Como se combate o populismo? "Com eleições", responde Fukuyama

[Visitante]

AMD's better chips, results drive stock
Intel's missteps present an opportunity for smaller rival

By Chris Kraeuter, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 8:06 PM ET Dec. 6, 2004


SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- AMD, the computer chipmaker that has long been second to Intel, has gained on its larger rival this year, and investors have noticed.



Thanks to more reliable manufacturing capabilities and technical leaps that have boosted the quantity and quality of AMD chips, as well as an improved balance sheet, the company has seen its shares bid up to a three-year high.

Intel, meanwhile has been hampered in 2004 by excess inventory and production missteps. As a result, AMD (AMD: news, chart, profile) shares are up 65 percent this year as of Monday to $24.85, even as Intel's (INTC: news, chart, profile) are down 25 percent to $24.01.

"Investors are giving them credit for the share they are gaining and their performance," said analyst Kevin Rottinghaus with FTN Midwest Research.

Now, AMD may be on the verge of doing something it's never done: breaking the monopoly that Intel has enjoyed as the lone supplier of chips to Dell (DELL: news, chart, profile), the world's largest computer maker.

Dell executives have said that they are evaluating AMD's Opteron chips for possible use in their servers. While Dell has evaluated AMD products in the past without choosing them, and the company's plans are not a sure thing, analysts say that it's likely a matter of time before Dell starts using AMD's chips.

The reason: For the first time in years, the smaller chipmaker has better technology.

"My opinion is this is certainly going to happen," added Rottinghaus.

He estimated actual Dell products with AMD's chips could be another year away, while indicating that the products make an ideal fit for Dell.

A long rivalry

AMD and Intel have battled for years in the lucrative market of semiconductors for PCs, laptops and servers. Intel has consistently trounced AMD in terms of technology and financial performance, but AMD is ahead on both counts this year.

While Intel remains the dominant force in the semiconductor industry, getting its chips into four of every five computers made in the world, the Santa Clara, Calif.-based giant has struggled this year under an inventory bloat and product missteps.

In contrast, AMD has avoided the inventory and execution problems that have plagued its rival. It was the first to make chips capable of processing data in chunks of 32 and 64 bits at a time. In addition, based on the two company's technology road maps, Sunnyvale, Calif.-based AMD will likely beat Intel in the production of dual-core microprocessors.

A production deal AMD announced last month with Chartered Semiconductor (CHRT: news, chart, profile), the world's third-largest contract chip manufacturer, also will expand its capacity starting in 2006.

What's more, AMD is also shoring up its balance sheet; getting its debt upgraded by Fitch Ratings last week; using a substantial amount of public financing to help build a next-generation factory in Germany; and leveraging a joint venture with Fujitsu to seize the lead from Intel in an important market for memory chips.

Getting into Dell

But the deal with Dell would be the most significant sign yet that AMD is capable of competing and consistently winning against Intel.

Round Rock, Texas-based Dell is lauded for its supply chain management and operational efficiency.

It is the second largest purchaser of semiconductors and operates with only a few days' worth of inventory on hand. Dell's business model demands that suppliers meet its mass volume needs with minimal disruptions.

Joe Clabby, principal with research firm Clabby Analytics, said AMD has helped address fears of server buyers and sellers by improving its execution and financial performance. He added that this is likely why Dell is considering currently AMD's chips.



Analyst Patrick Ho with Moors & Cabot also has heard the growing speculation about Dell and AMD, so he wouldn't be surprised by a production deal, but he said that Intel isn't going to give up this account easily.

"This is a prized account for Intel," Ho added. "They may take whatever action is necessary to continue to be their sole source provider, which could mean better pricing or accelerating technology transitions."

Ho indicated that Intel has stumbled in the past, only for AMD to squander its opportunity. He cited Intel's $475 million Pentium recall in 1995 and AMD's subsequent wasting of its short-term gains.

For its part, Intel has said that it will defend its turf. "We take all of our competition seriously and would fight to keep any business we have with any customer," said company spokesman Robert Manetta.

Intel's better than expected performance in the year's final quarter also suggests that the chip giant won't go away without a fight, especially if it involves a key customer.

Nevertheless, it's clear that Intel has suffered this year. The No. 1 chipmaker has endured a year of technical glitches, as well as an inventory bloat that has depressed sales and margins.

The struggles became such a distraction that Chief Executive Craig Barrett sent a staffwide e-mail in July, admonishing employees for a lack of focus and promising a better performing company in the future.



Opteron optimism

AMD owes much of its recent success to its improved technology. The Opteron became the first chip capable of handling 32- and 64-bit applications simultaneously in April 2003. AMD has since launched desktop chips based on the same technology.

IBM (IBM: news, chart, profile), the first major server manufacturer to sell Opteron, said the technology has been a success.

"[It] has been extraordinarily well accepted," said Dave Turek, vice president of IBM's deep computing, the supercomputing and high-performance computing unit.

Since IBM signed on, all the other major server makers now carry AMD's Opteron platform -- with the exception of Dell.

"Our view was based on input from serious customers that Opteron would be a real big thing," added Turek. "It made no sense for us to sit on the sidelines while an emerging technology entered the marketplace presenting apparent advantages."

IBM also sells servers using its own Power brand of processors, as well as with chips from Intel and Sun Microsystems (SUNW: news, chart, profile). Turek said customers are not showing much brand loyalty to Intel's dominant Xeon platform, and instead are immediately buying the chips that will benefit them the most.

AMD has signed up 25 of the Fortune 100 companies as Opteron customers, a notable achievement 18 months after the chip's introduction and only three years after AMD entered the server space.

Dell is losing out by not offering Opteron, according to Turek. "They are the only ones who don't offer Opteron," he added, "so everyone else has the advantage and opportunity to present a robust portfolio of choices that customers may choose from."

It's the prospect of lost sales that may finally spur Dell to strike a deal with AMD.

"The problems Intel has had have opened a door in the market for AMD to gain a foothold," said analyst Steve Kleynhans with Meta Group. "The missteps haven't directly hurt Dell, but they've created a market opening that Dell has to respond to."


Chris Kraeuter is a reporter for CBS.MarketWatch.com in San Francisco.

[pedras11]

Cada um faz as interpretações(apostas) que pensa estarem correctas, a bolsa é mesmo assim. E dou o exemplo dos dois vendedores de sapatos que foram para África, um deles veio triste dizendo que seria mau negócio lá, porque toda a gente andava descalça. Já o outro mais optimista, veio eufórico, pois se toda a gente andava descalça ia ser só vender sapatos. Perante um gráfico igual, várias interpretações se podem fazer(ás vezes até depende do estado de espirito) Bons negócios a todos.

[Quico]

Porque é que não acredito nos meus gráficos? - Parte 2

[Ertai]

AMD - Palavras para quê? Parte 2:

[Ertai]

Não comparem AMD ás smallcaps..

E sim, valorizou 100% nos ultimos 3 meses... e AMD é AMD, a roubar cada vez mais o negocio à Intel..

Daqui a uns anos vai ser tão grande como a Intel, e depois comparam-na ás Smallcaps

Abraços!

[Quico]

Essa piada era pra mim?

[jarc]

Valves essa está bem metida. Na mouche! Falta aí referir que às vezes o jogo está com bom aspecto para o pato meter a cabeça (principalmente nas small caps).

[valves]

O que eu acho piada neste jogo da bolsa ( sim porque é um jogo quer se queira quer não ) é que existem por vezes dezenas de titulos em todos os mercados d mundo que se apresentam com aspecto interessante há para todos os gostos e todos os feitios

[Quico]

Faltava o gráfico:

[Quico]

Ertai:

Se me permites, meter a minha colherada...

A AMD está a atacar uma linha de resistência (antiga, eu sei... mas está lá!), e poderá ficar a marinar por ali uns tempos.

Por outro lado, apesenta um sinal muito interessante (para quem investe a médio prazo): a MM200 está a inflectir para cima e a ser ultrapassada em alta pela MM50. Da última vez que isso aconteceu, veio dos $7 aos $15.

Mas isto é a gente a falar...

[serginho]

Agradeço a atençao.Vou aguardar.

[Ertai]

Na minha sincera opinião?

Neste momento não, esperar que retraia e talvez depois entrar... Mas continuará com bom aspecto nas próximas semanas se mantiver-se acima dos 20 Dólares.
Mas com euforias destas não me admirava nada se continuasse 2ªfeira a bater novos máximos.. uma vez que ainda nem vela de inversão fez..

[serginho]

Nao tendo grande expriencia na Bolsa, gostava que me informasse se ainda sera boa altura para entrar nessa acçao.

Obrigado

[Ertai]

Com a Intel a perder cada vez mais terreno para a AMD, e com os críticos a renderem-se à performance dos novos CPUs. O Futuro RoadMap da AMD a conseguir ser mais ousada que a Intel e com cerca de 6 meses de avanço em termos de novidades tecnológicas nos processadores..

E por fim, com um aspecto técnico aliado ao fundamental... palavras para quê?

Encontra-se já perto dos 21 Dólares neste momento...