Diesel europeu duplica de valor e ameaça afetar todos os preços

[previsor]

Crimea was never Russian
Crimea is no bargaining chip in a geopolitical game; it is my homeland and I will not give it up, just like my Crimean Tatar ancestors did not

https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2023 ... er-russian

Acho que apenas haverá uma possível paz, se a Crimeia e algumas regiões Ucranianas se tornarem independentes.... não ficando russas nem ucranianas!!!
E só isso terá o apoio (mesmo com reservas, de muitos outros países)...

Acho que isso não vai acontecer, porque a Rússia opõe-se à independência dessas regiões. A Russia nem sequer deixa a Ucrânia ser independente. Quer mandar nela da mesma forma que manda na Bielorrússia.

Segundo a Rússia, a Ucrânia deve desistir de ingressar na UE e na OTAN para restaurar a paz
https://www.topky.sk/cl/11/2528565/MIMO ... ymsky-most

O problema tambem não é a falta de apoio de outros paises, uma vez que a maioria considera que a Crimeia e as outras regiões pertencem à Ucrânia e que as ocupações são ilegais.

Acho que a situação só pode ser resolvida através de um conflito militar e ou do afastamento de Putin.

Vamos ver se vão conseguir pela via militar

Ucrânia anuncia contra-ofensiva: “Chegou a hora de recuperar o que é nosso”
https://www.publico.pt/2023/05/27/mundo ... ar-2051280

[PMP69]

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1661995451845955586

Na Europa há cerca de 220 F-16, tantos como no Egipto, um dos maiores operadores de F-16. No entanto, estes são Block 40 e 50.


Pedro

[PMP69]

Alguma informação sobre JAS 39 Gripen.

Acrescentar que consegue operar em pistas mais pequenas, em relação ao F-16.

https://www.globaldefensecorp.com/2021/01/07/gripen/

Pedro

[PMP69]

Penso que os jactos já são, em larga medida, a pensar no longo-prazo, pós-pacificação (mas primeiro era preciso chegar à pacificação, o que me parece bastante complicado no imediato, talvez ainda mais agora com estes desenvolvimentos recentes). Mas a minha interpretação é que a aliança ocidental terá em mente que com uma força aérea decente, seria mais fácil assegurar o cumprimento de qualquer acordo que se venha a fazer (isto é, prevenir uma nova reinvestida russa).

Sweden could allow Ukrainian pilots to train in its own fighter jets - as it softens stance on sending aircraft

Sweden could allow Ukrainian pilots to test its own fighter jets - the JAS-39 Gripen.

The country's defence minister Pal Jonsson says the government is considering whether to let Ukrainian pilots test the Swedish jets.

It is a significant softening of policy from Sweden and comes after the US agreed to allow Western nations to export American-made F-16s to Ukraine.

The Nordic country has previously ruled out sending any Gripen fighters, saying they are needed for its own territorial defence.

But, speaking to Swedish media, Jonsson says the country is looking with a “positive spirit” on a Ukrainian request to allow its pilots to try out the Swedish plane.

“That could, for example, mean test flights, using simulators, learning more about the extensive ground system that is part of the Gripen system," he says.

However, he reiterates that Sweden has no immediate plans to transfer Gripen planes to Ukraine.

The Gripen is a single-engine aircraft designed to take off and land from dispersed bases and even highways, which some analysts say would make it a good fit for Ukraine's air force, which currently relies on Soviet-era fighters.

Sky News

Aviões como os F-16 ou JAS 39 Gripen e mísseis de médio/longo alcance, como os Storm Shadow, já fornecidos pelo RU ou os ATACMS americanos, são essenciais para a Ucrânia conseguir chegar às fronteiras de 2014.

Pessoalmente, acho que esta guerra não tem uma solução militar, pois mesmo retomadas as fronteiras anteriores a 2014, os militares da RPL e RPD, apoiados pelos russos, transforma esta guerra numa guerra de guerrilha (mais de 2.000 kms de fronteira). Solução negocial, também não vejo como, enquanto o Ocidente apoiar a Ucrânia e o poder do Kremlin não mude radicalmente.

O ocidente e em especial os EUA não querem uma vitória "rápida" da Ucrânia, pois Putin resiste a uma derrota militar. No entanto, pode não resistir às convulsões internas provocadas por anos de guerra.


Pedro

[yggy]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1661355843214770177

[MarcoAntonio]

Penso que os jactos já são, em larga medida, a pensar no longo-prazo, pós-pacificação (mas primeiro era preciso chegar à pacificação, o que me parece bastante complicado no imediato, talvez ainda mais agora com estes desenvolvimentos recentes). Mas a minha interpretação é que a aliança ocidental terá em mente que com uma força aérea decente, seria mais fácil assegurar o cumprimento de qualquer acordo que se venha a fazer (isto é, prevenir uma nova reinvestida russa).

Sweden could allow Ukrainian pilots to train in its own fighter jets - as it softens stance on sending aircraft

Sweden could allow Ukrainian pilots to test its own fighter jets - the JAS-39 Gripen.

The country's defence minister Pal Jonsson says the government is considering whether to let Ukrainian pilots test the Swedish jets.

It is a significant softening of policy from Sweden and comes after the US agreed to allow Western nations to export American-made F-16s to Ukraine.

The Nordic country has previously ruled out sending any Gripen fighters, saying they are needed for its own territorial defence.

But, speaking to Swedish media, Jonsson says the country is looking with a “positive spirit” on a Ukrainian request to allow its pilots to try out the Swedish plane.

“That could, for example, mean test flights, using simulators, learning more about the extensive ground system that is part of the Gripen system," he says.

However, he reiterates that Sweden has no immediate plans to transfer Gripen planes to Ukraine.

The Gripen is a single-engine aircraft designed to take off and land from dispersed bases and even highways, which some analysts say would make it a good fit for Ukraine's air force, which currently relies on Soviet-era fighters.

Sky News

[PMP69]

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1661634853605965824

Prigozhin anuncia rotação de tropas em Bakhmut, onde andam os Gen. Shoigu e Gerasimov?

Será que as forças regulares russas vão conseguir aguentar as posições?

Para onde vão ser transferidos os GTB do Grupo Wagner que restam?

Mesmo não gostando, temos que reconhecer que o Grupo Wagner é muito mais competente que as forças regulares russas.


Pedro

[PMP69]

O Grupo Wagner é a PWC que tem maior presença na Ucrânia, mas há outras, como a Redut (sediada em Kubinka), Gazpromneft Security e Potok (Gazprom), Don Brigade (Cossacos), Moran Security, Slavonic Corps e ENOT Corp.

Algumas delas com presença na Síria e desde 2014 na Ucrânia.


Pedro

[BearManBull]

África (Mali, Sudão, Líbia, República Centro-Africana e Moçambique) é provavelmente a principal fonte de financiamento do Grupo Wagner.

Neste momento parece estar a ser financiado pela UE/USA.

Entretanto o mapa de guerra continua inalterado...

[PMP69]

África (Mali, Sudão, Líbia, República Centro-Africana e Moçambique) é provavelmente a principal fonte de financiamento do Grupo Wagner.

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/05/07/wagner-russia-africa-00095572

Pedro

[Marco Martins]

Crimea was never Russian
Crimea is no bargaining chip in a geopolitical game; it is my homeland and I will not give it up, just like my Crimean Tatar ancestors did not

https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2023 ... er-russian

Acho que apenas haverá uma possível paz, se a Crimeia e algumas regiões Ucranianas se tornarem independentes.... não ficando russas nem ucranianas!!!
E só isso terá o apoio (mesmo com reservas, de muitos outros países)...

[PMP69]

Estarão os russos à espera de um ataque na ponte de Kerch?

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1661285802284859392


Pedro

Mais uma imagem.

https://twitter.com/Azovsouth/status/1661294078233804800


Pedro

A "fumaça" poderá ter sido feita por um veículo autopropulsado TDA-3.

Serve para camuflar as tropas ou infraestruturas e descontaminação das mesmas.

Fica a dúvida se foi um exercício, ou algo mais.



Pedro

[PMP69]

Estarão os russos à espera de um ataque na ponte de Kerch?

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1661285802284859392


Pedro

Mais uma imagem.

https://twitter.com/Azovsouth/status/1661294078233804800


Pedro

[previsor]

Crimea was never Russian
Crimea is no bargaining chip in a geopolitical game; it is my homeland and I will not give it up, just like my Crimean Tatar ancestors did not

https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2023 ... er-russian

[rollingsnowball]

The Freedom for Russia Legion – a group that has claimed responsibility for an apparent incursion inside Russian territory – has one ambition. As “Caesar” says in a video statement he recorded with his comrades before joining a cross-border raid into his motherland: “Russia will be free.”

The group numbers a few hundred of diehard, battle-hardened Russian volunteers fighting their own people as part of the Ukrainian armed forces. Caesar is a former teacher, a father and has a wife living in Kyiv. He told CNN last year that he had dedicated his life to toppling Russian President Vladimir Putin and marching into Red Square and the Kremlin itself.

Caesar is a devoted member of the Orthodox Church and is nostalgic for the Tsarist era that predated the Soviet Union. His unit is well-equipped with modern armored vehicles, gunsights and the latest automatic weapons.

Previously engaged in bitter fighting south of Bakhmut, the Freedom for Russia Legion now claims to have crossed into Russia itself and, as of late afternoon on Monday, was continuing combat operations against Russian forces in areas close to the frontier.

In a Telegram post, the group said it had “liberated” a settlement in Russia's Belgorod region.

Ukrainian officials acknowledged that the unit crossed into Russia, but insist that members of the legion were operating independently as "Russian citizens."

The Legionnaires themselves have admitted that they’re often treated with suspicion by Ukrainian soldiers but hope to win them over with gallantry on the battlefield.

Their apparent incursion along a border that’s frequently used by Russian mortar teams and artillery as a firebase for attacks inside Ukraine will help further cement their reputation.

It also serves as part of ongoing psychological operations intended to undermine support for the war in Russia and the fighting spirit of Russian soldiers themselves – signaling that they could be attacked at any time and even by their own countrymen.

Isto sim seria o ideal que os próprios russos terminassem a guerra.

Devem ser tão russos como eu ou tu...
Achei interessante esta parte: His unit is well-equipped with modern armored vehicles, gunsights and the latest automatic weapons.

Não há qualquer dúvida que são russos, caso contrário isto já estaria a ser aproveitado oelo governo russo. Para além disso há videos de alguns dos envolvidos e alguns são caras conhecidas: um deles é até um ex agente do FSB (o FBI da Rússia).
Há muitos voluntários de terceiros países a combater pelas forças ucranianas, vários deles alocados por legiões junto com outros dos seus países:
tens a legião georgiana (fugidos do país deles onde está agora um governo pro russo),
a bileorrussa (idem),
a Russa (idem, são estes russos, mas já combateram previamente pelos ucranianos nesta guerra)… os ucranianos não lhes dariam as armas se não tivessem dado provas de serem de confiança…
e de voluntários de vários países quer da NATO (americanos, britânicos e polacos fundamentalmente, mas também dos países nórdicos)
quer extra Nato (quer ex soviéticos quer outros: já vi um vídeo de um israelita a partilhar uma trincheira com um palestiniano a fazerem cada um as suas rezas enquanto as explosões se aproximavam)

Quanto aos ucranianos negarem envolvimento é trolling ao mais alto nível: dizem exactamente o mesmo que os russos disseram em 2014 (“não temos nada a ver com isto. Estamos atentos. O material deles pode ser comprado em qualquer loja”)… aliás, o facto de usarem material americano será para deixar bem clara a mensagem (os supostos separatistas em 2014 tinham tanques, antiaéreas e um monte de equipamento exclusivo das forças armadas russas): é tudo material que pode ser comprado em qualquer loja…

[PMP69]

Estarão os russos à espera de um ataque na ponte de Kerch?

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1661285802284859392


Pedro

[PMP69]

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1660715908518629382

O BTR-82A é um veículo blindado de infantaria com um canhão de 30 mm.


Pedro

[MarcoAntonio]

Sobre o primeiro grupo e a decisão do Supremo da Rússia declarando-o como grupo terrorista em Março:

Russian Supreme Court Deems Freedom of Russia Legion Terrorist Organization

Russia's Supreme Court on Thursday granted a motion made by Prosecutor General Igor Krasnov to recognize the Freedom of Russia Legion as a terrorist organization, RIA Novosti reported.

Part of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the Freedom of Russia Legion was founded just over a year ago with the stated aim of freeing the occupied regions of Ukraine and overthrowing the “dictatorial regime of Vladimir Putin,” according to its manifesto.

Its members are mainly defectors from the Russian Armed Forces as well as Russian and Belarusian volunteers with no prior military background.

The Russian Prosecutor General’s Office argued that the legion has been established to “overthrow the government.”

The Supreme Court’s decision means that Russian citizens joining the legion now face up to two decades in jail, though Russians fighting alongside the Ukrainian Armed Forces have already been liable to criminal prosecution.

In January, Kirill Belousov, a 22-year-old resident of the Saratov region, was sentenced to five years hard labor for attempting to join the Freedom of Russia Legion. Some 20 legion members are already under investigation, according to TASS.

“Funny. The terrorist country turns the tables and stubbornly fights all expressions of free-thinking,” the legion wrote in response to the Supreme Court’s decision.

[MarcoAntonio]

Supostamente há, não um mas, pelo menos dois grupos a operar a partir da Ucrânia.

Russian Volunteer Corps

Freedom of Russia Legion

Ambos os grupos alegam estar a fazer incursões na Rússia. Pelo menos um dos grupos já foi indirectamente reconhecido pela Rússia, que o declarou um grupo terrorista, e o outro tem sido descrito como neo-nazi (incluindo pela imprensa internacional/europeia).



E existirá ainda um terceiro grupo que supostamente actua dentro da Russia:

National Republican Army

(este grupo reclama ser o autor do atentado que teria como alvo Alekander Dugin e que acabou por vitimizar a filha Darya Gugina, mas conforme o link acima não é dado como certo que o grupo exista sequer)

[rg7803]

The Freedom for Russia Legion – a group that has claimed responsibility for an apparent incursion inside Russian territory – has one ambition. As “Caesar” says in a video statement he recorded with his comrades before joining a cross-border raid into his motherland: “Russia will be free.”

The group numbers a few hundred of diehard, battle-hardened Russian volunteers fighting their own people as part of the Ukrainian armed forces. Caesar is a former teacher, a father and has a wife living in Kyiv. He told CNN last year that he had dedicated his life to toppling Russian President Vladimir Putin and marching into Red Square and the Kremlin itself.

Caesar is a devoted member of the Orthodox Church and is nostalgic for the Tsarist era that predated the Soviet Union. His unit is well-equipped with modern armored vehicles, gunsights and the latest automatic weapons.

Previously engaged in bitter fighting south of Bakhmut, the Freedom for Russia Legion now claims to have crossed into Russia itself and, as of late afternoon on Monday, was continuing combat operations against Russian forces in areas close to the frontier.

In a Telegram post, the group said it had “liberated” a settlement in Russia's Belgorod region.

Ukrainian officials acknowledged that the unit crossed into Russia, but insist that members of the legion were operating independently as "Russian citizens."

The Legionnaires themselves have admitted that they’re often treated with suspicion by Ukrainian soldiers but hope to win them over with gallantry on the battlefield.

Their apparent incursion along a border that’s frequently used by Russian mortar teams and artillery as a firebase for attacks inside Ukraine will help further cement their reputation.

It also serves as part of ongoing psychological operations intended to undermine support for the war in Russia and the fighting spirit of Russian soldiers themselves – signaling that they could be attacked at any time and even by their own countrymen.

Isto sim seria o ideal que os próprios russos terminassem a guerra.

Devem ser tão russos como eu ou tu...
Achei interessante esta parte: His unit is well-equipped with modern armored vehicles, gunsights and the latest automatic weapons.

[BearManBull]

The Freedom for Russia Legion – a group that has claimed responsibility for an apparent incursion inside Russian territory – has one ambition. As “Caesar” says in a video statement he recorded with his comrades before joining a cross-border raid into his motherland: “Russia will be free.”

The group numbers a few hundred of diehard, battle-hardened Russian volunteers fighting their own people as part of the Ukrainian armed forces. Caesar is a former teacher, a father and has a wife living in Kyiv. He told CNN last year that he had dedicated his life to toppling Russian President Vladimir Putin and marching into Red Square and the Kremlin itself.

Caesar is a devoted member of the Orthodox Church and is nostalgic for the Tsarist era that predated the Soviet Union. His unit is well-equipped with modern armored vehicles, gunsights and the latest automatic weapons.

Previously engaged in bitter fighting south of Bakhmut, the Freedom for Russia Legion now claims to have crossed into Russia itself and, as of late afternoon on Monday, was continuing combat operations against Russian forces in areas close to the frontier.

In a Telegram post, the group said it had “liberated” a settlement in Russia's Belgorod region.

Ukrainian officials acknowledged that the unit crossed into Russia, but insist that members of the legion were operating independently as "Russian citizens."

The Legionnaires themselves have admitted that they’re often treated with suspicion by Ukrainian soldiers but hope to win them over with gallantry on the battlefield.

Their apparent incursion along a border that’s frequently used by Russian mortar teams and artillery as a firebase for attacks inside Ukraine will help further cement their reputation.

It also serves as part of ongoing psychological operations intended to undermine support for the war in Russia and the fighting spirit of Russian soldiers themselves – signaling that they could be attacked at any time and even by their own countrymen.

Isto sim seria o ideal que os próprios russos terminassem a guerra.

[Carrancho_]

Está tudo a dizer que a Ucrânia está a atacar Belgorod, querem ver que a contra ofensiva em vez de rer a recuperar território é a invadir parte da Rússia!!!

[BearManBull]

A reported 42,000 Ukrainian civilians have been killed since Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022, U.S. officials told Fox News.

[PMP69]

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1660178825265684481

https://twitter.com/bradyafr/status/1659962185064280064


Pedro

[PMP69]

Pikas, não tenho uma visão muito diferente da tua em relação aos EUA, pelo menos no passado e presente. Tem ainda a agravante da política externa mudar consoante a cor da administração.

Em relação ao futuro, acho que a disputa EUA/China está em curso aos anos, e que militarmente vai passar pelo domínio aéreo e naval.

Ontem ouvi um alto responsável militar da Nato afirmar que a Rússia nunca teve o domínio aéreo, o que é verdade é fácil explicar porque.

Daí, apesar de não ser especialista em poder aéreo, acho que a Ucrânia precisa de 50 caças ocidentais, que lhes permitam atacar posições atrás das linhas russas, pois o apoio à infantaria está a ser feito. Ainda à uns dias vi um vídeo de dois Mi-8 a regressarem de uma operação Bakhmut.

Acrescentar que o espaço aéreo da Turquia à Finlândia está a ser patrulhado pela Nato, incluindo a FAP, pelo que, uma boa parte desses países podem ceder aviões à Ucrânia.


Pedro