Como se combate o populismo? "Com eleições", responde Fukuyama

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nesta 1/2 hora após saida das Minutas, os mercados americanos recuperaram fortemente dos mínimos, estando neste momento na linha de água.


Minutes: Fed less certain that inflation would be contained
By Greg Robb, MarketWatch
Last Update: 2:14 PM ET April 12, 2005

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Many members of the Federal Open Market Committee said they had become less certain about their benign inflation outlook at their meeting on March 22, according to a summary of the meeting released Tuesday.

Many members said that circumstances had changed dramatically from their previous meeting in late January, with signs of a stronger economy than previously perceived and risks that inflation pressures could be intensifying.

"While underlying inflation appeared to have moved up only modestly, and nearly all participants thought that core and total inflation going forward would be relatively low, they had become less certain of that outlook for the next few quarters," according to the minutes.

Many members said the risks of higher inflation were now "tilted a little to the upside."

The minutes show that the FOMC members carried on a lively debate about the nitty-gritty of the inflation situation.

Members worried about higher inflation pointed to recent elevated readings in the core personal consumption expenditure index, the PPI and the sustained high level of energy prices.

On the other hand, some Fed staff said they expected a strong gain in productivity, which would keep inflation well-contained.

The Fed's staff forecast was not alarmist.

The staff said they expected overall consumer price inflation to be lower this year than 2004 and for core inflation to be "boosted a bit by the effects of higher import and energy costs in the near term but still largely contained by continued strong growth in underlying labor productivity and remaining slack in resource markets."

The FOMC's focus on inflation is not surprising considering the statement they released after their March 22 meeting.
Read statement here:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs ... /20050322/

At the meeting, the FOMC unanimously raised its target for its key overnight lending rate by a quarter of one percentage point to 2.75 percent, and policymakers said they were worried "pressures on inflation have picked up in recent months and pricing power is more evident."

In an interesting debate about the wording of their post-meeting statement, some members of the FOMC pressed the case for ending the FOMC's pledge that the pace of future rate hikes could occur at a "measured pace."

These members saw higher odds that the pace of rate hikes would have to accelerate.

But the majority decided to keep the measured pace language. They argued that the wording did not preclude a faster pace of rate hikes or a pause and noted that long-term yields had risen despite the measured language.

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sairam dados também sobre o March Budget gap:

2:00pm 04/12/05 U.S. MARCH BUDGET GAP EXCEEDS $68B EXPECTED
2:00pm 04/12/05 U.S. 2005 BUDGET DEFICIT $294.6B YEAR-TO-DATE
2:00pm 04/12/05 U.S. MARCH BUDGET DEFICIT $71.2B VS. $72.9B YR AGO
2:00pm 04/12/05 U.S. MARCH RECEIPTS $148.7B VS. $132.4B YR AGO
2:00pm 04/12/05 U.S. MARCH OUTLAYS $220B VS. $205.3B YR AGO


U.S. March budget gap wider than expected at $71.2B

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch)-- The U.S. government spent $71.2 billion more in March than it collected, The Treasury Department said Tuesday.
Earlier, the Congressional Budget Office had estimated the budget deficit at $68 billion.
Receipts were up about 12% in March from the previous March, while outlays rose about 7%.
Halfway through fiscal 2005, the government deficit totaled $294.7 billion, down from $301.4 billion this time a year ago.
Year-to-date, individual income taxes are up 8.5% and corporate income taxes are up 48%.

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2:01pm 04/12/05 10-YR YIELD RISES TO 4.46% AFTER FOMC MINUTES

2:03pm 04/12/05 EURO AT $1.2868 VS $1.2885 BEFORE FOMC, BUDGET GAP NEWS

2:04pm 04/12/05 DOLLAR UNCHANGED AT 108.30 YEN AFTER FOMC, BUDGET GAP

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2:00pm 04/12/05 FOMC: FED STAFF FORECAST SEES CORE INFLATION CONTAINED
2:00pm 04/12/05 FOMC: 'MEASURED' HAD NOT STOPPED LONG TERM RATE RISE
2:00pm 04/12/05 FOMC: 'MEASURED' DOESN'T PRECLUDE FASTER PACE OR PAUSE
2:00pm 04/12/05 FOMC: SOME INTENSIFY CALL TO REMOVE 'MEASURED' WORDING
2:00pm 04/12/05 FOMC: SOME SAW HIGHER ODDS OF FASTER PACE OF RATE HIKES
2:00pm 04/12/05 FOMC: MANY MEMBERS SAW INFLATION RISKS TILTED TO UPSIDE
2:00pm 04/12/05 FOMC MINUTES: MEMBERS UNCERTAIN ABOUT INFLATION OUTLOOK


FOMC minutes: Members uncertain about inflation outlook

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Many members of the Federal Open Market Committee said they had become less certain about their benign inflation outlook at their meeting on March 22, according to a summary of the meeting released Tuesday. The economy looked stronger than it had at the start of the year and economic data showed that inflation could be intensifying. Some members of the FOMC pressed the case for ending the FOMC's pledge that the pace of future rate hikes could occur at a "measured pace." These members saw higher odds that the pace of rate hikes would accelerate. But the majority decided to keep the measured pace. They argued that the wording did not preclude a faster pace of rate hikes or a pause and noted that long-term yields had risen despite the measured language.