Como se combate o populismo? "Com eleições", responde Fukuyama

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Oil: A Bubble, Not a Spike?
BusinessWeek Online
Wednesday April 27, 8:26 am ET

While the rest of Wall Street just can't seem to get enough of the oil market, energy analyst Tim Evans isn't afraid to go against the tide. Evans, a senior analyst at IFR Energy Services, a division of Thomson Financial, thinks that the current run-up in oil prices is much like the Internet bubble of the late '90s. While other analysts are calling for crude to hit upward of $100 per barrel in the next few years, he believes the bubble will burst in the next several months, bringing prices back down into the upper-$20s range.

Evans recently spoke with BusinessWeek Online reporter June Kim about costly crude, what's behind it, and why rising prices will reverse course soon. Edited excerpts of the conversation follow:


Q: Where do you see oil going?

A: (Recently), we saw the highest level of commercial crude oil inventory in the U.S. since June, 2002. Then, we were trading in the range of $26 to $30 per barrel. The current physical fundamentals, not even projecting to a greater surplus down the road, are consistent with a $26 to $30 price.

We first got to $50 at the end of last September after Hurricane Ivan. We've got an all-time high price without a physical shortage.


Q: Then what's driving the uptick in prices?

A: We don't have a physical bull market, but we do have a financial bull market. The measure of the financial market is the open interest on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The futures market is 72% larger than it was 18 months ago. Over that same period, the physical market is maybe 5% larger. What you have on the financial side is a bunch of money being thrown at the energy futures market. It's just pulling in more and more cash. That's the side of the market where we have runaway demand, not on the physical side.

DOE (Energy Dept.) crude inventories have been rising since last September. If demand is outpacing supply, how can inventories rise?


Q: But there's a limited global supply and rising demand in the U.S. and China?

A: First, oil supplies are always finite, and oil reserves are always finite. That's not really headline news.

In terms of rate of growth, world oil demand grew last year by 3.4%. Yes, 3.4% was more yearly growth than we had seen in quite some time. (But) going back to the '50s and '60s, world oil demand during that era was growing an average of 9% per year. We didn't have oil-price shocks then.

Part of our fear really dates back from 1998 and 1999, when we had oil prices down at $12 per barrel. Those prices choked off investment in production capacity. That was the bust part of the cycle, and we're now in the boom part of the cycle. But it's still a cycle. The believers in the long-term steady march to $105 are basically making that it's not a boom-and-bust cycle anymore.


Q: Do you think $105 per barrel is probable?

A: We always say it can't be ruled out, but if we were to put a probability or expectation on it, I think...maybe there's a 5% chance that Saudi Arabia slides into the Red Sea and there's a run on oil supplies.

We have to get to $60 before we can get to $105. We haven't gotten to $60 yet.


Q: Do you consider this a bubble -- like the tech bubble of the late '90s?

A: I do. Some of the bullish analysis specifically warns people away from traditional methods of valuation. They'll say things like, "Inventory levels are no longer relevant, or a meaningful measure." Except that inventories levels are an objective measure. It's not a matter of opinion -- it's factual.


Q: Doesn't the psychology of market account for some of the run-up?

A: In the short run, it's perception that drives markets. In the longer run though, the physical supply and demand, the physical reality, ultimately determines what a sustainable equilibrium price is.


Q: When do you think oil will hit the $26 to $30 range?

A: The next two to three months are going to see oil prices fall hard. I think the market is teetering now. OPEC is still increasing production -- they increased quotas half a million barrels per day for April. And Saudi Arabia has allocated additional oil in its May sales program.

At the same time, second-quarter demand for crude oil tends to fall by something on the order of 2%. The market basically sees that drop because we're no longer heating the Northern Hemisphere. Right in front of us, we have supply that's still growing, demand that's going to step down, and inventories that are already at comfortable levels.

If we could just calm down enough to look at the inventory numbers, we actually have 6% more gasoline inventory than we did at this time last year, and we have 5.2% more stock of crude oil on average than the last five years. It's a high level of inventory as a cushion against possible supply disruption.

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Abaixo dos 52 dólares
Petróleo tomba quase 5% com subida nas reservas
O petróleo acelerou a tendência de queda no final da sessão e seguia a deslizar quase 5% em Londres e Nova Iorque, depois do Departamento de Energia dos EUA ter divulgado que os inventários de crude aumentaram para o valor mais elevado dos últimos 35 meses.
Ana Filipa Rego
arego@mediafin.pt


Brent em três meses

O petróleo acelerou a tendência de queda no final da sessão e seguia a deslizar quase 5% em Londres e Nova Iorque, depois do Departamento de Energia dos EUA ter divulgado que os inventários de crude aumentaram para o valor mais elevado dos últimos 35 meses.

O crude cotado em Nova Iorque deslizava 4,78% para os 51,61 dólares por barril, enquanto o «brent», transaccionado em Londres, perdia 4,47% até aos 51,72 dólares. As cotações estão agora cerca de 9% abaixo dos máximos históricos.

Os «stocks» de crude aumentaram em 5,4 milhões de barris por dia para os 324,4 milhões na semana que terminou dia 22 de Abril. Uma subida que ficou bastante acima do esperado pelos analistas consultados pela Bloomberg, que apontavam para um aumento em 650 mil barris.

As importações avançaram 12% para uma média de 10,9 milhões de barris por dia, o valor máximo desde Dezembro.

Estes dados afastam os receios com uma escassez de oferta de crude no mercado, numa altura em que se prevê um aumento da procura. Os «stocks» de gasolina desceram menos que o estimado.

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Oil Drops After U.S. Supplies Rise to Highest in Almost 3 Years ListenListen

April 27 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell almost $3 a barrel in New York, the biggest decline this year, after the Energy Department reported that U.S. inventories jumped to the highest since May 2002.

Stockpiles rose 5.4 million barrels to 324.4 million in the week ended April 22, the report showed. An increase of 650,000 barrels was expected, according to the median of forecasts by 14 analysts. Imports surged 12 percent to an average 10.9 million barrels a day, the highest since December. OPEC has boosted oil output this year to avoid reducing economic growth.

``Crude oil inventories are quite comfortable,'' said Bill O'Grady, director of fundamental futures research with A.G. Edwards & Sons Inc. in St. Louis. ``This is traditionally the week where you get the last build before the summer.''

Crude oil for June delivery fell $2.59, or 4.8 percent, to $51.61 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest close since April 18. It was the biggest decline since Dec. 27. Oil reached $58.28 on April 4, the highest since the contract began in 1983. Prices are up 38 percent from a year ago.

In London, the June Brent crude-oil futures contract fell $1.85, or 3.4 percent, to $52.29 a barrel on the International Petroleum Exchange. Brent futures touched a record $57.65 a barrel on April 4.

U.S. President George W. Bush, whose energy plan has been stalled in Congress for four years, said a ``fundamental problem'' facing the U.S. is that ``our supply of energy is not growing fast enough to meet the demand of our growing economy.'' Bush was speaking at a Small Business Administration conference in Washington today.

Global Demand

The International Energy Agency, an adviser to 26 industrialized nations, said on April 12 that global oil consumption will average 84.27 million barrels a day this year, 2.1 percent higher than in 2004.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries boosted daily output of crude oil by 700,000 barrels to 30.4 million this month, according to estimates released by PetroLogistics Ltd. yesterday. Output in Saudi Arabia probably rose to 9.6 million barrels from a revised 9.05 million a day for March, PetroLogistics, which assesses supply by tracking tankers, said.

Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Abdullah and Bush discussed oil policy at Bush's ranch in Crawford, Texas, on April 25. The kingdom wasn't asked for more oil because output is sufficient, Prince Abdullah's foreign policy adviser, Adel al-Jubeir, told reporters after the meeting.

OPEC, source of about 40 percent of the world's oil, is letting inventories rise during the second quarter before demand peaks in the fourth, reversing a policy of curbing output this time of year.

Change of Policy

``OPEC has decided to change their policy this year, and the reason they've done that is they're running out of spare capacity,'' Gareth Roberts, chief executive of Denbury Resources Inc., said in an interview on Bloomberg Television. ``Over the last five years they've had a policy of restricting stocks in the West, and they've had to change that.''

Denbury is an oil and natural-gas producer based in Plano, Texas.

``The problem is that there isn't enough refining capacity because a refinery hasn't been built here in 30 years,'' said Justin Fohsz, a broker at Starsupply Petroleum Inc. in Englewood, New Jersey. ``You have to sit on the oil and wait for it to work its way through the refining process.''

More Refineries

Bush said more oil refineries need to be built to handle increasing demand. Refineries should be developed on closed military facilities, he said. The government will ``simplify'' the paperwork and permits needed to build them, he said.

Merrill Lynch & Co. raised its forecast for West Texas Intermediate oil to $46 a barrel from $42.25, in an April 25 report. Merrill, the world's largest securities company, cited purchases by speculators and a possible shortage of spare production capacity in the event of any supply disruptions.

Energy has outperformed equities over the past year, encouraging speculators to buy oil futures. Long positions held by hedge funds and other speculators, or bets that oil prices will rise, exceeded shorts by 32,651 contracts in the week ended April 19, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Oil company profits have surged because of increased energy prices. ConocoPhillips, the largest U.S. oil refiner, said first- quarter profit jumped 80 percent to a record $2.91 billion. BP Plc, the world's second-largest publicly traded oil company, yesterday posted a 29 percent gain in first-quarter profit to a record.

Economic Growth Slows

High energy prices are slowing economic growth in the U.S., Europe and Japan. U.S. orders for durable goods unexpectedly fell 2.8 percent in March, the biggest decline in more than two years. Orders decreased to $194 billion after falling a revised 0.2 percent in February, the Commerce Department said today. The U.S. consumes about 25 percent of the world's oil.

Manufacturers' confidence in France, Europe's third-largest economy, dropped to the lowest in 18 months in April as rising oil costs hurt consumer spending and corporate profits. An index measuring sentiment among 2,000 manufacturers fell to 97, the lowest since October 2003, from 101 in March, Paris-based statistics office Insee said today.

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Ou seja, vai-se manter a tendência de queda nos preços do crude, que se tem verificado nas ultimas 2 semanas. Hj já desce mais de 3%. Já estamos na casa dos $51/Barril. Alans Greenspan tb ajudou.

Se se recordam, o máximo foi atingido nos $58, à verca de 4 semanas atrás. Ou seja, desceu perto de 15% até agora.

Não quero com isto de forma alguma insinuar que é estranha a manutenção do Gasóleo nos €92 em média no Cartel das 3 Gasolineiras Nacionais.

É certo que a variação de preço no consumidor final só acontece bastante tempo depois da variação do preço do barril nos mercados internacionais, mas estou expectante em relação à evolução do preço dos combustiveis neste jardim à beira mar plantado

Cumps
itisi100

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Oil Drops After U.S. Supplies Rise to Highest in Almost 3 Years
April 27 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell more than $1 a barrel in New York after the Energy Department reported that U.S. inventories jumped to the highest since May 2002.

Stockpiles rose 5.4 million barrels to 324.4 million in the week ended April 22, the report showed. An increase of 650,000 barrels was expected, according to the median of forecasts by 14 analysts. Imports surged 12 percent to an average 10.9 million barrels a day, the highest since December. OPEC has boosted oil output this year to avoid reducing economic growth.

``Crude oil inventories are quite comfortable,'' said Bill O'Grady, director of fundamental futures research with A.G. Edwards & Sons Inc. in St. Louis. ``This is traditionally the week where you get the last build before the summer.''

Crude oil for June delivery fell $1.50, or 2.8 percent, to $52.70 a barrel at 11:24 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures reached $58.28 on April 4, the highest since the contract began in 1983. Prices are up 40 percent from a year ago.

In London, the June Brent crude-oil futures contract fell $1.18, or 2.2 percent, to $52.96 a barrel on the International Petroleum Exchange. Brent futures are down 8.1 percent from the record $57.65 a barrel reached on April 4.

The Energy Department published its weekly report on petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m. in Washington.

OPEC Production

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries boosted daily output of crude oil by 700,000 barrels to 30.4 million this month, according to estimates released by PetroLogistics Ltd. yesterday. Output in Saudi Arabia probably rose to 9.6 million barrels from a revised 9.05 million a day for March, PetroLogistics, which assesses supply by tracking tankers, said.

Saudi Arabia is the world's biggest crude-oil exporter and was the biggest source of U.S. oil imports in February, Energy Department figures show.

Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Abdullah and President George W. Bush discussed oil policy at Bush's ranch in Crawford, Texas, on April 25. The kingdom wasn't asked for more oil because output is sufficient, Prince Abdullah's foreign policy adviser, Adel al- Jubeir, told reporters after the meeting.

Bush, whose energy plan has been stalled in Congress for four years, will propose using closed military bases as sites for oil refineries as one of five initiatives to expand U.S. energy production. He is scheduled to speak at 2 p.m. today at a Small Business Administration conference in Washington.

Not Enough Capacity

``The problem is that there isn't enough refining capacity because a refinery hasn't been built here in 30 years,'' said Justin Fohsz, a broker at Starsupply Petroleum Inc. in Englewood, New Jersey. ``You have to sit on the oil and wait for it to work its way through the refining process.''

High energy prices are slowing economic growth in the U.S., Europe and Japan. U.S. orders for durable goods unexpectedly fell 2.8 percent in March, the biggest decline in more than two years. Orders decreased to $194 billion after falling a revised 0.2 percent in February, the Commerce Department said today. The U.S. consumes about 25 percent of the world's oil.

Manufacturers' confidence in France, Europe's third-largest economy, dropped to the lowest in 18 months in April as rising oil costs hurt consumer spending and corporate profits. An index measuring sentiment among 2,000 manufacturers fell to 97, the lowest since October 2003, from 101 in March, Paris-based statistics office Insee said today.

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10:32am 04/27/05 JUNE CRUDE DOWN 1.8% AT $53.25 AFTER DATA

10:31am 04/27/05 DOE: CRUDE SUPPLIES UP 5.5 MILLION BARRELS (consensus +650K)
10:32am 04/27/05 DOE: GASOLINE SUPPLIES DOWN 300,000 BARRELS (consensus -1.0 mln)
10:32am 04/27/05 DOE: DISTILLATE FUEL SUPPLIES DOWN 1.4 MILLION BARRELS (consensus +100K)