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OPEC Keeps Quota, Drops Price Target as `Unrealistic' (Update5)
Jan. 30 (Bloomberg) -- OPEC, the producer of more than a third of the world's oil, agreed to leave output quotas unchanged and abandoned its price targets because members can do little to drive the oil market lower.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will maintain its current quota of 27 million barrels a day, Iran's oil minister, Bijan Namdar Zanganeh, told reporters in Vienna today. Members will study a new price target, the minister said, because the current $22 to $28 a barrel goal is ``unrealistic.''
``Clearly they are paving the way for a significant increase of the oil price target,'' Kevin Norrish, an analyst at Barclays Capital, said in a telephone interview from London. ``This will be another strong year for oil as spare capacity staying low.''
OPEC last month agreed to reduce output just as winter weather in the U.S. and Europe boosted demand for heating oil, sending crude oil to $49.75 a barrel. OPEC said soaring prices haven't slowed world growth, and members will talk before their next meeting, in March, on when to lower supplies.
The group will be monitoring world oil inventories to decide whether to act before their March 16 meeting in Isfahan, Iran, said the Kuwaiti minister and OPEC president, Sheikh Ahmad Fahd al- Sabah. Inventories are now enough to meet 52 days of demand, and an increase to 56 days of demand would raise concern of a surplus, the minister said.
Output Levels
``The level of global oil supply, particularly OPEC output, exceeded demand, allowing commercial oil stocks to build to above their five-year average,'' the group said today in an e-mailed statement.
OPEC this month has lowered output by 800,000 barrels a day to 29.6 million a day, according to estimates from Geneva-based consultant PetroLogistics Ltd., which tracks tanker movements. The total includes Iraq, which is excluded from the quota system.
``They are concerned about stockpiles building in the second quarter,'' Norrish said. ``The question this year is, `Can they increase capacity faster than the demand growth?'''
The Saudi oil minister, Ali al-Naimi, told reporters yesterday that OPEC needs to invest in its oil fields and expand production capacity to meet rising energy demand.
The group expects to have 2.5 million barrels a day of spare production capacity by the end of the year, Sheikh Ahmad said today at a press conference in Vienna.
Economic Impact
OPEC in 2004 failed to anticipate surging crude oil demand in China, and in March lowered production targets to 23.5 million barrels a day. Supply increases in July and August didn't stop prices from reaching a record $55.67 in New York in October.
OPEC should keep the U.S. benchmark crude oil price at between $45 and $55 a barrel, Edmund Daukoru, Nigeria's delegate, said today. Iran's minister said OPEC should seek oil between $30 and $40 a barrel. The Kuwaiti minister said $32 to $35 was acceptable.
The London-based Centre for Global Energy Studies expects OPEC to target an average price of $40 a barrel for its benchmark oil index. Saudi Arabia, OPEC's largest oil producer and its most influential member, will seek to keep prices above $35 a barrel, said the CGES, which is owned by former Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Sheikh Ahmed Zaki Yamani.
OPEC's Price
The OPEC price benchmark was last at $41.88 a barrel. Most OPEC oil sells at a discount to futures prices because its members pump lower grades of crude. Two OPEC committees will advise ministers on their study of a new price target at the next meeting. The Algerian minister, Chakib Khelil, said a decision may be made then on the price target.
``The question is how the market receives the removal of the band,'' said Roger Diwan, managing director of markets and countries for consulting company PFC Energy. ``It just signals that $40 to $50 (a barrel) is the range.''
Crude oil fell Friday, losing $1.66 a barrel, or 3.4 percent, to $47.18 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on expectations OPEC will do nothing at its meeting.
``Having done nothing is going to be a bit of a temptation to the speculators to short the prices to see what OPEC's reaction will be,'' said Adam Sieminski, oil strategist at Deutsche Bank AG in London. ``At some point presumably they will have to cut'' unless demand jumps or supply is reduced in places such as Iraq.
Jan. 30 (Bloomberg) -- OPEC, the producer of more than a third of the world's oil, agreed to leave output quotas unchanged and abandoned its price targets because members can do little to drive the oil market lower.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will maintain its current quota of 27 million barrels a day, Iran's oil minister, Bijan Namdar Zanganeh, told reporters in Vienna today. Members will study a new price target, the minister said, because the current $22 to $28 a barrel goal is ``unrealistic.''
``Clearly they are paving the way for a significant increase of the oil price target,'' Kevin Norrish, an analyst at Barclays Capital, said in a telephone interview from London. ``This will be another strong year for oil as spare capacity staying low.''
OPEC last month agreed to reduce output just as winter weather in the U.S. and Europe boosted demand for heating oil, sending crude oil to $49.75 a barrel. OPEC said soaring prices haven't slowed world growth, and members will talk before their next meeting, in March, on when to lower supplies.
The group will be monitoring world oil inventories to decide whether to act before their March 16 meeting in Isfahan, Iran, said the Kuwaiti minister and OPEC president, Sheikh Ahmad Fahd al- Sabah. Inventories are now enough to meet 52 days of demand, and an increase to 56 days of demand would raise concern of a surplus, the minister said.
Output Levels
``The level of global oil supply, particularly OPEC output, exceeded demand, allowing commercial oil stocks to build to above their five-year average,'' the group said today in an e-mailed statement.
OPEC this month has lowered output by 800,000 barrels a day to 29.6 million a day, according to estimates from Geneva-based consultant PetroLogistics Ltd., which tracks tanker movements. The total includes Iraq, which is excluded from the quota system.
``They are concerned about stockpiles building in the second quarter,'' Norrish said. ``The question this year is, `Can they increase capacity faster than the demand growth?'''
The Saudi oil minister, Ali al-Naimi, told reporters yesterday that OPEC needs to invest in its oil fields and expand production capacity to meet rising energy demand.
The group expects to have 2.5 million barrels a day of spare production capacity by the end of the year, Sheikh Ahmad said today at a press conference in Vienna.
Economic Impact
OPEC in 2004 failed to anticipate surging crude oil demand in China, and in March lowered production targets to 23.5 million barrels a day. Supply increases in July and August didn't stop prices from reaching a record $55.67 in New York in October.
OPEC should keep the U.S. benchmark crude oil price at between $45 and $55 a barrel, Edmund Daukoru, Nigeria's delegate, said today. Iran's minister said OPEC should seek oil between $30 and $40 a barrel. The Kuwaiti minister said $32 to $35 was acceptable.
The London-based Centre for Global Energy Studies expects OPEC to target an average price of $40 a barrel for its benchmark oil index. Saudi Arabia, OPEC's largest oil producer and its most influential member, will seek to keep prices above $35 a barrel, said the CGES, which is owned by former Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Sheikh Ahmed Zaki Yamani.
OPEC's Price
The OPEC price benchmark was last at $41.88 a barrel. Most OPEC oil sells at a discount to futures prices because its members pump lower grades of crude. Two OPEC committees will advise ministers on their study of a new price target at the next meeting. The Algerian minister, Chakib Khelil, said a decision may be made then on the price target.
``The question is how the market receives the removal of the band,'' said Roger Diwan, managing director of markets and countries for consulting company PFC Energy. ``It just signals that $40 to $50 (a barrel) is the range.''
Crude oil fell Friday, losing $1.66 a barrel, or 3.4 percent, to $47.18 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on expectations OPEC will do nothing at its meeting.
``Having done nothing is going to be a bit of a temptation to the speculators to short the prices to see what OPEC's reaction will be,'' said Adam Sieminski, oil strategist at Deutsche Bank AG in London. ``At some point presumably they will have to cut'' unless demand jumps or supply is reduced in places such as Iraq.
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By Peg Mackey and Francois Murphy
VIENNA (Reuters) - OPEC producers agreed Sunday to keep output limits on hold, convinced that oil prices near $50 a barrel are not stifling world growth.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries wasted little time in deciding on no change to supply quotas, despite worries among consumer nations about inflated fuel costs.
Gone are the concerns that dominated in OPEC last year about the impact of rising crude prices on the economic growth that drives demand for its oil.
With inflation in the world's big economic powers in check and low interest rates still generating above trend growth, cartel ministers see no reason for cheaper oil.
"$50 oil will not play a big role in slowing up growth of the economy. Some analysts say even $60 oil will play a small role in affecting growth," said OPEC President Sheikh Ahmad al-Fahd al-Sabah of Kuwait.
"I am comfortable with the market between $45 and $55," said Edmund Daukoru, Nigeria's Presidential Adviser on energy.
OPEC now appears ready to defend oil prices at a floor of about $40 a barrel for U.S. crude, or $35 for a reference basket of cartel crudes.
Ministers agreed to officially set aside their old $22-$28 range for the basket, set in March 2000, but are in no hurry to set a new target, saying prices are too volatile.
"We have to wait until the second quarter of this year to know exactly where the price indicator will head," said Sheikh Ahmad. "But I believe that $35 is a suitable price as an average price for the OPEC basket of crudes."
"Somewhere between $30-$40," said Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh.
Economists agree there is little sign yet of an energy price shock, partly because the U.S. dollar's decline on currency markets has protected non-dollar importers from the rise in dollar-denominated oil prices.
"Yes, oil prices are high but the U.S. economy hasn't skipped a beat and the weaker dollar has insulated many growing economies from a shock," said Yasser Elguindi, analyst for Medley Global Advisers.
"High oil prices are not hurting demand because the value of the dollar allows emerging economies to afford higher prices."
Oil ministers are confident another 1.5-2.0 million barrels daily of demand this year in the 83 million bpd world market, led by China, will support another year of high prices.
But, meeting next in Isfahan, Iran on March 16, they may yet decide to shave production to contain a seasonal second quarter stockbuild.
At Friday's U.S. close of $47.15 a barrel, oil prices were too high to justify arranging cuts now for implementation at the start of April, when seasonal demand ebbs.
"Now is not the time to cut," said Zanganeh.
Some in OPEC worry the mid-March meet comes a little late for comfort to adjust supply. Middle East exports take six weeks to reach Western markets.
Sheikh Ahmad said that, should inventories build too quickly and prices fall, he could call a ministerial teleconference to take action.
VIENNA (Reuters) - OPEC producers agreed Sunday to keep output limits on hold, convinced that oil prices near $50 a barrel are not stifling world growth.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries wasted little time in deciding on no change to supply quotas, despite worries among consumer nations about inflated fuel costs.
Gone are the concerns that dominated in OPEC last year about the impact of rising crude prices on the economic growth that drives demand for its oil.
With inflation in the world's big economic powers in check and low interest rates still generating above trend growth, cartel ministers see no reason for cheaper oil.
"$50 oil will not play a big role in slowing up growth of the economy. Some analysts say even $60 oil will play a small role in affecting growth," said OPEC President Sheikh Ahmad al-Fahd al-Sabah of Kuwait.
"I am comfortable with the market between $45 and $55," said Edmund Daukoru, Nigeria's Presidential Adviser on energy.
OPEC now appears ready to defend oil prices at a floor of about $40 a barrel for U.S. crude, or $35 for a reference basket of cartel crudes.
Ministers agreed to officially set aside their old $22-$28 range for the basket, set in March 2000, but are in no hurry to set a new target, saying prices are too volatile.
"We have to wait until the second quarter of this year to know exactly where the price indicator will head," said Sheikh Ahmad. "But I believe that $35 is a suitable price as an average price for the OPEC basket of crudes."
"Somewhere between $30-$40," said Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh.
Economists agree there is little sign yet of an energy price shock, partly because the U.S. dollar's decline on currency markets has protected non-dollar importers from the rise in dollar-denominated oil prices.
"Yes, oil prices are high but the U.S. economy hasn't skipped a beat and the weaker dollar has insulated many growing economies from a shock," said Yasser Elguindi, analyst for Medley Global Advisers.
"High oil prices are not hurting demand because the value of the dollar allows emerging economies to afford higher prices."
Oil ministers are confident another 1.5-2.0 million barrels daily of demand this year in the 83 million bpd world market, led by China, will support another year of high prices.
But, meeting next in Isfahan, Iran on March 16, they may yet decide to shave production to contain a seasonal second quarter stockbuild.
At Friday's U.S. close of $47.15 a barrel, oil prices were too high to justify arranging cuts now for implementation at the start of April, when seasonal demand ebbs.
"Now is not the time to cut," said Zanganeh.
Some in OPEC worry the mid-March meet comes a little late for comfort to adjust supply. Middle East exports take six weeks to reach Western markets.
Sheikh Ahmad said that, should inventories build too quickly and prices fall, he could call a ministerial teleconference to take action.
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OPEP
OPEP ratifica cuotas de producción y abandona mecanismo de precios
Viena, 30 ene (PL) La Organización de Países Exportadores de Petróleo (OPEP) ratificó hoy la cuota de producción vigente de 27 millones de barriles diarios, a la vez que abandonó el mecanismo de precios establecido marzo del 2000.
Los representantes de las 11 naciones que integran el cártel, responsable del 36 por ciento de la extracción mundial de crudo, descartaron por el momento nuevos recortes en la oferta y acordaron mantener el nivel adoptado a inicios del 2005.
El techo productivo, que no incluye a Iraq, ya fue reducido en un millón de barriles diarios a partir de enero para evitar un colapso en las cotizaciones debido a la saturación de los mercados energéticos internacionales.
En declaraciones a la prensa, el actual presidente en funciones de la OPEP, Ahmad Fahd al-Sabah, indicó que la agrupación seguirá de cerca el comportamiento de los inventarios mundiales para decidir la forma de actuar en el encuentro previsto para marzo en Iraq.
No obstante, el también ministro del petróleo de Kuwait señaló que el nivel actual de existencias es capaz de cubrir hasta 52 días de demanda, por lo cual una cantidad mayor sólo serviría para aumentar los excedentes.
Asimismo, el titular iraní del petróleo, Bijan Namdar Zanganeh, manifestó que los miembros de la entidad estudiarán una nueva banda de precios, al admitir que el marco de 22 a 28 dólares por barril resulta irreal.
En marzo del 2000, la OPEP adoptó un esquema que contemplaba la posibilidad de fluctuaciones en el rango mencionado, además de prever acciones inmediatas en el caso de que los valores abandonaran esa franja de precios durante al menos 20 días hábiles de forma consecutiva.
Sin embargo, los analistas admitieron que con cotizaciones sostenidas por encima de los 40 dólares el barril, resultará muy difícil retornar a una cota en torno a los 28 dólares la unidad.
Por otra parte, los integrantes del cártel se enfrentan a una menor capacidad de compra, pues en la práctica sus ventas se denominan en dólares y esta moneda sufre una marcada tendencia a la baja en los mercados cambiarios.
lac/mem
Viena, 30 ene (PL) La Organización de Países Exportadores de Petróleo (OPEP) ratificó hoy la cuota de producción vigente de 27 millones de barriles diarios, a la vez que abandonó el mecanismo de precios establecido marzo del 2000.
Los representantes de las 11 naciones que integran el cártel, responsable del 36 por ciento de la extracción mundial de crudo, descartaron por el momento nuevos recortes en la oferta y acordaron mantener el nivel adoptado a inicios del 2005.
El techo productivo, que no incluye a Iraq, ya fue reducido en un millón de barriles diarios a partir de enero para evitar un colapso en las cotizaciones debido a la saturación de los mercados energéticos internacionales.
En declaraciones a la prensa, el actual presidente en funciones de la OPEP, Ahmad Fahd al-Sabah, indicó que la agrupación seguirá de cerca el comportamiento de los inventarios mundiales para decidir la forma de actuar en el encuentro previsto para marzo en Iraq.
No obstante, el también ministro del petróleo de Kuwait señaló que el nivel actual de existencias es capaz de cubrir hasta 52 días de demanda, por lo cual una cantidad mayor sólo serviría para aumentar los excedentes.
Asimismo, el titular iraní del petróleo, Bijan Namdar Zanganeh, manifestó que los miembros de la entidad estudiarán una nueva banda de precios, al admitir que el marco de 22 a 28 dólares por barril resulta irreal.
En marzo del 2000, la OPEP adoptó un esquema que contemplaba la posibilidad de fluctuaciones en el rango mencionado, además de prever acciones inmediatas en el caso de que los valores abandonaran esa franja de precios durante al menos 20 días hábiles de forma consecutiva.
Sin embargo, los analistas admitieron que con cotizaciones sostenidas por encima de los 40 dólares el barril, resultará muy difícil retornar a una cota en torno a los 28 dólares la unidad.
Por otra parte, los integrantes del cártel se enfrentan a una menor capacidad de compra, pues en la práctica sus ventas se denominan en dólares y esta moneda sufre una marcada tendencia a la baja en los mercados cambiarios.
lac/mem
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