Como se combate o populismo? "Com eleições", responde Fukuyama

[JAOR]

Começou o diz q disse q vai dizer q já disseram, em relação à reunião q o DJ salietou.

LMAO!

Na percebi... Podes descodificar? É q inda ñ tomei as gotas hoje...



PS - I know jack... Don't think it's the same jack, but well... One does what one can.

Só falta sinais de fumo

jocas e Cmpts

[Stratega]

Começou o diz q disse q vai dizer q já disseram, em relação à reunião q o DJ salietou.

LMAO!

Na percebi... Podes descodificar? É q inda ñ tomei as gotas hoje...



PS - I know jack... Don't think it's the same jack, but well... One does what one can.

[D1as]

Começou o diz q disse q vai dizer q já disseram, em relação à reunião q o DJ salietou.

LMAO!

[Stratega]

Bom dia a todos e boa semana!

E o rapazinho lá descolou dos 1.2980 pra gáulio de quem o conseguiu apanhar a descer. (Incluindo eu )
Será 1.2900 possível inda hoje?



Encontrei esta na bloomberg. Será areia pros olhos?

Começou o diz q disse q vai dizer q já disseram, em relação à reunião q o DJ salietou.



Snow Says `Strong Dollar' Is `in America's Interest' (Update3)

Nov. 15 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. supports a ``strong dollar,'' Treasury Secretary John Snow said, making his first remarks on the currency since George W. Bush was re-elected president on Nov. 2.

``We support a strong dollar -- a strong dollar is in America's interest,'' Snow told reporters in Dublin today. ``Currency values are best set in open and competitive exchange markets.''

Snow's comments repeat what the U.S. has said about the dollar since he came into office in January 2003. Measured by the Fed's Trade-Weighted Major Currency Dollar Index, the dollar has shed 21 percent since Bush took office in January 2001. Under Bill Clinton's last two Treasury secretaries, Robert Rubin and Lawrence Summers, the index advanced about 24 percent.

Expectations that the Bush administration won't protest a decline in the currency to narrow the current-account deficit prompted Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to lower its forecasts for the dollar against the euro and yen on Nov. 11.

European officials including European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet have signaled increased concern about the dollar's decline. Growth in the 12-nation euro region slowed in the third quarter and the euro's increase may further curb export growth by making European goods more expensive overseas. The euro rose to a record $1.30 on Nov. 10.

Euro's Ascent

When asked about the prospect of government efforts to stem the euro's increase, Snow said: ``Our basic policy is to let open, competitive markets set the values.''

The euro fell after Snow's remarks, giving up a gain of as much as 0.2 percent. The euro was little changed at $1.2963 at 11:35 a.m. in Frankfurt. The yen traded near a seven-month high against the U.S. currency as Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average registered its biggest gain in six weeks.

The euro has risen about 10 percent from its low against the dollar this year of $1.1761, reached in late April. It has risen against the U.S. currency for the past three months and is up 1.3 percent so far in November, the longest streak since a 10-month advance ended in May 2003.

``We support, and long have, free trade, free flow of capital and open competitive currency markets as the foundation for a well- ordered world trading system,'' he said.

Helping Exporters

A stronger euro is helping U.S. companies such as Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co., the largest North American tire maker, Timken Co., the largest U.S. maker of automotive and industrial bearings, and Caterpillar Inc., the world's largest maker of earthmoving equipment. The companies are benefiting as they convert European sales into dollars, according to recent filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Other U.S. markets have withstood the decline in the country's currency. The Standard & Poor's 500 stock index on Nov. 12 rose to 1184.17, the highest closing level since Aug. 24, 2001. The yield on 10-year Treasury notes fell to 4.18 percent Friday, down from 4.4 percent a year earlier.

``We haven't see any real disruptions in financial markets at this point,'' said Robert Hormats, a vice chairman at Goldman Sachs International in New York.

The U.S. for almost a decade has maintained a policy of stating its support for a ``strong'' dollar, and the era of dollar dominance, characterized by a 17 percent gain under former U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, is ending.

`Never Say Never'

The U.S. hasn't taken steps to boost the dollar since August 1995 when it sold $300 million in yen and $400 million in deutsche marks, Treasury data show. Since then, it has acted in foreign- exchange markets only twice, both times to weaken the dollar: buying yen in June 1998 and euros in September 2000.

When asked Feb. 9 when the euro was at $1.2701 whether governments should buy and sell currencies to influence foreign exchange rates, Snow said such ``interventions should be kept to a minimum, but we never say never, either.''

The Exchange Stabilization Fund, which the U.S. Treasury can tap to trade currencies, contained $43 billion in yen, dollars and euros as of Jan. 31 -- too little to affect currency values in a for more than a short period, analysts said.

Snow's stop in Ireland's capital is his first on a weeklong trip that includes the U.K. and Poland before ending in Berlin on Nov. 20-21 for meetings with the Group of 20 developing and industrial countries.

[Antunes]

dj,

Com este tipo de divergências semanais, eu não vejo só uma pequena queda no horizonte mas o mercado é mesmo assim: feito de opiniões diferentes. Quanto a mim, o 1º objectivo será a zona dos 1.26...

[semprefrio]

Bom dia.

Vejam este, na Financial Sense Online:

......................

Is the US Killing the Euro?
by Alex Wallenwein, Editor & Publisher
The Euro vs Dollar Currency War Monitor
November 12, 2004


Fighting an opponent doesn't always mean opposing his force. When faced with overwhelming power, good fighters often use their attacker's force to their advantage, like in Judo, for example. There are better examples in martial arts, but Judo is probably the most commonly known and understood.

It looks like the US strategy in this transcontinental currency battle is to give the euro's masters what they want - except way too much of it, way too quickly, in order to overload the euro system and make it collapse

The ECB was instituted by the euro's creators to preside over an orderly transition away from a dollar-dependent world to a more versatile arrangement wherein the euro fulfills a quasi-reserve function that will eventually give way to gold being the ultimate international currency reserve, with all the fiats freely floating against gold instead of against each other.

But the road there is a long and winding one, and not even all of those currently "in charge" (international central bankers) are fully aware that this is the ultimate goal. Rather, that unstated goal was wrapped up implicitly in the ECB's role of guaranteeing price-stability, rather than using interest rates to jump-start an otherwise faltering economy like the Fed does over here.

"Price-stability" mans that the currency is intentionally not used as a means for gunning Euroland's economic engines. This goal is designed as a precaution to avoid the excesses caused by overprinting, which has been the US' main tool for papering-over any possible recessions, or even looming depressions - so far.

So far, the US model has "worked" - but only to the point where the resulting trade and investment imbalances are about to do the dollar in altogether.

To provide a life-line to keep the world from falling into that same pit together with the dollar was the very reason for the euro's creation and launch.

We now find ourselves at a juncture where the US (in its efforts to continue to paper-over its excesses and their consequences) absolutely MUST have a lower dollar to even survive. A lower dollar has the twin benefits of (a) lowering the monstrous current account deficit (reflecting trade plus investment-flow imbalances), and (b) propping up the competitiveness of US exporters, hopefully leading to more investment by these firms, and eventually to increased employment.

The Fed and Bush administration know that the euro's ultimate aim is by necessity to slowly attract foreign investors and central banks to the euro and away from the dollar. But they also know that an explosively upward rocketing euro will wreck the Europeans' major economies in a heartbeat. As a result, the US game is to allow the dollar to drop lower - and faster than the Europeans' fragile economies can tolerate!

What the newspapers and financial commentators call a policy of "benign neglect" turns out not to be so benign at all: by pursuing its current strategy, the dollar-establishment is killing three birds with one stone: they get the benefit of (1) higher US export-competitiveness and better economic performance, (2) simultaneously lower EU export competitiveness resulting in economic stagnation, and (3) shifting the entire burden of smoothing out the dollar's forex movements onto the Europeans' backs.

The dollar-faction knows that it has nothing to resist the world's slow but steady, molasses-like run to the dollar-exit doors. It will happen. Nothing can prevent it - except ...

The dollar-faction's best chances at regaining control, they believe, lie in speeding up that very process - way past the ECB's tolerance level - in an attempt to utterly destabilize the euro system, hoping for an eventual complete breakdown.

In essence, the dollar faction is playing a game of "chicken" with the Europeans.

So far, the ECB hasn't blinked. It was able to get away with purely verbal intervention earlier this year. It will be very interesting to watch what happens now that the purely verbal attempts have proven to be of very little effect, so far.

My personal guess is that the ECB will try some covert actual intervention before they'ill drop their interest rates. Maybe some friendly arm-twisting of certain Asian nations will do the trick? Who knows?

In the meantime, China and the Muslim nations are playing another game, altogether. Every time the dollar drops, they are buying gold. It certainly isn't the Europeans who are buying gold. Most individual European investors know as little about gold (and value gold as little) as their American counterparts. When the US financial media utter their textbook mantra for explaining gold's powerful rise in dollar terms (i.e., "a lower dollar makes gold more affordable for buyers paying in euros") they are not saying that Europeans are on a buying binge.

As a side note: Whoever is out there doing this buying of gold for euros is a heck of a lot smarter than American gold investors. Americans collectively lose their pants every time COMEX gold takes a dip. "They" (whoever "they" are) are doing it right: they are buying gold when it gets cheaper instead of when it gets more expensive. If only Americans could learn from them!

So, who is winning? Is the US winning by figuratively letting go of the rope the ECB is pulling on in order to make them fall on their collective behinds? Or is it the ECB and the rest of the world, by having the last laugh because they hold in their hands the key to blowing the US economy sky-high?

Remember that the Asians, particularly China and Japan, hold huge amounts of dollar-claims in the form of Treasury debt. If they decide to accelerate their selling, US debt prices will collapse and long term rates will explode past the US' point of tolerance. The certain consequences of that have been discussed in these essays ad nauseam and need not be repeated here.

The German saying "Wer im Glashaus sitzt, soll nicht mit Steinen werfen." (He who sits in a house of glass shouldn't be throwing rocks) comes to mind.

The lower the US lets its currency fall, the more temptation the Asians feel to dump their US debt holdings, as they see their US "assets" depreciate with every tick lower by the dollar on its journey into forex "Hades." At some point, this temptation will become overwhelming. The US is currently betting that the Asians' point of no return comes after that of the Europeans. I don't think that's a safe bet to make.

No matter which way this battle turns out, if you put a good portion of your assets in gold, you can afford to sit on the sidelines and simply "watch the game." Whoever wins or loses, you will be (economically, at least) safe from the carnage on the playing field. While the euro's rise against the dollar certainly gives US gold investors a boost, even a total collapse of the euro system will be good for gold.

Why? Because the international move away from the dollar has become a do-or-die necessity. If there is no euro, that move will be directly into gold as the ultimate currency reserve. The euro was just interposed to make that transition less painful.

Either way, it will be nice to own some gold before that comes to pass.




© 2004 Alex Wallenwein
Editorial Archive

[djovarius]

Boa noite e boa semana para todos com os melhores negócios possíveis.

Temos mais uma semana em que o EUR/USD poderá ir mais longe antes de retrair. A alternativa será uma pequena queda nos valores actuais para aliviar o extremo sentimento "bull". O mercado o dirá.
Na semana passada foi a 1.3003 - um recorde de mais de oito anos e estamos mesmo em cima desses valores.

Ciclo semanal normal:
1.27 – 1.32 (ponto pivot 1.29 – repete)
Ciclo semanal extremo:
1.26 – 1.3250
Resistências: 1.30 – 1.3050 – 1.3070 – 1.3150 – 1.3190 – 1.3250
Suportes: 1.2930 – 1.29 – 1.2880 – 1.2840 – 1.2770 – 1.2750 – 1.2710 – 1.2650

Nos gráficos vemos também as possíveis retracções de Fibo.

Um abraço

djovarius