Como se combate o populismo? "Com eleições", responde Fukuyama

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ECONOMIC REPORT: January factory activity downshifts
By Greg Robb, MarketWatch
Last Update: 10:16 AM ET Feb. 1, 2005

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Factory activity in the United States decelerated in January, the Institute for Supply Management reported Tuesday.

The ISM index fell to 56.4 percent in January from a revised 57.3 percent in December.

The decline was larger than expected. The consensus forecast of estimates collected by Marketwatch was for the index to fall to 57.2 from the initial estimate of a reading of 58.6 in December

New orders fell to 56.5 in January from 62.6 in December.

The employment index rose to 58.1 in January from 53.3 in the previous month.

Economists were expecting the index to fall to 57.2 percent in January, according to a survey conducted by MarketWatch. See Economic Calendar.

This is the 20th month the index has been above 50. Readings over 50 percent indicate growth in the sector. The ISM measures the breadth of economic activity across the manufacturing sector, rather than the depth or intensity of growth.

The employment index rose to 58.1 percent from 52.7 in the previous month.

The production index rose to 57.8 percent from 56.9 in December.

Inventories remained unchanged at 52.8 in January.

The orders backlog fell to 50.5 percent from 54.0 in December.

The price index fell to 69.0 in January from 72.0 in the previous month.

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9:59am 02/01/05 U.S. DEC. PRIVATE CONSTRUCTION OUTLAYS UP 0.9%
9:59am 02/01/05 U.S. 2004 CONSTRUCTION OUTLAYS UP 9%, MOST SINCE 1996
9:59am 02/01/05 U.S. NOV., OCT. CONSTRUCTION OUTLAYS REVISED HIGHER
9:59am 02/01/05 U.S. DEC. CONSTRUCTION OUTLAYS UP 1.1% VS 0.6% EXPECTED
9:59am 02/01/05 U.S. DEC. PUBLIC CONSTRUCTION OUTLAYS UP 1.8%
9:59am 02/01/05 U.S. DEC. RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION OUTLAYS UP 0.7%

10:00am 02/01/05 U.S. JAN. ISM MANUFACTURING INDEX BELOW 57.2% CONSENSUS
10:00am 02/01/05 U.S. JAN. ISM MANUFACTURING INDEX 56.4% VS 58.6% IN NOV
10:02am 02/01/05 U.S. JAN. ISM NEW ORDERS 56.5% VS 62.6% IN DEC.
10:04am 02/01/05 U.S. JAN. ISM EMPLOYMENT INDEX 58.1% VS 53.3% IN DEC.


ECONOMIC REPORT: Construction spending rises 1.1%
By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch
Last Update: 10:06 AM ET Feb. 1, 2005

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Outlays on U.S. construction projects increased a surprising 1.1 percent in December, the biggest gain since April, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday.

November's outlays were revised higher to show a 0.3 percent gain from the 0.4 percent decline previously reported. October's increase was also revised higher by a tenth to 0.4 percent. Read the full release.

Including the revisions, December's gain far exceeded the 0.6 percent expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. See Economic Calendar.

For all of 2004, construction spending rose 9 percent from the 2003 level to a record $998.4 billion, the biggest gain since 1996. December's record annualized rate of a record $1.03 trillion was 8.7 percent above December 2003.

The better-than-expected results will lead to an upward revision to fourth-quarter gross domestic product at the end of the month. The first estimate of 3.1 percent growth released last week was based on an imputed level for construction spending in December.

In a separate report, the Institute for Supply Management said its January manufacturing sentiment index slid to 56.4 percent from 57.3 percent in December. New orders sank more than six percentage points.

In December, construction gains were widespread across sectors.

Private outlays rose 0.9 percent to a record $789 billion in December, including a 1.2 percent increase in nonresidential spending, led by manufacturing and communication. Nonresidential outlays of $229 billion are the highest since May 2002.

Spending on private residential projects increased 0.7 percent in December, the first increase in three months, to a record $560 billion.

Public construction outlays grew 1.8 percent to a record $243 billion in December, led by streets and schools.

For 2004, private outlays increased 10.9 percent to a record $765 billion, including a 14 percent gain in residential to a record $543 billion. It was the biggest increase in private spending in 10 years. Nonresidential outlays grew 3.9 percent to $222 billion.

Public outlays grew 3.4 percent in 2004 to a record $234 billion. School construction rose 3.8 percent to $63 billion while highways increased 3.7 percent to $65 billion.

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Dados EUA: Construction Spending: 1.1%(esp: 0.5%); ISM Manuf:56.4 (esp: 57.0); ISM Prices Paid: 69 (esp: 71.5).

LJ Carregosa SA