: 94
- Registado: 21/7/2005 11:36
- Localização: Europe
Daily trades:
08/16 06:02 EUR/USD BUY 1.2353 1.2362 08/16 08:06 9
08/16 07:11 USD/CHF SHORT 1.2549 1.2558 08/16 08:32 -9
08/16 07:01 GBP/USD BUY 1.8101 1.8122 08/16 08:41 21
08/16 09:21 GBP/USD SHORT 1.8094 1.8097 08/16 10:11 -3
08/16 08:32 EUR/USD SHORT 1.2351 1.2328 08/16 10:32 23
08/16 08:33 USD/CHF BUY 1.2562 1.2594 08/16 11:23 32
Daily results on Matsys T (2 lots): +146 pips
08/16 06:02 EUR/USD BUY 1.2353 1.2362 08/16 08:06 9
08/16 07:11 USD/CHF SHORT 1.2549 1.2558 08/16 08:32 -9
08/16 07:01 GBP/USD BUY 1.8101 1.8122 08/16 08:41 21
08/16 09:21 GBP/USD SHORT 1.8094 1.8097 08/16 10:11 -3
08/16 08:32 EUR/USD SHORT 1.2351 1.2328 08/16 10:32 23
08/16 08:33 USD/CHF BUY 1.2562 1.2594 08/16 11:23 32
Daily results on Matsys T (2 lots): +146 pips
- Mensagens: 94
- Registado: 21/7/2005 11:36
- Localização: Europe
Dynamic Pivots
EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/CHF
Average True Range High Band
1.2436 1.8179 1.2646
Matsys Resistance
1.2384 1.8133 1.2588
Pivot Point
1.2333 1.8074 1.2541
Matsys Support
1.2312 1.8028 1.2482
Average True Range Low Band
1.2282 1.7983 1.2449
Reversal Triggers - MACD Optimizer
MACD - slow-fast-smooth
EUR/USD
07-03-06
GBP/USD
10-08-12
USD/CHF
09-07-04
EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/CHF
Average True Range High Band
1.2436 1.8179 1.2646
Matsys Resistance
1.2384 1.8133 1.2588
Pivot Point
1.2333 1.8074 1.2541
Matsys Support
1.2312 1.8028 1.2482
Average True Range Low Band
1.2282 1.7983 1.2449
Reversal Triggers - MACD Optimizer
MACD - slow-fast-smooth
EUR/USD
07-03-06
GBP/USD
10-08-12
USD/CHF
09-07-04
- Mensagens: 94
- Registado: 21/7/2005 11:36
- Localização: Europe
Daily trades:
08/15 05:38 EUR/USD SHORT 1.2405 1.2382(Add Lot) 1.2373 08/15 10:44 32
08/15 05:39 GBP/USD SHORT 1.8126 1.8121(Add Lot) 1.8098 08/15 10:46 28
08/15 05:39 USD/CHF BUY 1.2504 1.2521(Add Lot) 1.2543 08/15 10:47 39
08/15 13:11 GBP/USD SHORT 1.8094 1.8082 08/15 13:48 12
08/15 13:13 EUR/USD SHORT 1.2356 1.2361 08/15 13:55 -5
08/15 13:55 EUR/USD BUY 1.2361 1.2355 08/15 15:57 -6
08/15 17:13 GBP/USD BUY 1.8097 1.8116 08/15 18:57 19
Daily results on Matsys T: +292 pips
08/15 05:38 EUR/USD SHORT 1.2405 1.2382(Add Lot) 1.2373 08/15 10:44 32
08/15 05:39 GBP/USD SHORT 1.8126 1.8121(Add Lot) 1.8098 08/15 10:46 28
08/15 05:39 USD/CHF BUY 1.2504 1.2521(Add Lot) 1.2543 08/15 10:47 39
08/15 13:11 GBP/USD SHORT 1.8094 1.8082 08/15 13:48 12
08/15 13:13 EUR/USD SHORT 1.2356 1.2361 08/15 13:55 -5
08/15 13:55 EUR/USD BUY 1.2361 1.2355 08/15 15:57 -6
08/15 17:13 GBP/USD BUY 1.8097 1.8116 08/15 18:57 19
Daily results on Matsys T: +292 pips
- Mensagens: 94
- Registado: 21/7/2005 11:36
- Localização: Europe
Dynamic Pivots
EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/CHF
Average True Range High Band
1.2451 1.8165 1.2617
Matsys Resistance
1.2409 1.8118 1.2576
Pivot Point
1.2361 1.8076 1.2511
Matsys Support
1.2348 1.8033 1.2488
Average True Range Low Band
1.2311 1.7988 1.2444
Reversal Triggers - MACD Optimizer
MACD - slow-fast-smooth
EUR/USD
07-03-06
GBP/USD
10-08-12
USD/CHF
09-07-04
EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/CHF
Average True Range High Band
1.2451 1.8165 1.2617
Matsys Resistance
1.2409 1.8118 1.2576
Pivot Point
1.2361 1.8076 1.2511
Matsys Support
1.2348 1.8033 1.2488
Average True Range Low Band
1.2311 1.7988 1.2444
Reversal Triggers - MACD Optimizer
MACD - slow-fast-smooth
EUR/USD
07-03-06
GBP/USD
10-08-12
USD/CHF
09-07-04
Um abraço,
JAOliveira
JAOliveira
-
- Mensagens: 231
- Registado: 14/2/2005 2:19
- Localização: Guimarães
Into Europe and further stabs
Support at 1.2450 based the decline yesterday and overnight bids at the
price continued to hold the focus. Into Europe and further stabs lower
have been noted but with the USD looking resolute ahead of the trade
data the Franc has not managed to make any significant headway. Talk is
of buyers lined up back to 1.2400 with decent stops below, while offers
are seen up at 1.2470/75. US data today will be key to deriving the
short-term direction going into the weekend as US structural issues are
back on the agenda. Thus the trade data (12:30 GMT) will be scrutinized
for reasons to sell the USD. A number close to USD57/58Bn is the
current consensus compared with the previous USD55.35Bn number. Any
number below USD55Bn will have [USD/CHF] looking to bounce with 1.2500
offers likely to initially prove a stalling point. Above, 1.2620 is key
to any US unit reversal as it is a double-day high (Aug 9th/10th) and
the 38.2% fibo of the 1.3060 to 1.2435 move also resides at 1.2622. On
the M&A front Swiss private bank Julius Baer today announced that it
needs foreign "acquisitions" to become a leading Swss private
institution.
Support at 1.2450 based the decline yesterday and overnight bids at the
price continued to hold the focus. Into Europe and further stabs lower
have been noted but with the USD looking resolute ahead of the trade
data the Franc has not managed to make any significant headway. Talk is
of buyers lined up back to 1.2400 with decent stops below, while offers
are seen up at 1.2470/75. US data today will be key to deriving the
short-term direction going into the weekend as US structural issues are
back on the agenda. Thus the trade data (12:30 GMT) will be scrutinized
for reasons to sell the USD. A number close to USD57/58Bn is the
current consensus compared with the previous USD55.35Bn number. Any
number below USD55Bn will have [USD/CHF] looking to bounce with 1.2500
offers likely to initially prove a stalling point. Above, 1.2620 is key
to any US unit reversal as it is a double-day high (Aug 9th/10th) and
the 38.2% fibo of the 1.3060 to 1.2435 move also resides at 1.2622. On
the M&A front Swiss private bank Julius Baer today announced that it
needs foreign "acquisitions" to become a leading Swss private
institution.
- Mensagens: 94
- Registado: 21/7/2005 11:36
- Localização: Europe
Daily Comment
Thu 11 Aug 2005 Evening (gmt)
Correction or Trend?
The euro turned on a steeper upward slope yesterday afternoon. Was
this in anticipation of negative news for the greenbag - retail sales
today, trade unbalance, consumer confidence, etc, tomorrow?
Expectations about these data probably accelerated the retracement
which has been with us for more than a month now. The upward momentum
was steady, but it lacked the bursts which we like to see to make
Matsys-T hold the positions. Matsys-T triggers on level breakthrough,
but if the breakthrough is not confirmed within a certain time,
safety mechanisms take effect to limit losses. This happend several
times in the past 24 hours resulting in premature closings of the
positions, and all we got for the effort was a few measly pips. We
will work on tuning Matsys-T to give more slack, but first we would
like to see the upward movements of the euro confirmed as a trend.
Three daily closes above 1.2500 -- the 50% level in the retracement --
might do it. However, if the trend is not confirmed, Elliot Wawe
soothsayers will call this the fourth wave, and they will expect the
fifth wave to hit rock bottom. We are not fortune tellers, but we
don't believe that is a likely scenario.
Thu 11 Aug 2005 Evening (gmt)
Correction or Trend?
The euro turned on a steeper upward slope yesterday afternoon. Was
this in anticipation of negative news for the greenbag - retail sales
today, trade unbalance, consumer confidence, etc, tomorrow?
Expectations about these data probably accelerated the retracement
which has been with us for more than a month now. The upward momentum
was steady, but it lacked the bursts which we like to see to make
Matsys-T hold the positions. Matsys-T triggers on level breakthrough,
but if the breakthrough is not confirmed within a certain time,
safety mechanisms take effect to limit losses. This happend several
times in the past 24 hours resulting in premature closings of the
positions, and all we got for the effort was a few measly pips. We
will work on tuning Matsys-T to give more slack, but first we would
like to see the upward movements of the euro confirmed as a trend.
Three daily closes above 1.2500 -- the 50% level in the retracement --
might do it. However, if the trend is not confirmed, Elliot Wawe
soothsayers will call this the fourth wave, and they will expect the
fifth wave to hit rock bottom. We are not fortune tellers, but we
don't believe that is a likely scenario.
- Mensagens: 94
- Registado: 21/7/2005 11:36
- Localização: Europe
EMA Opt system , Real time (Test ) 8/11/05
PAIRS EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/CHF
SIGNALS 5-16 9-21 10-18
MACD Optimizer, Real time 8/11/05
PAIRS EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/CHF
SIGNALS 5-11-5 8-7-3 9-12-7
DYNAMIC PIVOTS, Real time 8/11/05
PAIRS ATR LB MS PIVOT MR AT HB
EUR/USD 12377 12406 12441 12504 12559
GBP/USD 18031 18065 18178 18227 18261
USD/CHF 12345 12371 12413 12493 12577
SHORT TERM BREAK POINTS 8/11/05
PAIRS SUPPORT BREAK POINTS RESISTANCE BREAK POINTS
EUR/USD 12411 12504
GBP/USD 18031 18227
USD/CHF 12371 12512
PAIRS EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/CHF
SIGNALS 5-16 9-21 10-18
MACD Optimizer, Real time 8/11/05
PAIRS EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/CHF
SIGNALS 5-11-5 8-7-3 9-12-7
DYNAMIC PIVOTS, Real time 8/11/05
PAIRS ATR LB MS PIVOT MR AT HB
EUR/USD 12377 12406 12441 12504 12559
GBP/USD 18031 18065 18178 18227 18261
USD/CHF 12345 12371 12413 12493 12577
SHORT TERM BREAK POINTS 8/11/05
PAIRS SUPPORT BREAK POINTS RESISTANCE BREAK POINTS
EUR/USD 12411 12504
GBP/USD 18031 18227
USD/CHF 12371 12512
- Mensagens: 94
- Registado: 21/7/2005 11:36
- Localização: Europe
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