Como se combate o populismo? "Com eleições", responde Fukuyama

[heterocedastico]

O melhor múltiplo para comparar empresas de crescimento é o PEG (=Forward PER/Tx Crescimento Resultados) e não o PER. Uma empresa pode ter um PER muito alto mas tendo em conta a sua tx cres. resultados pode não ser assim tão alto. Por exemplo comparando exactamente GOOG com YHOO, o GOOG tem um PER muito maior mas um PEG muito menor!

Cumprimentos

[nunofaustino]

O programa dele é mesmo louco (Mad money na CNBC após o fecho dos mercados americanos), mas vale a pena ouvir.

E é de aplaudir a firmeza com que o Cramer tem defendido estas duas acções nos últimos meses... e os argumentos dele tem sido bastante correctos...

Se os lucros da GOOG forem de 5USD por acção o PER é de 40... elevado? sim, mas para o crecimento que tanto a GOOG como a YHOO tem demonstrado...

Um abraço
Nuno

[Ulisses Pereira]

"Multiples Can't Hold Yahoo!, Google"

By James J. Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
4/20/2005 9:23 AM EDT

"Accelerated revenue growth. Who has it? I think I know of only two companies that can say, with any credibility, that they do: Yahoo! (YHOO:Nasdaq - commentary - research) and Google (GOOG:Nasdaq - commentary - research).

Yahoo! demonstrated last night what ARG is when it beat earnings expectations: the ability to project numbers that are stronger than current numbers even though the company is a much larger company!

That's terrific.

Google's got it, too. Let's rewind the tape back to before Jordan Rohan's really bad call saying that growth was slowing -- a call, by the way, that really and truly sent everyone scurrying in the wrong direction. The thesis of investing in Google and Yahoo! was simple. Unlike all the other tech companies out there, these companies could see much higher 2005 and 2006 numbers. For some reason, Rohan just said no to that.

He had enough credibility for us to believe that he would be right. He had enough credibility to throw everyone off their game, with the exception of Anthony Noto from Goldman Sachs.

Now, as we look at Yahoo! and soon Google, which most likely will be able to report that it can grow earnings to north of $5 next year, the issue will be what multiple to pay for breakout ARG. My answer: the highest multiple out there, which should be something north of 50, maybe even 60, times earnings.

I use those numbers simply as a benchmark to explain the thinking, because only these two companies truly are breaking out of the gravitational pull of multiples right now.

Last night on my television show, "Mad Money," I did the unthinkable. I suggested a 50 multiple on $5 earnings power and reiterated that I think Google can go to $250. I immediately had to answer to people in the control room about that so-called outrageous target.

Made me sick to my stomach. Sick to my stomach because I think we would have been there already if Rohan hadn't gotten this stuff all wrong.

And sick to my stomach because, alas, I was being conservative. "

(in www.realmoney.com)