Como se combate o populismo? "Com eleições", responde Fukuyama

[pvk]

OPEC May Boost Oil-Output Quota in May, Third Quarter (Update2)

April 2 (Bloomberg) -- OPEC may boost its crude output quota by 500,000 barrels a day in May and add another half a million barrels in the third quarter in a bid to stop record oil prices from slowing economic growth, the group's president said.

``Prices should remain within a reasonable range to prevent a slowdown in economic growth,'' Sheikh Ahmad Fahd al-Sabah said in Kuwait City today at the Euro-Gulf Energy Forum. ``Because prices are at a record, we expect to resume discussions this coming week to add 500,000 barrels a day starting May.''

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, supplier of almost 40 percent of the world's crude, is pumping close to its limit to bring down crude prices that reached an all-time high of $57.70 a barrel in New York yesterday. High oil prices contributed to slowing job growth and faster inflation in the U.S. in March, signs that the economy may be slowing.

``Oil prices could reach $60 if the group doesn't calm the market and increase supply,'' said Sabah, who is also Kuwait's oil minister. Market fears of supply disruptions are driving up the oil price, he said.

OPEC states with quotas, all except Iraq, are now producing close to 28 million barrels a day, which is 500,000 barrels above the current output quota, Sabah said. The group has spare capacity of 2 million barrels a day and this will rise to 3 million barrels by the end of the year as members boost their production capabilities.

Effect on Growth

Crude prices of $55 a barrel have slowed economic growth in countries such as the U.S. and China, the world's largest oil consumers, said William Ramsay, deputy director of the International Energy Agency. The Paris-based agency advises 26 oil-importing countries on energy policy.

``Just because these countries continue to grow, doesn't mean oil price increases haven't affected them,'' Ramsay said today in an interview in Kuwait.

OPEC may raise its oil-output quota by 500,000 barrels a day in the third quarter and make further increases in the fourth quarter, Sabah said, without specifying the size of the potential fourth quarter increase.

The 11-member group agreed on March 16 to boost its official output quota by 500,000 barrels a day to 27.5 million barrels and pledged to add half a million barrels a day more as early as May, if prices rose and demand warranted more supply.

$105?

Saudi Arabia, the group's largest producer, has said it's prepared to raise output by 1.5 million barrels a day to its maximum capacity of 11 million barrels a day to meet any unexpected rise in demand.

Prices may touch $105 a barrel in the next several years as the market goes through a ``super spike'' period because of increasing demand, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said March 31. The company's upper forecast was $80 previously.

Rising prices are needed to ``meaningfully reduce energy consumption and recreate a spare capacity cushion,'' according to the report, which helped push oil prices.

The IEA is preparing a study on energy saving measures that oil-importers could implement in the transportation industry to lower fuel consumption as oil prices rise, Ramsay said.

Gasoline rallied to records yesterday as the summer driving season in the U.S. approaches. About 10 percent of the world's crude oil is used to make gasoline for U.S. motorists.

To contact the reporter on this story:
Dania Saadi in Kuwait on dsaadi2@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Chris Collins at collinsc@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: April 2, 2005 11:26 EST

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aqui fica a notícia de ontem comentando o report da Goldman:


Goldman sees oil price 'super spike'
But others are skeptical $105 forecast is reasonable
By Padraic Cassidy, MarketWatch
Last Update: 2:54 PM ET March 31, 2005

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Oil prices have entered the early stages of a multi-year period of trading in which economic growth and rising demand could push oil to $105 per barrel, enough to meaningfully reduce energy consumption, Goldman Sachs analysts said Thursday.

"We believe oil markets may have entered the early stages of what we have referred to as a "super spike" period -- a multi-year trading band of oil prices high enough to meaningfully reduce energy consumption and recreate a spare capacity cushion only after which will lower energy prices return," said analyst Arjun Murti.

Murti said he's surprised by the strength in oil demand and economic growth, notably in the United States and China, even after a year in which the oil price has traded in a $40 to $50 range.

Goldman's previous "spike" high for oil was $80 a barrel. The brokerage also raised spot forecasts for WTI spot oil - West Texas Intermediate spot oil, the benchmark crude that trades daily on the New York Mercantile Exchange -- to $50 for 2005 and $55 for 2006. Its previous forecasts were $41 in 2005 and $40 in 2006.

The Thomson First Call consensus estimate is for $43 a barrel in 2005 and $40 a barrel in 2006.

The call, which implies a doubling of oil prices from their current level, sent crude back above $56 per barrel for the first time in more than a week. The contract for May delivery was last quoted up 2.6 percent at $55.40, having earlier touched a high of $56.10.

Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Alaron.com, said $105 oil is technically possible but not likely for at least 3 years and only if a major supply disruption, such as a halt to imports from Saudi Arabia, occurred.

"The timing of the report was conducive to the rally," Flynn said. "It's just another reason to be long. There's no doubt we're in a new bull market for crude oil."

John Kilduff, energy risk analyst Fimat USA, agreed that the $105 price assumes a major supply disruption in Saudi Arabia or a Venezuelan embargo on shipments to the U.S.

"I don't know how they get to that number, short of a significant supply disruption event occurring," he said.

"It's more reflective, to be fair, of the psychology of the energy market right now that there's going to be tremendous demand growth in the late third and the fourth quarter of this year. That's going to put the producers of crude oil in an extremely challenging position in terms of meeting that demand, and that's what is being priced in right now."

Analyst Kevin Kerr of Kerr Trading International said the Goldman call was irresponsible and "clearly an attempt to talk up the market on nothing more than hot air. Goldman has huge speculative energy positions and they have no interest in watching it go down right now."

Murti also said earnings consensus for oil and gas companies ought to grow by 21 percent and 35 percent, respectively in 2005 and 2006, as those stocks stand to outperform the broader market.

The return could be 80 percent if prices hit a super spike, he said. Murti did respond to a request for comment.

Murti recommends adding to positions in the oil sector "at current prices, on a pullback, or even after rallies," and raised 2005 and 2006 earnings estimates across the board.

His top picks in the sector continue to be Exxon Mobil (XOM: news, chart, profile) , Amerada Hess (AHC: news, chart, profile) , Bill Barrett Corp. (BBG: news, chart, profile) , Devon Energy (DVN: news, chart, profile) , EnCana Corp. (ECA: news, chart, profile) , Murphy Oil (MUR: news, chart, profile) , Newfield Exploration (NFX: news, chart, profile) , Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD: news, chart, profile) , Premcor (PCO: news, chart, profile) , Questar Corp. (STR: news, chart, profile) and Suncor Energy (SU: news, chart, profile) .

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...na continuação da notícia anterior... reparem no comentário aqui do Kevin Kerr:

Kerr suggested that Goldman's large position in energy derivatives may have prompted the report.

"That may be more the motivation of this story and account for the timing of it as the oil prices were correcting a bit," he said.



pois... foi por "interesse".. eheh..

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May crude on the rise early Friday

DALLAS (MarketWatch) - May crude-oil futures moved higher Friday morning on the New York Mercantile Exchange, still feeding off a warning of $100-plus oil.
The contract was last at $55.60 a barrel, up 20 cents.
"The reason for the move higher is clear," said Kevin Kerr, president of Kerr Trading International. "The Goldman Sachs analyst report signaling $105 crude jolted the market. Clearly the oil market is bullish in the long term. However to suggest that it will happen in some mythical "superspike" right around the corner is pure fantasy."


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in negocios.pt

Goldman Sachs prevê petróleo nos 105 dólares nos próximos anos (7:50

Os analistas da Goldman Sachs reviram em alta as suas estimativas para o preço do petróleo, afirmando que no caso de uma forte tendência de subida, a cotação do barril de crude poderá chegar aos 105 dólares nos próximos anos.

A anterior previsão da casa de investimento para o valor do crude no caso dos preços «dispararem» situava-se nos 80 dólares.

«A força da procura de petróleo, sobretudo nos Estados Unidos e na China, depois de um ano em que os preços do crude estiveram entre os 40 e os 50 dólares surpreendeu-nos», afirma o analista Arjun Murti numa nota de «research».

Para 2005, a Goldman Sachs reviu em alta a previsão do preço médio do barril de crude, que saltou dos 41 dólares para os 50 dólares. Em 2006 a tendência continua a ser de subida, segundo a casa de investimento, que aponta um preço médio de 55 dólares por barril, contra a anterior previsão de 40 dólares.

Esta subida das cotações terá repercussões nos ganhos das petrolíferas, o que levou a Goldman Sachs a antecipar que as empresas do sector registem um crescimento de 30% nos lucros deste ano.

A casa de investimento sustenta que uma subida dos preços é necessária para «reduzir significativamente o consumo de energia e permitir a criação de reforços nos ‘stocks’ petrolíferos».

A análise da Goldman Sachs foi um dos factores que influenciou os preços na sessão de ontem, assim como a ameaça de greve dos trabalhadores petrolíferos da Nigéria e os receios de que a produção de gasolina não seja suficiente para corresponder à procura.