Reino Unido - Downgraded AAA-->Aa1 - Moody’s
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To Save The British Economy, David Cameron Has To Do The Hardest Thing Any Politician Ever Has To Do
The UK finally lost its AAA rating on Friday. Moody's dinged it one notch.
The downgrade is expected to have almost no real market impact, expect that it's temporarily slightly negative for the pound.
That being said, it is a good time to take stock of the situation in the UK, which has not only been downgraded, it's also on the verge of a triple dip recession.
When David Cameron came to power he won praise for pursuing an austerity agenda (unlike Obama) but it's flopped.
In a great post, the brilliant pseudonymous finance twitter/blogger @barnejek, asks if Britain has finally cornered itself with its current mix of policy.
He starts by noting...
"I would like to thank the British government for conducting a massive social experiment, which will be used in decades to come as a proof that a tight fiscal/loose monetary policy mix does not work in an environment of a liquidity trap. We sort of knew that from the theory anyway but now we have plenty of data to base that on."
This idea that Britain has conducted a huge social experiment is not spoken loudly, since it's insensitive, but it's one that economists have talked about. People like that Britain has blown its recovery, because it shows that the theory behind austerity is bunk.
After walking through some slightly technical economics, he goes on to argue that the only hope now is that Britain take a "stop loss" on its austerity agenda, and spend more.
"I do believe that Britain has finally cornered itself into a situation where there is overwhelming evidence that Mr Osborne should really start spending. He should also assume that Mr Carney will not let that spending lead to appreciation of Real Effective Exchange Rate (a bit more on that mechanism in one of my previous posts entitled “Be careful what you target or am I in the right church?“). That is to say that the Bank of England will keep nominal and real rates very low. In my opinion this is the only rational way of the situation that we’re currently in. Then again, I am assuming the impossible here, i.e. that the politicians know what the stop-loss is."
This advice is very similar to a column by Dr. Gerard Lyons, the chief economic advisor to London Mayor Boris Johnson, and the former top economist at Standard Chartered.
Says Lyons: The UK must spend, and banks must lend.
"Judging by the still pessimistic tone at the beginning of this year, it would seem few are expecting things to go well in 2013. Yet I just wonder whether this may be the year the economy surprises on the upside.
But if it is then the UK needs three things – to spend, lend and change. The economy is suffering from a lack of demand. There needs to be more spending by the Government on both infrastructure and construction and people and firms with the ability to spend need to be given the confidence to do so. There has to be more lending by the banks. And the supply side of the economy needs a helping hand and thus there has to be change – which is all part of repositioning the UK in the changing global economy.
The ratings downgrade by Moody's reflects concern about the growth outlook. That is understandable but we should not panic. The UK has gone from the highest to a still high rating and its borrowing rates will stay low."
That's right. In the wake of a debt downgrade, David Cameron must spend more money. This is incredibly difficult, since prima facie, it would fly in the face of the downgrade.
And more importantly, it would basically require him (and his finance minister George Osborne) to admit that they were totally wrong since the crisis. That's the really hard part. Perhaps even impossible. But that's what it will take.
in http://www.businessinsider.com/to-save- ... -do-2013-2
The UK finally lost its AAA rating on Friday. Moody's dinged it one notch.
The downgrade is expected to have almost no real market impact, expect that it's temporarily slightly negative for the pound.
That being said, it is a good time to take stock of the situation in the UK, which has not only been downgraded, it's also on the verge of a triple dip recession.
When David Cameron came to power he won praise for pursuing an austerity agenda (unlike Obama) but it's flopped.
In a great post, the brilliant pseudonymous finance twitter/blogger @barnejek, asks if Britain has finally cornered itself with its current mix of policy.
He starts by noting...
"I would like to thank the British government for conducting a massive social experiment, which will be used in decades to come as a proof that a tight fiscal/loose monetary policy mix does not work in an environment of a liquidity trap. We sort of knew that from the theory anyway but now we have plenty of data to base that on."
This idea that Britain has conducted a huge social experiment is not spoken loudly, since it's insensitive, but it's one that economists have talked about. People like that Britain has blown its recovery, because it shows that the theory behind austerity is bunk.
After walking through some slightly technical economics, he goes on to argue that the only hope now is that Britain take a "stop loss" on its austerity agenda, and spend more.
"I do believe that Britain has finally cornered itself into a situation where there is overwhelming evidence that Mr Osborne should really start spending. He should also assume that Mr Carney will not let that spending lead to appreciation of Real Effective Exchange Rate (a bit more on that mechanism in one of my previous posts entitled “Be careful what you target or am I in the right church?“). That is to say that the Bank of England will keep nominal and real rates very low. In my opinion this is the only rational way of the situation that we’re currently in. Then again, I am assuming the impossible here, i.e. that the politicians know what the stop-loss is."
This advice is very similar to a column by Dr. Gerard Lyons, the chief economic advisor to London Mayor Boris Johnson, and the former top economist at Standard Chartered.
Says Lyons: The UK must spend, and banks must lend.
"Judging by the still pessimistic tone at the beginning of this year, it would seem few are expecting things to go well in 2013. Yet I just wonder whether this may be the year the economy surprises on the upside.
But if it is then the UK needs three things – to spend, lend and change. The economy is suffering from a lack of demand. There needs to be more spending by the Government on both infrastructure and construction and people and firms with the ability to spend need to be given the confidence to do so. There has to be more lending by the banks. And the supply side of the economy needs a helping hand and thus there has to be change – which is all part of repositioning the UK in the changing global economy.
The ratings downgrade by Moody's reflects concern about the growth outlook. That is understandable but we should not panic. The UK has gone from the highest to a still high rating and its borrowing rates will stay low."
That's right. In the wake of a debt downgrade, David Cameron must spend more money. This is incredibly difficult, since prima facie, it would fly in the face of the downgrade.
And more importantly, it would basically require him (and his finance minister George Osborne) to admit that they were totally wrong since the crisis. That's the really hard part. Perhaps even impossible. But that's what it will take.
in http://www.businessinsider.com/to-save- ... -do-2013-2
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Elias Escreveu:A notícia saiu sexta à noite.
Os jornais tugas só noticiaram isto no sábado.
O económico só deu conta disto no domingo à tarde
Isso por um lado é bom sinal... é sinal que o impacto na economia de um downgrade já não é assim tão grande!
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não necessariamente, os rumores já andavam aí há dois dias
http://www.intereconomia.com/blog/blog- ... s-20130220
http://www.intereconomia.com/blog/blog- ... s-20130220
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Rating Action: Moody's downgrades UK's government bond rating to Aa1 from Aaa; outlook is now stable
Global Credit Research - 22 Feb 2013
London, 22 February 2013 -- Moody's Investors Service has today downgraded the domestic- and foreign-currency government bond ratings of the United Kingdom by one notch to Aa1 from Aaa. The outlook on the ratings is now stable.
The key interrelated drivers of today's action are:
1. The continuing weakness in the UK's medium-term growth outlook, with a period of sluggish growth which Moody's now expects will extend into the second half of the decade;
2. The challenges that subdued medium-term growth prospects pose to the government's fiscal consolidation programme, which will now extend well into the next parliament;
3. And, as a consequence of the UK's high and rising debt burden, a deterioration in the shock-absorption capacity of the government's balance sheet, which is unlikely to reverse before 2016.
At the same time, Moody's explains that the UK's creditworthiness remains extremely high, rated at Aa1, because of the country's significant credit strengths. These include (i) a highly competitive, well-diversified economy; (ii) a strong track record of fiscal consolidation and a robust institutional structure; and (iii) a favourable debt structure, with supportive domestic demand for government debt, the longest average maturity structure (15 years) among all highly rated sovereigns globally and the resulting reduced interest rate risk on UK debt.
The stable outlook on the UK's Aa1 sovereign rating reflects Moody's expectation that a combination of political will and medium-term fundamental underlying economic strengths will, in time, allow the government to implement its fiscal consolidation plan and reverse the UK's debt trajectory. Moreover, although the UK's economy has considerable risk exposure through trade and financial linkages to a potential escalation in the euro area sovereign debt crisis, its contagion risk is mitigated by the flexibility afforded by the UK's independent monetary policy framework and sterling's global reserve currency status.
In a related rating action, Moody's has today also downgraded the ratings of the Bank of England to Aa1 from Aaa. The issuer's P-1 rating is unaffected by this rating action. The rating outlook for this entity is now also stable.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The main driver underpinning Moody's decision to downgrade the UK's government bond rating to Aa1 is the increasing clarity that, despite considerable structural economic strengths, the UK's economic growth will remain sluggish over the next few years due to the anticipated slow growth of the global economy and the drag on the UK economy from the ongoing domestic public- and private-sector deleveraging process. Moody's says that the country's current economic recovery has already proven to be significantly slower -- and believes that it will likely remain so -- compared with the recovery observed after previous recessions, such as those of the 1970s, early 1980s and early 1990s. Moreover, while the government's recent Funding for Lending Scheme has the potential to support a surge in growth, Moody's believes the risks to the growth outlook remain skewed to the downside.
The sluggish growth environment in turn poses an increasing challenge to the government's fiscal consolidation efforts, which represents the second driver informing Moody's one-notch downgrade of the UK's sovereign rating. When Moody's changed the outlook on the UK's rating to negative in February 2012, the rating agency cited concerns over the increased uncertainty regarding the pace of fiscal consolidation due to materially weaker growth prospects, which contributed to higher than previously expected projections for the deficit, and consequently also an expected rise in the debt burden. Moody's now expects that the UK's gross general government debt level will peak at just over 96% of GDP in 2016. The rating agency says that it would have expected it to peak at a higher level if the government had not reduced its debt stock by transferring funds from the Asset Purchase Facility -- which will equal to roughly 3.7% of GDP in total -- as announced in November 2012.
More specifically, projected tax revenue increases have been difficult to achieve in the UK due to the challenging economic environment. As a result, the weaker economic outturn has substantially slowed the anticipated pace of deficit and debt-to-GDP reduction, and is likely to continue to do so over the medium term. After it was elected in 2010, the government outlined a fiscal consolidation programme that would run through this parliament's five-year term and place the net public-sector debt-to-GDP ratio on a declining trajectory by the 2015-16 financial year. (Although it was not one of the government's targets, Moody's had expected the UK's gross general government debt -- a key debt metric in the rating agency's analysis -- to start declining in the 2014-15 financial year.) Now, however, the government has announced that fiscal consolidation will extend into the next parliament, which necessarily makes their implementation less certain.
Taken together, the slower-than-expected recovery, the higher debt load and the policy uncertainties combine to form the third driver of today's rating action -- namely, the erosion of the shock-absorption capacity of the UK's balance sheet. Moody's believes that the mounting debt levels in a low-growth environment have impaired the sovereign's ability to contain and quickly reverse the impact of adverse economic or financial shocks. For example, given the pace of deficit and debt reduction that Moody's has observed since 2010, there is a risk that the UK government may not be able to reverse the debt trajectory before the next economic shock or cyclical downturn in the economy.
In summary, although the UK's debt-servicing capacity remains very strong and very capable of withstanding further adverse economic and financial shocks, it does not at present possess the extraordinary resilience common to other Aaa-rated issuers.
RATIONALE FOR STABLE OUTLOOK
The stable outlook on the UK's Aa1 sovereign rating partly reflects the strengths that underpin the Aa1 rating itself -- the underlying economic strength and fiscal policy commitment which Moody's expects will ultimately allow the UK government to reverse the debt trajectory. The stable outlook is also an indication of the fact that Moody's does not expect further additional material deterioration in the UK's economic prospects or additional material difficulties in implementing fiscal consolidation. It also reflects the greater capacity of the UK government compared with its euro area peers to absorb shocks resulting from any further escalation in the euro area sovereign debt crisis, given (1) the absence of the contingent liabilities from mutual support mechanisms that euro area members face; (2) the UK's more limited trade dependence on the euro area; and (3) the policy flexibility that the UK derives from having its own national currency, which is a global reserve currency. Lastly, the UK also benefits from a considerably longer-than-average debt-maturity schedule, making the country's debt-servicing costs less vulnerable to swings in interest rates.
Global Credit Research - 22 Feb 2013
London, 22 February 2013 -- Moody's Investors Service has today downgraded the domestic- and foreign-currency government bond ratings of the United Kingdom by one notch to Aa1 from Aaa. The outlook on the ratings is now stable.
The key interrelated drivers of today's action are:
1. The continuing weakness in the UK's medium-term growth outlook, with a period of sluggish growth which Moody's now expects will extend into the second half of the decade;
2. The challenges that subdued medium-term growth prospects pose to the government's fiscal consolidation programme, which will now extend well into the next parliament;
3. And, as a consequence of the UK's high and rising debt burden, a deterioration in the shock-absorption capacity of the government's balance sheet, which is unlikely to reverse before 2016.
At the same time, Moody's explains that the UK's creditworthiness remains extremely high, rated at Aa1, because of the country's significant credit strengths. These include (i) a highly competitive, well-diversified economy; (ii) a strong track record of fiscal consolidation and a robust institutional structure; and (iii) a favourable debt structure, with supportive domestic demand for government debt, the longest average maturity structure (15 years) among all highly rated sovereigns globally and the resulting reduced interest rate risk on UK debt.
The stable outlook on the UK's Aa1 sovereign rating reflects Moody's expectation that a combination of political will and medium-term fundamental underlying economic strengths will, in time, allow the government to implement its fiscal consolidation plan and reverse the UK's debt trajectory. Moreover, although the UK's economy has considerable risk exposure through trade and financial linkages to a potential escalation in the euro area sovereign debt crisis, its contagion risk is mitigated by the flexibility afforded by the UK's independent monetary policy framework and sterling's global reserve currency status.
In a related rating action, Moody's has today also downgraded the ratings of the Bank of England to Aa1 from Aaa. The issuer's P-1 rating is unaffected by this rating action. The rating outlook for this entity is now also stable.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The main driver underpinning Moody's decision to downgrade the UK's government bond rating to Aa1 is the increasing clarity that, despite considerable structural economic strengths, the UK's economic growth will remain sluggish over the next few years due to the anticipated slow growth of the global economy and the drag on the UK economy from the ongoing domestic public- and private-sector deleveraging process. Moody's says that the country's current economic recovery has already proven to be significantly slower -- and believes that it will likely remain so -- compared with the recovery observed after previous recessions, such as those of the 1970s, early 1980s and early 1990s. Moreover, while the government's recent Funding for Lending Scheme has the potential to support a surge in growth, Moody's believes the risks to the growth outlook remain skewed to the downside.
The sluggish growth environment in turn poses an increasing challenge to the government's fiscal consolidation efforts, which represents the second driver informing Moody's one-notch downgrade of the UK's sovereign rating. When Moody's changed the outlook on the UK's rating to negative in February 2012, the rating agency cited concerns over the increased uncertainty regarding the pace of fiscal consolidation due to materially weaker growth prospects, which contributed to higher than previously expected projections for the deficit, and consequently also an expected rise in the debt burden. Moody's now expects that the UK's gross general government debt level will peak at just over 96% of GDP in 2016. The rating agency says that it would have expected it to peak at a higher level if the government had not reduced its debt stock by transferring funds from the Asset Purchase Facility -- which will equal to roughly 3.7% of GDP in total -- as announced in November 2012.
More specifically, projected tax revenue increases have been difficult to achieve in the UK due to the challenging economic environment. As a result, the weaker economic outturn has substantially slowed the anticipated pace of deficit and debt-to-GDP reduction, and is likely to continue to do so over the medium term. After it was elected in 2010, the government outlined a fiscal consolidation programme that would run through this parliament's five-year term and place the net public-sector debt-to-GDP ratio on a declining trajectory by the 2015-16 financial year. (Although it was not one of the government's targets, Moody's had expected the UK's gross general government debt -- a key debt metric in the rating agency's analysis -- to start declining in the 2014-15 financial year.) Now, however, the government has announced that fiscal consolidation will extend into the next parliament, which necessarily makes their implementation less certain.
Taken together, the slower-than-expected recovery, the higher debt load and the policy uncertainties combine to form the third driver of today's rating action -- namely, the erosion of the shock-absorption capacity of the UK's balance sheet. Moody's believes that the mounting debt levels in a low-growth environment have impaired the sovereign's ability to contain and quickly reverse the impact of adverse economic or financial shocks. For example, given the pace of deficit and debt reduction that Moody's has observed since 2010, there is a risk that the UK government may not be able to reverse the debt trajectory before the next economic shock or cyclical downturn in the economy.
In summary, although the UK's debt-servicing capacity remains very strong and very capable of withstanding further adverse economic and financial shocks, it does not at present possess the extraordinary resilience common to other Aaa-rated issuers.
RATIONALE FOR STABLE OUTLOOK
The stable outlook on the UK's Aa1 sovereign rating partly reflects the strengths that underpin the Aa1 rating itself -- the underlying economic strength and fiscal policy commitment which Moody's expects will ultimately allow the UK government to reverse the debt trajectory. The stable outlook is also an indication of the fact that Moody's does not expect further additional material deterioration in the UK's economic prospects or additional material difficulties in implementing fiscal consolidation. It also reflects the greater capacity of the UK government compared with its euro area peers to absorb shocks resulting from any further escalation in the euro area sovereign debt crisis, given (1) the absence of the contingent liabilities from mutual support mechanisms that euro area members face; (2) the UK's more limited trade dependence on the euro area; and (3) the policy flexibility that the UK derives from having its own national currency, which is a global reserve currency. Lastly, the UK also benefits from a considerably longer-than-average debt-maturity schedule, making the country's debt-servicing costs less vulnerable to swings in interest rates.
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Moody's rebaixa rating do Reino Unido
Agência Estado
Publicação: 22/02/2013 19:31
A Moody's Investors Service rebaixou os ratings dos bônus governamentais em moeda local e em moeda estrangeira do Reino Unido para Aa1, de Aaa. A perspectiva dos ratings agora é estável.
A agência citou três fatores para sua decisão: "a debilidade contínua da perspectiva de crescimento do Reino Unido, com um período de crescimento fraco que a Moody's agora espera que vai se estender até a segunda metade da década", "os desafios que as perspectivas fracas de crescimento no médio prazo apresentam para o programa de consolidação fiscal do governo" e "como consequência da carga elevada e crescente da dívida, uma deterioração na capacidade do balanço patrimonial do governo para absorver choques, o que não deverá ser revertido antes de 2016".
A Moody's ressalvou que "a qualidade de crédito do Reino Unido permanece extremamente alta, com o rating Aa1", por causa de fatores como "uma economia altamente competitiva e bem diversificada, um histórico forte de consolidação fiscal e uma estrutura institucional robusta, uma estrutura de dívida favorável e com uma demanda doméstica forte por dívida do governo, com a estrutura de maturação média mais alta (15 anos) entre todos os soberanos de ratings elevados"
http://www.em.com.br/app/noticia/econom ... nido.shtml
Agência Estado
Publicação: 22/02/2013 19:31
A Moody's Investors Service rebaixou os ratings dos bônus governamentais em moeda local e em moeda estrangeira do Reino Unido para Aa1, de Aaa. A perspectiva dos ratings agora é estável.
A agência citou três fatores para sua decisão: "a debilidade contínua da perspectiva de crescimento do Reino Unido, com um período de crescimento fraco que a Moody's agora espera que vai se estender até a segunda metade da década", "os desafios que as perspectivas fracas de crescimento no médio prazo apresentam para o programa de consolidação fiscal do governo" e "como consequência da carga elevada e crescente da dívida, uma deterioração na capacidade do balanço patrimonial do governo para absorver choques, o que não deverá ser revertido antes de 2016".
A Moody's ressalvou que "a qualidade de crédito do Reino Unido permanece extremamente alta, com o rating Aa1", por causa de fatores como "uma economia altamente competitiva e bem diversificada, um histórico forte de consolidação fiscal e uma estrutura institucional robusta, uma estrutura de dívida favorável e com uma demanda doméstica forte por dívida do governo, com a estrutura de maturação média mais alta (15 anos) entre todos os soberanos de ratings elevados"
http://www.em.com.br/app/noticia/econom ... nido.shtml
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Reino Unido - Downgraded AAA-->Aa1 - Moody’s
Boa noite a todos.
Deixo aqui uma noticia de última hora.
"Britain's credit rating downgraded from AAA to Aa1"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/9889410/Britains-credit-rating-downgraded-from-AAA-to-Aa1.html
Bom fim de semana.
C.
Deixo aqui uma noticia de última hora.
"Britain's credit rating downgraded from AAA to Aa1"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/9889410/Britains-credit-rating-downgraded-from-AAA-to-Aa1.html
Bom fim de semana.
C.
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