Como se combate o populismo? "Com eleições", responde Fukuyama

[ONBOLSA-X]

no mercado portugues nao sei , nao tou dentro das regras deste mercado mas nos states uma coisa te garanto , voce pode ter uma ordem posta ha 3 meses e posso garantir-lhe que voce nao tem prioridade nenhuma relativamente a market makers e members do floor , voce pode ficar em 1º da lista mas do publico mas os institucionais estao 1º que voce mesmo que voce tenha la a ordem ha 3 meses e eles ponham as ordens ha 10 minutos atrás .

membros e institucionais têm de ter vantagens sobre o publico todo ou pensa que eles pagam 1 milhao de dollars por um Seat so porque é bonito ? voce la está sempre em ultimo . quem faz eminis ve bem isso , voce é sempre o ultimo a ser filled . primeiro estao eles .


em relaçao a daytrading , em Portugal Psi esqueçam isso , pelo menos posiçao semanal . o day trader perde no tempo tanto ca como la .

este facto está mais que reportado ao longo de 30 anos em alguns livros bons que falam sobre a verdade dos mercados


ONBOLSA-X

[heterocedastico]

Sim sim. A ideia é será ter ordens metidas há algum tempo de forma a que quando os preço se aproximarem desses valores essas ordens tenham prioridade de execução.

[correia]

"aproveitar o príncipio da prioridade tempo na negociação"

Hetero, pode explicar este conceito melhor p.f.?
Obrigado

[heterocedastico]

Desculpa GAB, mas só agora vi a tua resposta...

Ainda não sei, estou em fase de estudo...

A ideia seria fazer trades de poucos cêntimos em títulos < 2 euros, tentando aproveitar o príncipio da prioridade tempo na negociação... ex: edp, bcp, son, ...

1 abraço

[GAB]

Hetero....

Para si quais os mercados favoraveis(activos favoraveis) para daytrading, excluindo USA claro.

No psi20, quais os activos?


aplicaria tudo o dito nos artigos na PTC, o que incluiria ou punha de parte em relaçao a PTC?

[GAB]

nice hetero...

[heterocedastico]

Smart money management doesn't just involve risking the right amount on every trade (covered in the risk management section), it also involves managing a winning trade from start to finish. This is an important part of any good trading methodology that is often overlooked by beginning and expert traders alike.

"What do I do after I enter a trade and it begins to make money?", is a question that is frequently asked by my students. You hear so-called experts oftenly make general comments such as "Don't let a winning trade turn into a loss," or "You'll never go broke taking a profit." These tidbits belong in the same trash can as "The trend is your friend" and other similar remarks. This general pieces of advice can do more harm than good because of their nature - THEY ARE TOO GENERAL!!! A beginning trader cannot be left filling in the blanks. Everything must be defined. That is why a complete trading strategy must include specifically how winning trades will be managed until the position is closed. The basic diagram below was provided to illustrate, in a funny way, what typically happens to traders that don't have a smart trade management plan in place. I have included the trader's thoughts (in blue) on the diagram as the trade progresses (in this example, I assumed that the trader is not completely clueless and at least has a stop loss in place. In reality, if the trader did not use a stop loss, it could have gotten a lot nastier and funnier).



Even though the example about is very basic, it does illustrate the importance of protecting existing profits by raising your stops. When the trade became profitable, instead of having left the stop at 1% below the initial entry point, the trader should have raised the stop. Logical points to have raised the stop on parts of the position could have been a certain amount above the initial entry point, below the point corresponding to thought number 4, below the point corresponding to thought number 5, and so on and so forth. Even though I am oversimplifying the management of these stop losses, this example demonstrates the importance of using a logical money management technique to handle winning trades. Since the goal of every day trader should be to protect his trading capital, protecting profits becomes just as important as limiting losses. If you think about it, protecting profits is a way to limit losses as well. When a trader is in a winning trade, the amount of unrealized profit becomes part of the total value of his account. Consequently, protecting profits through smart money management is equivalent to conserving the value of the trading account.

Smart money management should be a part of every trading strategy and it is something that I really stress when training my students.

in http://www.geocities.com/daytradingtutor/index.html

[heterocedastico]

Not risking too much money on any given trade is essential to succeeding as a day trader. Unfortunately, when most people start day trading, they do not think about the risk that they are taking - only about the potential rewards. Every day trading strategy must take into consideration the maximum percentage of the total trading capital that should be risked in any one transaction. In fact, a day trader's ability to limit his losses is just as important (or even more important) as his success in managing winning trades. Think about it. If a trader losses a small amount on every transaction, won't he stay in the game a lot longer? Taking huge losses is one of the primary reasons why so many traders don't survive in this business. Why do traders commit financial suicide this way, you may ask? If all big losses start small, shouldn't it be easy to prevent a small loss from becoming unmanageable? The answer is "YES."

Limiting losses when day trading involves a lot of common sense. To begin with, no trader should risk more than 2 to 5% of his trading capital on any given trade. Why? If a trader sticks to a 1% to 2% maximum loss rule, his chances of succeeding are greatly increased because it will take many consecutive losses to wipe him out and he will have more opportunities to make winning trades. If a trader would be trading a $10,000 account, he should not lose more than $100 to $200 (1% to 2%) on every position taken. Using the same reasoning, if we are dealing with a trading account that's $100,000 in size, the maximum allowable losses can be increased to $1,000 or $2,000 per trade. Based on these percentages and on the amount the price can move against the trader (determined from the charts), he can calculate the maximum size his position should have. This becomes much clearer with an example:

Position Sizing Example using Currencies (to learn more about currencies read this section)

Assume that an investor can trade a lot of 100,000 USD with a 2,000 USD deposit (50 to 1 leverage) and that he has $10,000 in an account. With this account size, he can trade a maximum of 5 lots (5 x 2000 margin deposit = 10,000), but is this a wise thing to do? Let's look into this a little further. Let's say that based on his trading strategy, the day trader analyzes the chart and determines that in order for him to take a long position with a potential reward of $800 per lot, he must be willing to lose $200 per lot. He realizes that if he takes a 5-lot position and all goes well, he could have a gain of $4000 or 40% (5 lots x $800 per lot = $4,000). Using a position size of 5 lots would also require that he be willing to lose $1,000 (5 lots x $200 per lot = $1,000). Should he take the trade? Not with 5 lots!!! A loss of $1,000 represents 10% of his trading capital!!! How long will anyone be in business after a few consecutive 10% loses? In this example, his maximum position size should only be one lot. With one lot, he would be risking $200 (2% of his account size) to make $800 (8% return). While it might be tempting to try to make the $4,000 in one trade, it is not a smart thing to do so. Trading is all about your probability of survival. To survive, you cannot risk more than you should. Risking too much is not smart money management.

*In general, day traders with less than $10,000 should consider trading with a mini account. A forex mini account can be opened with as little as a few hundred bucks.

Position Sizing Example using Stocks (remember that to day trade stocks you need at least $25,000 in your account by law, so I will use an account size of $30,000 in the example below)

Assume that an investor has a $30,000 account to day trade stocks. He wants to trade Intel (INTC) stock, which is at $30 a share. Based on his strategy, he determines that the stock can appreciate $1.00 during the day, but to take advantage of the appreciation, he must risk $0.50. Since he has an intraday margin of 25% (4 to 1 leverage) he can take a $120,000 maximum position in INTC with his $30,000 (4 x 30,000 = 120,000). Should he do it? Let's do the numbers. With $120,000, the trader can buy 4,000 shares of INTC (120,000 / 30 = 4,000). If INTC moves up 1 point, the trader gains $4,000. If it drops $0.50 (his stop loss), he loses 2,000. A two thousand dollar loss represents 6.7% of his trading capital - much too big a risk for him to take. Consequently, a 4000-share INTC position is too large for his account size. Based on a 1% ($300) maximum loss, the day trader should not buy more than 600 Intel shares (300 / 0.50 = 600). Based on a 2% ($600) risk, the maximum trade size becomes 1200 shares.

Risk in day trading (or in any other form of speculation) must be controlled. One effective way of managing risk in trading is by not taking on a position larger than an account of a given size could handle. While some authors and "experts" have complicated ways of determining position size, these methods tend to confuse traders and slow them down. The 1 to 2% rule will keep traders out of trouble and it is simple to apply. It is common sense more than anything else. Don't become another day trading statistic - limit your losses all the time with protective stop orders!!! Read more about stop orders in the day trading basics section.

Read about the importance of using a specific strategy in trading.

[heterocedastico]

In day trading, a stop loss is a must. Before entering a trade, the trader must know precisely when he is getting out if the trade goes against him. For example, if a currency trading strategy calls for a stop loss to be placed below the low of the previous 30-minute bar on a long position, it must be done. A trader has to be very disciplined about this.

When exiting a trade with a loss depends on an indicator reaching a certain value or condition, the stop loss order cannot be placed right after the trade is entered. For example, in the basic explanation of the moving average crossover strategy, a long trade is entered when the short-term moving average crosses over the long-term moving average and it is exited and reversed (short trade established) when the short-term moving average crosses below the long-term one. Consequently, in a strategy like this a trader has to wait for a crossover before exiting a position. There are some other strategies where the exit point from a losing trade is a fixed amount or is based on a preexisting level on the chart. These are the strategies that I like teaching my students the most because the stops can be placed right after the trade is entered. For example, if I was using a day trading strategy where the exit point for a long trade due to a loss was one cent below the low of the previous 15-minute candle, then I could place a stop loss order right after I would enter the trade. Let's say that I bought 500 shares of XYZ at $25.20 and that the low of the previous 15-minute candle was 25.05. Right after buying the 500 shares I would instantly place a sell stop order at 25.04 (one cent below the low of the previous 15-minute candle). Thus, my stop would be in place at 25.04 and if the stock came down, I will exit at a price near 25.04. The reason why I like this type of strategy is because by forcing himself to place a stop loss order every time after entering a trade, a trader will be building discipline and learning to treat losses just like gains (becoming emotionally detached from his trades). By physically placing the stop, a trader won't run the risk of holding a losing position too long due to the use of discretion or because of fear.

A successful strategy must be very clear on where stops must be placed to limit a loss because even day traders using a mediocre strategy can be successful if they learn proper stop loss placement techniques. Since trading capital is the lifeblood of a day trader, he must protect every ounce it. The best way to do this is by knowing before entering where his exit point will be. Not only must the trading strategy provide the trader an entry with a higher probability of making money, but also with strategic and specific points to limit losses. These stops should keep the losses from bad trades at a manageable level and also be flexible enough to give winning trades room to grow.

In our day trading risk management section you will learn how much you can risk on every trade and how big your trading positions should be.

[heterocedastico]

A day trading strategy must include entry and exit signals; in other words, when to get into a position and when to get out of it. The entry signal has to be specific and must include the conditions that must be met in order to enter a trade. For example, when Condition A, B, C, ... , etc. are met, enter the trade. These conditions must be as objective as possible. For example, specific conditions can be "buy or sell when the stock breaks the highest price of the previous 30 minutes or the lowest price of the prior 60 minutes respectively" or "buy when the price of a currency goes 15 pips above its 19-period moving average." These are quantifiable events. They can be measured. The condition, "buy when the price of the stock is trending up," is not specific enough. It does not specify what "trending up" means. How could you trade based on a signal that you don't know exactly what it means? Generalities like these are what cause traders to lose money.

After the day trading system being used generates an entry signal and a position is taken, the exit conditions also have to be known; in other words, when the position will be closed. The closing of the position can either be when the desired profit is realized or when the maximum allowable loss is reached (in the section on placing stops, I discuss this in greater detail). The strategy has to define exactly when the trader will realize his profit and look for another trade. If the profit condition is met, the day trader MUST exit. He cannot use discretion and try to guess if the profit will be more or less than usual - he MUST follow his own rules!!! To minimize the probability of getting out of a winning position too early, the strategy can use multiple exit signals for different parts of the whole position; for example, instead of selling the 300,000 Euro-U.S. Dollar position all at once, the trader can sell one lot (100,000) at a time based on specific conditions as the trade progresses. I frequently teach my students how to exit a winning position in multiple parts.

Even though it will be great if every trade is successful, the trader has to be prepared for a reality of trading: losing. Consequently, the day trader must know exactly when to exit a trade goes against him. A complete system must pinpoint where on the chart the trader must take his loss. This could be when the price of a stock or currency breaks a technical support or resistance level on the chart (the high or low price during a period of time - the last day, the last 10 minutes, the last hour, etc.), when an indicator reaches an extreme value, or a combination of conditions. Again, these signals have to be quantifiable and not subjective ("when I see the price starting to stall" is not a good enough signal). BEFORE the trader even enters a trade, he must know where the exit point will be. This is essential to build trading discipline and to make sure that the trader will reduce his overall risk. This is discussed in more detail in the stop loss section.

If a trader gets a buy signal based on his strategy, but the logical place to limit his loss on the chart represents a loss that is too big for his account, he should not enter the trade. Thus, he must make sure that every trade that he takes is within the maximum allowable loss according to his system. Controlling the amount of risk that he takes is of paramount importance to his trading survival. This is discussed in greater deatil in the trading and risk management section.

How a trader manages his position after entering a trade is explained in the smart money management section.

[heterocedastico]

A well-defined strategy is essential in day trading. Without a specific system, traders are like soldiers without a mission. The strategy has to specify when to get in and when to get out of a position. Every step that a trader must take has to be spelled out because generalities in day trading are a disaster waiting to happen (pardon the cliché).

Many of my students are surprised when they hear statistics that claim that 70 to 80% of day traders lose money. They incorrectly conclude that day trading is a loser's game. Day trading is a BUSINESS, PERIOD!!! - not a game. It is no different than the many small businesses that are formed every year. Statistics say that about 80% of new businesses go bankrupt in their first two years of existence. Why is this? - because most new entrepreneurs are not properly equipped to run the operations they start. Whether it is due to a lack of enough practical experience or a lack of understanding of the risks and inner workings of the business, many are not prepared to succeed. They start a business out of impulse, thinking only about the great potential rewards that lie ahead. Since day trading is a business too, most people that start doing it also fail to prepare themselves properly before beginning. Without learning and practicing the proper techniques and methodologies required to succeed as a day trader, most day traders simply become another small business statistic.

So what kind of strategy do I need to learn to day trade, you ask? There are many out there. You are constantly being bombarded by internet, TV, and print advertising from gurus that want to sell you their "secret" trading system. Since most people are looking for shortcuts ("secrets") all the time, they wind up buying these magical systems or courses, sometimes spending thousands of dollars in the process. Eventually, they find out the hard way that these secret methods don't work and give up day trading altogether. The reality is that there are many different strategies that day traders can use that might work. What is important is that the strategy is well defined and is as objective as possible; in other words "if this specific condition happens, then take this specific action (OBJECTIVE)," rather than, "analyze the market and get a feel for it before placing your order (SUBJECTIVE)" or, "based on your interpretation of what Greenspan (or some other important person) says about the economy, place your order (SUBJECTIVE)." The great majority of people that use a subjective strategy, wind up making the wrong decision or staying in a trade too long because they reach a "logical" conclusion, but the market acts "illogical." Many of these "logical" strategy traders try to determine where the market is going, instead of reacting to what the market IS doing [click here to see an example of a simple moving average crossover strategy].

What has to be defined in order to have a complete trading strategy? (click on the individual sections to see more information)

Entry and Exit Signal
Stop Loss Placement
Smart Money Management
Remember that these three sections of a strategy have to be as specific as possible and they have to make sense. A day trader cannot be thinking in the middle of a trade, "Where will I place my stops this time?" or "I wonder if I should be buying or selling now?" This has to be clearly defined by the system being used so that the day trader is simply following a set of conditions in any given market situation. When this is accomplished, every new position that the trader enters or exits builds the discipline he needs to succeed.

Mastery of the day trading strategy will come over time, as the trader learns to apply it with precision and consistency. That is why it is also important that the strategy be simple enough to apply without having a Ph.D. from MIT. When the strategy has too many indicators and conditions, the day trader can be easily confused, and a confused trader has almost no chance of executing successful trades. When I train my students, I equip them with strategies that are powerful, but easy to apply. The mentorship or coaching process also involves making sure that traders are applying all the steps of the strategy correctly. Without this coaching process many traders tend to shift their style and start changing the strategy or abandon it altogether before they have even mastered it - a very common and costly mistake. Only highly experienced day traders can start experimenting with strategy modifications, but the great majority of traders should execute the strategies they learn without any modifications (like a soldier following orders - ATTENTION!!!).

In the risk management section you will learn more about how much money to risk on each trade and how big your positions should be (another skill essential in day trading).

[heterocedastico]

Para as velhas raposas do daytrading...

Recorrendo à AT que estratégias utilizam?
Que escala temporal utilizam para os gráficos?
Utilizam mais linhas de tendência, suportes e resistências ou indicadores técnicos?
Que indicadores utilizam?
Recorrendo à análise de cofres que estratégias utilizam?

Obrigado