“Confiança” na dívida da periferia é “positiva”

[mais_um]

Eu penso o mesmo desde o fim de 2012, mas por motivos diferentes. Parece-me excessivo a questão das OT a 30 anos, até porque o valor em causa é minimo, cerca de 7 mil milhões de €, ( a divida total é +/- 203 mil milhões €).

[Pata-Hari]

Long-dated Portuguese Bonds Approach Restructuring Levels



By Nick Cawley
—Bloomberg
Portuguese politicians still have a few days to go before their self-imposed deadline to forge a “national salvation pact” and find a way to reaffirm their commitment the country’s bailout terms.

But many bond investors, it seems, have already already made up their mind: the country just isn’t going to be able to pay back its debt, as it stands.

Bank of America-Merrill Lynch reckons that looking at the current price of the country’s 30-year bonds—around 65 cents on the euro—bond investors are already pricing in a “significant possibility of a debt restructuring.”

And with both 5-year and 10-year Portuguese yields currently flirting with the 7% level (bond yields rise as prices fall, and 7% isn’t good), the bank points out that the prospects of Portugal being able to fund itself independently in the capital markets by mid-2014 are diminishing substantially.

As BAML points out: “Recall that this is the level at which both Ireland and Portugal stopped selling bonds and at which Spain was rescued” by the European Central Bank’s promise to buy their bonds—the as-yet unused bazooka that is the Outright Monetary Transactions program (OMT or ‘Operation Save The Euro’ to its friends).

BAML does not think a restructuring is a done deal. “For Portuguese bonds, the most likely scenario remains one of muddling through. The majority of likely outcomes result in no debt restructuring, in our view,” said BAML rates analysts Ralf Preusser, Sphia Salim and European economist Ruben Segura-Cayuela in a note to clients.

Still, fully to price in a restructuring, Portuguese bonds across all the main maturities should probably bottom out at around 60 cents on the euro, the bank’s analysts reckon—not a million miles away from current levels on the 30-year bonds, but well below the 84.50-cent point at which the 10-year bonds trade.

The good-ish news is that short-term bonds are not under the same pressure right now, as they probably would not be involved in a restructuring anyway. Anyone who doesn’t buy the notion that a restructuring is coming could do worse than holding an equally -weighted combination of the lowly-priced 30-year bonds with an equal amount of short-dated 1-year bills which should be exempt from losses in any debt restructuring, the bank said.