Como se combate o populismo? "Com eleições", responde Fukuyama

[Info....]

para quem precisar de mais pormenores... cá ficam:

8:30am 01/07/05 U.S. DEC. AGGREGATE HOURS WORKED UP 0.4%
8:30am 01/07/05 U.S. 2004 AVERAGE HOURLY WAGES UP 2.7%
8:30am 01/07/05 U.S. DEC. AVERAGE WORKWEEK 33.8 HRS AS EXPECTED
8:30am 01/07/05 U.S. DEC. AVERAGE HOURLY WAGES 0.1% VS. 0.2% EXPECTED

8:30am 01/07/05 U.S. DEC. LABOR PARTICIPATION RATE 66.0%
8:30am 01/07/05 U.S. DEC. RETAIL JOBS DOWN 20,000
8:30am 01/07/05 U.S. DEC. MANUFACTURING JOBS UP 3,000
8:30am 01/07/05 U.S. OCT. NOV. NONFARM PAYROLLS REVISED UP 34,000
8:30am 01/07/05 U.S. 2004 NONFARM PAYROLLS RISE 2.23 MILLION
8:30am 01/07/05 U.S. DEC. NONFARM PAYROLLS 157,000 VS.178,000 EXPECTED
8:30am 01/07/05 U.S. DEC. JOBLESS RATE 5.4% AS EXPECTED

U.S. payrolls in line with expectations, economist says /8:51am

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- U.S. December nonfarm payroll growth of 157,000 was largely in line with expectations of 178,000 after considering upward revisions to prior months, said Joshua Shapiro, chief economist for MFR. "No suprises here," Shapiro said of Friday's report. "Underlying job growth appears to be in the +175K-200K per month range. Next month is a tough one to project, as seasonal adjustment is huge, adding about 2.8 million to the non-seasonally adjusted change as holiday employees are let go."

U.S. jobs report is soft, economist says (8:58am

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- U.S. job growth remains soft, despite an "OK" payroll report for December, said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist for High Frequency Economics. Shepherdson notes that the 157,000 rise in December payrolls was "flattered" by very favorable seasonal adjustment factors and the addition of 36,000 state and local government jobs. "Overall looks OK but core job gains are softer than headlines and wage gains are still worryingly soft," he said. Wages grew just 0.1 percent in December.


ECONOMIC REPORT: U.S. payrolls rise 157,000 in December; Average hourly wages rise a modest 0.1%
By Rex Nutting, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 8:55 AM ET Jan. 7, 2005

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - U.S. nonfarm payrolls grew by a seasonally adjusted 157,000 in December while the unemployment rate remained steady at 5.4 percent, the Labor Department said Friday.

With upward revisions of 34,000 to previous months, December payroll growth was close to expectations of 178,000. See Economic Calendar.

For all of 2004, 2.231 million jobs were added, the best since 1999, based on the business establishment survey.

"No surprises here," said Joshua Shapiro, chief economist for MFR. "Underlying job growth appears to be in the 175,000 to 200,000 per month range."

Average hourly earnings rose by 2 cents, or 0.1 percent, to $15.86 in December, less than the 0.2 percent expected by economists surveyed by CBS MarketWatch.

Average hourly earnings have increased 2.7 percent in the past 12 months, the fastest growth since the summer of 2003, but slower than inflation of 3.5 percent.

Financial markets cheered the news. U.S. stock futures gained, while Treasurys enjoyed a brief rally, in relief. The U.S. dollar gained. See full story.

The figures are likely to have little impact on the decisions of the Federal Reserve to gradually raise interest rates from very low levels. The Federal Open Market Committee meets again on Feb. 1 and 2.

The FOMC has indicated it's becoming increasingly concerned about higher inflation than weaker growth. The mild gain in hourly earnings should mollify those fears somewhat.

The average workweek added back a tenth of an hour to 33.8 hours in December. The total number of hours worked in the economy grew by 0.4 percent.

Manufacturing industries added 3,000 jobs in December, the first gain since August. For all of 2004, factory jobs grew by 76,000, the first annual increase since 1997.

Construction industries added 7,000 jobs, the 10th increase in a row. The sector added 258,000 jobs during the year.

Service-producing jobs grew by 144,000 in December, despite the loss of nearly 20,000 jobs in the retail sector. The services sector added 1.9 million jobs in 2004.

Within services, business and professional services added 41,000 jobs in December, including 10,000 in computers and 9,000 temporary jobs.

Temp jobs grew by 206,000 in 2004.

A separate survey of households painted a slightly weaker picture of the employment market. Unemployment grew by 27,000 in the month to 8.047 million, while employment fell by 137,000. Economists have cautioned that the business survey is a more accurate gauge of the labor market.

Long-term unemployment remained high. Of the 8 million people classified as unemployed, 1.6 million, or 20.2 percent, had been out of work longer than six months. A year ago, the figure was 1.9 million.

[Ulisses Pereira]

Pipoca, não me expressei bem. Quando eu digo que são um pouco decepcionantes é em termos de crescimento económico, mas para os mercados talvez seja mesmo o melhor número possível, em função daquilo que expuseste e com o qual concordo plenamente.

Um abraço,
Ulisses

[Pipoca]

Na minha opinião os numeros não foram nada decepcionantes, pelo simples facto que "aliviam" um pouco as expectativas que existiam sobre uma potencial subida das taxas juros (factor este que têm sido o principal condicionante do mercado nos últimos dias...)

O número acima das expectativas seria bastante mais nefasto, já que aumentaria estes mesmos receios...

Pelo contrário, um número bastante baixo seria tb bastante negativo, pelos motivos óbvios (arrefecimento da economia, etc, etc...)

[Ulisses Pereira]

Os números foram um pouco decepcionantes, mas houve uma revisão em alta dos números do mês passado, mais ou menos no mesmo valor em que estes ficaram abaixo das expectativas.

Um abraço,
Ulisses

[TRSM]

Dados EUA: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: 157 k (esp: 175k); Change in Manufact. Payrolls: 3 k (esp: 0k).

LJ Carregosa SA


Dados EUA: Average Weekly Hours : 33.8 (Est.33.8)

LJ Carregosa SA