Moody's Cuts France Credit Rating to Aa1 From

[Texano Bill]

A Moody's de certeza que teria noção desta consequência quando publicou o downgrade...
[/i]

Uma agência de rating reputada como a Moody's não deve fazer o trabalho consoante outros interesses. A situação da França já era conhecida e o EFSF está dependente da contribuição da França que dá garantia a 20% do fundo.
Já dizia o outro que o timming para as más notícias nunca é bom.

[MKlop]

O EFSF teve que negar a venda de €3mM em dívida por causa do downgrade da França.

A Moody's de certeza que teria noção desta consequência quando publicou o downgrade...

DJ EFSF Seen Facing Downgrade, Allowing New Bond Sale


By Art Patnaude

The European Financial Stability Facility is widely expected to receive a credit rating downgrade within the week, allowing it to resurrect plans to issue bonds after the rescue fund's second-biggest backer--France--saw its rating trimmed.
A downgrade could marginally curb demand for EFSF debt. It would normally make it harder for borrowers to raise funds. But for the EFSF, it would help resume plans to finish its 2012 funding program after it was forced to shelve a three-year bond sale Tuesday due to the rating discrepancy between the EFSF and France.
The EFSF--Europe's short-term bailout fund that has helped raise cash for Greece, Ireland and Portugal--said Monday that it planned to sell three-year bonds denominated in euros.
But the decision later in the day from Moody's Investors Service Inc. to strip France of its triple-A rating complicated the proposed EFSF deal, as it left the rescue fund's rating standing above that of one of its key backers. The EFSF described the decision to shelve the deal as 'technical.' Under its so-called Deeds of Guarantee rules, it was forced to pull it despite having attracted more than 3 billion euros ($3.8 billion) in investor demand.
'EFSF is currently unable to proceed until this technical aspect is resolved,' Christophe Frankel, chief financial officer and deputy chief executive officer of the EFSF, said in a statement. The fund will look to launch its three-year euro-denominated benchmark bond once it is able to satisfy its rules, Mr. Frankel added.
The Deeds of Guarantee rule requires that new issues from the EFSF over a certain maturity are fully covered by guarantees of all euro-zone countries with ratings similar to or better than the EFSF's own rating, which is Aaa at Moody's. Moody's decision to trim France's rating to a lower Aa1 took it below the EFSF's position.
Moody's Tuesday said the France downgrade will affect the ratings of the EFSF and the region's longer-term bailout fund, the European Stability Mechanism, also rated Aaa with a negative outlook.
'France is a key member of the EFSF and the ESM so in that regard [the sovereign downgrade] will affect the ratings of those entities, but I'm unable to speculate on the impact on the rating of those entities,' said Dietmar Hornung, Moody's lead analyst for France.
Analysts widely expect a downgrade for the EFSF to come soon, given that ratings companies usually follow sovereign downgrades with assessments of agencies and banks. Standard and Poor's Corp. lowered the EFSF from triple-A in January only one business day after it cut France.
The 'EFSF's Aaa had already a negative outlook and a downgrade to Aa1 seems likely,' said Frank Will and Jan King, credit analysts at Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC.
The EFSF needs to sell EUR3.5 billion worth of long-term debt before the end of 2012 to complete its EUR41.5 billion program for the year. Market watchers expect the EFSF to reach this target.
Borrowing costs for the EFSF have dropped substantially since the summer, in line with the rally seen throughout credit markets. The EFSF's three-year bond maturing in February 2015 is yielding around 0.3% Tuesday, compared to 1.1% in June, Tradeweb data show.
JPMorgan Chase & Co., Morgan Stanley, and Natixis were lead managers on the three-year deal.
Despite the blow to plans for a relatively long-term bond, the French downgrade did not limit the EFSF's ability to sell short-term debt Tuesday. The EFSF sold just under EUR2 billion of six-month treasury bills at a lower cost than at a comparable auction in October.

(Will Horobin in Paris and Sarka Halas and Nick Cawley in London contributed to this report)

Write to Art Patnaude at art.patnaude@dowjones.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires
November 20, 2012 11:35 ET (16:35 GMT)

[Pata-Hari]

O que me admira há muito tempo é a falta de critica ás contas e à situação francesa. Como sempre as agências reagem à posteriori, constatando o óbvio.

[PC05]

Tem havido mãos fortes a puxar o mercado para baixo nas últimas semanas, a questão é: quêm são elas? Não me admirava que algumas estivessem na lista acima ..... mas isto já é especular!

[VirtuaGod]

A blackrock está longa em dívida europeia, a Vanguard duvido muito que esteja curta. É provavel que alguém esteja curto, principalmente os banco americanos. Mas está longe de ser uma maioria absoluta como se de uma teoria da conspiração se tratasse.

Se tivesse que apostar que alguém estava do lado certo para ganhar $ seria no Buffett e na Blackrock por isso!!

[PC05]

Os accionistas da Moody's estão curtos

Estão? Pensava que o Buffett não entrava curto!!

São mais q as mães .... os fundos atracados à Moody's:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/mh?s=MCO+Major+Holders

[VirtuaGod]

Os accionistas da Moody's estão curtos

Estão? Pensava que o Buffett não entrava curto!!

[PC05]

Os accionistas da Moody's estão curtos, logo, precisam duma pequena ajuda!
Mas o efeito desta receita tem vindo a diminuir nos últimos tempos!

[pericos]

... e estou curto em EURGBP que veio dar uma ajuda.

[djovarius]

Boas,

Tinham-me dito isso há alguns minutos, mas não queria acreditar. enfim !! Afinal, a primeira reação dos mercados não é tão complexa. Penso que vamos ter de esperar pela abertura dos mercados europeus para ver movimentos a sério.
Ainda assim, opinião pessoal: muitos operadores já esperavam este desfecho; outros seguramente que só contavam com isto já depois do Ano Novo.

Vamos lá ver...

Abraço

dj

[Texano Bill]

E mantém outlook negativo.

Moody's decision to downgrade France's rating and maintain the negative outlook reflects the following key interrelated factors:

1.) France's long-term economic growth outlook is negatively affected by multiple structural challenges, including its gradual, sustained loss of competitiveness and the long-standing rigidities of its labour, goods and service markets.

2.) France's fiscal outlook is uncertain as a result of its deteriorating economic prospects, both in the short term due to subdued domestic and external demand, and in the longer term due to the structural rigidities noted above.

3.) The predictability of France's resilience to future euro area shocks is diminishing in view of the rising risks to economic growth, fiscal performance and cost of funding. France's exposure to peripheral Europe through its trade linkages and its banking system is disproportionately large, and its contingent obligations to support other euro area members have been increasing. Moreover, unlike other non-euro area sovereigns that carry similarly high ratings, France does not have access to a national central bank for the financing of its debt in the event of a market disruption.

At the same time, Moody's explains that France remains extremely highly rated, at Aa1, because of the country's significant credit strengths, which include (i) a large and diversified economy which underpins France's economic resiliency, and (ii) a strong commitment to structural reforms and fiscal consolidation, as reflected in recent governmental announcements, which may, over the medium term, mitigate some of the structural rigidities and improve France's debt dynamics.

[pericos]

BREAKING NEWS: Moody's Cuts France Credit Rating to Aa1 From Aaa http://www.bloomberg.com/ via @BloombergNews

Acabei de receber no twitter.