Como se combate o populismo? "Com eleições", responde Fukuyama

[Jameson]

Bulls wish on an evening doji star
Commentary: Will Google's dip be enough for cynics?

By Tomi Kilgore, MarketWatch
Last Update: 10:59 AM ET July 25, 2005


NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- "Buy on dips" -- the famous last words of a cynical bull.



What happens too often is that the stock never dips, and when the frustrated holdout finally pulls the trigger, it ends up being the top as they join the final panic buying or follow the too-obvious buy signal.

Or, the stock starts pulling back, and the more it falls, the cynical bull decides to wait to try to get the stock even cheaper. But a stock in strong uptrend will not fall all the way back to support; if it does, you many not want to own it anymore.

Therefore, the cynic misses the rebound, or ends up buying the stock when everyone else has decided to bail out and it keeps going lower.

An even more classic bullish trader's mistake is that since they couldn't buy it on the way up, they decide instead to sell when the stock starts to consolidate, and just before the rally accelerates again.

Sound familiar? It should, because we've all been hurt by the same trap, and are likely to be hurt again.

And that's why a stock like Google (GOOG: news, chart, profile) keeps going up -- not because you can buy it, but because you can't. Many like the company and its prospects, but say they would never make the mistake of buying a stock that already has a price-to-earnings ratio well north of 100.

Yet others like the stock so much that even after it closed at its highest level ever, they are still willing to slap a seemingly ridiculous $400 price target on it. Read more.

That same day, Google ironically fell after a strong quarterly report and confirmed a short-term negative chart pattern at the same time.

Dip buyers may have finally gotten their wish, as Google's stock created last Friday a short-term pattern that might foreshadow a change in trend.

Will they finally get their chance to buy or will they miss their opportunity again as the stock suddenly turns back up?

There is also the possibility that the stock has reached its high, and the sell-off will go a lot farther than expected and hurt a lot of cynics on the way.

Will those who knew the stock was too expensive use the negative chart pattern to sell (and perhaps go short) and end up getting hurt later?

To answer those questions, maybe we should ask the analyst that placed the $400 target on Google whether they heard a thud or not.

Based on the "evening doji star" in the stock's chart and the "negative divergence" in some other technical indicators, I would believe that aggressive dip buyers are likely to get hurt. But given the strength of the stock, it's way too early to call an end to the uptrend, and real cynical bulls will probably miss the next leg up.

Google's evening doji star

Google's reversal pattern consists of Wednesday's (July 20), tall candlestick pattern -- where the close ($312) is well above the open ($305.57). This suggests bulls were in control from the start of the session to the end.



On Thursday (July 21), the stock leapt higher at the open ($314.05), and created a small black body by closing ($313.94) just slightly below its open (note the close is still above Wednesday's close). Bulls maintained control throughout the day, but they were either unable to progress, or satisfied with what they accomplished.

The body is so small it could even be considered a doji candlestick (which translates from the Japanese as "at the same time." This would make it an even stronger reversal signal, as it suggests indecision by bulls, or that supply has met the equilibrium point with demand. Read more about dojis.

Either way, this is a sign warning that bulls have become vulnerable, and may have to retreat for a while to find a place to regenerate.

The stock dropped sharply ($11.54, or 3.7%) on Friday to confirm bulls had tired, and bears had taken advantage of the opportunity by grabbing the initiative.

This may not come as a total surprise to many charts watchers, as one of the stock's underlying mathematical technicals -- an indicator derived from complex calculations of a series of recent numbers relative to past numbers -- have been declining since early-June while the stock has been rising.

For example, the relative strength index, which attempts to measure a stock's recent performance relative to its past, topped out above 91 on June 1 when the stock closed at $288. The RSI fell to 75.42 on June 27 even as the stock rose to $304.10 and fell again to 71.61 on July 21, when the stock closed at its all-time high of $313.94.

This is referred to as negative divergence. While this condition can last over long periods of time before the turn actually comes, it carries a bit more weight when other technical indicators are flashing warning signs as well.

In the event of a pullback, there should be some minor support at the July 7 low of $288.51. There should be stronger buying interest at the June 15 low of $267.43, which also coincides with the gap in the charts between the May 27 high of $266.05 and the May 28 low of $269.37.

Given the appearance of the evening doji star during a time of negative divergence, the first support level can be expected to be tested. The second support, however, may be approached but not broken.

But don't make the classic mistake of selling. The long-term trend is still strongly up, so it could turn up at anytime.

Trend lines

There may be no bell that rings when a stock or the market has reached its high or hit its bottom, but there is often a loud thud. Unfortunately, the only way to hear it is to buy the top or sell the bottom.

You can't be afraid to buy the high (or sell the low). Go into it thinking you will, so when you do, and you hear the sound of a heavy door closing (and you might even feel a cold wind at your feet), then you are already ahead of the game; you know something that others don't.

You can then quickly flip you position, and ride the move down.

Investing is not about buying low and selling high, it's about making money. If you have to buy high and sell higher, then that's what you do.

Identifying and riding a trend is one of the keys to making money. And you don't have to ride it from the start all the way to the end to be successful; you can jump on and off as you please along the way.

[Ertai]

Novidades no afterhours..

Yahoo, Intel, Google, entre outros a descerem..

Os resultados da Yahoo e Intel foram bons mas pelos vistos os investidores já começaram a descarregar as boas notícias

Google a cotar ligeiramente abaixo dos $300 no After

[Ertai]

Actualização.. google a atacar novos máximos.. continua boa a todos os prazos..

[Ertai]

Tenho uma pequena posição longa na Google e a razão para isso está bastante evidente no gráfico..

A LT ascendente desde Março ainda é bastante válida e uma vez que está neste momento nos $300, está numa boa situação de risk/reward se usarmos os stops devidos..

A situação nos índices já não será assim tão Bullish e atenção dia 21 de Julho (5ªfeira) temos earnings..

[AC]

era ou não era uma nova força para subir ????

[GAB]

Neste momento, independentemente do aspecto grafico penso que para uma entrada "LONGO" está com um RISCO que para mim é elevadissimo.
Prefiro não tomar decisão a correr tal RISCO.
(hesitei entrada nos 200usd não será agora que entro...)

Graficamente até que parece que probabilidade possa ser mais de evoluir positivamente.(2,75 parece ser "base"triangular de C_Prazo.)A probabilidade de subida parece "interessante" e talvez como dizem os entendidos os 350usd seja uma possibilidade.

AS acções caras costumam ser boas, costumam atrair mais e mais investidores até se "esgotar" o "sentimento".

[vmerck]

nessa data vai cair...... é a minha opinião visto o mercado ja ter incorporado muitos resultados futuros

[maya]

Base de lançamento!?

Não queres explicar melhor!?

O que eu vejo tecnicamente:
1- Possibilidade de um bump and return porque passou uma lt ascendente 35% para 50%... (no curto prazo).

Todavia este não é puro, na verdade os fundamentais devem ser tão bons que não tivemos o return...

Assim e depois desta primeira caminhada temos duas hipóteses...
1- um triangulo descendente.. È visivel um linha de suporte. (as velas não são muito famosas para uma subida.. o volume tem diminuido... Vamos ver para onde e como é que o triangulo quebra. (se fosse uma situação normal quebraria para baixo. (todavia os triangulos descendentes por regra são figuras de continuação (surgem em Lts descendentes).. e aqui seria de inversão)

2- Este triangulo pode também estar a fazer um penante Bullish. De facto é bem capaz....(E portanto deverá ser a isto que te referes como "base de lançamento"!?)

Em definitivo qualquer decisão está dependente da próxima vela... Mas das 3 uma...
1- Confirma-se o Penante bullis e da mais um saltinho para cima.
2- Confirma-se o triangulo descendente puro.. e vamos para baixo.
2- A queda segue o padrão do b&r... se bem que já não seja puro, pois a queda teria de ter sido muito rápida...

Não sei.

[AC]

base de lançamento ?