Como se combate o populismo? "Com eleições", responde Fukuyama

[Visitante]

parece-me uma bela base, aquela que se formou entre Jan/2001 e Jun/2003!
postei isso, mas ninguém comentou... concordam?

[Alfred E. Neuman]

como referi no meu post, eu aguardaria por uma ruptura com volume da MA50 que funcionou como resistência nos últimos dias.

Não excluir a hipótese de uma retracção até à base do triângulo para fechar o gap: sentir-me-ia bastante mais confortável com uma entrada a 11,70/11,80.

Pelo que tenho lido, penso que se trata de uma boa oportunidade para os próximos meses.

a RHAT é um caso curioso; há uns dias atrás quebrou a base do triângulo, o que terá levado muitos investidores a considerarem a situação como uma boa oportunidade de entrar curto. A recomendação da First Albany terá provocado prejuizos a muita gente ( o fecho de posições curtas terá contribuido também para a subida significativa verificada nesse dia )

11:47am 11/15/04
Red Hat boosted by First Albany to "buy" (RHAT) By Michael Baron

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Shares of Red Hat Inc. (RHAT) gained more than 13 percent to $13.12 after First Albany raised its rating on the Linux company to "buy" from "neutral" and set a $15 price target. The firm cited the decline in the stock to a 52-week low of $11.21 last week from a high of $29.06 in early June and said it thinks Red Hat's cash flow could hit a "record high" in the November quarter. It added that fundamentals for Linux remain strong and that risk is minimalizd by the low valuation.

Red Hat Shares Rise as Analyst Touts Growth Outlook
November 15, 2004: 14:18 p.m. EST



- Dow Jones Newswires
NEW YORK -- Shares of Red Hat Inc. (RHAT) were up Monday after First Albany Capital upgraded the stock to "buy" from "hold."

Analyst Mark Murphy cited an overcorrection in Wall Street's valuation, even as the Raleigh, N.C., Linux software company's results suggest it's poised to benefit from a second wave of investment in the lead alternative to Microsoft Corp.'s (MSFT) Windows operating system.

"We believe investor sentiment has come full circle from a near-religious fervor of support (for Red Hat) to an agnostic pessimism," Mr. Murphy said in a note.

At 2 p.m. EST, shares of Red Hat were up $1.78, or 15%, to $13.36 in trading on the Nasdaq Stock Market. The stock traded at a 52-week high of $29.06 on June 2.

Mr. Murphy said the plunge in share price gives it more favorable cash flow trends than many larger software companies, making the stock less risky. He said the selloff came as investors were fixated on slips in Red Hat's average selling price and fears of competition in the market it dominates, glossing over revenue, margin, and cash flow gains. Volume growth has more than offset the pricing slips, Mr. Murphy noted, and companies such as Novell Inc. (NOVL) may not be able to keep up Red Hat's growth pace.

Americas Growth Capital analyst Philip Rueppel said the depleted selling price hasn't hurt operating earnings growth. The company, which sells packaged Linux applications on a subscription basis, posted second-quarter earnings almost triple year-earlier results.

Mr. Murphy anticipates Red Hat is at the crest of "a second and much larger wave" of Linux growth as companies invest in more complex applications.

Mr. Murphy couldn't be reached for disclosure. Mr. Rueppel doesn't own Red Hat shares and is unaware of any Americas Growth investment banking relationship.

-Rob Curran, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-5400

Dow Jones Newswires 11-15-04 1418ET Copyright (C) 2004 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Red Hat Surges on Upgrade

By Bill Snyder
TheStreet.com Staff Reporter
11/15/2004 12:26 PM EST

Red Hat (RHAT:Nasdaq - news - research) got a much-needed boost Monday, when First Albany upgraded shares of the Linux vendor to buy from neutral.

In recent trading, shares were up $1.30, or 11%, to $12.88 on heavy volume, reversing a slide that erased 60% of the company's share value since early June.

Once a darling of investors who believed that Linux, an open-source operating system, could successfully challenge Microsoft's (MSFT:Nasdaq - news - research) Windows juggernaut, Red Hat has been beaten up, in part over concerns that a price war with rival Novell (NOVL:Nasdaq - news - research) is killing profitability.

In a note to clients, analyst Mark Murphy said that those concerns are overblown and set a price target of $15 a share. "We believe the tone of business in RHAT's November quarter supports our targets for subscription volumes and cash flow, potentially setting the stage for RHAT to report record high quarterly cash flow," he wrote.

He said the company is discounted too deeply, trading at 12 times enterprise value to operating cash flow, vs. 18 times for Novel and 17 times for Oracle (ORCL:Nasdaq - news - research).

Murphy said that while average selling prices declined by 25% between August 2003 and August 2004, volume has increased by roughly 230%, "netting out very favorably in terms of revenue growth, margin improvements and cash flow generation. Furthermore, the ASP decline reflects a different product mix, different channel mix, different contract duration, different geographic mix and different volumes."

First Albany does not have an investment banking relationship with Red Hat.

[Visitante]

alfred,
acha k é uma boa altura para entrar?
cumps

[Alfred E. Neuman]

Se quebrar a MA 50 com volume parece-me uma boa altura para entrar. A projecção depois é que é bastante optimista: são $7, o que significa quase 50%

[Visitante]

Alfred... digamos que eu tinha a minha linha de suporte/resistencia um pouco mais acima da tua e que fui apanhado completamente de surpresa com este gap.... e que de um lucro de quase10% passei rapidamente para um prejuizo de 10% (isto das alavancagens...).

melhores dias virao (espero)...

Um abraco
Nunofaustino

[Alfred E. Neuman]

15:51:00

Red Hat Inc 12,91 11,49%

[Alfred E. Neuman]

Last Update: 8:49 AM ET Nov. 15, 2004

Red Hat (RHAT) was upped by First Albany to to buy from neutral and set a $15 price target on the stock. The broker told clients "Linux fundamentals remain strong; the second wave of growth will be driven by higher level applications moving over to Linux; we see this starting to happen, and the platform of choice is RHAT."

Alguém acompanha? Any comments ?