Como se combate o populismo? "Com eleições", responde Fukuyama

[__JB__]

Muito interessante Ulisses, esta notícia da suspensão da regra do up-tick !

As vendas do lado curto podem fazer-se agora pressionando directamente a procura, ao contrário do que vinha sendo normal até aqui, passando a ser uma venda como qualquer outra.

A partir de segunda feira "shortar" o mercado vai ser muito mais fácil e rápido e já não se aguarda que seja o mercado a comprar as acções que estão no sistema para venda curta á espera do up-tick. Vai poder-se descarregar no mercado a toda a força todos os curtos que se quiser !

O resultado provável irá ser de quedas muito mais rápidas e consequentes "short covering" também rápidos, contribuindo por esta via para um aumento da volatilidade ! A ver vamos os resultados, mas já deve haver muitos "Hedge Funds" a afirar a faca... !!!


Cumprimentos



JB

[Ulisses Pereira]

"Without Uptick Rule, Downside Will Rule"

By James J. Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
4/29/2005 9:04 AM EDT

"Just when you thought it couldn't get nastier for the "longs" out there, the people who just play from the long side, the SEC passes the Hedge Fund Relief Act, and it goes into effect Monday.

Oh, it's not called that. It is just the suspension of the "uptick rule." But it certainly will have that impact, for both the hedge funds and the market.

You probably aren't even aware of it. Most people don't even seem to think it is important. It's a two inch story at the bottom of page C-4 of The Wall Street Journal today. How fitting, though; just like a two-inch block of C4, the plastic explosive, this little note could take the market to kingdom come if used incorrectly. And it will be.

Here's the deal. Right now, when a company reports a bad quarter and you aren't long it, you have to wait to short until you get an uptick, or you can go into the put market and get a dealer to make a market in puts for you. He has to lay off his short himself, so it really doesn't matter; you can't get a good price and it is cumbersome.

So, often you just give up. Oh, Molson (TAP:NYSE - commentary - research) reported a bad quarter, eh? Well, I can't get an uptick, no one will pay me a higher price for it and the put market's too illiquid, so on to the next.

Not anymore. Starting Monday, hedge funds can sell shares short just like they sell them long: with reckless abandon. If I were back at my old hedge fund and this rule was suspended, I would have gone into Molson down 6 or 7 and blown it right down 10, sans uptick.

I know I would have done it because I know I can process this stuff faster than the longs. I was not alone. Most hedge funds can do it quicker than the longs can. No committees, either.

Starting Monday, you could see some real nasty things happen to companies that mess up. You will see them banged down harder and faster than you would ever believe.

The corollary is true, too, though. You will see some real squeezes upward because people will be much more reckless in what they short and when.

This rule change, of course, couldn't come at a worse time. The market's terrible. Longs are beleaguered, shorts are emboldened. I think it is fair to say that things are about to get a lot worse, a lot faster for the stocks of bad companies without the slowdown circuit breaker of the uptick rule. But the SEC, in its non-infinite wisdom, dreamed this little doozy up and all I can tell you is that you ain't seen nothing yet.

For me, personally, this rule is enough to make me want to get back into the hedge fund game. My stock in trade was to know what was a bad quarter faster than anyone on earth. I was king of that game. This new rule would have been a license for me to print money on the short side. Not that the SEC would know that kind of stuff, though. It's too busy worrying about the small stuff.

Oh well.

Get ready for some real volatility, which, of course, is just a code word for downside action! "

(in www.realmoney.com)