Como se combate o populismo? "Com eleições", responde Fukuyama

[AC]

NEW YORK - Over the past two weeks, a group of the 100 best investors--out of the more than 50,000 who keep simulated portfolios on Marketocracy--have been buying the Bermuda-based shipping company Excel Maritime Carriers. Meanwhile, most other investors have ignored the stock, and because of this, Marketocracy considers it a strong buy.
Strong Buy:
Excel Maritime Carriers (amex: EXM - news - people )
While the company currently has only five ships, it has purchased an additional five, which it expects to receive within the next two months. The dry-bulk shipper has been turning a profit on its small fleet so far, earning $2.18 per share over the last year. Gurus buying Excel (amex: EXM - news - people ) are expecting the havoc that the tsunami wreaked on Asia to make shipping more difficult, which in turn would decrease the supply of available shipping space across the board, and allow shippers like Excel to raise their rates. M100 members have added 83% to their holdings, putting the stock in the top 15% of their portfolios. Excel currently trades at $24.14 per share.


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Next to competitors like Frontline (nyse: FRO - news - people ) and General Maritime (nyse: GMR - news - people ), with market capitalizations well into the billions, Excel's market cap is a relatively tiny $281 million. That's a theme for the M100, whose portfolios are weighted most heavily in small-cap stocks. Nevertheless, they've been selling a lot of their small-cap positions and adding to only a select few--essentially consolidating their holdings.

One of the heaviest small-cap buys was Waltham, Mass.-based Novell (nasdaq: NOVL - news - people ). The stock has lost considerable ground this year, despite widespread optimism about its acquisition of Suse Linux, which brought Novell into the open-source software field. Though its value has dropped just about in half since the acquisition--to $6.26, recently--analysts are expecting the company to earn 13 cents per share this year (year end is Oct 31) and 19 cents per share in 2006, which would translate to 46% growth. Still, that only brings the forward price-to-earnings ratio down to 33. Gurus more than doubled their holdings of the company, pushing it up into their top 3%.

They also took a gamble on Chester, W.Va.-based MTR Gaming (nasdaq: MNTG - news - people ), which operates casinos and horse-racing facilities in Las Vegas, Nev., West Virginia and Ohio. It's flat on the year at about $11, or 19.3 times the expected 2005 earnings and 2.6 times the book value. Despite having a market cap of just $313.5 million, more than half of MTR shares are held by institutions. The M100 has more than doubled their position.

On October 13, 2004, the stock of Delray Beach, Fla.-based technology company Applied Digital Solutions (nasdaq: ADSX - news - people ) exploded after the FDA approved human use of its RFID chip. That initiated a run that lifted the stock from just over $2 to more than $7 per share in early 2005. But, ADSX has dipped a bit since then, pulling back to a close of $5.25 on Jan. 18. Gurus have been buying, and the stock is in the top 4% of their portfolios.

Other small-cap guru buys included mattress-maker Tempur Pedic International (nyse: TPX - news - people ) and CEC Entertainment (nyse: CEC - news - people ), which owns more than 400 Chuck E. Cheese restaurants. These trade at $20.74 and $39.11, respectively.


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Gurus completely cashed out of Atlanta, Ga.-based Delta Air Lines (nyse: DAL - news - people ), which they had been accumulating throughout 2004. The stock fell to an October low of $2.75 amid fears of bankruptcy, and then rebounded to a close of $6.15 on Jan. 18. Gurus took the opportunity to bow out, with the company continuing to lose money, and with nearly 40% of its shares short as of early December.

They also sold two biotechnology companies: Myogen (nasdaq: MYOG - news - people ) and Keryx Biopharmaceuticals (nasdaq: KERX - news - people ), but repurchased Westminster, Colo.-based Myogen in mid-November 2004, and then sold it at about the same price earlier this month. The company is researching small-molecule drugs for cardiovascular diseases. Its stock closed at $7.59 on Jan. 18. New York, N.Y.-based Keryx, which develops drugs for cancer and diabetes, is up 36% to $15.29 since announcing on Jan. 5 that it was going to start phase III trials of its diabetes drug. Gurus, who bought in early December 2004, promptly closed out the short-term trade.

Another short-term small-cap trade was San Francisco, Calif.-based online-media company CNET Networks (nasdaq: CNET - news - people ), which is nearly 20% higher--at $10.71--than it was in mid-November 2004, when gurus were buying. The company trades at 44.6 times their expected 2005 earnings of 24 cents per share.

Small-Cap Buys (Net):
Novell (nasdaq: NOVL - news - people )
MTR Gaming (nasdaq: MNTG - news - people )
Applied Digital Solutions (nasdaq: ADSX - news - people )
Tempur Pedic International (nyse: TPX - news - people )
CEC Entertainment (nyse: CEC - news - people )


Small-Cap Sells (Net):
Delta Air Lines (nyse: DAL - news - people )
Myogen (nasdaq: MYOG - news - people )
Keryx Biopharmaceuticals (nasdaq: KERX - news - people )
CNET Networks (nasdaq: CNET - news - people )

Marketocracy.com tracks more than 60,000 stock portfolios that are run by amateur investors. Of those, the top 100 performing portfolios are mirrored in a real life mutual fund, the Masters 100 Fund ( MOFQX) . Each week, Guru Picks analyzes the buys and sells of this best performing group of investors, known as the M100.

[AC]

começa a ser bastante interessante ver que este titulo está com um suporte muito forte neste zona dos 6$ e que tem andado ultimamente a lateralizar entre os 7,4 e os 6. O facto mais relevante destes últimos dias tem sido os chamados Insiders nas compras deste titulo. Os seus directores têm entrado no titulo nas últimas semanas nomeadamente com compras de 78000 e a última de 13000, algo poderá estar pra sair pela positiva !!!!